SF liquefaction map

Bay Area Liquefaction, Landslide, and Seismic Zones – Mapped

Lots of talk in the news these days about landfill, liquefaction, and general stability of property in and around San Francisco’s waterfront, and entire city for that matter (see “SF’s landmark tower for rich and famous is sinking and tilting“that hit newsstands and internets today [SF Gate/Chronicle]).

Big news, no doubt, but what about the rest of us?

I did a post waaaay back in 2010, preceded by the post I did even further back in 2008, both of which get hundreds, sometimes thousands of views daily, so I know for sure this is a topic of interest when buying/selling property in San Francisco. And since I get so many questions about whether the property you want to buy is, or is not, in liquefaction, let me be clear, I AM NOT A SEISMOLOGIST, GEOLOGIST, SCIENTIST, OR ANY TYPE OF OTHER EXPERT IN THE FIELD OF EARTHQUAKES, LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, LANDFILL, MUD FILL, BEDROCK, SETTLING, SLOPING, SLIPPING, SLIDING, OR ANY OTHER FIELD OF INTEREST THAT HAS LED YOU TO THIS SITE FOR KNOWLEDGE ABOUT LIQUEFACTION. I AM A REALTOR, AND EXPERT AT MARKETING PROPERTY FOR SALE, AND HELPING BUYERS BUY. WHAT I AM SHARING HERE IS MEANT TO BE A RESOURCE FOR YOU TO MAKE YOUR OWN EDUCATED DECISIONS. DO NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION POSTED HERE FOR YOUR PROPERTY PURCHASE OR SALE.

That said, I want to share a new App/site with you: Temblor…all things Seismic. You have to check it out. It’s awesome, and will hook you in for hours.

Check out this screenshot of the entire Bay Area…including liquefaction zones, fault lines, and recent quakes.
bay area liquefaction zones

Now zoom in to San Francisco…
SF liquefaction map

As I sit in my home office, which, according to Temblor, is built in an area of “moderate Liquefaction Susceptibility”, and a “Seismic Hazard rank of HIGH” (I challenge you to move the pin and find an area in SF that is not “High”), it’s left me wondering…does this change anything for me, and my decision to own property where I do? No. It doesn’t. It’s better than a map telling me I live in an area of High Tornado Susceptibility, where I roll the dice on a pair of glass slippers showing up on my doorstep.

So, there you go. Plug in your address, your mom’s address, your brother’s address, your employer’s address and see how you all stack up. This is yet another amazing resource, thanks to the Internet, available to everyone and anyone with even a remote interest in Earthquake activity (I’m guessing that’s everyone in California, at least). And I’m pleased to be sharing it with you.

Full disclosure, yes, I chatted with the founders of this service, no, they are not paying me for this post. I have downloaded the app, and refer to it constantly.

Happy Monday.

Previous Earthquake related posts on theFrontSteps:

SF neighborhoods prone to liquefaction and earthquake induced landslides, bedrock vs. landfill take two [theFrontSteps]
Ask Us, A map of bedrock vs landfill [theFrontSteps]
Liquefaction Zones of San Francisco’s Marina District [theFrontSteps]

millennium

Bargain Hunting At Millennium Tower

This week it’s residence 31E at Millennium Tower claiming the top spot on the weekly Underbid list, selling just shy of $300,000 UNDER asking price, and narrowly beating out unit 49B, also at Millennium Tower, which just closed $995,000 under asking, but still $2413.27 per square foot…
millennimtower
In fact, four of the top 10 underbids came this week by way of this ultra chic luxury tower, and that has me wondering, is it true what they’re saying?

As for the rest of the list:

Top 10 Underbids, San Francisco

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
301 Mission Street #31E 2 2.00 1 $2,595,000 $2,300,000 -11.37 %
301 Mission Street #49B 3 3.50 2 $8,995,000 $8,000,000 -11.06 %
301 Mission Street #704 2 2.00 1 $2,295,000 $2,100,000 -8.50 %
1587 15th Street 2 1.00 1 $447,706 $410,000 -8.42 %
355 1st Street 2 2.00 1 $1,825,000 $1,675,000 -8.22 %
3479-3483 Mission Street N/A N/A 0 $1,600,000 $1,480,000 -7.50 %
246 Stonecrest Drive 5 4.00 2 $1,985,000 $1,850,000 -6.80 %
301 Mission Street #38B 2 2.00 1 $2,895,000 $2,700,000 -6.74 %
483 Marietta Drive 4 3.00 2 $1,599,000 $1,500,000 -6.19 %
50 Bradford Street 2 1.00 1 $1,295,000 $1,220,000 -5.79 %

Over, Under, it doesn’t really matter. All of these homes on this list are selling for market price, and these buyers can/should be thrilled with their purchase.

