San Francisco Real Estate Market Report November 2018

Midterms have passed and the Democrats have taken back control of the House, effective January 1st. It remains to be seen if they will attempt to reinstate full deductibility of homeowners’ mortgage interest, which could help keep San Francisco home prices trending upwards.

Over the past four weeks, the stock market has had significant gyrations, including a 1200 point decline in the last two weeks of October which capped that month’s worst performance in seven years. This volatility may negatively impact buyers who depend on stocks for their downpayment.

The economy remains robust and the Federal Reserve Bank is expected to continue raising interest rates to keep it from overheating, resulting in inflation. These rises will be a counterweight to rising home prices because rising interest rates dampen buyers’ purchasing power.

In San Francisco, inventory rose very slightly from last year for both single family homes and condo/loft/TICs, but the market remains very solidly in the sellers’ drivers seat.

Single Family Homes:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,550,000 is up 8.8% over last year’s*.

Year-to-date, new listings are up 5.1% while sales are down 1.5%.

October’s inventory of 2.5 months is 13.6% higher than in 2017.

82% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 113%.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,199,633 is up 6.2% over last year’s*.

Year-to-date, new listings are up 5.6% while sales are up 7.7%.

October’s inventory of 3 months is 3.4% higher than in 2017.

68% of condo/loft/TIC’s sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 106%.

All of this said, it is my hunch these numbers do not yet reflect the incredibly quiet and wishy-washy past couple of months. There are still many properties yet to get in contract, and many yet to close…still more pulled off the market. By all accounts our market is still great, but it has definitely shifted.

Overbids…They Still Exist…In Large Quantity…And Still Baffle

It’s been a while since I’ve broken down the top 10 Overbids for you, and although I suspect I’ll be posting Overbids until I retire (I’ve been doing overbids already at least 15 years), the market is doing something weird at the moment…so you should be keeping your eyes on the Recent Sales and Underbids too. It’s getting interesting…

That said, here you go:
Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
556 Mississippi Street 2/2.00/N/A 11 $959,000 $1,487,500 55.11%
1274 Shafter Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 17 $599,950 $850,000 41.68%
1946 42nd Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 14 $995,000 $1,400,000 40.70%
1747 42nd Avenue 0/1.00/N/A 12 $999,000 $1,353,000 35.44%
666 Madrid Street 4/3.00/N/A 34 $998,000 $1,350,000 35.27%
746 Church Street 2/1.00/ 10 $1,395,000 $1,856,250 33.06%
170 Guerrero Street 2/1.00/E 5 $949,000 $1,250,000 31.72%
191 Dublin 4/3.00/N/A 29 $998,888 $1,300,000 30.14%
240 Hartford Street A 1/1.00/ 5 $925,000 $1,200,000 29.73%
60 Coleridge Street 3/2.00/N/A 14 $1,159,000 $1,500,000 29.42%

Looking for an amazing property on an amazing street? Check out 1662 Page, the property so many seek, and is oddly still available and open this weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone!

San Francisco Real Estate Market Shifts – Will It Last?

It’s an interesting time in the San Francisco real estate market. If you’re one with the ocean, it’s like being caught between the in and out-going tides (the slack). We made it through the Summer Doldrums, hit the Fall listing frenzy and now we are stuck. Still many multiples of properties flying off the shelf and being fiercely competed, and still others languishing on the market without any takers. For those of us that list properties for sale, the offer date is no longer guaranteed to produce multiple offers, the number of emails and “insider” network posts of “still available” homes have risen dramatically, and general buzz and traffic to listings and open houses has definitely declined…mostly. I say mostly, because like I said earlier, some places are still crazy nuts.

As I dig through the data available to me, I was just about to say the market has totally shifted, and then I got stuck on this chart (from Compass’ market report) by way of the data guru Patrick Carlisle, and it reminded me to be patient, and not panic:

As you can see it goes back to 2012, and as you can see there is a definite pattern. The only difference this time around is in this chart, which shows a 28% increase year over year of new listings compared to last…more inventory, which means it will take longer to get through it, and once we get through it, what will the future hold? There is also a ton of other data that takes us way back in time, so I encourage you to check it out.

