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San Francisco Market Report

Britain’s June vote to exit the EU has already had an impact on the market in the US, including here in San Francisco. Mortgage rates have dropped almost a quarter of a percent, making the monthly payments on our pricey housing slightly more affordable. The result is that it will support continuing increases in sales prices, as decreases in interest rates always do. For example, a $1,000,000 loan at 3.75% costs $4,631/month, but at 3.5% you can borrow $1,032,000 for the same monthly payment. And monthly payments are what buyers focus on.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published its upbeat Economic Forecast in June which indicated continued strong job and economic growth, continued low business and mortgage interest rates (this was published prior to the vote in Britain), coupled with historically low unemployment and inflation below the Fed’s target of 2%. The conclusion is that they see Gross Domestic Product growth around 2% for the year, at a “pace consistent with moderate ongoing expansion, which we expect to continue over the next few years.”

Of interest was their findings about the cause of the lower labor force participation rates that have been occurring since 2001 that have been noted by many previous reports. It turns out that because of the considerable shift in the wage gains during this time period to the higher income households, that these households have fewer multiple earners. On the opposite end of the spectrum, lower wage earners continue to need multiple earners to make ends meet.

The Fed report hypothesizes that this is a shift that the upper-income households have made in the work-life balance and that the workforce participation in this group may remain low. It is also mimicked by the young workers in upper-income households, where labor force participation is also significantly lower than in the general population.

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San Francisco Single Family Home median prices have been hovering between $1,352,000 and $1,380,000 for the past four months since peaking at $1,400,000 in February 2016. That was the second time median prices had hit that number, first back in May of 2015. With the drop in interest rates, we could break through that median price soon because that drop from 3.75% to 3.5% finances another $45,000 in the loan amount for the same monthly payment.

The Condo/Loft Median Sales Price hit an all time high of $1,180,000 in June 2016, up 4.9% from June 2015.

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Resale Condos-Lofts jumped 59% in both Days on Market and Months Supply of Inventory compared to June 2015, but both are still in strong sellers market territory.

Single Family Homes are up slightly in Days on Market from 16 to 20 both for May to June, 2016 and from June 2015 to June 2016. Months Supply of Inventory dropped from 2.3 in May to 1.9 in June 2016 and was also down from June 2015’s 2 months. Both market indicators continue to show a strong sellers market.

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Single Family Homes New Listings dropped by 55 from May to June 2016. It was also off 61 compared to June 2015. Of additional continuing importance is that the year-to-date number of new listings is down 60 from year-to-date 2015, a 4.1% decline. This helps explain why Months Supply of Inventory is lower than last year.

Resale Condos/Lofts had the reverse trend, with 1 more new listing on the market in June than May, 2016, and 27 more new listings in June 2016 than June 2015. And, significantly, year-to-date new listings are up 167 over year-to-date 2015, which represents a 10.3% increase in inventory. This helps explain why Months Supply of Inventory and Days on Market has risen sharply for Resale Condo/Lofts.

No Mass Exit from San Francisco on the Horizon

At last month’s SFARMLS Building Boom forum, the Bay Area Council presented its latest poll of Bay Area residents, and said that the results show that a third of Bay Area residents “are likely to bolt the region in the next few years”. In truth, that is a big overstatement of the poll results.

What the poll actually asked for was a response to: “I am likely to move out of the Bay Area in the next few years.” What people answered was: 13% said they strongly agree with that statement and 21% said they somewhat agree.

That is certainly not a third of the residents saying they are likely to “bolt” in the next few years. Exactly where would they go? Jobs are here, families are here, the great weather is here. There’s a reason our population is growing – this is a fabulous place to work and live, in spite of high prices and congestion.

Bay Area Home Prices by Transit Stop

“Bay Area Home Prices by Transit Stop” Is Sure To Melt Your Brain

Perhaps the coolest (and frankly, REALLY insightful) graphics and lists to come across my desk in a really long time. Kudos to the folks over at Estately for putting this Bay Area Home Prices by Transit Stop edit together:


…and this to spin your brain around the connection between Silicon Valley and San Francisco:

“Estately Real Estate Search analyzed the last six months of home sales for houses, townhouses, and condos that were within a one-mile radius of each BART and Caltrain transit stop. We then broke them down by price per square foot.

