District 5

May 2016 Central San Francisco Market Conditions

District 5

District 5’s (See SF Districts Map Here) April numbers continue their strong upwards trend with their highest ever median sales price of $2,287,500. Year-over-year, the median price is up 8.9%.

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Resale Condo/Loft Median Prices

Resale condo-loft median prices have resumed the downward trend that started last September with a brief uptick in January and February. hey dropped 2.3% from March to April, landing at $1,245,000, which is the lowest median sales price since April 2015. They are down 0.4% year-to-date and 9.6% since their peak at $1,377,000 September 2015.

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While Single Family Homes Days on Market inched up to 17 in April, they are still at historically low numbers.

Days on Market for Resale Condo/Lofts dropped from 19 to 16.

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Single Family Homes Months Supply of Inventory dropped slightly to 2.4 from March’s 2.5 and up from April, 2015’s 1.7.

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This April there were the same number of single family home listings as in April, 2015. Over all, there have been 136 new listings in District 5 this year, one fewer than last year.

There have been 43 fewer condo/loft listings brought on the market year-to-date in 2016 than 2015. This is a 26% drop. And this is the first time in four years that the number of new condo/loft listings was lower in April than March.

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The Itsy Bitsy Teenie Weenie Million Dollar Beach Bungalow

It’s official…in San Francisco a million bucks barely buys you an (almost on the beach) beach bungalow…actually you need $1,050,000…and depending on what size waves you’re thinking of surfing at the most popular surf spot north of San Diego, you’ll want to consider ultra custom space-saving racks.

In case you’re wondering, it was listed at $699,000. It is close enough to catch the blowing Springtime Sand, so I guess you can call it a “beach bungalow”.

Surf is not up this weekend in San Francisco (Surprise!), but surely you know a friend with a boat. Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Top 20 Overbids, Underbids, and so much more, right here on The Goods.

3434 Rivera, Street, San Francisco [Property Detail Page]

2170 Jackson St

Pacific Heights Co-Op Asks $4.2M Gets $3.8M, And Those Views…

Some things just never get old (like me), and some things never go out of style, like 2170 Jackson #3, which clinched this week’s top spot on our Underbid list by selling 10.59% under it’s $4,250,000 asking price at a cool $3,800,000.


I can hear you all gasping either sighs of relief, gasps of ahhh, or whispers of “what would it be like”…Regardless, amazing property, amazing location, and hats off to all involved, underbid or not.

As for the rest:
Top 10 Underbids, San Francisco

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
2170 Jackson Street #3 4 3.50 1 $4,250,000 $3,800,000 -10.59 %
347 Santa Ana Ave 6 3.25 2 $2,495,000 $2,250,000 -9.82 %
240 Flournoy Street 3 1.00 1 $550,000 $500,000 -9.09 %
881 Lombard Street N/A N/A 1 $1,800,000 $1,639,547 -8.91 %
338 Spear Street 2 2.00 1 $2,850,000 $2,600,000 -8.77 %
333 Diamond Street 3 2.00 2 $1,899,000 $1,750,000 -7.85 %
3354 20th Street 3 3.00 1 $2,395,000 $2,225,000 -7.10 %
159 Dublin Street 3 1.00 1 $689,900 $650,000 -5.78 %
330 Twin Peaks Blvd 3 2.50 2 $1,799,000 $1,700,000 -5.50 %
733-743 Waller St N/A N/A N/A $3,850,000 $3,656,250 -5.03 %

This is a very telling list, and a very good sampling of citywide deals that go unreported to you and your friends. There are deals to be had, you must simply be persistent and keep at it. This is an amazing City, and I’m betting it’s just going to keep getting better and better.

Have a great day!

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Top 10 Underbids | A Medley Of Sorts

When I peruse these top 10 Overbid and Underbid lists that we crank out at The Goods for all of our clients (myself included), I often sit and wonder what is more of a story:


A) The ultra modern residence at 748 Treat that clinched this week’s top Underbid spot by selling for nearly 7% below asking (not much of a story here),
B) The big ticket sale at 3876 Clay, which, although sold for under asking, still sold for $1300+ per square foot (I vividly remember the days we started seeing $1000/square foot on the radar, which now seems like a distant memory),
C) What you get for under $700,000 in San Francisco in the single family home category, or
D) How when we live in small spaces that are insanely expensive some of us are forced to store our “wine cellar” next to our shoes.