There is a lot of talk that we may have hit a peak, and there is still other talk from my lender contacts that we have another solid Spring selling season ahead of us before things get really interesting. We are in the midst of mid-term elections (GO VOTE!) and there is definitely weird and toxic fodder coming out of the White House, which could hose us all, but all in all I say it’s still too close to call whether or not the market is making a permanent shift, or just a temporary hiccup like we’ve definitely seen in years past.

I’m happy to chat market, seasonality, prime time to sell and buy, and what your property might currently be worth, just give me a shout.

In the meantime, I have a couple amazing homes for sale that you absolutely must check out:
An awesome Single Family in Cole Valley at 715 Cole (NOT ON MLS); and a spectacular Victorian condominium in the Haight at 1662 Page. Had you been following theFrontSteps you would have already known about these and perhaps even had a chance to snag 215 Cole, which I just sold quietly off market for $1,500,000. I keep telling you, follow my site, and be on my radar and good things will come your way.

Haight Ashbury Victorian Flat Hits MLS Asking $1,700,000 – Wow Factor At 11

If you don’t get the Spinal Tap reference…it’s high time you watch Spinal Tap.

Anywho…my newest listing to hit the market.

Grand scale, turn of the century Victorian Condominium on a coveted block in the Haight / Ashbury area of San Francisco with approximately 1630 square feet of living space, original wood floors, period details, ~12 foot high ceilings, renovated kitchen & bath, two fireplaces, in unit washer & dryer, 1 car parking, exclusive use storage, shared yard, and great natural light.


A property so many seek, yet can’t find is here and available..it’s true. This three bedroom, one bath home is filled with charm and details of years past. From the century old wainscoting, to the light fixtures, picture rails, and triple crown molding, 1662 Page will delight even the most discerning Victorian fan, and wow every buyer with a modern, open kitchen, breakfast porch, beautiful split bath with radiant heat, well preserved wood floors, updated foundation and seismic strengthening, as well as parking for one car.

This charming turn of the century home enjoys a wonderful central location just steps away from all of your shopping needs and a growing number of popular restaurants, and is situated ideally for access to Golden Gate Park and Buena Vista Parks, Cole Valley, NoPa, freeways to points North, South, and East, and of course the famous Haight/Ashbury.

Property Details:
List Price: $1,700,000
1630 square feet
3 bedrooms
1 Remodeled bathroom w/ Designer Shower and Soaking tub, Radiant Floor Heating
Remodeled Split Bath (a.k.a. WC) with Toto toilet and Radiant Floor Heating
Modern Eat-in Kitchen
Granite Countertops
Breakfast Patio
Wine Fridge
Viking Gas Range
Bosch Dishwasher
Wood Floors
2 Gas Fireplaces
2 Living Rooms, one could be Formal Dining Room
New Rheem Hot Water Heater
15 New Double Paned Custom Wood Windows
Period Details
High Ceilings
Period Lighting
New in unit Washer & Dryer
1 car parking
Large Deeded Storage Room
Shared Yard and Garden Room, Fire Pit, & Grill
Extensive Seismic Retrofit completed 2016
HOA Fees $240/mo. (Includes Water, Garbage, Building Insurance, Common Electric and repairs.)
Dog okay (Limit 2)

Showing Schedule:
Open Saturday & Sunday 1-4pm

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351
DRE#01339386
For more information, a private tour, or to chat about your property, you can contact me via the info above, or try the contact form below.

The House Where Craigslist Was Born Finally Found A Buyer

What do you do in San Francisco when it takes you more than two weeks to get a property sold? A property that was featured on multiple media outlets for the fact it was the place where Craig Newmark founded that little website called Craigslist? You adjust, just like we did here.

After a couple weeks on the market without any real bites (despite at least 150 people walking through the door on the first weekend of Open Houses), and not having been painted or staged, the feeling was brewing inside we needed to shift our focus. Something wasn’t right. Sure, we were in the thick of the Summer doldrums, but this was a perfectly located charming Cole Valley condominium that checked all the boxes…except one…a forever dedicated parking spot. That was the deal killer.

