Let me tell you what I really did…
There is always a lot of talk around town about how “easy” it is to sell a property in San Francisco, and that all we (Realtors) have to do is sign up a listing, put a sign out front, and the hordes of buyers will come marching through the door, offer oodles over asking, beg to buy the property, offer up their children as security deposit, and seller sells it for a mint.
Not so, and to prove you need us (particularly theFrontSteps) to market your property for sale in San Francisco, I’d like to share some “before & after” shots of recent property transformations.
If that $200,000 underbid from a few weeks ago seems like a good deal to you, have a look at this seven bedroom Pacific Heights Single Family home at 2660 Scott (you must click that link…the pictures are amazing), which was listed in September at $15,000,000 and closed last week at $13,075,000. Almost $2,000,000 under asking.
Considering the home only last sold in 2004 for just shy of $6,000,000 I’d say the sellers are pretty thrilled (keeping in mind we don’t know how much they sunk into it, of course). IMHO the home was worth every penny of $15,000,000, so the buyers should be thrilled too. It’s a trophy home, and I’m totally jealous, as should be all of you.
As for the rest of our weekly underbids. Here you go…the top 10 Underbids of the week.
|2660 Scott Street||7/7/6||$15,000,000||$13,075,000||-12.83 %|
|814-816 Cole||2-4 Units||$1,990,000||$1,775,000||-10.80 %|
|1374 Union Street||3/3.5/2||$3,350,000||$3,000,000||-10.45 %|
|184 London Street||3/1/0||$574,000||$520,000||-9.41 %|
|365 Magellan Avenue||5/3.5/2||$2,520,000||$2,350,000||-6.75 %|
|601 Van Ness Avenue||2/2/1||$879,000||$825,000||-6.14 %|
|595 Waller Street||3/2/0||$1,300,000||$1,225,000||-5.77 %|
|2445 Polk Street||2/2/1||$1,450,000||$1,371,150||-5.44 %|
|3515 Washington Street||2/2/2||$3,995,000||$3,800,000||-4.88 %|
|580 Prentiss Street||2/1/1||$998,000||$950,000||-4.81 %|
And have a great day.
San Francisco Real Estate Report, December 2015 Market Update.
– Heading into the Holiday Slowdown after an Interesting Autumn Market
– Median home prices, over-bidding, housing affordability, luxury home sales, the new-home construction pipeline, and comparing the Shanghai and S&P 500 stock indices
Median sales prices in October and November jumped back up to levels similar to the spring peak selling season. It’s important to remember that median prices are not a perfect reflection of changes in fair market value: They often fluctuate due to seasonal inventory and buyer-profile trends, as well as issues such as an influx of new-construction listings. It is the longer-term trend that is most meaningful – however we can say with confidence that there was clearly no significant “crash” in prices this past autumn.
One indication of the heat of the market is the extent to which sales prices are bid up over asking prices. As is not untypical, the market becomes less competitive in November as it heads into the winter holidays. Still, an average sales price 6% over asking price would be considered crazy-hot in any other market in the country (though one also has to adjust for the fact that serious underpricing has become a not uncommon listing strategy in the SF market).
This chart based on S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index data illustrates the seasonality of home price appreciation in the past 4 years: surging in our feverish spring selling seasons, and then generally plateauing through the rest of the year. Note that Case-Shiller looks at home prices in a totally different way than median sales price trends, and probably reflects changes in fair market value more accurately. Case-Shiller Index numbers refer back to a January 2000 value of 100, thus the current Index reading for higher-priced Bay Area homes of 217 signifies home prices 117% above January 2000.
As we enter the winter holiday market slowdown, the next real indication of the direction of the market will come in the first quarter of 2016. Will spring 2016 repeat the overheated, high demand/ low supply frenzies of previous springs or has the market finally reached a longer term plateau or even an affordability inflection point? We shall soon know more.
In 2015 YTD, the dominant price segment for home sales in San Francisco was $1,000,000 to $1,499,000. As seen in the first chart above, the median sales prices for both condos and houses fall within this range. Note the change from just two years ago.
San Francisco Luxury Home Market
The high-end home market is the most seasonal segment in the city (as well as the most sensitive to sudden, large, negative movements in the financial markets). Market activity starts to plunge in November, hits its nadir in December, begins to pick up in the first quarter and then usually hits its peak in spring. Much of the center of gravity in the luxury market has been shifting in recent years from the city’s prestige northern neighborhoods to other districts of the city, such as the greater Noe Valley area and the South Beach/Yerba Buena district. This is not to say that the northern districts are not still both very expensive and considered highly desirable, and the greater Pacific Heights area still dominates the market for the most expensive houses in the city, i.e. those selling for $5m and more.
