The List That Just Won’t Quit | San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids Of The Week

To say the Richmond District single family home market is hot right now is a wee little understatement. It’s white hot.

Overbid of $712,000 aside, it’s another $1100 per square foot sale in an area of town previously undiscovered and overlooked. I guess the secret is out

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
571 20th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 12 $1,388,000 $2,100,000 51.30%
1463 40th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 14 $899,000 $1,350,000 50.17%
844 Detroit Street 3/1.00/N/A 22 $899,000 $1,300,000 44.61%
171 Ledyard Street 2/2.00/N/A 11 $599,000 $850,000 41.90%
340 Benton Avenue 3/2.50/ 15 $829,000 $1,142,500 37.82%
1523 26th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 17 $998,000 $1,375,000 37.78%
3030 Rivera Street 3/2.00/N/A 12 $899,000 $1,235,000 37.37%
4045 Ocean Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 10 $1,195,000 $1,622,000 35.73%
849 44th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 10 $1,049,000 $1,410,000 34.41%
74 Winfield Street 76 2-4 Units 29 $995,000 $1,320,000 32.66%

Special mention to my listing at 849 44th Ave that barely made it to the list even as nuts as our situation there was!

These lists are very “real-time”, and a good indication of pockets of our market. For a broader look at the San Francisco market I continually refer people to my favorite resource in Patrick Carlisle at Paragon Real Estate:
30+ Years of San Francisco Real Estate Cycles
Preliminary Indications of Direction of the San Francisco 2017 Market

Have a great weekend! It’s gonna be a cracker, so get out and enjoy.

Five days later and $361,000 Over, 849 44th Ave Sets New Record Price Per Square Foot in the Outer Richmond [theFrontSteps]

Top 10 Overbids And Some Very Interesting Outer Sunset / Parkside Data

It’s that time…

Top 10 Overbids Of the Week

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
165 Vasquez Avenue 3/1.25/N/A 12 $1,050,000 $1,703,000 62.19%
1846 38th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 12 $898,000 $1,255,000 39.76%
3537 Lawton Street 3/3.00/N/A 11 $1,095,000 $1,525,000 39.27%
1534 17th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 10 $995,000 $1,350,000 35.68%
2039 47th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 0 $895,000 $1,204,000 34.53%
176 Valmar Terrace 2/1.00/N/A 8 $599,000 $802,000 33.89%
153 Wool Street 2/2.00/N/A 1 $1,098,000 $1,450,000 32.06%
257 Richland Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 14 $999,000 $1,315,000 31.63%
1698 Armstrong Avenue 3/1.50/N/A 25 $895,000 $1,173,000 31.06%
229 Stanyan Street 3/2.50/N/A 13 $1,399,000 $1,825,000 30.45%

You might think a lot of emphasis is placed on the overbid and the shock and awe of these, and it is…and it should be. But stop for a minute and look at the bigger picture that is still unfolding. These ridiculous overbids happen by way of multiple offers. What does that mean in lay terms? There is more than one buyer interested in any one home at any one time. Usually, there are about 20-30 people interested, and in situations like this anywhere from 5-15 people actually throw their offer into the hat. And for the most part, these homes are nothing fancy, especially the top dog 165 Vasquez…it’s a “Fabulous Fixer” that sold for $1.7M.

Take it a step further and think about the “Outer” Avenues. The Western shore of San Francisco. The “Outerlands”. The sand dunes. The desolation. The edge of the Continent. The place nobody wanted to be, because it is “always foggy” (When I have listings out this way, people actually come up to me and ask, “Is it ever sunny out here?”…no joke). As it turns out, it’s the most popular place to buy in San Francisco at the moment (close second would be Bernal Heights). Why is that? It’s one of the few areas in San Francisco you can still get a single family home under $1.3M…barely.

Think back to 2014 when the average home in the Outer Avenues could be had for under $900,000 , and look at the four overbids on this top 10 list in the avenues, all trading well over $1.2M. It’s nuts! But it’s reality.