At an average of $1,630 per square foot, Caltrain’s California Avenue stop in Palo Alto is the Bay Area’s most expensive transit stop to buy a home near. Pittsburg/Bay Point BART stop, the furthest from downtown San Francisco, is the least expensive at $219 per square foot on average.”

Chew on all that for a while on this glorious, post NBA Finals Monday.

1075 Fell Street

These Little Buggers Just Won’t Go Away | Overbids

San Francisco Real Estate Market’s Top 10 Overbids

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
251 Andover Street 3/2.00/N/A 13 $999,000 $1,426,000 42.74%
595 44th Avenue 4/3.00/N/A 38 $1,189,000 $1,690,000 42.14%
1075 Fell Street 2/1.00/ 6 $995,000 $1,335,000 34.17%
374 Sanchez Street 2/2.00/ 12 $1,195,000 $1,590,000 33.05%
819 42nd Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 32 $988,000 $1,302,000 31.78%
1806 20th Street 3/3.00/ 12 $2,195,000 $2,850,000 29.84%
1554 47th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 51 $849,000 $1,080,000 27.21%
135 Rey Street 2/1.00/N/A 11 $478,000 $605,000 26.57%
176 20th Avenue 2/1.50/ 1 $1,195,000 $1,505,000 25.94%
539 26th Avenue 3/2.00/ 26 $1,050,000 $1,300,539 23.86%
1011 23rd Street | Modern Loft In Dogpatch

1011 23rd Street #10 | Dogpatch Loft | $699,000

Dogpatch, San Francisco: according to Wikipedia “is located on the eastern side of the city, adjacent to the waterfront of the San Francisco Bay, and to the East of Potrero Hill. Its boundaries are Mariposa Street to the North, I-280 to the West, Cesar Chavez to the South, and the waterfront to the East. It contains housing, some remaining heavy industry, more recent light industry, and a new but growing arts district. In 2002 it became an officially designated historic district of the city of San Francisco….[and] there is no definitive explanation for the name

One thing we know for certain, Dogpatch has some amazing properties, and 1011 23rd Street #10 is right up there…

Situated on the corner of 23rd Street and Minnesota, this corner unit residence features soaring (approximately) 17′ ceilings, enormous windows that flood the home with natural light, an open kitchen/living area with bar seating, granite countertops, stainless appliances, fireplace, refinished hardwood floors, in unit Washer & Dyer, new carpet in the loft bedroom, and parking.

Just a short walk away from the increasingly vibrant Dogpatch shops and restaurants, and half a block away from Philz Coffee (yes, that’s a selling feature, since Philz was voted the best coffee house in San Francisco, and this is their Mothership location), living at 1011 23rd Street will afford you all of the new things San Francisco is offering up, as well as some of the old that seems to have been lost (especially some grit and character).

Come check out this wonderful loft, introduce yourself, feel the vibe, cruise the neighborhood, bring me a coffee, and I’ll hand you the keys – coffee and a few hundred thousand dollars.

Listing Details:
$699,000
1 bedroom
1.5 bathrooms
1 parking space
Corner Unit Loft
Soaring (Approx. 17′) Ceilings & Windows
Custom Window Coverings
Open Kitchen w/bar counter
Granite Countertops
Dishwasher
Hardwood Floors
New Carpet in Bedroom/loft
Fireplace
Washer & Dryer
Storage
Fitness Area
View Roof Deck
HOA Dues: $512.94/mo (Includes Water, Garbage, Webpass Internet, Building maintenance, gym, roof deck, building insurance, outside management)
A+ Dogpatch Location

Showing Schedule:
Private Showings Upon Request
Open House Sundays 2-4pm

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351

Box Factory Lofts

2169 Folsom M202 | Allied Box Factory Lofts | Mission District | $1,375,000

From your first look at the exterior of the historic Allied Box Factory, to the time you stroll through the lush courtyard to this one of a kind Live/Work loft, you will be in awe…

Originally built in 1907 as a timber factory, the Allied Box Factory was converted to a mixed-use development in 2001 with the intent of fostering a creative community. Of the Allied Box Factory’s 31 spaces, 15 of them are live/work condominiums, eight of the building’s non-residential units are used as creative studios, and six house commercial enterprises.

