San Francisco Condominium Real Estate Apprecation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to condominiums, the next post is specific to houses appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new condo construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.



The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. New, high-price condo projects can make sudden, dramatic impacts on neighborhood median sales prices in the year they go on market. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If either of these situations applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.





If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.


San Francisco New-Home Construction Report

The SF Planning Department just released updated Q3 information regarding the new-housing development pipeline. San Francisco is in the midst of one of its biggest new-housing construction booms in history. (The same is occurring on the commercial development side, but this report won’t deal with that.) Indeed, it often seems that new projects of one kind or another are being announced on an almost daily basis, and a detailed map delineating all projects in some stage of the pipeline makes many city districts appear to have measles.



New housing construction has lagged population pressures for decades – pressures which have soared during the current economic and employment boom – and now there is a scramble to address the inadequacy of housing supply, and, for developers/investors, to reap the rewards of a high demand/low supply dynamic in one of the most affluent and expensive housing markets in the world.

Currently, there are approximately 59,000 housing units of all kinds – luxury condos, rental apartments, market rate and affordable units, and social project housing – in the relatively near-term pipeline (next 5 to 6 years). Most are in the Market Street corridor area, the Van Ness corridor just above Market Street, and in the higher-density housing districts to the southeast of Market Street (see map). If we add the mega-projects planned for Candlestick-Hunter’s Point, Treasure Island and Park Merced, which may take decades to become a reality, the number jumps to over 80,000. As a point of context, there are approximately 382,000 residential units in San Francisco currently. About 3500 new units were added in 2014.

Housing supply and affordability issues, strong feelings regarding neighborhood gentrification and tenants’ rights, and even simple NIMBYism (or in SF, NBMVism, “not blocking my view!”) make development the most contentious political issue in San Francisco. Furious battles are ongoing in the Board of Supervisors, the Mayor’s office and the Planning Department; with neighborhood associations and special interest groups; and at the ballot box. Development is not for the faint of heart or shallow of pocket: One cannot contemplate building virtually anything in the city without vehement opposition and sometimes a well-funded coalition in opposition. For developers, the equation to be penciled out includes high costs, enormous hassle-factor and extended project timelines on one side, and the potential for large financial returns on the other. In new San Francisco developments, condos often sell for $1250 per square foot and above, and 500 square foot studio apartments can rent for up to $3500 per month.

Of the units in the greater pipeline of 80,000 units, over 9000 units are designated as “affordable housing” – but about 5000 of those are in the long-term Candlestick-Hunter’s Point and Treasure Island projects. Because of the nature of the political environment, much to do with how much affordable housing will be built is in flux. Many developers are in intense negotiations with government agencies and neighborhood associations to find a workable compromise between return on investment on one hand, and unit mix and affordable housing requirements on the other. Said requirements may consist of a percentage of units in the project, building affordable units elsewhere in the city, or contributing substantial amounts to the city’s affordable housing fund in lieu of building.

New housing construction is very sensitive to major economic, political and even environmental changes (i.e. natural disasters), so simply because something is in the pipeline doesn’t mean it will be completed as planned within the timeframe contemplated. First of all, plans are constantly being changed in the normal course of things. And if a big financial or real estate market correction (or crash) occurs, as happened in late 2008, projects in process can come to a grinding halt, and new projects substantially altered, delayed or abandoned. Because the timeline in San Francisco can run 3 to 6+ years, from initial filing with Planning to construction completion, developers and their financiers make enormous financial bets on what the future will look like. Timing is everything in real estate development, and can make the difference between exceedingly large profits and bankruptcy. When the music stops – which it always does sooner or later, though the time range of opportunity can vary greatly – not everyone will find a chair to sit down in. That especially applies to those who over-leveraged their projects.

As a side note, big Chinese developers have been investing in both large residential and commercial real estate development projects in the Bay Area, and, according to reports, continue to aggressively seek additional opportunities. Though significant – constituting billions of dollars in investment – these projects do not constitute the greater part of Bay Area development.

The Planning Department’s pipeline-report webpage is here:

And if it keeps snowing, you will find me here.

888 7th Street, 85% sold and looking for your $399,000

According to more Realtor Spam (it’s really getting out of control, but some of it is useful):

888 7th Street

Just a reminder, we are about 85% sold at our new building at 888 7th Street in the Showplace Square/lower Potrero area. We have a limited number of junior one bedrooms homes available starting at $399,000. We have a limited number of one bedroom homes available starting at $499,000. These are great prices and great deals for first time home buyers.


More on 888 7th Street [theFrontSteps]

Investor Alley

by Greg Angilly

In every market there are properties that can be obtained for below market value – many that have a strong upside. Here are two we’ve been watching for a few weeks. Our sense is these are available at or below asking and are both strong investment opportunities.

3479 Sacramento St – List Price – $1,075,000


2 bed / 1.25 bath + bonus room down. Parking and outdoor space and on the market for 90 days. Good location – slightly busier than the typical Presidio Heights location – but surrounded by boutique shops and cafés. Well under the average price per sqft in Presidio Ht’s. I imagine there is a willingness to negotiate the price if other terms of the offer are strong. The unit doesn’t show well at all. It’s dark and could use some upgrades. That said, nothing needs to be done so you can owner occupy while you renovate. New kitchen and bath / upgrade lighting / repaint the façade / research the inclusion of bonus room via interior stairs. With basic upgrades this unit should sell for $1.15+ – if you can include the downstairs rooms you are looking at $1.35+.