As always, when it’s time to buy/sell, I’m here to help.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Splitting In Two [theFrontSteps]

sfflowermart

New Renderedings of Above-Ground SF Flower Mart Revealed

The SoMa-based SF Flower Mart has been a bay city institution for almost 60 years, but when plans were unveiled in 2014 for the establishment to move underground, public outcry was fierce.

Finally, the project has been revamped and the renderings depict a much more appealing above-ground facility, dotted with coffee shops, open space and plenty of sunlight for SF’s floral proprietors. The updated plan follows news that development company Kilroy Realty Corp. had purchased an adjoining  1.75-acre property at 620 Brannan St. bringing the square footage of the entire project to 2.1 million and making it the second biggest commercial development in SF after the Embarcadero Center.

Project Breakdown (see details below)
Creative Office Space: 2 mil sqft
Flower Mart Warehouse: 115,000 sqft
Retail / Market Hall: 100,000 sqft
Public Open Space: 40,000 sqft
Delivery: ~2020

sfflowermart2
Mixed-use Retail

Retail:
The San Francisco Flower Mart continues to witness the evolution of one of America’s greatest cities. What began almost 100 years ago as a loose arrangement of local growers selling their wares near Lotta’s Fountain soon grew into a physical marketplace at the corner of 5th and Howard. The market later became a formal institution at its current space at 6th and Brannan. This time, the market will remain in its current location in SoMa, but a major reshaping will make it the focal point of a dynamic, mixed-use space that offers a unique take on the urban lifestyle.

sfflowermart
Revamped Warehouse

The Warehouse:
The new San Francisco Flower Mart will include a modern, 115,000 sqft street-level warehouse, large enough to accommodate all tenants of the existing flower market. The improved layout will include secured entry points, as well as direct access to loading and parking to better service both input and output activities. 24-foot-high ceilings and strategically placed skylights create a light and airy feel inside of the warehouse and provide enough space for a multipurpose mezzanine level along the perimeter of the market. Energy efficient refrigeration will be located adjacent to each individual vendor stall. The specific details of the new facility will be further developed over the next several months by Kilroy Realty Corporation, San Francisco Flower Mart LLC, and a committee of Flower Mart tenants to ensure that the new market functions efficiently and effectively for businesses and customers.

sfflowermart4
Public Plaza

Integrated Public Plaza:
A series of integrated stairs throughout the site connect the amenity levels above to an expansive public plaza at the street level. The plaza will be the focal point of the Central SoMa neighborhood, which is currently lacking in high quality, well-maintained public open space. Boasting several convenient access points, connecting through the Market Hall, and encouraging pedestrian activity from nearby public transit, the plaza will also act as a programmable space for events such as famers’ markets and floral exhibitions. Pedestrian connections woven through the site are designed to address the recommendation of the Central SoMa Plan to link the surrounding city blocks to create more of a neighborhood feel. Through integrated windows off of the plaza, visitors and tenants will have the opportunity to catch a glimpse into the world of the fast-paced flower business without disrupting the busy wholesale operation inside.​

sfflowermart3
Creative Office Space

 

Creative Office Space:
Rising above retail experience will be a series of LEED Platinum-certified creative office buildings connected by sky bridges, giving tenants the flexibility to enjoy either large or medium-sized floorplates. A mix of rustic and modern facades and a low-rise podium building above the Market Hall on Brannan Street celebrates the industrial history and creative future of the neighborhood. Amenity plazas located above the Flower Mart warehouse at 14 and 24 feet contribute to a healthy office environment by providing office tenants with a convenient connection to the outdoors, attractive seating zones, recreational areas, and kiosks. This amenity zone, activated by the adjacent market and dynamic landscaping, will also extend the visual and functional identity of the Flower Mart.

More like this:
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Peep the New Ken Fulk-designed Luxury Residences at The Harrison

The Harrison is an unapologetically ostentatious transformation of the former luxury rental tower, 1 Rincon Hill, which sold for somewhere in the neighborhood of $400 million to Maximus Real Estate Partners last summer.

