Facebook Snags Downtown SF Office Space | New Inventory Is Still Tight | Prices Up 10.4% YOY | And Overbids

Just when you thought maybe things would cool, Fall hits, listings are gobbled up, Overbids continue, multiple offers are the norm, pickin’s are still slim (even though at last check 100 new properties hit MLS today), and Facebook goes and signs a whopper of an office deal right next to Salesforce, around the corner from LinkedIn, and gives its commuter employees reason to rejoice and plant roots firmly in San Francisco.

I suspect this will play a role in our very basic supply/demand conundrum of the last 15 years, and counting.

As for our current market, here goes…

Single Family Homes:
August’s median sales price continued its predictable seasonal backing off from its Spring peak, dropping 6.4% to $1,380,000 from May’s $1,475,000. However, in the same time frame last year prices dipped 7.4%. Prices are still up 10.4% above August, 2016.

Since August, 2012, the median sold price in San Francisco is up 81%.

Inventory continues to be at its lowest level, 1.6 months, since last December. This is the ongoing result of fewer homes coming on the market while sales stay fairly constant. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 7% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 3.3%.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, down a bit from July but still at 114%, and 79% of single family homes sold above the list price, up from 75.9% last August.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
Median sold prices are up 10.8%, to $1,175,000, compared to August 2016. And, while not as great a rise as with single family homes, the median sold price is up 62.5% compared to August 2012’s $723,000.

In August, 63.4% sold above list price and the median bid was 3.2% above list price.

The number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are also down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 10.7%. And, like single family homes, sales are up, by 2.6%. Current inventory stands at a 2 months supply.

To see and share this in infographic form, see below.
—–
Let’s talk Overbids – The Top 10

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
1632 Pacheco Street 5/4.00/N/A 15 $995,000 $1,550,000 55.78%
1932 Ortega Street 2/2.00/N/A 10 $998,000 $1,425,000 42.79%
146 Beulah Street 2/1.00/ 14 $949,000 $1,350,000 42.26%
52 Dawnview Way 4/3.00/N/A 12 $1,250,000 $1,750,000 40.00%
177 Forest View Drive 3/2.00/N/A 18 $1,149,000 $1,580,000 37.51%
136 Andover Street 2/1.00/N/A 10 $1,099,000 $1,502,053 36.67%
1738 25th Avenue 4/3.00/N/A 11 $1,398,800 $1,800,000 28.68%
2319 15th Street 2/2.00/A 10 $1,195,000 $1,525,000 27.62%
217 Lowell Street 2/2.00/N/A 2 $849,000 $1,080,000 27.21%
62 Santa Ysabel Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 39 $998,000 $1,240,000 24.25%

Madness. Sheer madness, and I’ve been saying this for better part of a decade. It’s insane. So if you want to sell, check out my track record, and let’s get ‘er done in high fashion.

That’s all I have for you today. Finally some great weather out West Side of San Francisco, so get out and enjoy! Fall is in the air, cycling is great and getting crisp, surf is turning fun (water is warm too), and that means snow is on the way.

-Let’s be friends on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and/or LinkedIn…I’ll keep you updated on all things San Francisco Real Estate
Recent Sales [theFrontSteps]
The First Newsletter We Could Find (With Overbids)
Facebook Takes All of 432,000 Square Feet Commercial Space at 181 Fremont in San Francisco-The Registry
Facebook is dropping $35 million to lease a beautiful, earthquake-resistant skyscraper in San Francisco – take a look inside– Business Insider

It’s On! Tons of New Listings | A $12M Glen Park Estate For Sale | Overbids | Market Data, Data, Data

Oh my, oh my…it’s like a kid in a candy store. So many choices, what is one to do!? As of right now (12:10pm) there are 168 new listings that have hit MLS in the last 24hrs…that’s nuts, but expected.

There are some gems in the mix, like the most expensive home to hit MLS, 47 Chenery, an extraordinary 10 bedroom, 11 bath Neo-Classical Estate in Glen Park asking $12,500,000…are you kidding me!? Look at this place.


Not my style, but man – oh – man could King Louis be replaced with Maniscalco and call this place amazing!
[Update: You gotta read what Curbed has shared about this property.]

So many cool properties to check out, and not enough time to tell you about them all, so feel free to browse all the Hot New Listings right here.