Situated on the second floor, unit M202 has recently been transformed from cool to ultra cool with the complete remodel of the kitchen/living/dining area that creates an ambiance second to none. Entertain guests in your modern, open kitchen complete with a 5 burner Thermador range, grey Caesarstone Countertops, Custom Walnut Cabinets, Carrera Marble Island (with seating), Thermador Dishwasher, GE Monogram Refrigerator, and original bar lighting from the previous owner, famous artist Rex Ray.

A combination of hardwood and concrete flooring with large exposed timber and open ceilings is certain to capture your attention. Extend your living area by opening the doors to your large outdoor PRIVATE patio with room for seating, dining, gardening, and of course barbecuing. Enjoy the warm weather the Inner Mission provides, soak in the city vibes and rooftop views, and live the San Francisco dream.

Not only does this amazing unit feature a completely remodeled kitchen, a designer bedroom with custom closets, hardwood floors throughout, a designer bathroom with custom mosaic tiling, washer & dryer, and deeded parking, but also a completely separate bedroom/office/studio across the hall. This room also contains gorgeous wood floors, original windows, tons of natural light from the courtyard, and is ideal for the live/work lifestyle so many of us strive to achieve.

Listing Details:
$1,375,000
2 bed
1 bath
1 car parking
Remodeled Designer Kitchen
Carrera Marble Island
Caesarstone Countertops
Custom Walnut Cabinets
Thermador Range
Private Patio
W&D
Hardwood & Concrete Floors
HOA Dues: $437.96/mo + approx $40/50/mo for common utilities
Prime Inner Mission Location
*Live/Work loft. Certain restrictions/stipulations may apply. Buyer is advised to investigate

Showing Schedule:
Private Showings Upon Request

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351

Underbid

Would You Believe, $500,000 UNDER List? | Top 10 Underbids San Francisco

I’m not sure it’s necessary to highlight any one of these transactions in particular, as in my (humble) opinion they’re all great deals. I leave it up to you to decide.

Top 10 Underbids in San Francisco

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
431 Capp Street 433 N/A N/A 2 $2,450,000 $2,200,000 -10.20 %
3614 Webster 2 2.50 1 $1,868,000 $1,700,000 -8.99 %
2170 Jackson Street 3 4.50 1 $5,700,000 $5,200,000 -8.77 %
3624 Scott Street 3 2.50 1 $2,895,000 $2,700,000 -6.74 %
1379 De Haro Street 2 1.50 2 $1,175,000 $1,100,000 -6.38 %
193 Dartmouth St 4 2.00 2 $1,199,000 $1,125,000 -6.17 %
282 Eureka Street 3 2.50 1 $3,195,000 $3,000,000 -6.10 %
35 La Grande 4 3.50 1 $1,795,000 $1,700,000 -5.29 %
10 Stanford Heights 3 2.00 1 $1,050,000 $1,000,000 -4.76 %
801 Indiana Street 2 2.50 1 $1,190,000 $1,135,000 -4.62 %

Data provided by The Goods [Agents Share Market Data Directly To Your Sphere]

District 5

May 2016 Central San Francisco Market Conditions

District 5

District 5’s (See SF Districts Map Here) April numbers continue their strong upwards trend with their highest ever median sales price of $2,287,500. Year-over-year, the median price is up 8.9%.

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Resale Condo/Loft Median Prices

Resale condo-loft median prices have resumed the downward trend that started last September with a brief uptick in January and February. hey dropped 2.3% from March to April, landing at $1,245,000, which is the lowest median sales price since April 2015. They are down 0.4% year-to-date and 9.6% since their peak at $1,377,000 September 2015.

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While Single Family Homes Days on Market inched up to 17 in April, they are still at historically low numbers.