The tower, which is 49 stories tall and contains 298 units (valued at $1.3 million each based on the building’s sale price), is now marketing itself as the height of decadence in San Francisco real estate. Designed by Ken Fulk, San Francisco-based, interior designer and party planner to names like Sean Parker (that wedding in the redwoods), and Jean Paul Gaultier, The Harrison boasts truly inspired residences from the Siberian Oak wood floors to the custom brass and casted-glass wall sconces and stone countertops. No detail has been overlooked.

If you see yourself living in this kind of setting, with panoramic views of the bay, get in touch with me and we can view any number of available floor plans.

 

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Harrison floorplan
1 Bed 1 Bath Floorplan at The Harrison

 

 

Potrero Center

Rendering Reveal For New Potrero Center Mixed Use Development

Potrero Hill is one the sunniest neighborhoods in San Francisco and the center of some of the city’s most intense urban development and renewal. After selling for $111 million in 2012 to Equity One, leasing has already begun for a completely reimagined commercial heart planned for Potrero Center.

potrero_slide1
Present day Potrero Center was built in 1996 and took two years to complete

Equity One describes the new planned 227,000 square foot center, called Potrero Park (2300 16th St…the entire block on 16th between Potrero and Bryant Streets), as one of the most dynamic mixed use developments in the country, thanks to the area existing in its own zoning district. The project touts strong population demographics, excellent visibility from three major thoroughfares, and tons of free parking including convenient environmentally friendly electric car charging stations.

luminapool

Lumina Sales Center Says Thanks

lumina

It’s not everyday a development runs an ad thanking those that have helped make it a success, but Lumina just did. I’m proud to be one of the many agents bringing buyers through the door, and making it a resounding success.

The LUMINA Sales Team & Tishman Speyer would like to extend their sincerest gratitude to those of you who have helped bring the vision of LUMINA to life.

Lumina San Francisco
Thanks Lumina sales center, it’s a pleasure working with you guys. Here’s to 2016 getting more people to recognize the sheer awesomeness of what you’re creating.

Contact me to get into Lumina today.

112102

San Francisco New-Home Construction Report

The SF Planning Department just released updated Q3 information regarding the new-housing development pipeline. San Francisco is in the midst of one of its biggest new-housing construction booms in history. (The same is occurring on the commercial development side, but this report won’t deal with that.) Indeed, it often seems that new projects of one kind or another are being announced on an almost daily basis, and a detailed map delineating all projects in some stage of the pipeline makes many city districts appear to have measles.

112101

112102

New housing construction has lagged population pressures for decades – pressures which have soared during the current economic and employment boom – and now there is a scramble to address the inadequacy of housing supply, and, for developers/investors, to reap the rewards of a high demand/low supply dynamic in one of the most affluent and expensive housing markets in the world.

Currently, there are approximately 59,000 housing units of all kinds – luxury condos, rental apartments, market rate and affordable units, and social project housing – in the relatively near-term pipeline (next 5 to 6 years). Most are in the Market Street corridor area, the Van Ness corridor just above Market Street, and in the higher-density housing districts to the southeast of Market Street (see map). If we add the mega-projects planned for Candlestick-Hunter’s Point, Treasure Island and Park Merced, which may take decades to become a reality, the number jumps to over 80,000. As a point of context, there are approximately 382,000 residential units in San Francisco currently. About 3500 new units were added in 2014.

Housing supply and affordability issues, strong feelings regarding neighborhood gentrification and tenants’ rights, and even simple NIMBYism (or in SF, NBMVism, “not blocking my view!”) make development the most contentious political issue in San Francisco. Furious battles are ongoing in the Board of Supervisors, the Mayor’s office and the Planning Department; with neighborhood associations and special interest groups; and at the ballot box. Development is not for the faint of heart or shallow of pocket: One cannot contemplate building virtually anything in the city without vehement opposition and sometimes a well-funded coalition in opposition. For developers, the equation to be penciled out includes high costs, enormous hassle-factor and extended project timelines on one side, and the potential for large financial returns on the other. In new San Francisco developments, condos often sell for $1250 per square foot and above, and 500 square foot studio apartments can rent for up to $3500 per month.