As a reference point, to make sure I wasn’t delusional, I pulled the averages for the Outer Sunset and Outer Parkside 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Have a look…

Type       Units Sold | List Price | Sqft | LPPSF| DOM | Sales Price | SPPSF

Single-Family | (142)  | $759,918 | 1358 | $595 | 34 | $854,982 | $670
Single-Family | (142) | $844,974 | 1365 | $645 | 25 | $1,012,097 | $771
Single-Family | (141) | $918,479 | 1398 | $689 | 29 | $1,080,833 | $808
Single-Family | (28) | $910,195 | 1237 | $778 | 31 | $1,076,107 | $906

It’s all very interesting…
Units Sold – almost identical every year.
List price – Creeped steadily up.
Average size of the home – down.
List Price – Up.
Days On Market – Hovering around 30.
Sales price – Climbing (remember 2017 is not even close to done).
And the last and easy to decipher for even the most data challenged person (like myself) Sales Price Per Square Foot – up nearly $240 per square foot on average.

Moral of the story, it’s hot in the Avenues right now. And the small to mid-size single family home market is sizzling. It might be time for you to sell, so give me a shout.

Anyhow, that’s it. Have a great holiday weekend! Enjoy the sun, surf, snow, greens, trails, whatever it is you love to do, and I’ll be back next week.

Uninhabitable San Francisco Home Asks $499,000 Gets $789,000

It’s official…San Francisco real estate is on acid.

This week’s #1 Overbid is sure to blow your mind. Listed for $499,000 and just closed for $789,000, 167 Maynard is everything you’ve ever dreamed of owning in a home…assuming you can raze it and build that dream home (just keep your eyes closed for the next two years while you go through planning and construction).


Overbid amount aside, what we have here is a totally uninhabitable home in an up and coming neighborhood of San Francisco selling for more than triple the National Average Home Price. Chew on that this Friday morning.

As for the top 10…here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
167 Maynard Street 3/1.00/N/A 14 $499,000 $789,000 58.12%
1368 46th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 12 $799,000 $1,200,000 50.19%
347 Lisbon Street 3/1.00/N/A 8 $599,000 $875,000 46.08%
1415 Oakdale Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 11 $599,000 $875,000 46.08%
1567 29th Avenue 3/1.50/N/A 14 $995,000 $1,420,000 42.71%
1719 17th Avenue 3/1.50/N/A 22 $998,000 $1,400,000 40.28%
2191 24th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 7 $898,000 $1,250,000 39.20%
1452 Waller Street 1/1.00/2 34 $649,000 $901,000 38.83%
117 Los Palmos Drive 3/2.00/N/A 10 $949,000 $1,301,000 37.09%
229 Granville Way 3/3.00/N/A 7 $1,695,000 $2,305,000 35.99%

Happy Friday! Come back next week for more, or better yet, Follow theFrontSteps.

The Goods for all your Real Estate Needs

Presidio Heights Fixer Snags $3,450,000 Over Asking, Closes For $10,350,000

Today’s Maximum Overbid of the Week comes as no surprise, in fact, I’m surprised it didn’t sell for more.


Situated on the wall of the Presidio, 3515 Pacific Avenue is the gem of all gems, something that will hold value for generations, and affords this buyer the opportunity to make it their own: wide lot, excellent bones, premiere location, views, indoor/outdoor flow, and only a $6,900,000 offering price that quickly ballooned to a $10,350,000 sales price (cash, of course) – don’t worry, I’ll do that math for you…$3,450,000 over list, and $1814 per square foot.

It’s a bargain, and when you have $10M cash, who really gives a sh*t. I would have paid double that for this house, because I would never sell it. Congratulations to the buyers, and kudos to the sellers.

