Top 10 Overbids And Some Very Interesting Outer Sunset / Parkside Data

It’s that time…

Top 10 Overbids Of the Week

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
165 Vasquez Avenue 3/1.25/N/A 12 $1,050,000 $1,703,000 62.19%
1846 38th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 12 $898,000 $1,255,000 39.76%
3537 Lawton Street 3/3.00/N/A 11 $1,095,000 $1,525,000 39.27%
1534 17th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 10 $995,000 $1,350,000 35.68%
2039 47th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 0 $895,000 $1,204,000 34.53%
176 Valmar Terrace 2/1.00/N/A 8 $599,000 $802,000 33.89%
153 Wool Street 2/2.00/N/A 1 $1,098,000 $1,450,000 32.06%
257 Richland Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 14 $999,000 $1,315,000 31.63%
1698 Armstrong Avenue 3/1.50/N/A 25 $895,000 $1,173,000 31.06%
229 Stanyan Street 3/2.50/N/A 13 $1,399,000 $1,825,000 30.45%

You might think a lot of emphasis is placed on the overbid and the shock and awe of these, and it is…and it should be. But stop for a minute and look at the bigger picture that is still unfolding. These ridiculous overbids happen by way of multiple offers. What does that mean in lay terms? There is more than one buyer interested in any one home at any one time. Usually, there are about 20-30 people interested, and in situations like this anywhere from 5-15 people actually throw their offer into the hat. And for the most part, these homes are nothing fancy, especially the top dog 165 Vasquez…it’s a “Fabulous Fixer” that sold for $1.7M.

Take it a step further and think about the “Outer” Avenues. The Western shore of San Francisco. The “Outerlands”. The sand dunes. The desolation. The edge of the Continent. The place nobody wanted to be, because it is “always foggy” (When I have listings out this way, people actually come up to me and ask, “Is it ever sunny out here?”…no joke). As it turns out, it’s the most popular place to buy in San Francisco at the moment (close second would be Bernal Heights). Why is that? It’s one of the few areas in San Francisco you can still get a single family home under $1.3M…barely.

Think back to 2014 when the average home in the Outer Avenues could be had for under $900,000 , and look at the four overbids on this top 10 list in the avenues, all trading well over $1.2M. It’s nuts! But it’s reality.

As a reference point, to make sure I wasn’t delusional, I pulled the averages for the Outer Sunset and Outer Parkside 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Have a look…

Type       Units Sold | List Price | Sqft | LPPSF| DOM | Sales Price | SPPSF

Single-Family | (142)  | $759,918 | 1358 | $595 | 34 | $854,982 | $670
Single-Family | (142) | $844,974 | 1365 | $645 | 25 | $1,012,097 | $771
Single-Family | (141) | $918,479 | 1398 | $689 | 29 | $1,080,833 | $808
Single-Family | (28) | $910,195 | 1237 | $778 | 31 | $1,076,107 | $906

It’s all very interesting…
Units Sold – almost identical every year.
List price – Creeped steadily up.
Average size of the home – down.
List Price – Up.
Days On Market – Hovering around 30.
Sales price – Climbing (remember 2017 is not even close to done).
And the last and easy to decipher for even the most data challenged person (like myself) Sales Price Per Square Foot – up nearly $240 per square foot on average.

Moral of the story, it’s hot in the Avenues right now. And the small to mid-size single family home market is sizzling. It might be time for you to sell, so give me a shout.

Anyhow, that’s it. Have a great holiday weekend! Enjoy the sun, surf, snow, greens, trails, whatever it is you love to do, and I’ll be back next week.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Report, March 2017

The San Francisco real estate market continues to experience strong buyer demand and an exceptionally low number of homes and condos for sale. The strong demand is supported by a clean sweep of positive economic indicators just posted by The Conference Board, which reported that consumer confidence is at a 15 year high, and the Leading Economic Index, CEO Confidence, Help-Wanted Online, and the Employment Trends Index all rose in February.