After the semi-hysteria – already half forgotten – that erupted in late August and September regarding the Chinese stock market and its impact on the U.S. stock market and economy, and possibly the Bay Area housing market, we thought it interesting to take a look back at how it has played out so far.
It is widely expected that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, probably by some minimal increment, but for the time being, as of the first week of December, rates have remained below 4%.
In November, we issued two mini-reports, one on Bay Area housing affordability and another on San Francisco new housing construction. Below are the featured charts:
I’ll continue to keep an eye on things for you, if you continue to read it.
Expect much lighter than usual blogging for the rest of the year, and don’t be surprised if theFrontSteps goes under construction.
Contact me today for a free property valuation, or to get you set up on my buyer system.
The market is cooler…no doubt.. Is it seasonal, or longer term? Time will tell. As you saw last week, Overbids are still rampant, but more and more emails are coming to me, “Still Available”, “Offers as they come”, “Motivated Seller”, etc. Could we be approaching the year of the buyer?
Out of the 10 Underbids featured, 4 are multi-unit buildings, which made up the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place on our list. The #1 underbid goes to a Bernal Heights duplex – a “Tremendous Bernal Heights Fixer” to be exact, 15 Prospect Avenue, which just closed 20% under asking or at $950,000 from its $1,199,000 list price. Looks like my buddy Eddie O’Sullivan got his clients a nice little project. Well done lad…
As for the rest, this is how it stacked up.
|15 Prospect Avenue||2-4 Units||$1,199,000||$950,000||-20.77 %|
|622-626 Buchanan Street||2-4 Units||$1,399,000||$1,250,000||-10.65 %|
|161-165 Cook Street||2-4 Units||$2,395,000||$2,150,000||-10.23 %|
|2287 16th Avenue||4/2/2||$1,388,000||$1,250,000||-9.94 %|
|301 Mission Street #49D||2/3/2||$4,588,000||$4,180,000||-8.89 %|
|2829-2831 Pierce Street||2-4 Units||$2,970,000||$2,750,000||-7.41 %|
|3260 Baker Street||3/2/2||$2,999,000||$2,800,000||-6.64 %|
|1308 Valencia Street||4/3.5/1||$2,499,000||$2,350,000||-5.96 %|
|265 Minerva Street||2/1/1||$699,999||$659,000||-5.86 %|
|2869 Broderick Street||4/3/2||$3,500,000||$3,300,000||-5.71 %|
For more Good Real Estate Stuff…check out The Goods.
It only took seven months, but in the end, it got there. SOLD for $440,000 UNDER asking!
You read that correctly, this 6-bedroom single family home in Mission Terrace at 100 Delano Avenue just closed $440,000 below the original (back in March) asking price of $1,600,000. After a price chop to $1.5, then $1.4, then again to $1.3, it appears the Lord finally took pity on this property and landed it on top of this week’s Top 10 Underbids. With plenty of extra space, awesome curtains, wow-tastic wallpaper, and your own “personal chapel” how could you not want to move right in!?
As for the other buyer scores, here you go:
|100 Delano Avenue||6/3/3||$1,300,000||$1,160,000||-10.77 %|
|355 Bryant Street||2/2/1||$2,345,000||$2,100,000||-10.45 %|
|18 Palm Avenue||4/3.5/2||$4,995,000||$4,525,000||-9.41 %|
|1264 Bush Street||1/1/0||$649,000||$590,000||-9.09 %|
|78 Gladys Street||3/2/0||$1,195,000||$1,100,000||-7.95 %|
|1437 47th Avenue 1437A||2 unit||$1,275,000||$1,175,000||-7.84 %|
|601 4th Street #321||1/1/1||$1,499,000||$1,400,000||-6.60 %|
|2040 Franklin Street #506||0/1/1||$575,000||$540,000||-6.09 %|
|2730 Broderick Street||4/3.5/1||$5,850,000||$5,500,000||-5.98 %|
|301 Mission Street #51D||2/3/1||$4,495,000||$4,250,000||-5.45 %|
You see…”deals” can still be had in San Francisco.
These Broker Metrics charts track weekly number of Active Listings over the past 6 months (early May to mid-October):
SFD, under $1m Active Listings – weekly inventory just below 6 month average, about same level as spring, lowest number of active listings since early July.
