San Francisco Single Family Real Estate Appreciation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to houses, the next post is specific to condominiums appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new home construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.



The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas, especially in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If this situation applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.






As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market don’t hesitate to ask.

If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.


$2,000,000 Under Asking In Pacific Heights…Actually $1,925,000 But Who’s Counting

If that $200,000 underbid from a few weeks ago seems like a good deal to you, have a look at this seven bedroom Pacific Heights Single Family home at 2660 Scott (you must click that link…the pictures are amazing), which was listed in September at $15,000,000 and closed last week at $13,075,000. Almost $2,000,000 under asking.
Considering the home only last sold in 2004 for just shy of $6,000,000 I’d say the sellers are pretty thrilled (keeping in mind we don’t know how much they sunk into it, of course). IMHO the home was worth every penny of $15,000,000, so the buyers should be thrilled too. It’s a trophy home, and I’m totally jealous, as should be all of you.
As for the rest of our weekly underbids. Here you go…the top 10 Underbids of the week.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2660 Scott Street 7/7/6 $15,000,000 $13,075,000 -12.83 %
814-816 Cole 2-4 Units $1,990,000 $1,775,000 -10.80 %
1374 Union Street 3/3.5/2 $3,350,000 $3,000,000 -10.45 %
184 London Street 3/1/0 $574,000 $520,000 -9.41 %
365 Magellan Avenue 5/3.5/2 $2,520,000 $2,350,000 -6.75 %
601 Van Ness Avenue 2/2/1 $879,000 $825,000 -6.14 %
595 Waller Street 3/2/0 $1,300,000 $1,225,000 -5.77 %
2445 Polk Street 2/2/1 $1,450,000 $1,371,150 -5.44 %
3515 Washington Street 2/2/2 $3,995,000 $3,800,000 -4.88 %
580 Prentiss Street 2/1/1 $998,000 $950,000 -4.81 %

As always, I share all of this wonderful data with you in real time on several sources:
1. The Goods
2. sfnewsletter (sign up at sfnewsletter.com)
3. theFrontSteps.com

Get this stuff bookmarked, sign up to receive via email, follow me on Facebook, Twitter @theFrontSteps, LinkedIn. Do what you gotta do to get yourself educated on our market.

And have a great day.

2660 Scott, Property Detail Page

682 Duncan

Maximum Overbids Of the Week | $625,000 Over In Noe Valley | 291 Square Foot Studio Sells For $415,000

And the winner is…682 Duncan for a mere $625,000 over asking, and just shy of $1600 per square foot:
682 Duncan

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
682 Duncan Street 3/2.00/N/A 12 $1,050,000 $1,675,000 59.52%
430 Nevada Street 2/1.00/N/A 27 $699,000 $1,065,000 52.36%
1520 15th Street 2/1.00/N/A 22 $799,000 $1,175,000 47.06%
2219 25th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 13 $949,000 $1,380,000 45.42%
850 35th Avenue 2/1.50/N/A 38 $950,000 $1,380,000 45.26%
1994 45th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 28 $799,000 $1,130,000 41.43%
195 7th Street 0/1.00/306 38 $299,000 $415,000 38.80%
1257 Union Street 2/1.00/ 12 $1,195,000 $1,650,000 38.08%
1269 27th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 19 $1,108,000 $1,510,000 36.28%
136 Bradford Street 4/2.00/N/A 43 $899,000 $1,225,000 36.26%

Did you notice that little (291 square feet) sale for $415,000 at 195 7th Street?

As many of you know, I’ve been doing this Maximum Overbid feature for about 12 years running, maybe more. It started on sfnewsletter…it actually started sfnewsletter. Then I started posting the Maximum Overbids here, sometimes regularly, sometimes not. As much as these stats are great information, and surely get you scratching your head, they are not an indication of the market as a whole, and I know that very well. That is why I share not only the top 20 Overbids, but also Underbids, as well as properties still on the market more than 30 days. I share new listings of the past two weeks, as well as recent sales…not just overbids. I share this awesome information via The Goods. And in case you haven’t noticed, I share a sh*t ton of other data too.

I do all of this so you, the buyer, the seller, the renter, the owner, the neighbor, the landlord, the whatever you are, can educate yourself on properties and activity in your area. I’ve always felt it is important for you to know as much, or more than me about the market. If you appreciate this information, I encourage you to contact me when you, or anyone you know, are ready to buy or sell real estate. I encourage you to sign up for sfnewsletter, and I encourage you to follow this blog via email (opt-in form is below).

I am an expert at marketing property to get top dollar, and an expert at getting offers accepted for buyers, and I’d love to work with you. I’m no good at juggling and basketball, so don’t ask me to help you with that.

Have a great weekend!