Days on Market for Resale Condo/Lofts dropped from 19 to 16.

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Single Family Homes Months Supply of Inventory dropped slightly to 2.4 from March’s 2.5 and up from April, 2015’s 1.7.

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This April there were the same number of single family home listings as in April, 2015. Over all, there have been 136 new listings in District 5 this year, one fewer than last year.

There have been 43 fewer condo/loft listings brought on the market year-to-date in 2016 than 2015. This is a 26% drop. And this is the first time in four years that the number of new condo/loft listings was lower in April than March.

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May 2016 Market Report | San Francisco

We saw first quarter median Single Family Home prices in San Francisco jump with their biggest percentage increase (5.6%) in a decade, and in April’s numbers continue this strong upwards trend. The median price in San Francisco was $1,380,000 in April, the highest ever, and a 4.5% increase over March (yikes!).

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Resale Condo/Loft Median Prices

Resale condo-loft median prices reversed their first quarter downward trend and went up 2.2% to end at a tie with the previous high median price of $1,125,000, back in June 2015. They are up 1.5% year-to-date.

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Both the single family homes and resale condo-loft days on market inched up in April, moving from 16 to 21 days for homes and 21 to 27 days for condos.

This compares to April, 2015’s 14 days and 18 days. So, up a bit from March and up a bit from April, 2015, but still incredibly low days on market.

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Single family homes months supply of inventory is up slightly to 2.3 from March’s 2.2 and a little above April, 2015’s 1.8.

Likewise, for resale condo/lofts, months supply inched up to 2.6 and over last years’ 1.7. It is the fourth consecutive months of rising inventory, something to be watched, but still a strong seller’s market.

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In April 2016, there were 15 more single family homes listed for sale than a year ago, and this was the first month this year to exceed the number of listings in 2015. We are still down slightly, 1.5%, in the number of new listings homes year-to-date over 2015.

Resale condo-lofts also saw fewer new listings in April 2016 than in 2015, however, overall there have been more new condo/loft listings in 2016 than in 2015, a rise of 6.7%. This helps explain the longer Days on Market and higher months of inventory.

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The best way to get answers to any questions you have about our market or timing a successful sale…contact me.

beach cottage

The Itsy Bitsy Teenie Weenie Million Dollar Beach Bungalow

It’s official…in San Francisco a million bucks barely buys you an (almost on the beach) beach bungalow…actually you need $1,050,000…and depending on what size waves you’re thinking of surfing at the most popular surf spot north of San Diego, you’ll want to consider ultra custom space-saving racks.

In case you’re wondering, it was listed at $699,000. It is close enough to catch the blowing Springtime Sand, so I guess you can call it a “beach bungalow”.

Surf is not up this weekend in San Francisco (Surprise!), but surely you know a friend with a boat. Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Top 20 Overbids, Underbids, and so much more, right here on The Goods.

3434 Rivera, Street, San Francisco [Property Detail Page]

3610 Washington | William Wurster

William Wurster Mid-Century Masterpiece Sells for $11,300,000 | Pacific Heights

It’s not everyday a home sells for $3,800,000 above asking…actually in San Francisco we hardly bat an eye at this anymore, especially when paired with buzzwords #PacificHeights and #MidCentury. It also helps to be an extremely rare property in a one of a kind location:

William Wurster Masterpiece with timeless mid-century contemporary design. The unique home with wonderful public rooms boasts sweeping Bay & Golden Gate Views and a Sheltered South facing Tommy Church Garden. 4 Bedrooms + library. 4 Baths. 2 Half Baths. 4 Fireplaces.Garage.Carport.Entry reveals a beautiful private garden & covered breezeway leading to the front door. The Reception Foyer looks to the Bay & features Wurster signature staircase. Elevator, Coat Closet, Powder Room. Grand LR is well-integrated with garden. Large formal DR looks out to GG Bridge. Kitchen flows to breakfast room. Guest suite & family room. Upstairs Central Hall opens to South Deck. Master suite & Library have Expansive Bay Views. 2 more beds with en-suite baths

Listed at $7,500,000
Sold for $11,300,000
$2,000 per square foot