Alas, we pulled this baby off the market for a couple weeks, painted critical rooms, changed some lighting, staged, and bammo! Sold to a wonderful person who is going to enjoy it for many years to come, and doesn’t have a car.

Thanks to my sellers for their incredible patience, and thanks to the buyer for coming forward with an excellent offer.

This property sold for $1,480,000.

The property so many seek is finally available, and it couldn’t be more supremely located…Situated in the heart-center of Cole Valley, this circa 1907 ground floor condominium will delight from the moment you walk in the door.


[Update: This was found within the walls…]

This wonderful home features three bedrooms, one remodeled bathroom, a true chef’s kitchen with Blue Star range (because not all chefs have massive kitchens, but all chefs have the best of the best stoves), hard and softwood floors from generations past, two decorative fireplaces, direct access to common area deck and shared yard, eastern exposure for amazing morning light, washer & dryer, and easy access to public transportation, Sutro Forest & Tank Hill hiking trails, Golden Gate Park, the N-Judah line, UCSF, the Castro, and USF to name a few.

Property Details:
List Price: $1,245,000
SOLD: $1,480,000
3 bedroom
1 updated/modern bathroom with radiant floor heating
Great kitchen
Blue Star Range
Dining room w/ Box beam ceilings
Nest Thermostat
Hardwood and Softwood floors
2 decorative fireplaces
Washer & Dryer
Parking in building (for one year, then rolls to 1/3 share)
Extra Storage
Low HOAs $145/mo
Direct access to yard
Approximately 1250 Square feet
AAA Cole Valley Location
Close to shops, restaurants, public transportation

I am an expert in the Cole Valley real estate market. If you are interested in selling or buying in the area, give me a shout.

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351
DRE#01339386

Charming Cole Valley Condo Where Craig Newmark Launched Craigslist… [SFGate]
Condo Where Craigslist Was Born Asks $1.39 Million [Curbed SF]

Cole Valley Condo Back On Market | New Price | New Look

We took a break, but now we’re back, and ready to go. This amazing turn of the century home is now painted, staged, and $150,000 less! Come in and have a look before it gets snatched out from under you, and tell your friends that are dying to get their feet planted in Cole Valley…


Situated in the heart-center of Cole Valley, this circa 1907 ground floor condominium will delight from the moment you walk in the door.


This wonderful home features three bedrooms, one remodeled bathroom, a true chef’s kitchen with Blue Star range (because not all chefs have massive kitchens, but all chefs have the best of the best stoves), hard and softwood floors from generations past, two decorative fireplaces, direct access to common area deck and shared yard, eastern exposure for amazing morning light, washer & dryer, and easy access to public transportation, Sutro Forest & Tank Hill hiking trails, Golden Gate Park, the N-Judah line, UCSF, the Castro, and USF to name a few.

Come take a look and tell your friends…

Property Details:
List Price: $1,245,000
3 bedroom
1 updated/modern bathroom with radiant floor heating
Great kitchen
Blue Star Range
Dining room w/ Box beam ceilings
Nest Thermostat
Hardwood and Softwood floors
2 decorative fireplaces
Washer & Dryer
Parking in building (for one year, then rolls to 1/3 share)
Extra Storage
Low HOAs $145/mo
Direct access to yard
Approximately 1250 Square feet
AAA Cole Valley Location
Close to shops, restaurants, public transportation

Showing Schedule:
Sundays from 2-4pm
Tuesday 12-1:30pm
Private Showings by Appointment

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351
DRE#01339386
For more information, a private tour, or to chat about your property, you can contact me via the info above, or try the contact form below.

San Francisco Real Estate Micro Market Update – Plus 3 Off Market Gems

Like a bear coming out of hibernation, the San Francisco real estate market is waking up from its Summer slumber and new inventory is flooding the market. As of the time of this post, this week alone San Francisco has seen 254 new listings (of all property types) hit the market since Monday. That’s more than double the rolling average for the months of June, July, and August. The linked tear sheet is as basic as you get, but it will give you an indication of what’s out there. As soon as the data dump is complete, you’ll be able to see all of these Hot New Listings on The Goods.

