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San Francisco Condominium Real Estate Apprecation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to condominiums, the next post is specific to houses appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new condo construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.

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The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. New, high-price condo projects can make sudden, dramatic impacts on neighborhood median sales prices in the year they go on market. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If either of these situations applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.

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If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.

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$2,000,000 Under Asking In Pacific Heights…Actually $1,925,000 But Who’s Counting

If that $200,000 underbid from a few weeks ago seems like a good deal to you, have a look at this seven bedroom Pacific Heights Single Family home at 2660 Scott (you must click that link…the pictures are amazing), which was listed in September at $15,000,000 and closed last week at $13,075,000. Almost $2,000,000 under asking.
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Considering the home only last sold in 2004 for just shy of $6,000,000 I’d say the sellers are pretty thrilled (keeping in mind we don’t know how much they sunk into it, of course). IMHO the home was worth every penny of $15,000,000, so the buyers should be thrilled too. It’s a trophy home, and I’m totally jealous, as should be all of you.
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As for the rest of our weekly underbids. Here you go…the top 10 Underbids of the week.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2660 Scott Street 7/7/6 $15,000,000 $13,075,000 -12.83 %
814-816 Cole 2-4 Units $1,990,000 $1,775,000 -10.80 %
1374 Union Street 3/3.5/2 $3,350,000 $3,000,000 -10.45 %
184 London Street 3/1/0 $574,000 $520,000 -9.41 %
365 Magellan Avenue 5/3.5/2 $2,520,000 $2,350,000 -6.75 %
601 Van Ness Avenue 2/2/1 $879,000 $825,000 -6.14 %
595 Waller Street 3/2/0 $1,300,000 $1,225,000 -5.77 %
2445 Polk Street 2/2/1 $1,450,000 $1,371,150 -5.44 %
3515 Washington Street 2/2/2 $3,995,000 $3,800,000 -4.88 %
580 Prentiss Street 2/1/1 $998,000 $950,000 -4.81 %

As always, I share all of this wonderful data with you in real time on several sources:
1. The Goods
2. sfnewsletter (sign up at sfnewsletter.com)
3. theFrontSteps.com

Get this stuff bookmarked, sign up to receive via email, follow me on Facebook, Twitter @theFrontSteps, LinkedIn. Do what you gotta do to get yourself educated on our market.

And have a great day.

2660 Scott, Property Detail Page

Top 10 Underbids | Would You Believe 20% UNDER Asking In Bernal?

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The market is cooler…no doubt.. Is it seasonal, or longer term? Time will tell. As you saw last week, Overbids are still rampant, but more and more emails are coming to me, “Still Available”, “Offers as they come”, “Motivated Seller”, etc. Could we be approaching the year of the buyer?

Out of the 10 Underbids featured, 4 are multi-unit buildings, which made up the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place on our list. The #1 underbid goes to a Bernal Heights duplex – a “Tremendous Bernal Heights Fixer” to be exact, 15 Prospect Avenue, which just closed 20% under asking or at $950,000 from its $1,199,000 list price. Looks like my buddy Eddie O’Sullivan got his clients a nice little project. Well done lad…

As for the rest, this is how it stacked up.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
15 Prospect Avenue 2-4 Units $1,199,000 $950,000 -20.77 %
622-626 Buchanan Street 2-4 Units $1,399,000 $1,250,000 -10.65 %
161-165 Cook Street 2-4 Units $2,395,000 $2,150,000 -10.23 %
2287 16th Avenue 4/2/2 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 -9.94 %
301 Mission Street #49D 2/3/2 $4,588,000 $4,180,000 -8.89 %
2829-2831 Pierce Street 2-4 Units $2,970,000 $2,750,000 -7.41 %
3260 Baker Street 3/2/2 $2,999,000 $2,800,000 -6.64 %
1308 Valencia Street 4/3.5/1 $2,499,000 $2,350,000 -5.96 %
265 Minerva Street 2/1/1 $699,999 $659,000 -5.86 %
2869 Broderick Street 4/3/2 $3,500,000 $3,300,000 -5.71 %

For more Good Real Estate Stuff…check out The Goods.

3800washington

Stalefish: You Won’t Believe Your Eyes

There is a little something in our market, of which many buyers are not aware, and many agents overlook. I have long referred to them as “Stalefish“, but others refer to them as “buying opportunity” or “still available property”, or what we named (on theGoods) as the “30+ Club”. What are these, you ask?