Alex Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group

1487 Chestnut Living Room to Dining Room

Testimonial | “Alex Killed It On Both Deals”

It is so nice to make people happy. That’s the best part of what I do, and getting an amazing pat on the back from my clients is icing on the cake. I grabbed this from my client’s Facebook post to all of their friends in order to share it with you:

Many of you know that Linda and I recently sold 1487 Chestnut and bought [XXXX] Chestnut. What you probably don’t know about is the guy who made it happen for us: Alexander Clark
Alex killed it on both deals. He knew exactly how to market 1487 and held our hands while we dealt with the stress of moving out, staging the place, showing it, taking offers, and dealing with the buyer. In the end we got about 25% more than we expected, giving us the opportunity to reach a lot higher for our next place.
On the flipside, Alex was incredibly patient while we waited for the right opportunity to buy (we can be a bit picky…). He never pushed us to look outside of our preferred neighborhoods even though inventory was nonexistent, and even when a few less-than-perfect places came along he didn’t lobby for bids. Ironically, by not gunning for the quick sale, that’s exactly what he ended up getting – we won the first place we went for!
So if you’re thinking about doing a real estate deal in San Francisco [insert joke about market here], Alex is your man. Check out his work on theFrontSteps.com and ping me if you want an intro.

Thank you both so much for your business, loyalty, and patience. You guys rock and I’m incredibly happy for the both of you. Keep counting those ships sailing by…

Recent Transactions [theFrontSteps – Alexander Clark]
More Testimonials [theFrontSteps – Alexander Clark]

Off Market Magic

SOLD | Duboce Triangle, Inner Mission, Russian Hill, Mission Dolores

Congratulations to my buyers (x4), and my off market seller! That was quite the whirlwind of activity, and I’m thrilled we were able to pull it all off.

As my client said on my LinkedIn profile, I pulled off a “hat trick that [he] thought was impossible in the crazy San Francisco real estate market…” by not only helping him win a 15 (or more) offer situation on 2169 Folsom (Rex Ray’s old pad), but also coordinating the off market sale of his condominium to New York buyers buying his home (2186A 15th St) sight unseen.

I should add we pulled this off with making the purchase of Folsom contingent upon the sale of 15th…almost unheard of in this market, but we did it! And a special thanks to the listing agent for sticking with us. Phew!

In addition to the above trifecta, I represented the buyers of a great “new” condominium at 323 A Church. Another multiple offer situation that was quite touch and go all the way until the very end, I used my connections at SFO to make sure my buyers’ flight from Germany was not delayed and arrived on time, so they could sign their loan/buyer documents that day or risk getting kicked out of contract:

I also represented buyers of 870 Chestnut, which turned out to be a walk in the park compared to the other deals, as it only contained the usual lender headaches and seller hardball tactics that are almost guaranteed to be a part of any transaction

Big hats off to all of my wonderful clients past, present, and future. Because of you, life is good. I hope you all enjoy your new homes, and remember I am here for you, always.

I appreciate all of you readers near and far, many of whom have become clients and friends, and look forward to connecting with all of you when it’s time for you, or anyone you know, to buy and sell San Francisco real estate.

If you’ve had it in your mind to buy or sell during the post Labor Day listing Bonanza and usual market spike, we should talk now to get your ducks in a row.

Carry on, and continue enjoying your Summer….

For a look at some more Recent Transactions, follow this link

Go Giants!

San Francisco Real Estate Third Quarter Report

San Francisco House & Condo Values
Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales?
Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why?

September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until most close escrow in October and early November. In the meantime, we’ll look at the last 2 quarters.

Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The following 2 charts look at current and longer-term trends in home values. As is common, median house sales prices dropped a bit in the 3rd quarter – this is due mostly to seasonality issues – though condos have held steady for 3 quarters now at $950,000. Dollar per square foot values have continued to increase to new peaks: This metric is particularly being impacted by new-development condo sales, which are breaking dollar per square foot records virtually everyplace they’re being built.

If you wish to drill down on values in very specific city neighborhoods, we recently updated our interactive map, which can be found here: SF Home Price Map


Where Home Sales Occur at What Prices

Renderings Revealed For Vacant Corner Lot Development Opportunity At 1000 Broadway, Russian Hill… Bids Due Sealed

What it is now:

What it could be:

The view you might see:
The Deets:

“The property consists of 5,415 square feet of vacant land slated for subdivision and situated on the northwest corner of Broadway and Taylor Streets. The property offers spectacular views over San Francisco, including North Beach, the Financial District, the Bay Bridge and the San Francisco Bay. The site is flanked on two sides by a stately historic wall.

The proposed development dubbed “Wysteria” consists of two luxury single-family homes, each on its own fee-simple lot, facing Broadway Street. It also includes a building containing two luxury townhome condominiums to be built on a third lot on Taylor Street. Designated site addresses will be 1000 Broadway, 1010 Broadway, 1601 Taylor and 1625 Taylor Street.