Regardless, it’s all good information, provides you some insight into the market, your neighborhood, San Francisco, and what you have to do to get your foot in our Real Estate door, or that now might be a great time for you to get out. Food for thought, on a weekly basis…

Top 10 Underbids San Francisco

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
748 Treat Avenue 4 3.50 1 $2,199,000 $2,050,000 -6.78 %
326 Noriega Street 4 3.00 1 $1,475,000 $1,400,000 -5.08 %
3876 Clay Street 4 2.50 2 $4,175,000 $4,035,000 -3.35 %
2107 16th Avenue 2 2.00 1 $930,000 $900,000 -3.23 %
3305 Broderick Street 3 3.50 1 $3,150,000 $3,050,000 -3.17 %
68 McCoppin Street 1 1.00 1 $749,000 $728,000 -2.80 %
1750 Taylor Street 2 2.00 1 $2,695,000 $2,627,625 -2.50 %
8 Buchanan Street 2 2.00 1 $1,155,000 $1,130,000 -2.16 %
718 Joost Avenue 1 1.00 0 $695,000 $680,000 -2.16 %
355 Grove Street 5+ unit 5+ unit 1 $5,988,000 $5,860,000 -2.14 %

Have a great day!

227547thave

Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Outer Parkside

It had to be the lion blanket, because apparently the original $1,099,000 list price wasn’t enough to entice the frenzy. So what happened? Price reduced to $995,000, and look at that…sold for $1,225,000. In case you missed that, that’s higher than the previous list price two short months prior, at which this home was unable to find a buyer. Some things in life simply make no sense.

Anyhow, here are the Top 10 Overbids for the past week in San Francisco

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2275 47th Avenue 4/2.50/N/A 88 $995,000 $1,225,000 23.12%
1655 48th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 14 $629,000 $762,000 21.14%
471 23rd Avenue 2/1.00/6 33 $688,000 $810,000 17.73%
988 Fulton Street 1/1.00/326 60 $474,000 $555,000 17.09%
1055 Mason Street N/A/N/A/19 18 $5,000,000 $5,800,000 16.00%
149 Laidley 3/2.00/N/A 25 $1,695,000 $1,950,000 15.04%
2908 Fulton Street 2914 2-4 Units 49 $1,290,000 $1,473,000 14.19%
448 Gold Mine Drive 4/3.00/N/A 12 $1,395,000 $1,558,000 11.68%
2130 12th Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 52 $899,000 $1,000,000 11.23%
30 Otsego Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,199,000 $1,300,000 8.42%

Have a great weekend!

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$2,000,000 Under Asking In Pacific Heights…Actually $1,925,000 But Who’s Counting

If that $200,000 underbid from a few weeks ago seems like a good deal to you, have a look at this seven bedroom Pacific Heights Single Family home at 2660 Scott (you must click that link…the pictures are amazing), which was listed in September at $15,000,000 and closed last week at $13,075,000. Almost $2,000,000 under asking.
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Considering the home only last sold in 2004 for just shy of $6,000,000 I’d say the sellers are pretty thrilled (keeping in mind we don’t know how much they sunk into it, of course). IMHO the home was worth every penny of $15,000,000, so the buyers should be thrilled too. It’s a trophy home, and I’m totally jealous, as should be all of you.
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As for the rest of our weekly underbids. Here you go…the top 10 Underbids of the week.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2660 Scott Street 7/7/6 $15,000,000 $13,075,000 -12.83 %
814-816 Cole 2-4 Units $1,990,000 $1,775,000 -10.80 %
1374 Union Street 3/3.5/2 $3,350,000 $3,000,000 -10.45 %
184 London Street 3/1/0 $574,000 $520,000 -9.41 %
365 Magellan Avenue 5/3.5/2 $2,520,000 $2,350,000 -6.75 %
601 Van Ness Avenue 2/2/1 $879,000 $825,000 -6.14 %
595 Waller Street 3/2/0 $1,300,000 $1,225,000 -5.77 %
2445 Polk Street 2/2/1 $1,450,000 $1,371,150 -5.44 %
3515 Washington Street 2/2/2 $3,995,000 $3,800,000 -4.88 %
580 Prentiss Street 2/1/1 $998,000 $950,000 -4.81 %

As always, I share all of this wonderful data with you in real time on several sources:
1. The Goods
2. sfnewsletter (sign up at sfnewsletter.com)
3. theFrontSteps.com

Get this stuff bookmarked, sign up to receive via email, follow me on Facebook, Twitter @theFrontSteps, LinkedIn. Do what you gotta do to get yourself educated on our market.