Since it’s Friday, I know you all expect your weekly top 10 Overbids, so here you go… (important to note, the top 20 Overbids you find on this page runs on a 14 day cycle, whereas this list below I refine to the past 7 days):

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
1718 12th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 13 $1,195,000 $1,750,000 46.44%
2058 45th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 13 $799,000 $1,100,000 37.67%
1030 Ortega Street 2/1.00/N/A 8 $998,000 $1,368,000 37.07%
3550 22nd Street 3552 2-4 Units 35 $925,000 $1,200,000 29.73%
2007 28th Avenue 4/4.00/N/A 13 $968,000 $1,255,400 29.69%
3624 Folsom Street 3/2.00/N/A 7 $1,428,000 $1,850,000 29.55%
1500 Plymouth Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 5 $1,425,000 $1,810,000 27.02%
54 Howth Street 2/1.00/N/A 10 $799,000 $1,008,000 26.16%
28 Rebecca Lane 2/2.00/N/A 15 $699,000 $866,000 23.89%
1287 37th Avenue 4/2.00/N/A 0 $1,395,000 $1,710,000 22.58%

Finally, since it’s been so long, what the hell is the market doing?

On August 22nd Pacific Union released their July recap, and in so many words confirmed the strength of our market, “Home prices rose in all nine Bay Area counties on an annual basis, ranging from 1.3 percent in Contra Costa County to 12.7 percent in Sonoma County. For the second time this year, the median price in San Mateo County hit $1,500,000, tying its all-time high, according to historical housing-market data from CAR. Like last July, the Bay Area is home to California’s other three seven-digit housing markets: San Francisco ($1,428,000), Marin ($1,224,000), and Santa Clara ($1,165,000) counties.”

Keller Williams Report pretty much says the same thing, and if you want to go crazy nuts into detail, Patrick Carlisle over at Paragon Real Estate gives you more data and analysis than you could possibly ever want, and sums up nicely what has happened the past couple months, and what might be in store.

Generally speaking, late summer market dynamics (or, for that matter, during the mid-winter doldrums) are not of great significance and do not tell us much about where the market is heading. September, however, is usually the single month with the greatest number of new listings hitting the market in San Francisco, and that surge fuels sales through mid-November, when activity begins to plunge. The coming two months will be the next major indicator: Will the SF market continue to maintain the intense high-demand, low-supply heat of this past spring, or will it cool? While the entire market is affected by seasonality, the luxury home segment is fiercely so, and the next couple months will be the peak selling period for high-end homes until spring 2018 rolls around.

And if that’s not enough for you, you can always give me shout, buy me a beer, and I’ll be happy to share my two cents.

Happy Aloha Friday! Go play.

It’s Official, The Avenues Have Gone Bonkers…

San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids of the Week:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2658 40th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 8 $895,000 $1,350,000 50.84%
833 Head Street 3/1.25/N/A 12 $1,295,000 $1,910,000 47.49%
33 Idora Avenue 4/2.00/N/A 13 $1,095,000 $1,600,000 46.12%
231 Ney Street 3/2.00/N/A 12 $899,000 $1,280,000 42.38%
249 10th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 11 $1,349,000 $1,905,000 41.22%
2763 40th Avenue 4/2.00/N/A 14 $995,000 $1,370,000 37.69%
979 Teresita Boulevard 2/1.00/N/A 20 $799,000 $1,100,000 37.67%
1668 48th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 13 $895,000 $1,223,000 36.65%
2211 47th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 0 $899,000 $1,225,000 36.26%
321 Page Street 2/2.00/ 5 $1,195,000 $1,600,000 33.89%

SOLD | 2139 15th Ave | Inner Parkside | $1,850,000

Another multiple offer situation, another happy buyer thrilled to beat out 10 others for this amazing home at 2139 15th Ave in the Inner Parkside. It’s not easy to win as buyer in the Single Family market in San Francisco, but with the right strategy, right relationships, and right approach your odds increase tremendously.


My clients were lucky enough to win on their first offer, which is reason enough to celebrate.

Congratulations to everyone involved, and thanks to the other agent for a smooth and effortless transaction.

