San Francisco Real Estate Market Report November 2018

Midterms have passed and the Democrats have taken back control of the House, effective January 1st. It remains to be seen if they will attempt to reinstate full deductibility of homeowners’ mortgage interest, which could help keep San Francisco home prices trending upwards.

Over the past four weeks, the stock market has had significant gyrations, including a 1200 point decline in the last two weeks of October which capped that month’s worst performance in seven years. This volatility may negatively impact buyers who depend on stocks for their downpayment.

The economy remains robust and the Federal Reserve Bank is expected to continue raising interest rates to keep it from overheating, resulting in inflation. These rises will be a counterweight to rising home prices because rising interest rates dampen buyers’ purchasing power.

In San Francisco, inventory rose very slightly from last year for both single family homes and condo/loft/TICs, but the market remains very solidly in the sellers’ drivers seat.

Single Family Homes:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,550,000 is up 8.8% over last year’s*.

Year-to-date, new listings are up 5.1% while sales are down 1.5%.

October’s inventory of 2.5 months is 13.6% higher than in 2017.

82% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 113%.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,199,633 is up 6.2% over last year’s*.

Year-to-date, new listings are up 5.6% while sales are up 7.7%.

October’s inventory of 3 months is 3.4% higher than in 2017.

68% of condo/loft/TIC’s sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 106%.

All of this said, it is my hunch these numbers do not yet reflect the incredibly quiet and wishy-washy past couple of months. There are still many properties yet to get in contract, and many yet to close…still more pulled off the market. By all accounts our market is still great, but it has definitely shifted.

Overbids…They Still Exist…In Large Quantity…And Still Baffle

It’s been a while since I’ve broken down the top 10 Overbids for you, and although I suspect I’ll be posting Overbids until I retire (I’ve been doing overbids already at least 15 years), the market is doing something weird at the moment…so you should be keeping your eyes on the Recent Sales and Underbids too. It’s getting interesting…

That said, here you go:
Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
556 Mississippi Street 2/2.00/N/A 11 $959,000 $1,487,500 55.11%
1274 Shafter Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 17 $599,950 $850,000 41.68%
1946 42nd Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 14 $995,000 $1,400,000 40.70%
1747 42nd Avenue 0/1.00/N/A 12 $999,000 $1,353,000 35.44%
666 Madrid Street 4/3.00/N/A 34 $998,000 $1,350,000 35.27%
746 Church Street 2/1.00/ 10 $1,395,000 $1,856,250 33.06%
170 Guerrero Street 2/1.00/E 5 $949,000 $1,250,000 31.72%
191 Dublin 4/3.00/N/A 29 $998,888 $1,300,000 30.14%
240 Hartford Street A 1/1.00/ 5 $925,000 $1,200,000 29.73%
60 Coleridge Street 3/2.00/N/A 14 $1,159,000 $1,500,000 29.42%

Looking for an amazing property on an amazing street? Check out 1662 Page, the property so many seek, and is oddly still available and open this weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone!

Bernal Heights Home On Large Lot Gets 12 Offers, Sells In 5 Days

We had to put the battle armor on to get this one (232 Precita in Bernal Heights)…with 12 offers, and negotiations happening at light speed. We offered much lower than the final sales price (given the uncertainty in the market), but had to change our thinking, and change it fast. (This is exactly what I was talking about in my previous post about some properties not getting offers, while others get many multiples.) It was ultimately too nice of a location and lot for my client to pass up. Congratulations to you, sir…well done. It is a great house with major potential.


From the marketing remarks:

Charming 1930’s era Spanish Mediterranean style home with unprecedented 120′ deep x 56′ wide L-shaped lot, offering the most amazing back yard potential you’ll ever find in Bernal Heights! And just a block from beautiful dynamic Precita Park. Versatile, highly desirable floor plan. Living Room with wood burning fireplace, Formal dining room, Kitchen with breakfast nook -all could be opened up for incredible open Living/Dining/Kitchen experience! Two large bedrooms & delightful period bath w exquisite tilework, separate shower & tub. Parquet wood floors. Interior stairs to large home office & guest suite, w obvious further expansion potential. Live the dream & ultimate CA indoor/outdoor lifestyle with fruit orchard, potting shed & Downtown View backdrop! Premium N.Slope location, where Mission meets Bernal.

Property was listed by Vanguard Properties. I represented the buyer. If you want the play by play on how this deal went down, give me a shout.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Shifts – Will It Last?

It’s an interesting time in the San Francisco real estate market. If you’re one with the ocean, it’s like being caught between the in and out-going tides (the slack). We made it through the Summer Doldrums, hit the Fall listing frenzy and now we are stuck. Still many multiples of properties flying off the shelf and being fiercely competed, and still others languishing on the market without any takers. For those of us that list properties for sale, the offer date is no longer guaranteed to produce multiple offers, the number of emails and “insider” network posts of “still available” homes have risen dramatically, and general buzz and traffic to listings and open houses has definitely declined…mostly. I say mostly, because like I said earlier, some places are still crazy nuts.