The project was designed by renowned architectural firm Page & Turnbull. For over thirty years, Page & Turnbull has served as the preservation architect for numerous National Register and locally recognized landmarks. Their work has been honored by the National Trust for Historic Preservation, American Institute of Architects, California Preservation Foundation and other national, regional and local organizations.

This property is one of the few remaining developable lots on the northern rim of San Francisco. The property is situated among many gracious single family homes and classic Arts and Crafts, Mediterranean, Edwardian and Victorian buildings.”

Talk about a prime opportunity in an A+ location…

Sealed bids are due August 1st, and you heard it here first.

Wysteria Residences [website]

Another Russian Hill Sale And Testimonial

Another happy client has been so kind as to share a testimonial of the service I can provide to you and your friends and family.

I’m a commercial real estate professional – a few years back I chaired the commercial RE side of our trade association. My wife used to buy retail centers for a REIT. We know the value of having an experienced professional on our side. When we decided to buy a place in SF we chose Alex to represent us. We’re delighted with our new home and would recommend him highly.
-Ed & Susan

Thanks guys!

If you’re in the market to buy/sell San Francisco, Marin, or Peninsula real estate, please don’t hesitate to give me a shout.

More Testimonials

Buyer Testimonial In Russian Hill – Opportunity For Long Term Guests And Corporate Renters, And A Little Scoop On 1177 & 1179 Union Street

Don’t ask me why, but for the past 5 years (at least) I haven’t been asking my clients for testimonials. True to one of my New Year’s resolutions, I’m going to begin gathering as many as I can, and sharing them here. Beginning with this one…

San Francisco is a city littered with real estate agents that look at buyers and sellers as “just another lead” to make money, but Alex is the exceptionally rare breed of real estate agent that just “gets” it.

Alex has helped me purchase two homes and there are two things that set Alex apart from the rest of the pack – patience and commitment. First, Alex was not only willing, but also actively enthusiastic about showing me a broad spectrum of properties while I was still unfocused in my search so that I could educate myself on individual micro-markets. Many agents would have considered this a waste of their time.

Second, once I had started down the negotiation process, Alex was completely committed to my cause – i.e. getting the best deal possible. Even when the 12th hour was nigh, and it looked as if I was about to walk out of what was already a great deal because of some overlooked loose ends on the seller’s part, Alex didn’t pressure me at all to close the transaction. Instead, Alex worked with me to execute an especially well crafted negotiating maneuver that extracted thousands more from the seller.

Well done, Alex.

Thanks Jason! It was a pleasure working with you. I hope your property treats you right.

For anybody interested in a quintessential San Francisco location for your long term guests, US Open of Golf (coming to San Francisco’s Olympic Club this June) or The America’s Cup (coming to our waters 2013) Visitors, or corporate executives, the units will be offered as a VRBO, corporate, and (potentially) long-term rentals. Details are at [temporarily offline].

For details on this transaction, feel free to contact me directly. Essentially, it was/is a two unit building recently converted to a condominium. The units separately were asking $865,000 for the bottom, and $1,065,000 for the top, for a combined $1,930,000. My client was able to get the property for under asking price, even though multiple offers were received.

Four Buyers In Four Days…And 121 Beulah, How Did It End?

Hi all! I just wanted to give a little update to you from my world of San Francisco real estate.

In my humble opinion, the market is extremely hot for the right properties. On Friday I wrote four separate offers (five if you count that one property is two condos), in four entirely different neighborhoods, and have been in a multiple offer situation on every single one of them. My buyers lost out on a house near West Portal (by roughly $25-35k), and my buyer on a Outer Avenues house is still in the thick of a six offer situation.

My clients for a Cole Valley property accepted a counter offer from the seller, knowing that other offers were lurking. And thankfully, the sellers of a Russian Hill property that my client offered on realized cash truly is king in this lending environment, and wisely accepted our offer on their property, rather than the others with financing.

I would love to share details and specifics about all of these, but as you can imagine, I can’t. I am very busy representing a ton of people throughout the city at this very moment, and all of it is helping me gain that much more knowledge to help you.

As always, other agents are talking to me and sharing stories, potential buyers they may have for homes, and properties some of their sellers may sell. Why they don’t just post all of it for free on PocketListings.net is beyond me, but I’m happy they feel comfortable sharing with me.

If you, or any of your friends/family, need help with San Francisco real estate, please don’t hesitate to contact me. My head is FULL of real estate opportunity!

Oh…and that luxury remodel on Beulah I mentioned two weeks ago….SOLD IN FIVE DAYS for $2,600,000 (asking $2,495,000). We can only assume CASH, and multiple circling.

Happy Monday! It snowed!