They are, quite simply, properties on the market more than 30 days, and darnit if there aren’t quite a few gems out there that I’d love you to buy.

Getting beat up in Noe Valley? Check out 469 Valley:
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This is a 3220 square foot remodeled view home in Noe Valley…and it’s still available! Deck, garden, master suite, it has it all. Listed at $2,989,000.

Not your cup of tea? Check out 27-29 Fountain, also in Noe Valley:
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Previously listed at $2,900,000, this detached Victorian with 4 bedrooms, booming views, decks, parking, yard, and a great location is now $2,600,000! You just saved $300,000. Opportunity knocking right here.

Maybe you don’t like Noe, and you’d rather be in Cole Valley – sorry, nada. But keep checking!

You think Pacific Heights never has anything for you? Think again. This absolutely stunning home at 2701 Broadway is still there:
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“Comprised of five levels encompassing over 16,000 square feet the home includes 7 bedrooms, 7 full baths, and 4 half-baths, plus 2 kitchens, 2 family rooms, 2 offices, 3 rooftop terraces, a basketball/sport court, plus a multitude of rooms for today’s active lifestyle. 2 car garage,” and a bargain price of $39,000,000.

Okay, so maybe $39,000,000 is a bit more than you can handle, and you really don’t like basketball anyway. Maybe surfing is more your thing? Well…you’re in luck. It just so happens this little fish at 2307 40th Ave is still there:
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It’s “beautifully remodeled and updated”, close to the beach, and other “neighborhood conveniences like Walgreens” (huh?), and from what I can tell, very ready to be sold.

So if you’re getting beat out by the hordes of buyers all over the hot new listings, and you have possibly overlooked those homes that weren’t exactly perfect, you might like to give this list another glance. And if you’re an agent, you might like to send this invaluable information to your clients (branded to you, or course).

Whether you call ’em Stalefish, or otherwise, no matter how you slice it, there is opportunity out there in many shapes, sizes, and prices. Prices which, at this point, could be very negotiable.

Time to go fishing!

p.s. Wondering about the home with all the marble columns? It’s available too: 3800 Washington, $17,995,000, and it’s frickin amazing!

Stalefish, 30+ Club, Buying Opportunity: Find it all here
Battle Royale: Cole Valley Versus Noe Valley [theFrontSteps]

[Big Ass Disclaimer: Every property in this post and on the Goods 30+Club is listed as “active” on MLS. All information is deemed to be accurate, but not guaranteed.]

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From 32% In NOPA To 65% On Nevada – San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

It’s Friday, that means it’s time for the Top 10 Maximum Overbids of the week. As usual, there are some doozies, but nothing I would consider ultimate shockers like a few of the last weekly Top 10’s we’ve seen. The number one spot goes to the “Contractor’s Special” on Nevada in Bernal Heights that fetched 65% over (totally in line with market sales price, and not easy to price this type of property). The number 10 spot goes to my clients that finally won after so many years searching – 538 Baker in NOPA that was “only” 32% over asking and the winner out of 15 other offers, two of which were actually higher than ours and all cash. We had a loan. But we “won”.

Anyhow, on with the show. The Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco this past week:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
270 Nevada St 1/1.00/N/A 14 $530,000 $876,000 65.28%
866 Cayuga Ave 4/3.00/N/A 20 $928,000 $1,380,000 48.71%
27 Day St 3/1.00/N/A 43 $895,000 $1,310,000 46.37%
1271 15th Ave 1273 4/3.50/ 13 $1,795,000 $2,550,000 42.06%
307 Parker Ave 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,250,000 $1,710,000 36.80%
25 Miraloma Dr 3/2.00/N/A 10 $1,050,000 $1,420,000 35.24%
1150 Holloway Ave 2/1.00/N/A 35 $889,000 $1,200,000 34.98%
320 Castenada Ave 3/1.50/N/A 26 $1,695,000 $2,250,000 32.74%
471 Hickory St 2/1.00/N/A 5 $1,060,000 $1,400,000 32.08%
538 Baker 2/1.50/N/A 11 $948,000 $1,250,000 31.86%

On a side note, one of my listings will hopefully be closing today, and believe me when I say we knocked it out of the park. Will we make the Top 10? No, but maybe we’ll scratch into the Top 20.