As I dig through the data available to me, I was just about to say the market has totally shifted, and then I got stuck on this chart (from Compass’ market report) by way of the data guru Patrick Carlisle, and it reminded me to be patient, and not panic:

As you can see it goes back to 2012, and as you can see there is a definite pattern. The only difference this time around is in this chart, which shows a 28% increase year over year of new listings compared to last…more inventory, which means it will take longer to get through it, and once we get through it, what will the future hold? There is also a ton of other data that takes us way back in time, so I encourage you to check it out.

There is a lot of talk that we may have hit a peak, and there is still other talk from my lender contacts that we have another solid Spring selling season ahead of us before things get really interesting. We are in the midst of mid-term elections (GO VOTE!) and there is definitely weird and toxic fodder coming out of the White House, which could hose us all, but all in all I say it’s still too close to call whether or not the market is making a permanent shift, or just a temporary hiccup like we’ve definitely seen in years past.

I’m happy to chat market, seasonality, prime time to sell and buy, and what your property might currently be worth, just give me a shout.

In the meantime, I have a couple amazing homes for sale that you absolutely must check out:
An awesome Single Family in Cole Valley at 715 Cole (NOT ON MLS); and a spectacular Victorian condominium in the Haight at 1662 Page. Had you been following theFrontSteps you would have already known about these and perhaps even had a chance to snag 215 Cole, which I just sold quietly off market for $1,500,000. I keep telling you, follow my site, and be on my radar and good things will come your way.

SOLD OFF MARKET | NoPa Condo @215 Cole St. | $1,500,000

Had to just do a quick blog post to congratulate the buyers and sellers of this sweet little gem I just sold off market.

Another amazing off market opportunity for my dear readers…not going on MLS for a few weeks, but definitely available for immediate purchase and viewing.

Like some of my other listings at the moment, this is off market, so we don’t have pictures to share. You gotta see it in person.

Haight Ashbury Victorian Flat Hits MLS Asking $1,700,000 – Wow Factor At 11

If you don’t get the Spinal Tap reference…it’s high time you watch Spinal Tap.

Anywho…my newest listing to hit the market.

Grand scale, turn of the century Victorian Condominium on a coveted block in the Haight / Ashbury area of San Francisco with approximately 1630 square feet of living space, original wood floors, period details, ~12 foot high ceilings, renovated kitchen & bath, two fireplaces, in unit washer & dryer, 1 car parking, exclusive use storage, shared yard, and great natural light.


A property so many seek, yet can’t find is here and available..it’s true. This three bedroom, one bath home is filled with charm and details of years past. From the century old wainscoting, to the light fixtures, picture rails, and triple crown molding, 1662 Page will delight even the most discerning Victorian fan, and wow every buyer with a modern, open kitchen, breakfast porch, beautiful split bath with radiant heat, well preserved wood floors, updated foundation and seismic strengthening, as well as parking for one car.

This charming turn of the century home enjoys a wonderful central location just steps away from all of your shopping needs and a growing number of popular restaurants, and is situated ideally for access to Golden Gate Park and Buena Vista Parks, Cole Valley, NoPa, freeways to points North, South, and East, and of course the famous Haight/Ashbury.

Property Details:
List Price: $1,700,000
1630 square feet
3 bedrooms
1 Remodeled bathroom w/ Designer Shower and Soaking tub, Radiant Floor Heating
Remodeled Split Bath (a.k.a. WC) with Toto toilet and Radiant Floor Heating
Modern Eat-in Kitchen
Granite Countertops
Breakfast Patio
Wine Fridge
Viking Gas Range
Bosch Dishwasher
Wood Floors
2 Gas Fireplaces
2 Living Rooms, one could be Formal Dining Room
New Rheem Hot Water Heater
15 New Double Paned Custom Wood Windows
Period Details
High Ceilings
Period Lighting
New in unit Washer & Dryer
1 car parking
Large Deeded Storage Room
Shared Yard and Garden Room, Fire Pit, & Grill
Extensive Seismic Retrofit completed 2016
HOA Fees $240/mo. (Includes Water, Garbage, Building Insurance, Common Electric and repairs.)
Dog okay (Limit 2)

Showing Schedule:
Open Saturday & Sunday 1-4pm

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351
DRE#01339386
For more information, a private tour, or to chat about your property, you can contact me via the info above, or try the contact form below.