Property Details:
$1,850,000
4 bed
3 bath
1 parking
Remodeled Kitchen
Master Suite
2124 square feet
Hardwood Floors
Fireplace
Designer kitchen
Amazing Views
Decks
Landscaped Yard
Washer & Dryer

From the marketing:

This thoughtfully remodeled home honors the past with carefully preserved vintage details and old world charm throughout. The open arches in the living room, dining room and kitchen are masterfully placed to showcase a wall of west-facing windows and dazzling ocean views. The main level boasts two expansive bedrooms and an oversized hallway bathroom. The walkout deck on the lower level unfolds from a reimagined master suite added with permits in 2012. Similarly, the ensuite guest room on this level offers a quiet and serene retreat. A one car garage with interior access, a laundry vestibule adjacent the master suite, and landscaped front and rear gardens with drought resistant plants complete this remarkable home.

If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco/Bay Area real estate, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

2139 15th Ave Property Detail page

SOLD | 323 Church St. #A | Mission Dolores | $1,525,000

I’m pleased to report the successful off market close of my clients’ amazing condominium in a smooth and effortless transaction. Congratulations to the buyers, and my clients (the sellers). It has been a great deal all around.

Talk about a great location…

Remodeled in 2015 and only lived in by one owner since, this home has softwood floors, high ceilings & period details.

The light & airy living room has new double-paned windows & a decorative fireplace. The remodeled kitchen features Carrera marble counters, wood floors, stainless appliances, including a Bertazzoni Gas range & stackable washer & dryer. It has a lovely, separate dining area with soaring windows viewing lush greenery and open space. The kitchen leads onto a back staircase with easy access to the garden.

This flat features two lovely bedrooms and a home office/den. The tiled bathroom has a shower over bathtub & vanity. The lush common garden is perfect for entertaining. Deeded 1 car parking w/ additional storage. Walk score 98. 1 block to tech buses, shopping, MUNI & restaurants. Walk to Dolores Park, Valencia Corridor & Castro.

Property Details:
$1,525,000
NOT ON MLS
Victorian Flat
2 bedroom
1 bath
Den/Office
Soft & Hardwood floors
High Ceilings
Decorative Fireplace
Designer Lighting
Period Details
Double Paned Windows
Bertazzoni Range
Carrera Marble Countertops
Washer & Dryer
Parking
Shared Yard
Storage
A+++ Location

Exclusively listed by:
Alexander Clark
Keller Williams Luxury Realty International
theFrontSteps.com
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351

Top 10 Overbids And Some Very Interesting Outer Sunset / Parkside Data

It’s that time…

Top 10 Overbids Of the Week

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
165 Vasquez Avenue 3/1.25/N/A 12 $1,050,000 $1,703,000 62.19%
1846 38th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 12 $898,000 $1,255,000 39.76%
3537 Lawton Street 3/3.00/N/A 11 $1,095,000 $1,525,000 39.27%
1534 17th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 10 $995,000 $1,350,000 35.68%
2039 47th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 0 $895,000 $1,204,000 34.53%
176 Valmar Terrace 2/1.00/N/A 8 $599,000 $802,000 33.89%
153 Wool Street 2/2.00/N/A 1 $1,098,000 $1,450,000 32.06%
257 Richland Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 14 $999,000 $1,315,000 31.63%
1698 Armstrong Avenue 3/1.50/N/A 25 $895,000 $1,173,000 31.06%
229 Stanyan Street 3/2.50/N/A 13 $1,399,000 $1,825,000 30.45%

You might think a lot of emphasis is placed on the overbid and the shock and awe of these, and it is…and it should be. But stop for a minute and look at the bigger picture that is still unfolding. These ridiculous overbids happen by way of multiple offers. What does that mean in lay terms? There is more than one buyer interested in any one home at any one time. Usually, there are about 20-30 people interested, and in situations like this anywhere from 5-15 people actually throw their offer into the hat. And for the most part, these homes are nothing fancy, especially the top dog 165 Vasquez…it’s a “Fabulous Fixer” that sold for $1.7M.

Take it a step further and think about the “Outer” Avenues. The Western shore of San Francisco. The “Outerlands”. The sand dunes. The desolation. The edge of the Continent. The place nobody wanted to be, because it is “always foggy” (When I have listings out this way, people actually come up to me and ask, “Is it ever sunny out here?”…no joke). As it turns out, it’s the most popular place to buy in San Francisco at the moment (close second would be Bernal Heights). Why is that? It’s one of the few areas in San Francisco you can still get a single family home under $1.3M…barely.