Following the incredibly strong Snap IPO, Mulesoft, a San Francisco unicorn, filed for its IPO in February. This San Francisco-based company has over 700 employees who will be armed with a lot of cash following its IPO, anticipated later this year, which could further add to the number of buyers competing for properties.

The Federal Reserve Bank has said it is likely to raise its federal funds rate in March, with a second increase anticipated later in the year. These anticipated rate increases have already triggered a jump in mortgage rates, which now stand at 4.24% according to Mortgage News Daily.

In the following Infographic we see that the San Francisco single family home market dipped in median sales price, down 8.2% year-on-year. The number of sales were up 3.9%. The number of new listings dropped sharply, 37.6% fewer than last February, leading to a 10% drop in inventory to just 1.5 months of supply, which IMHO is correlating precisely with the “in the trenches” real-time buyer demand and multiple offer activity that we agents are experiencing first hand, but is yet to be shown on this “historical” data. The median sales price of single family homes also continues to be bid up above list price, coming in at 113% for February.

The news in condo/lofts sales is the sharp decline in the number of new listings in February, down 26.9% compared to last year. Sales were also down, but just by 10.3%. Inventory stands at only 2.1 months of supply. Median sales prices are up 4.9% year-on-year with the median price going 1.6% above list price.

Top 10 Overbids | San Francisco Week Ending 3/10/17

This week’s top 10 list of mind-bending overbids looks like a tour around the world – Cambridge, Greenwich, Jersey, Munich. Alas we’re still in San Francisco, Dorothy.

San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
657 Cambridge Street 3/2.00/N/A 20 $950,000 $1,300,000 36.84%
2643 Greenwich Street 2645 2-4 Units 7 $1,595,000 $2,100,000 31.66%
1494 42nd Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 12 $788,000 $1,036,000 31.47%
431 Jersey 3/1.50/N/A 10 $1,795,000 $2,225,000 23.96%
829 Cole Street 2/2.00/ 9 $1,299,000 $1,610,000 23.94%
563 Munich Street 2/1.00/N/A 13 $799,000 $985,000 23.28%
945 Capp Street 2/1.00/4 13 $898,000 $1,100,000 22.49%
4106 20th Street 3/2.00/N/A 0 $1,750,000 $2,137,500 22.14%
218 Grafton Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 34 $625,000 $762,000 21.92%
26 Caine Avenue 4/3.00/N/A 12 $799,000 $970,000 21.40%

I say “mind-bending” mostly because it is still alarming our market works so incredibly efficiently by generally under-pricing properties to let buyers take it to market value, and it’s worked this way for the better part of a decade. By all accounts 99% of every overbid appraises at value when it comes time to get a loan. So don’t think every buyer is paying more than what a property is worth, just to win. They aren’t. They’re paying market value…in most cases. There are outliers, for sure, but for the most part, just because it’s an overbid, doesn’t mean it is overvalued.

As always, for a list of the top 20 Overbids, Top 20 Underbids, Recent Sales, New Listings, and Stalefish, check out my Market Tracker at www.thegoods-sf.com/theFrontSteps. Important to note, the Goods runs a 14 day tally, my tally here is on a 7 day cycle, so there will be some slight variations.

Thinking about selling your property to cash in and get out on top? I’d be happy to help. Just give me a shout.

Marina / Cow Hollow Property Gets $1,200,000 More Than Asking

If you haven’t noticed, posts on this here site have been sporadic to say the least, and will remain so for the rest of the year. That said, I couldn’t help but share this Cow Hollow/Marina District property at 1959 Lombard that just closed for $1,200,000 over the list price!
lombard

For you Commercial geeks, the cap rate on this bad boy is a 2.69%! And “long-term” tenants mean 1 of 2 things…potential to increase rents, or potential to increase headaches. Regardless, somebody saw great value in this building (as they should), and IMHO should be thrilled.