Of the units in the greater pipeline of 80,000 units, over 9000 units are designated as “affordable housing” – but about 5000 of those are in the long-term Candlestick-Hunter’s Point and Treasure Island projects. Because of the nature of the political environment, much to do with how much affordable housing will be built is in flux. Many developers are in intense negotiations with government agencies and neighborhood associations to find a workable compromise between return on investment on one hand, and unit mix and affordable housing requirements on the other. Said requirements may consist of a percentage of units in the project, building affordable units elsewhere in the city, or contributing substantial amounts to the city’s affordable housing fund in lieu of building.

New housing construction is very sensitive to major economic, political and even environmental changes (i.e. natural disasters), so simply because something is in the pipeline doesn’t mean it will be completed as planned within the timeframe contemplated. First of all, plans are constantly being changed in the normal course of things. And if a big financial or real estate market correction (or crash) occurs, as happened in late 2008, projects in process can come to a grinding halt, and new projects substantially altered, delayed or abandoned. Because the timeline in San Francisco can run 3 to 6+ years, from initial filing with Planning to construction completion, developers and their financiers make enormous financial bets on what the future will look like. Timing is everything in real estate development, and can make the difference between exceedingly large profits and bankruptcy. When the music stops – which it always does sooner or later, though the time range of opportunity can vary greatly – not everyone will find a chair to sit down in. That especially applies to those who over-leveraged their projects.

As a side note, big Chinese developers have been investing in both large residential and commercial real estate development projects in the Bay Area, and, according to reports, continue to aggressively seek additional opportunities. Though significant – constituting billions of dollars in investment – these projects do not constitute the greater part of Bay Area development.

The Planning Department’s pipeline-report webpage is here: http://sf-planning.org/index.aspx?page=1691

And if it keeps snowing, you will find me here.

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Mission To Millennium | SF’s Top 10 Underbids of the Week

The top underbid of the week goes to an Outer Mission single family home that (dare we say) needs a bit of work. Listed for $699,000 and sold for $575,000 after 62 days on the market. According to our data from last week, single family homes continue to take up the majority of the top 10 underbid slots: 50% single family homes, 30% multi-units, and 20% condo.

As we get into the winter months, we are seeing luxury homes cooling down but affordable homes remaining competitive. One other notable Underbid is this wonderful Millennium Tower residence with million dollar water and landmark views on both sides of the Bay. Listed at $4.588M and sold for $4.18M after 122 days. Still a win, IMO.

As for the rest, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2220 Cayuga Avenue 1/1/1 $699,000 $575,000 -17.74 %
161-165 Cook Street 2-4 Units $2,395,000 $2,150,000 -10.23 %
2287 16th Avenue 4/2/2 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 -9.94 %
18 Kronquist Court 4/2/1 $1,899,000 $1,725,000 -9.16 %
301 Mission Street #49D 2/3/2 $4,588,000 $4,180,000 -8.89 %
78 Gladys Street 3/2/0 $1,195,000 $1,100,000 -7.95 %
1437 47th Avenue 1437A 2-4 Units $1,275,000 $1,175,000 -7.84 %
2829 Pierce Street 2831 2-4 Units $2,970,000 $2,750,000 -7.41 %
3260 Baker Street 3/2/2 $2,999,000 $2,800,000 -6.64 %
2040 Franklin Street #506 0/1/1 $575,000 $540,000 -6.09 %

As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market, your home, homes in your area, or real estate referrals around the world, I am here to help. Just give me a shout by choosing any of the “contact” options all over this site.

88 King St

SOLD: 88 King St., South Beach, San Francisco

Working for sellers and working for buyers…that’s what I do.

I have a great client that I showed all kinds of different properties to in all parts of the city. Turns out, he really liked South Beach and all it has to offer (proximity to water, Giants games, restaurants, vibrancy, downtown, etc.), but we just couldn’t find the right unit in the dream building (88 King St)…so I did a little digging (Some call it “bird-doggin'”) and we SCORED!

He just closed on a big 2+ bed, 2 bath, corner unit in this awesome property that has arguably the best outdoor pool and common area in the city, and we did it all off market. No competition, no stressful overbids, just a buyer and seller agreeing on ideal price and terms (lots of terms actually) and that was that.

Congratulations amigo! I’m looking forward to hanging on your balcony when the Giants get back into the swing of things (all puns intended).

Recent Transactions [theFrontSteps]
South Beach, San Francisco [theFrontSteps]
Alexander Clark as listing agent [theFrontSteps]
Buyers…this is for you [theFrontSteps]