Condo, under $1m Active Listings – autumn inventory levels well above (about 25%) spring-summer levels
SFD, $1m – $1.499m Active Listings – weekly inventory just fell below 6-month average
Condo/Co-op, $1m – $1.499m – autumn inventory running far above (about 40%) spring-summer inventory levels
SFD, $1.5m – $1.999m Active Listings – autumn inventory levels well above (about 30%) spring-summer levels
Condo/Co-op, $1.5m – $1.999m – autumn inventory levels well above spring-summer levels
SFD, $2m – 2.499m Active Listings – autumn listing inventory running well above (33%) 6-month average, and equal to mid-May levels
Condo/Co-op, $2m+ Active Listings – inventory running about 25% above 6-month average, and well above spring-summer levels
SFD, $2.5m+ Active Listings – inventory running about 29% above 6-month average, and about 20% above May levels
SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES DECLINED 3 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER FROM PREVIOUS MONTH, UP 15 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR
Resale Inventory Surpasses Two Months of Supply for First Time in Two Years
According to The Mark Company Trend Sheet
San Francisco – October 14, 2015 – San Francisco condominium prices declined 3 percent from the previous month according to the Condominium Pricing Index released today by The Mark Company, a leading urban residential marketing and sales firm.
The San Francisco Condominium Pricing Index fell to $1,294 per-square-foot in September, retreating from the $1,340 per square foot record set the previous month, but remains 15 percent higher than September 2014. Monthly appreciation during this time of year is typically low or even negative.
There are approximately 656 new condominiums for sale in San Francisco, marking the lowest inventory level since March of this year. The scarcity of inventory will be eased slightly when sales commence at several developments during the fourth quarter of this year, including 41 units at 450 Hayes in Hayes Valley and 34 units at LuXe in Pacific Heights.
Prices for resale condominiums also decreased slightly to an average of $953 per-square-foot, falling 2 percent compared to August. Despite the recent decrease, prices are still 8 percent higher than one year ago. The number of resales is trending downward, falling 19% since last month, and 25% year-over-year.
“There are currently 395 active resale condominium listings in San Francisco, representing 2.4 months of supply. This is the first time in over two years that active inventory has increased to more than two months of supply, however inventory is still extremely low,” said Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company. Six months of inventory is considered to be the equilibrium between a buyers and seller’s market.
New construction absorption (the number of new condominiums placed into contract), fell approximately 25 percent in September, following a decline of 39 percent in August. “Slowdown is typical in the late summer, however absorption is still 36 percent higher than the same month one year ago,” noted Kennelly.
The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet (available at http://www.themarkcompany.com), is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.
“After having mostly settled into our new home, it’s finally time write a few words about our realtor – Alex Clark. Whether you are looking to buy or sell (and we used Alex for both), Alex knows the San Francisco market and how to get a deal closed, regardless of how stiff the competition might seem.
On the buy-side, Alex helped us get a true gem of single family home in the Inner Richmond by working patiently, but persuasively, with the Seller, who was hesitant to let go of the house after having it in the family for over forty years. But by making a personal connection with the Seller’s agent, and nudging us gently to get to where we needed to be to make a winning offer, we came out on top. And if you are familiar with how competitive the San Francisco real estate market can be and how quickly it’s moving, that’s no small achievement. On the sell-side, Alex’s knowledge of the neighborhood, comps, and how to market the property to generate packed open houses, helped us get the most for our condo. Bottom line – we crushed the closet comp listing by 20%, which we attribute directly to Alex’s understanding of the market.
Alex worked tirelessly to help us make both our buying and selling goals a reality, and above it all, he’s a genuinely good guy and easy to get along with.
Thanks Alex!”- Amanda & Sergio
You’re so very welcome! Thank you for putting your trust in me, and thank you for the great testimonial. Since I know you’re not moving for the next 50 years, I look forward to helping your friends and family when it comes time for them to buy/sell. Pray for snow!
I’m pleased to announce my clients have successfully sold their Richmond District top floor condominium for $1,200,000 (listed at $949,000), or as I like to point out, $200,000 more than the most recent, closest competitor property on 26th Ave that listed almost the same day as we did.
It’s no coincidence we knocked it out of the park. It was strategy, patience, perseverance, and knowing how to finesse each offer (we received five) to their highest and best without them walking away. Congratulations to my clients that just set the bar for Central Richmond condos – the last area of the city you can still find a deal. Let the migration begin.