2080 3rd St # 8 – List Price – $649,000


Property has seen several price reductions from original price of $689,000.  Top floor unit with walk out deck with expansive views in smaller building. If purchased for 635K the loft becomes a great investment. Can serve as a nice rental / income property – approximate rental rate is $2500/ month. There are several new projects going in on 3rd St which will bring additional owners and businesses. The Mission Bay campus continues to grow and several new businesses have recently opened along the 3rd St corridor. This area will continue to mature and a deeded top floor deck with views will be a commodity people are willing to pay money to obtain.

I will be tracking these properties for our readers, and I am open for any discussions regarding the two, and/or my opinion on their investment value.

2080 3rd St # 8 – List Price – $649,000 [mls]

3479 Sacramento St – List Price – $1,075,000 [mls]

888 Seventh Street: an update


Back on November 17, 2006, 888 Seventh accepted applicants for their 170 BMR (Below Market Rate) units of a total 224 Units. They received around 3800 of them! Pricing for the studios was around $199,000, 1 bedrooms around $230,000, 2 bedrooms around $250,000, and 3 bedrooms $299,000-350,000. The building itself is quite nice, location is improving, but the story here is the amount of applicants for the BMR units, and the amount of income (one person $63,850, two persons $72,950, three persons $82,100, four persons $91,200) necessary to qualify for BMR.

For more information on BMR you can find a good bit on 888 Seventh’s website by clicking “About”, then “BMR Q&A”, or visiting the Mayor’s Office of Housing website.

The Market Rate units (28 studios, 18- 1 bedrooms) are expected to go up for sale in July-August, parking costs an additional $35,000 (BMR and Market Rate Price) construction has topped off the 6th floor (last), and they expect the closings to happen in January.  We’re guessing (the sales office wouldn’t tell) pricing for the studios and 1 bedrooms around $500,000. 

Things are moving along smoothly, and briskly in yet another Mission Bay Development.

Mayor’s Office of Housing [website]

What’s going down (or up) in Mission Bay [sfn BLOG]

888 Seventh [website]

[pic taken from property website]

Ask an Expert (Mary Laughlin Fenton), Investment Property in Mission Bay?

“Can I ask what your opinion is about buying an investment property
down at the mission bay area now? You know, the ones like on King or
Berry street. Do you think those prices are coming down and do you
think they will come down? I saw on your last “sold” list, they were
all under asking. I would think of an investment property for 5-10
years down the line.”
D.C.-San Francisco

As answered by Mary Fenton, of Sotheby’s International Realty

If you want to buy and hold, I think that is a great area as it is going
to be the hub of great scientific activity. The area attracts young and
older buyers who are downsizing and moving into the city, and commuters
who want to be close to the freeways. Mission Bay should be a great
thriving area within the next 5-10 years.


Ask an Expert (Sally Rosenman), Investment Property in Mission Bay?

“Can I ask what your opinion is about buying an investment property
down at the mission bay area now? You know, the ones like on King or
Berry street. Do you think those prices are coming down and do you
think they will come down? I saw on your last “sold” list, they were
all under asking. I would think of an investment property for 5-10
years down the line.”
D.C.-San Francisco
As answered by Sally Rosenman of Hill & Co. Real Estate,
While the market there has slowed, properties priced right in certain buildings are still (seemingly) selling well. There is going to be a whole lot of growth there with the UC campus still being built and office buildings going up (or finally up) nearby. I strongly believe that the market will get better and people who have purchased now will be reaping the benefits in a few years.
There are some “deals” around in that some developers are offering rebates of some sort like credits for 1 or 2 years worth of HOA dues. I would suggest trying to bargain on prices as well.

Ask an Expert (Alexander Clark), Investment Property in Mission Bay?

“Can I ask what your opinion is about buying an investment property
down at the mission bay area now? You know, the ones like on King or
Berry street. Do you think those prices are coming down and do you
think they will come down? I saw on your last “sold” list, they were
all under asking. I would think of an investment property for 5-10
years down the line.”
D.C.-San Francisco


As answered by Alexander Clark, sfnewsletter
Are you asking specifically about the ones on King or Berry, or that area in general? If you’re buying 5-10 year holds, I’d buy. Prices have dipped and may do so a bit more with all the inventory available down there, but I still think for the time frame you are talking it is a very solid investment. One building I checked out and really like is 170 Off third (not necessarily Mission Bay). There are studio and 1br units under $500k there, that are a Giants lovers dream “pied a terre”. That place has the location nailed as well as the amenities. Wasn’t excited about the granite counters, but those can be switched out.
Thanks for writing in,
alex clark

Just Browsing: Arterra


[photo from Arterra website]

We were just browsing various websites and noticed San Francisco’s newest “green” development (Arterra) is having an HOA, W/D, and Fridge sale that ends on April 29th.  That will surely put a little green in your pocket.

What’s going down (or up) in Mission Bay

Information provided by: Amanda Jones of Vanguard Properties, and a member of sfnewsletter ™.
San Francisco’s new Mission Bay development covers 303 acres of land between the San Francisco Bay and Interstate-280.

• 6,000 housing units,
• 6 million sq. ft. of office/life science/technology commercial space,
• A new UCSF research campus
• 500,000 sq. ft. of city and neighborhood-serving retail space,
• A 500-room hotel with up to 50,000 sq. ft. of retail entertainment uses,
• 41 acres of public open space, including parks along Mission Creek and along the bay, plus 8 acres of open space within the UCSF campus,
• A new 500-student public school, a new public library and new fire and police stations.

Mission Bay will be served by transit by Muni’s new 3rd Street Light Rail system as well as two bus lines. This new neighborhood will include a new public branch library, childcare centers, a senior service complex, and other community facilities.

Mission Bay is expected to create over 31,000 new permanent jobs, in addition to hundreds of ongoing construction jobs.

More information: San Francisco Redevelopment Agency website