As for the runners up…

Top 10 Overbids Of the Week

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
3515 Pacific Avenue 6/6.50/N/A 13 $6,900,000 $10,350,000 50.00%
622 Edna Street 2/1.00/N/A 14 $859,000 $1,200,000 39.70%
2478 30th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 23 $899,000 $1,250,000 39.04%
38 Everglade Drive 4/2.00/N/A 14 $1,088,000 $1,500,000 37.87%
1088 Ashbury Street 3/2.50/N/A 12 $1,795,000 $2,450,000 36.49%
1751 42nd Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 13 $849,000 $1,150,000 35.45%
265 Oak Street N/A/N/A/5 12 $1,495,000 $2,000,000 33.78%
1716 14th Avenue 3/2.50/N/A 13 $995,000 $1,325,000 33.17%
83 Wawona Street 3/2.00/N/A 5 $1,695,000 $2,250,000 32.74%
3952 19th Street 2/1.00/N/A 13 $1,895,000 $2,513,000 32.61%

And if you’re not in the market for a $10M fixer, that’s okay. I have a really awesome house that just hit the market today at 849 44th Ave ($1,049,000), and it’ll be open Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. So come check it out once you land back on Earth after dreaming about what you’d do to 3515 Pacific Avenue if you were the lucky buyer.

Happy Friday!

More Overbids, Underbids, and Recent Sales @ The Goods [theGoods-sf.com]

I’m Seeing Green | Maximum Overbids Of The Week

It’s that lucky green grass…

San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids Week Ending 3/17/17

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2259 44th Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 16 $895,000 $1,250,000 39.66%
28 Harry Street 3/2.00/N/A 12 $995,000 $1,350,000 35.68%
1847 43rd Avenue 3/1.50/N/A 2 $899,000 $1,200,000 33.48%
435 West Portal Avenue 4/4.00/N/A 8 $1,695,000 $2,250,000 32.74%
1231 30th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 6 $995,000 $1,300,000 30.65%
111 Santa Paula Avenue 4/3.50/N/A 13 $1,995,000 $2,600,000 30.33%
51 Fairfield Way 2/1.00/N/A 13 $999,000 $1,248,750 25.00%
321 Bridgeview Drive 3/1.25/N/A 12 $599,000 $748,000 24.87%
521 2nd Avenue 3/2.50/ 12 $1,595,000 $1,975,000 23.82%
68 Rosenkranz Street 3/2.00/N/A 8 $1,650,000 $2,006,000 21.58%

For a look at the top 20 Overbids and Underbids (in 14 day tally), as well as New Listings and Recent Sales, check out The Goods

Otherwise, Happy St. Patrick’s Day (by all accounts an Immigrant), and pinch me when you see me, because I can’t believe I own absolutely zero green items of clothing.

Top 10 Overbids | San Francisco Week Ending 3/10/17

This week’s top 10 list of mind-bending overbids looks like a tour around the world – Cambridge, Greenwich, Jersey, Munich. Alas we’re still in San Francisco, Dorothy.

San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
657 Cambridge Street 3/2.00/N/A 20 $950,000 $1,300,000 36.84%
2643 Greenwich Street 2645 2-4 Units 7 $1,595,000 $2,100,000 31.66%
1494 42nd Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 12 $788,000 $1,036,000 31.47%
431 Jersey 3/1.50/N/A 10 $1,795,000 $2,225,000 23.96%
829 Cole Street 2/2.00/ 9 $1,299,000 $1,610,000 23.94%
563 Munich Street 2/1.00/N/A 13 $799,000 $985,000 23.28%
945 Capp Street 2/1.00/4 13 $898,000 $1,100,000 22.49%
4106 20th Street 3/2.00/N/A 0 $1,750,000 $2,137,500 22.14%
218 Grafton Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 34 $625,000 $762,000 21.92%
26 Caine Avenue 4/3.00/N/A 12 $799,000 $970,000 21.40%

I say “mind-bending” mostly because it is still alarming our market works so incredibly efficiently by generally under-pricing properties to let buyers take it to market value, and it’s worked this way for the better part of a decade. By all accounts 99% of every overbid appraises at value when it comes time to get a loan. So don’t think every buyer is paying more than what a property is worth, just to win. They aren’t. They’re paying market value…in most cases. There are outliers, for sure, but for the most part, just because it’s an overbid, doesn’t mean it is overvalued.