If you’re curious what your property might sell for, give me a shout.

Have a great weekend!

Top 20 Overbids Delivered to Your Door (Inbox) [sfnewsletter.com]
Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? It’s Competitive Pricing [theFrontSteps]
Top 20 Underbids [sfnewsletter.com]

San Francisco Real Estate Data, Focus On The Volume On Your Block, Not The Median In Your City

“After hitting a two year low in January, the median price for single-family re-sale homes rose 18.6% in March from February. Year-over-year, the median price was off for the seventh month in a row, falling 3.1%.

After falling to their lowest level since January 2009 in February, home sales bounced back last month, which is normal for this time of year, and rose 75% from February. The 203 home sales last month were 7.7% lower than last March.”

Single Family Stats:

Condominium Stats:

One can argue the merits of medians, averages, days on market and generally just about anything in this data, and one can certainly spin it however they like. Read any number of Realtor blogs/sites and the market is gravy. Read any number of market bashing blogs and it’s all still doom and gloom. Because of this market spin that makes my head spin, I like to focus on one thing…sales volume…more specifically sales volume by district, even nano-district.

We’re coming off of a historical market thrashing. Naturally, prices are going all over the map. So what I really want to know is, if there is sales activity where my client either needs to buy or sell property. If property is moving, that is a good thing. If they’re getting stale, that is bad.

For San Francisco single family homes, we can see year over year (YoY) sales volume is down 7.7%, but up 75% compared to the month prior. Pick District 7 North (roughly Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow) and you’ll see that not only is volume up YoY (8.3%), but also up 225% on the month, whereas District 1 (roughly Richmond, Sea Cliff, Lake, Lone Mountain) is down 25% YoY, but up 50% on the month. (The fact home values in the Richmond are grouped with Sea Cliff is an entirely different nano breakdown that could further skew the numbers…ever seen a $15,000,000 home sell in the Richmond? Anyway….) In any given neighborhood, it is good that volume is up on the month (but also expected given the season), but bad that it is down on the year, because last year was a brutal year, so how could it go anywhere but up? That makes me cautiously optimistic.

For Condos we see YoY sales volume is down 7.2%, but up 28.8% on the month. That is a much more modest gain as compared to single families, and another indication that single family homes are still, and likely always will be, in more demand in San Francisco (because there are so few of them.) But look at District 5 Central (Noe Valley, Haight, Cole Valley, Glen Park…all together? Seriously?) volume is up 2.6% from last year, and 81.8% from the month prior.

The verdict? The San Francisco real estate market is both showing signs of strength, but also still many signs of weakness. You need to really take a close look at the data being presented in any articles you read (as opposed to just reading the headline and story), and you really need to figure out what the market is doing in your neighborhood, and specifically, on your block. Sales volume is (to me) most important, because it is your indication of whether properties are selling, or not. Average and median prices got pummeled, so don’t lose sleep over them. If you have to move and sell now, focus on pricing, get the highest and best price you can, and don’t stress over whether the seller 20 blocks away got more, because it could just be a result of the weather.

I’ve always said “San Francisco” data is way too generic for all of our little nano-markets, so if you have any questions about my thoughts on your ‘hood, you know where to find me.

Today, I’ll be golfing (or maybe surfing).

San Francisco Real Estate Market Trends [ReReports.com]
Why The Fuss About Noe Valley [theFrontSteps]
What’s the Real Estate Forecast For Bernal Heights [theFrontSteps]
Tour De San Francisco: Clarendon Heights [theFrontSteps]
Factoring Weather When Buying A Home In San Francisco Is Anything But Easy [theFrontSteps]

New Developments Face a New Reality in SF

 

I’ve heard from multiple sources that SF real estate is, for the most part, immune to the havoc wreaked on other parts of the US. But sales at our most recent condo complexes show that happy-smile-don’t-worry line of rhetoric is about as reliable as the clown’s was in Poltergeist (Happy Halloween!).