And have a great day.

2660 Scott, Property Detail Page

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San Francisco | December 2015 Real Estate Market Update

San Francisco Real Estate Report, December 2015 Market Update.
– Heading into the Holiday Slowdown after an Interesting Autumn Market
– Median home prices, over-bidding, housing affordability, luxury home sales, the new-home construction pipeline, and comparing the Shanghai and S&P 500 stock indices

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Median sales prices in October and November jumped back up to levels similar to the spring peak selling season. It’s important to remember that median prices are not a perfect reflection of changes in fair market value: They often fluctuate due to seasonal inventory and buyer-profile trends, as well as issues such as an influx of new-construction listings. It is the longer-term trend that is most meaningful – however we can say with confidence that there was clearly no significant “crash” in prices this past autumn.

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One indication of the heat of the market is the extent to which sales prices are bid up over asking prices. As is not untypical, the market becomes less competitive in November as it heads into the winter holidays. Still, an average sales price 6% over asking price would be considered crazy-hot in any other market in the country (though one also has to adjust for the fact that serious underpricing has become a not uncommon listing strategy in the SF market).

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This chart based on S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index data illustrates the seasonality of home price appreciation in the past 4 years: surging in our feverish spring selling seasons, and then generally plateauing through the rest of the year. Note that Case-Shiller looks at home prices in a totally different way than median sales price trends, and probably reflects changes in fair market value more accurately. Case-Shiller Index numbers refer back to a January 2000 value of 100, thus the current Index reading for higher-priced Bay Area homes of 217 signifies home prices 117% above January 2000.

As we enter the winter holiday market slowdown, the next real indication of the direction of the market will come in the first quarter of 2016. Will spring 2016 repeat the overheated, high demand/ low supply frenzies of previous springs or has the market finally reached a longer term plateau or even an affordability inflection point? We shall soon know more.

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In 2015 YTD, the dominant price segment for home sales in San Francisco was $1,000,000 to $1,499,000. As seen in the first chart above, the median sales prices for both condos and houses fall within this range. Note the change from just two years ago.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Market

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The high-end home market is the most seasonal segment in the city (as well as the most sensitive to sudden, large, negative movements in the financial markets). Market activity starts to plunge in November, hits its nadir in December, begins to pick up in the first quarter and then usually hits its peak in spring. Much of the center of gravity in the luxury market has been shifting in recent years from the city’s prestige northern neighborhoods to other districts of the city, such as the greater Noe Valley area and the South Beach/Yerba Buena district. This is not to say that the northern districts are not still both very expensive and considered highly desirable, and the greater Pacific Heights area still dominates the market for the most expensive houses in the city, i.e. those selling for $5m and more.

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After the semi-hysteria – already half forgotten – that erupted in late August and September regarding the Chinese stock market and its impact on the U.S. stock market and economy, and possibly the Bay Area housing market, we thought it interesting to take a look back at how it has played out so far.

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It is widely expected that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, probably by some minimal increment, but for the time being, as of the first week of December, rates have remained below 4%.

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In November, we issued two mini-reports, one on Bay Area housing affordability and another on San Francisco new housing construction. Below are the featured charts:

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I’ll continue to keep an eye on things for you, if you continue to read it.

Expect much lighter than usual blogging for the rest of the year, and don’t be surprised if theFrontSteps goes under construction.

Contact me today for a free property valuation, or to get you set up on my buyer system.

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Mission To Millennium | SF’s Top 10 Underbids of the Week

The top underbid of the week goes to an Outer Mission single family home that (dare we say) needs a bit of work. Listed for $699,000 and sold for $575,000 after 62 days on the market. According to our data from last week, single family homes continue to take up the majority of the top 10 underbid slots: 50% single family homes, 30% multi-units, and 20% condo.

As we get into the winter months, we are seeing luxury homes cooling down but affordable homes remaining competitive. One other notable Underbid is this wonderful Millennium Tower residence with million dollar water and landmark views on both sides of the Bay. Listed at $4.588M and sold for $4.18M after 122 days. Still a win, IMO.