Underpriced? Probably. But let’s consider the larger market logic that compels someone to not only list a property more than one million dollars below market value (when you just don’t know you gotta price it low), but the psychology as an agent that must convince a buyer to offer $1,200,000 MORE than what the seller is “asking”, and the buyer that has to come to grips with that reality.

I’ve been in this game for nearly 15 years now, been through two monstrous peaks and subsequent declines, and some things just haven’t changed…namely San Francisco has long been a premier destination to call home, start a business, raise a family, and invest in real estate. Surrounded by water on three sides, heavily restricted on vertical development, and historical preservation, it’s just that tough to get your hands on some choice San Francisco property.

Pray for snow! Dream of surf. Enjoy the day.

The Goods: Real-Time market data for my clients

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In San Francisco More Households Making Over $150,000/year Choose To Rent Than To Own

Check out this report the kind folks over at RentCafe just sent me:

“With all the talk about renters being squeezed out of the housing market and new high-end construction pushing up rents, we’ve decided to take a close-up look at Census data and see who’s actually driving today’s rental marketplace. We’ve put all our findings in this report here, in case you might be interested in checking them out and perhaps sharing the story with your readers.
rentcafe
While affordability remains a major concern for many low-income renters, there’s a growing number of people that know nothing of – nor care about – the “30% of income on rent” rule of thumb. In fact, there’s a market for wealthy renters and it’s not lacking in demand!

The number of renter households that earn more than $150,000/year increased by 217% in 2015 compared to 2005, with a whopping 1.2 million affluent households joining the ever-growing rental pool in the last decade. Meanwhile, the number of homeowner households within the same income bracket has increased by a much lower 82%.

When broken down by city, things are even more surprising:
– Fort Worth leads the charts with a spectacular 77% increase in the number of high-income renters from 2014 to 2015.
San Francisco may be the second-most expensive rental market in the US – with a startling $3,472 in average monthly rent – but it’s also home to the second-largest number of renters that earn more than 150,000/year: 57K (who also outnumber wealthy homeowners in the city by 4%). That means that nearly 25% of all renter households in San Francisco are in the upper income bracket – the largest share of rich renters/city in the nation.
– Los Angeles has the third-highest number of wealthy renters in the country, approx. 51K, an 8% increase between 2014 and 2015. Still, the majority of LA renters (59.7%) earn less than 50,000/year.
– NYC is the mecca of people with big paychecks – not much of a surprise there. But did you know the Big Apple is home to approx. 212,000 renters that earn more than 150,000/year (approx. 10% of the total renter population)? That’s nearly four times more than the number of high-earning renters that call San Francisco home and 12 times the number of Boston’s affluent renters.”

The report – which you can find here: http://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/luxury-apartments/1-2-million-more-wealthy-renters-in-10-years/ – contains many more interesting facts and findings (plus some really cool visuals), that will certainly help you gauge local and national real estate economies.

Thanks for sending my way…makes you wonder why so many of those high income earners choose to rent as opposed to buy.

Weekly Tally Of Top 10 Underbids

I use the term “weekly” very loosely, but at least you’re seeing Underbids!

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
74 Farview Court 2 1.00 2 $899,900 $800,000 -11.10 %
240 Liberty Street 2 1.00 1 $995,000 $890,000 -10.55 %
809-811 Pierce Street N/A N/A 2 $3,500,000 $3,200,000 -8.57 %
101-103 St Marys Avenue N/A N/A 1 $899,000 $825,000 -8.23 %
550 Davis Street 3 2.50 1 $2,800,000 $2,600,000 -7.14 %
2425 Francisco 3 2.00 1 $2,245,000 $2,100,000 -6.46 %
2937 Webster Street 3 2.00 1 $1,595,000 $1,500,000 -5.96 %
402 8th Avenue 2 2.00 1 $828,000 $780,000 -5.80 %
83 McAllister Street 2 1.00 0 $599,000 $565,000 -5.68 %
1537-1539 Mason Street N/A N/A 2 $1,800,000 $1,700,000 -5.56 %

Why the picture of the elevator buttons? To know which floor at 240 Liberty (#2 on the list) you’d be living on, of course.