 

 
Socketsite reports that Symphony Towers, with only 55% of its units sold, has recently reduced prices 30%. The “Tower One Close Out,” advertised on the building’s webpage, demonstrates:
 
T-907 Penthouse studio w/built in Murphy bed & views $515,000 $419,000
T-602 1-br, Quiet courtyard location $565,000 $449,000
 
You have to wonder if those buyers among the 55% sold group are perhaps a wee bit upset. You might also wonder if you can’t, given the hint of desperation (“close out”= we really, really want to sell these goddamn condos!), get one of these units for even less than the advertised price.
 
Plus, Symphony Towers is not the only recent development cutting prices. The Hayes is also making cuts, despite its central location and uber-hip marketing (including requisite “ambient” track playing over your web tour of the property, a photo from which appears below). #610, for example, is a 1 bed/1 bath down now from $599K to $499K.  
inside "The Hayes," life is fabulously vogue

 

 
The Arterra, our newish “green” building at 300 Berry St. is also offering reduced prices, (such as #904, a 1 bed/1bath down from $649K to $599K), as is The Potrero.  
 
More good news for people who love bad news is that, according to the San Francisco Business Times, construction has been suspended at 535 Mission St: “The $100 million HOK-designed tower was put on hold earlier this month in response to worsening market conditions.”   
 
Well then. Seems like if one wants to buy right now, one should take these worsening conditions to the negotiating table. Don’t invite the clown.
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Photo credits, respectively: Scary ass clown: Brain Handles.com; The Hayes staged unit: The Hayes.com.
 
 
 

Hayes Valley 3 bed, 2 bath Pocket Listing

Debate it all you want, it’s going to continue to happen, and as long as they (the good pocket listings actually in San Francisco ;-) ) keep coming our way, we’ll keep posting them for you.

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Hayes Valley 3/2 for $929,000 on Gough at Grove.

Now Realtors, if you’d join sfnewsletter, we’d post your pocket listings to a few thousand more readers there too.

Battle Royale: Hayes Valley or Haight Ashbury, if you had to choose

We’ve been having lots of fun with the other Battles: Outer Richmond v. Outer Sunset and Pacific Heights v. Marina, so today we give you Hayes Valley or Haight Ashbury. The choice is yours. As always, we provide the data, and hope you provide the insight. Have fun. Sorry for the tech difficulties, it’s not us.

Correction on the Outer Richmond/Outer Sunset post. The charts we posted from Altos research were actually median prices for condos, not sfr’s. It is now fixed.

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Hayes Valley Stats (source: SFAR MLS)

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Haight Ashbury Stats (source: SFAR MLS)

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Haight Ashbury zip 94117 (Median: source Altos Research)

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Hayes Valley zip 94102

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When looking at these charts, keep in mind that they are based off of zip code, not property type and exact street delineations as in the San Francisco Association of Realtors District Map.

Sold? (64 Pierce)…a reader asks

Take note…flattery at the beginning of the paragraph grabs our attention and puts the email at the top of the list. Flattery at the end of the paragraph assures you can cut in line and get a quick response. A reader asks, [We answer].

64pierce.jpg“Hi-

First off, just wanted to say that I enjoy your blog.

I live near Duboce Park and I noticed a house at 64 Pierce with a For Sale sign on it (Listing from Hill & Co, I believe) and then gone in a few weeks. I can only guess that it sold very quickly. I stopped by the open house one Sunday. Nicely done, but not totally pimped out…on a nice block, a cul de sac leading into Duboce Park (which has pluses and minuses) with a listing price close to $2M. [$1,950,000]

First question…was wondering if it indeed sold and if you know any of the specifics. As a nearby homeowner, just wondering how “hot” (or not) the neighborhood is. [You had a 50/50 chance to guess correctly on whether it sold, but you chose wrong. Just be careful if you go to Vegas. It is withdrawn for the duration of summer, therefore did not sell…according to MLS. ]

Second question is that I noticed that it was not on MLS. I was wondering what your thoughts were about “To List” or “Not To List” on MLS. I am of the mindset that you want to expose your home to as many people as possible….even if it means a lot of “looky loos” stopping by the open house. MLS seems to reach a lot of people, so why potentially limit your pool of possible buyers? [It was listed on MLS 7/12/07 and withdrawn 8/2/07. Definitely “To List” on MLS is the best thing to do for maximum exposure. Even better is to list with one of us…obviously. ;-) ]

Thanks and keep up the good work. [Thanks for reading, writing in, and spreading the word!]

Doug”