As for the rest, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2220 Cayuga Avenue 1/1/1 $699,000 $575,000 -17.74 %
161-165 Cook Street 2-4 Units $2,395,000 $2,150,000 -10.23 %
2287 16th Avenue 4/2/2 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 -9.94 %
18 Kronquist Court 4/2/1 $1,899,000 $1,725,000 -9.16 %
301 Mission Street #49D 2/3/2 $4,588,000 $4,180,000 -8.89 %
78 Gladys Street 3/2/0 $1,195,000 $1,100,000 -7.95 %
1437 47th Avenue 1437A 2-4 Units $1,275,000 $1,175,000 -7.84 %
2829 Pierce Street 2831 2-4 Units $2,970,000 $2,750,000 -7.41 %
3260 Baker Street 3/2/2 $2,999,000 $2,800,000 -6.64 %
2040 Franklin Street #506 0/1/1 $575,000 $540,000 -6.09 %

As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market, your home, homes in your area, or real estate referrals around the world, I am here to help. Just give me a shout by choosing any of the “contact” options all over this site.

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August Case-Shiller Index | San Francisco Bay Area

The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for August was just released on Tuesday. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations are common and not particularly meaningful until substantiated by a longer-term trend.

Since Case-Shiller’s SF Metro Area covers 5 counties, it should be noted that not all the markets within the Area move in lockstep: activity and appreciation rates can vary significantly.

As is clearly illustrated below, for the past 4 years, spring has been the big driver of home-price appreciation. Prices generally plateau in subsequent seasons until the next spring arrives. For the past couple years, the spring selling season has started very early, in late January or early February, due to the incredible weather we’ve had in those months. El Niňo, if it arrives, might move the spring pick-up in sales back to mid-March/early April in 2016.

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This second chart illustrates the huge burst in prices this past spring. It’s not unusual for the market to slump a little during the summer holidays, almost in exhaustion after the spring frenzy. We’ll have more autumn statistics soon when October’s MLS data comes in, but Paragon has been experiencing its most active autumn selling season in its history in 2015.

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And here are 3 longer-term charts for each of the 3 Case-Shiller price tiers for the 5-county San Francisco metro statistical area. As can be seen, the different price tiers had bubbles and crashes of radically different magnitudes in 2006 – 2009, but as far as total appreciation since the year 2000, all of them display very similar appreciation rates.

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That ought to do it for your data craving for a while. You might consider following this blog via email (link below) or get on the Twitter train @theFrontSteps, so you don’t miss a beat of San Francisco Real Estate.

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#2 Maximum Overbid Of The Week, Because The #1 Is Too Common

I’m going to go ahead and skip the #1 at 38 Yukon, because it’s…well…just another $1200 per square foot sale of a small condo in a hot neighborhood. Instead, have a look at the #2 spot, which goes to 35 Rolph in Crocker Amazon:

A 1350 square foot, two bed, one bath home in the part of town where priced out buyers have been going for years. Why I like this house? Because it has not been chopped up, has a ton of original detailing, has amazing expansion and upgrade potential, and frankly was snagged for a great price. The fact that is was a major overbid (41.76% over to be exact) does not mean the buyer overpaid, it means the agent underpriced (as is usually the case). Regardless, there was certainly competition to get it, so Kudos to the buyers. You got a great house!

Which one of you neighbors will be next to cash in..?

As for the rest, here you go:

The Top 10 Overbids In San Francisco:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
38 Yukon Street 2/1.00/ 19 $949,000 $1,350,000 42.26%
35 Rolph Street 2/1.00/N/A 15 $649,000 $920,000 41.76%
1472 18th Avenue 2/2.50/ 42 $899,000 $1,225,000 36.26%
2055 35th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 11 $895,000 $1,200,000 34.08%
1751 45th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 26 $899,000 $1,200,000 33.48%
1470 18th Avenue 2/2.50/ 42 $959,000 $1,275,000 32.95%
48 Sanchez Street 3/1.50/ 14 $1,295,000 $1,651,000 27.49%
33 Vandewater Street 1/1.00/104 12 $599,000 $760,000 26.88%
242 San Jose Avenue 4/2.50/N/A 10 $2,995,000 $3,800,000 26.88%
509 Central Avenue 2/1.00/ 8 $975,000 $1,225,000 25.64%

Have a great weekend! Check back next week for more, Monday for the Underbids, and stop by my mid century single family home in Golden Gate Heights at 1972 11th Ave, which will be open Sunday from 1-4pm. Check out 1177 California #304, which is still available too.

Curious about the most recent sales in San Francisco citywide? Curiosity satisfied.