San Francisco Real Estate Micro Market Update – Plus 3 Off Market Gems

Like a bear coming out of hibernation, the San Francisco real estate market is waking up from its Summer slumber and new inventory is flooding the market. As of the time of this post, this week alone San Francisco has seen 254 new listings (of all property types) hit the market since Monday. That’s more than double the rolling average for the months of June, July, and August. The linked tear sheet is as basic as you get, but it will give you an indication of what’s out there. As soon as the data dump is complete, you’ll be able to see all of these Hot New Listings on The Goods.

All Summer long, no matter where I was, or what I was doing, people ask “So how’s the market in San Francisco?” It’s almost as common as “Is it foggy in SF?” And my answer to them has become canned, “It’s slow in places, white hot in others, and everyone is waiting until after Labor Day, so let’s see what happens then. And yes, it’s foggy…every day.”

It’s very hard to paint an accurate picture of a market when I know sellers are holding out until after Labor Day, and buyers are waiting in the shadows, or traveling to exotic locales to escape the fog. It’s not possible to know if it’s a broader slowdown, or just the typical Summer Doldrums as I like to call them.

I have about 15 buyers, and 5 listings. Three of those 15 buyers are looking for the same thing, and as it stands today, there is only one good choice for all of them. Multiply that by the other Realtors working the same tight city market, and I can already see a recipe for Overbids on many properties in prime locations, high demand, and continued low supply. I’ll go out on a limb and say I suspect things to really heat up this Fall, so if you’re still thinking of selling, now is a damn good time.

If you’re looking for a place, I suspect you’re going to continue to need a thick skin and patience. As I say to everyone that I meet, get on my radar as there is an entire world of off market activity to increase your chances of buying success, and I’m always here to help make your life easier. Cases in point, I am bringing 1010 Cole Street back on the market any minute (painted, staged, $150,000 less, and looking amazing!), 318 Connecticut just hit the wire, and 215 Cole, 715 Cole, and 1720 Larkin are in my pocket, ready to be sold.

Happy Fall. See you out there, and make sure you introduce yourself.

First Look | Top Floor Potrero Hill View Residence

Because you follow theFrontSteps (if you don’t, you can follow here), you get the first peak inside this charming and perfectly located Potrero Hill view residence, and if you like, you can even make an offer before we hit MLS (this Friday).

You can expect a market update from me soon as we climb out of the typical Summer hibernation, and we see how the looming flood of inventory gets snatched up. Until then, enjoy the Fog, and check my Featured Properties (including three off market gems) for some things you may have missed while you, and the rest of San Francisco were bouncing to techno at Burning Man…

Situated in the heart-center of Potrero Hill, and just steps to 18th Street shops and restaurants, this top floor two bedroom, one bathroom flat with sweeping Northwest views from Corona Heights to City Hall is not to be missed.

NOPA Is Calling You!

Another amazing off market opportunity for my dear readers…not going on MLS for a few weeks, but definitely available for immediate purchase and viewing.

Like some of my other listings at the moment, this is off market, so we don’t have pictures to share. You gotta see it in person.

Property Details:
215 Cole St
Condominium
Price: $TBD, but likely around $1.5ish
3 bedroom
2 bath
Master Suite w/ built in closets and en suite bath
Hickory Wood Floors
Open Living/Dining/Kitchen area
Bay Windows
Bar Counter with Seating
High Ceilings
Gas Fireplace
1 car parking
Storage
Shared Yard

Great Location close to NOPA, Haight, GG Park, USF, Koret Center, Whole Foods, De Young Museum, and easy commute to N,S,E and W locations

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351
DRE#01339386
For more information, a private tour, or to chat about your property, you can contact me via the info above, or try the contact form below.

Off Market Cole Valley Victorian Single Family Home

I have the home you have sought for so long. We will not be going to MLS anytime soon, so consider yourself lucky you found yourself on theFrontSteps. Since this is a totally off market and “pocket” listing, we have no pictures to share. Get yourself in for a look, it’s as simple as that.

Property Details:
715 Cole St.
Price: TBD, but definitely more than $2.5M
3 bed, 1 bath upstairs
Gigantic Master Bedroom
Fireplace in master bedroom
Shower over tub
Separate WC
Radiant heat
Deck / landing off North bedroom
Amazing Wood Floors w/ beautiful detailing
Victorian Details Everywhere
High Ceilings
Fireplace in living room
Formal entry with grand staircase
Bath on main level with shower over tub
Original tile in baths
Formal dining room
Large windows
Natural Light
Newly built downstairs area w radiant heat
Storage
Washer & Dryer
Large kitchen faces west
Stairs/landing off kitchen lead to large landscaped yard designed by Flora Grubb
Fruit trees
Landscape Lighting
Drip System
2 car parking
Updated foundation
Fully detached on both sides

It’s definitely as nice as it sounds.

Shown by appointment only.

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351
DRE#01339386
For more information, a private tour, or to chat about your property, you can contact me via the info above, or try the contact form below.