All Summer long, no matter where I was, or what I was doing, people ask “So how’s the market in San Francisco?” It’s almost as common as “Is it foggy in SF?” And my answer to them has become canned, “It’s slow in places, white hot in others, and everyone is waiting until after Labor Day, so let’s see what happens then. And yes, it’s foggy…every day.”

It’s very hard to paint an accurate picture of a market when I know sellers are holding out until after Labor Day, and buyers are waiting in the shadows, or traveling to exotic locales to escape the fog. It’s not possible to know if it’s a broader slowdown, or just the typical Summer Doldrums as I like to call them.

I have about 15 buyers, and 5 listings. Three of those 15 buyers are looking for the same thing, and as it stands today, there is only one good choice for all of them. Multiply that by the other Realtors working the same tight city market, and I can already see a recipe for Overbids on many properties in prime locations, high demand, and continued low supply. I’ll go out on a limb and say I suspect things to really heat up this Fall, so if you’re still thinking of selling, now is a damn good time.

If you’re looking for a place, I suspect you’re going to continue to need a thick skin and patience. As I say to everyone that I meet, get on my radar as there is an entire world of off market activity to increase your chances of buying success, and I’m always here to help make your life easier. Cases in point, I am bringing 1010 Cole Street back on the market any minute (painted, staged, $150,000 less, and looking amazing!), 318 Connecticut just hit the wire, and 215 Cole, 715 Cole, and 1720 Larkin are in my pocket, ready to be sold.

Happy Fall. See you out there, and make sure you introduce yourself.

First Look | Top Floor Potrero Hill View Residence

Because you follow theFrontSteps (if you don’t, you can follow here), you get the first peak inside this charming and perfectly located Potrero Hill view residence, and if you like, you can even make an offer before we hit MLS (this Friday).

You can expect a market update from me soon as we climb out of the typical Summer hibernation, and we see how the looming flood of inventory gets snatched up. Until then, enjoy the Fog, and check my Featured Properties (including three off market gems) for some things you may have missed while you, and the rest of San Francisco were bouncing to techno at Burning Man…

Situated in the heart-center of Potrero Hill, and just steps to 18th Street shops and restaurants, this top floor two bedroom, one bathroom flat with sweeping Northwest views from Corona Heights to City Hall is not to be missed.

Cole Valley Flat For $15; Scantily Clad Bathers Arrested; Dead Man Returns To Life – August 18, 1908

It’s not everyday you get to sell a property where history was made (no, I haven’t posted this listing on Craigslist), and it’s definitely not everyday that you open up a wall for a remodel and find a San Francisco Examiner from August 18, 1908…and it’s totally legible!

The information contained on the pages of this newspaper will truly transport you back in time:

“Dead man returns to life under injection of Strychnia”

…the birth and progress of the Independence Party led by William Randolph Hearst “was only defeated by the treason and the knife…”

“…bathers who appear in the surf so scant of cloth as to shock public decency to be arrested and fined.”

“Our country cousins [Santa Cruz residents] who are unused and unaccustomed to the fashions of city life are seriously shocked when they come to see us and go to spend an hour at the seashore…”

And since this is primarily a real estate blog, and I’m selling 1010 Cole, take a look at some of the rental listings, particularly 1039 Cole:

2 sunny; furn. hskpg. rooms; bath; gas; laundry; $15; Masonic ave. cars.

Some things don’t change…the importance of the sun in SF (where has it been!?), having gas to your home, an easy way to wash your clothes, and proximity to public transportation…and luckily others do.

The images are massive, so if you can’t read it, click and zoom.

Priceless reading, for sure.

Although this newspaper is tucked away in a safe and totally not able to be viewed, the property where it was found, and Craigslist was founded, is for sale, and available for purchase, 1010 Cole St, Cole Valley.

Come on by, have a look, or better yet…buy the home, and maybe (if you’re lucky) the newspaper will be part of the deal.

1010 Cole Street, Cole Valley, $1,395,000 [theFrontSteps]
Condo Where Craigslist Was Born Asks $1.39 Million [Curbed]
San Francisco House where Craigslist Was Launched Up For Sale [ABC 7 News]