Think back to 2014 when the average home in the Outer Avenues could be had for under $900,000 , and look at the four overbids on this top 10 list in the avenues, all trading well over $1.2M. It’s nuts! But it’s reality.

As a reference point, to make sure I wasn’t delusional, I pulled the averages for the Outer Sunset and Outer Parkside 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Have a look…

Type       Units Sold | List Price | Sqft | LPPSF| DOM | Sales Price | SPPSF

Single-Family | (142)  | $759,918 | 1358 | $595 | 34 | $854,982 | $670
Single-Family | (142) | $844,974 | 1365 | $645 | 25 | $1,012,097 | $771
Single-Family | (141) | $918,479 | 1398 | $689 | 29 | $1,080,833 | $808
Single-Family | (28) | $910,195 | 1237 | $778 | 31 | $1,076,107 | $906

It’s all very interesting…
Units Sold – almost identical every year.
List price – Creeped steadily up.
Average size of the home – down.
List Price – Up.
Days On Market – Hovering around 30.
Sales price – Climbing (remember 2017 is not even close to done).
And the last and easy to decipher for even the most data challenged person (like myself) Sales Price Per Square Foot – up nearly $240 per square foot on average.

Moral of the story, it’s hot in the Avenues right now. And the small to mid-size single family home market is sizzling. It might be time for you to sell, so give me a shout.

Anyhow, that’s it. Have a great holiday weekend! Enjoy the sun, surf, snow, greens, trails, whatever it is you love to do, and I’ll be back next week.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Report, March 2017

The San Francisco real estate market continues to experience strong buyer demand and an exceptionally low number of homes and condos for sale. The strong demand is supported by a clean sweep of positive economic indicators just posted by The Conference Board, which reported that consumer confidence is at a 15 year high, and the Leading Economic Index, CEO Confidence, Help-Wanted Online, and the Employment Trends Index all rose in February.

Following the incredibly strong Snap IPO, Mulesoft, a San Francisco unicorn, filed for its IPO in February. This San Francisco-based company has over 700 employees who will be armed with a lot of cash following its IPO, anticipated later this year, which could further add to the number of buyers competing for properties.

The Federal Reserve Bank has said it is likely to raise its federal funds rate in March, with a second increase anticipated later in the year. These anticipated rate increases have already triggered a jump in mortgage rates, which now stand at 4.24% according to Mortgage News Daily.

In the following Infographic we see that the San Francisco single family home market dipped in median sales price, down 8.2% year-on-year. The number of sales were up 3.9%. The number of new listings dropped sharply, 37.6% fewer than last February, leading to a 10% drop in inventory to just 1.5 months of supply, which IMHO is correlating precisely with the “in the trenches” real-time buyer demand and multiple offer activity that we agents are experiencing first hand, but is yet to be shown on this “historical” data. The median sales price of single family homes also continues to be bid up above list price, coming in at 113% for February.

The news in condo/lofts sales is the sharp decline in the number of new listings in February, down 26.9% compared to last year. Sales were also down, but just by 10.3%. Inventory stands at only 2.1 months of supply. Median sales prices are up 4.9% year-on-year with the median price going 1.6% above list price.

Top 10 Overbids | San Francisco Week Ending 3/10/17

This week’s top 10 list of mind-bending overbids looks like a tour around the world – Cambridge, Greenwich, Jersey, Munich. Alas we’re still in San Francisco, Dorothy.

San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
657 Cambridge Street 3/2.00/N/A 20 $950,000 $1,300,000 36.84%
2643 Greenwich Street 2645 2-4 Units 7 $1,595,000 $2,100,000 31.66%
1494 42nd Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 12 $788,000 $1,036,000 31.47%
431 Jersey 3/1.50/N/A 10 $1,795,000 $2,225,000 23.96%
829 Cole Street 2/2.00/ 9 $1,299,000 $1,610,000 23.94%
563 Munich Street 2/1.00/N/A 13 $799,000 $985,000 23.28%
945 Capp Street 2/1.00/4 13 $898,000 $1,100,000 22.49%
4106 20th Street 3/2.00/N/A 0 $1,750,000 $2,137,500 22.14%
218 Grafton Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 34 $625,000 $762,000 21.92%
26 Caine Avenue 4/3.00/N/A 12 $799,000 $970,000 21.40%

I say “mind-bending” mostly because it is still alarming our market works so incredibly efficiently by generally under-pricing properties to let buyers take it to market value, and it’s worked this way for the better part of a decade. By all accounts 99% of every overbid appraises at value when it comes time to get a loan. So don’t think every buyer is paying more than what a property is worth, just to win. They aren’t. They’re paying market value…in most cases. There are outliers, for sure, but for the most part, just because it’s an overbid, doesn’t mean it is overvalued.