If It’s Not Selling Over, It’s Selling Under

Top 10 Underbids in San Francisco this past week:

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
1219-1219A Stanyan Street N/A N/A 2 $2,579,000 $2,100,000 -18.57 %
1111 Bay Street 2 2.00 1 $1,199,000 $1,000,000 -16.60 %
677 Ellis Street N/A N/A 0 $2,695,000 $2,275,000 -15.58 %
338 Spear Street 2 2.00 1 $1,999,999 $1,799,000 -10.05 %
39 Carmel Street 2 2.00 1 $1,995,000 $1,800,000 -9.77 %
21 Dalewood Way 2 1.00 1 $995,000 $915,000 -8.04 %
3959-3961 Washington Street N/A N/A 1 $5,300,000 $4,995,000 -5.75 %
1650 Broadway 3 2.50 2 $5,395,000 $5,100,000 -5.47 %
354 Roosevelt Way 3 3.00 1 $1,795,000 $1,700,000 -5.29 %
1450 Post Street 2 2.00 1 $709,000 $675,000 -4.80 %

SOLD | 1011 23rd St. #10 | Dogpatch | $740,000

Dogpatch, San Francisco: according to Wikipedia “is located on the eastern side of the city, adjacent to the waterfront of the San Francisco Bay, and to the East of Potrero Hill. Its boundaries are Mariposa Street to the North, I-280 to the West, Cesar Chavez to the South, and the waterfront to the East. It contains housing, some remaining heavy industry, more recent light industry, and a new but growing arts district. In 2002 it became an officially designated historic district of the city of San Francisco….[and] there is no definitive explanation for the name

One thing we know for certain, Dogpatch

May 2016 Central San Francisco Market Conditions

District 5

District 5’s (See SF Districts Map Here) April numbers continue their strong upwards trend with their highest ever median sales price of $2,287,500. Year-over-year, the median price is up 8.9%.

d5_1

Resale Condo/Loft Median Prices

Resale condo-loft median prices have resumed the downward trend that started last September with a brief uptick in January and February. hey dropped 2.3% from March to April, landing at $1,245,000, which is the lowest median sales price since April 2015. They are down 0.4% year-to-date and 9.6% since their peak at $1,377,000 September 2015.

d5_2

d5_3

While Single Family Homes Days on Market inched up to 17 in April, they are still at historically low numbers.

Days on Market for Resale Condo/Lofts dropped from 19 to 16.

d5_4

Single Family Homes Months Supply of Inventory dropped slightly to 2.4 from March’s 2.5 and up from April, 2015’s 1.7.

d5_5

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This April there were the same number of single family home listings as in April, 2015. Over all, there have been 136 new listings in District 5 this year, one fewer than last year.

There have been 43 fewer condo/loft listings brought on the market year-to-date in 2016 than 2015. This is a 26% drop. And this is the first time in four years that the number of new condo/loft listings was lower in April than March.

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The Itsy Bitsy Teenie Weenie Million Dollar Beach Bungalow

It’s official…in San Francisco a million bucks barely buys you an (almost on the beach) beach bungalow…actually you need $1,050,000…and depending on what size waves you’re thinking of surfing at the most popular surf spot north of San Diego, you’ll want to consider ultra custom space-saving racks.

In case you’re wondering, it was listed at $699,000. It is close enough to catch the blowing Springtime Sand, so I guess you can call it a “beach bungalow”.

Surf is not up this weekend in San Francisco (Surprise!), but surely you know a friend with a boat. Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Top 20 Overbids, Underbids, and so much more, right here on The Goods.

3434 Rivera, Street, San Francisco [Property Detail Page]