As always, for a list of the top 20 Overbids, Top 20 Underbids, Recent Sales, New Listings, and Stalefish, check out my Market Tracker at www.thegoods-sf.com/theFrontSteps. Important to note, the Goods runs a 14 day tally, my tally here is on a 7 day cycle, so there will be some slight variations.

Thinking about selling your property to cash in and get out on top? I’d be happy to help. Just give me a shout.

Marina / Cow Hollow Property Gets $1,200,000 More Than Asking

If you haven’t noticed, posts on this here site have been sporadic to say the least, and will remain so for the rest of the year. That said, I couldn’t help but share this Cow Hollow/Marina District property at 1959 Lombard that just closed for $1,200,000 over the list price!
lombard

For you Commercial geeks, the cap rate on this bad boy is a 2.69%! And “long-term” tenants mean 1 of 2 things…potential to increase rents, or potential to increase headaches. Regardless, somebody saw great value in this building (as they should), and IMHO should be thrilled.

Underpriced? Probably. But let’s consider the larger market logic that compels someone to not only list a property more than one million dollars below market value (when you just don’t know you gotta price it low), but the psychology as an agent that must convince a buyer to offer $1,200,000 MORE than what the seller is “asking”, and the buyer that has to come to grips with that reality.

I’ve been in this game for nearly 15 years now, been through two monstrous peaks and subsequent declines, and some things just haven’t changed…namely San Francisco has long been a premier destination to call home, start a business, raise a family, and invest in real estate. Surrounded by water on three sides, heavily restricted on vertical development, and historical preservation, it’s just that tough to get your hands on some choice San Francisco property.

Pray for snow! Dream of surf. Enjoy the day.

The Goods: Real-Time market data for my clients

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In San Francisco More Households Making Over $150,000/year Choose To Rent Than To Own

Check out this report the kind folks over at RentCafe just sent me:

“With all the talk about renters being squeezed out of the housing market and new high-end construction pushing up rents, we’ve decided to take a close-up look at Census data and see who’s actually driving today’s rental marketplace. We’ve put all our findings in this report here, in case you might be interested in checking them out and perhaps sharing the story with your readers.
rentcafe
While affordability remains a major concern for many low-income renters, there’s a growing number of people that know nothing of – nor care about – the “30% of income on rent” rule of thumb. In fact, there’s a market for wealthy renters and it’s not lacking in demand!

The number of renter households that earn more than $150,000/year increased by 217% in 2015 compared to 2005, with a whopping 1.2 million affluent households joining the ever-growing rental pool in the last decade. Meanwhile, the number of homeowner households within the same income bracket has increased by a much lower 82%.

When broken down by city, things are even more surprising:
– Fort Worth leads the charts with a spectacular 77% increase in the number of high-income renters from 2014 to 2015.
San Francisco may be the second-most expensive rental market in the US – with a startling $3,472 in average monthly rent – but it’s also home to the second-largest number of renters that earn more than 150,000/year: 57K (who also outnumber wealthy homeowners in the city by 4%). That means that nearly 25% of all renter households in San Francisco are in the upper income bracket – the largest share of rich renters/city in the nation.
– Los Angeles has the third-highest number of wealthy renters in the country, approx. 51K, an 8% increase between 2014 and 2015. Still, the majority of LA renters (59.7%) earn less than 50,000/year.
– NYC is the mecca of people with big paychecks – not much of a surprise there. But did you know the Big Apple is home to approx. 212,000 renters that earn more than 150,000/year (approx. 10% of the total renter population)? That’s nearly four times more than the number of high-earning renters that call San Francisco home and 12 times the number of Boston’s affluent renters.”

The report – which you can find here: http://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/luxury-apartments/1-2-million-more-wealthy-renters-in-10-years/ – contains many more interesting facts and findings (plus some really cool visuals), that will certainly help you gauge local and national real estate economies.

Thanks for sending my way…makes you wonder why so many of those high income earners choose to rent as opposed to buy.