As always, for a list of the top 20 Overbids, Top 20 Underbids, Recent Sales, New Listings, and Stalefish, check out my Market Tracker at www.thegoods-sf.com/theFrontSteps. Important to note, the Goods runs a 14 day tally, my tally here is on a 7 day cycle, so there will be some slight variations.

Thinking about selling your property to cash in and get out on top? I’d be happy to help. Just give me a shout.

Real Estate Porn For The People…

Who came down with a heavy case of the Mondays…and Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays? I did. Right here.


I know you all want the great real estate porn that got you on this site in the first place, but I’ve been busy, so I figured I’d make your life, and my life, easier…here you go: Check out The Goods, it’s all new, super sleek, works great on your mobile device, and has all of the same great data you’ve come to love (minus my snarky comments).

Want Top 20 Overbids…all there, all the time. Start to notice things like 135 Webster, finally dethroned by 572 Funston.

Want Top 20 Underbids…got those too. Marvel at places like (239 Arletta in Visitacion Valley, which sold for 20% BELOW list…wait for it…at $480,000 to clinch top spot on the Underbids. That’s a $600,000 home selling for $480,000 and the address on the post card to mom will read “San Francisco, CA”.

Looking for Hot New Listings. Gotcha covered there too. No need to wait for me to tell you about what just hit the market in your ‘hood. Grab properties like 164 Belvedere (drooling) and immediately share with your friends to plan your dinner parties when they buy it!

The Holy Grail…Recent Sales…got those too. I was the first in San Francisco to provide this valuable data to my clients on a regular basis, so why should I stop. Such an easy way to track what’s going on in your ‘hood without my annoying phone calls, texts, and emails to remind you how much you love me.

My buyers’ favorite…Stalefish…had to tone this down for the masses and call em 30+, but this is my site, and dammit if I don’t like calling them Stalefish better. A Stalefish is a property 30 DOM* or More…and would you believe 149 29th St is BOM*. For the record just cuz it’s Stale, doesn’t mean it stinks!

So there you have it. Now you don’t need me to update you as often. You want the Goods, you get the Goods. Spread the word.

Fellow agents…we are now offering my service of The Goods to you…your branding, your look, your site…update your people with the same great data. Contact us at info@thegoods-sf.com or nate@thegoods-sf.com to get your pages set up and start sharing this wonderful real estate market information with your people.

*BOM = Back On Market
*DOM = Days On Market
*Duh!

Outer Parkside Gem Claims Top Spot On Weekly Overbids

Usually, I’m posting the top 10 Overbids on Fridays, and Underbids on Mondays, but sometimes the planets get out of orbit, tides rise too high, and I have my own listings and buyers to tend to. But when I come up for air, I always like to enlighten you all with a little bit of jaw-dropping real estate porn to take you through the week, and today is no exception. Have a look at 2063 41st Ave, in San Francisco’s Outer Parkside district:


It came blazing on the market just after Labor Day at a seemingly bargain price of $599,000 (for comparison, here are ALL recent sales under $600,000 in SF), one bidding frenzy later, and this buyer just landed an epic fixer for $820,000…time to bust out the Coleman camping gear (including stove), and enjoy your Ocean View.

As for the rest…here you go, the Top 10 Overbids closed in the past 7 days in San Francisco (take note…they’re getting more mellow as our market cools):

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2063 41st Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 14 $599,000 $820,000 36.89%
771 41st Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,150,000 $1,420,000 23.48%
21 Seal Rock Drive 3/2.00/N/A 11 $1,295,000 $1,575,000 21.62%
1830 Mason Street 2/2.50/ 10 $1,095,000 $1,305,000 19.18%
354 Maynard Street 2/1.00/N/A 43 $699,000 $830,000 18.74%
3011 20th Street 2/2.00/2 13 $1,095,000 $1,300,000 18.72%
3943 21st Street 3/2.50/N/A 12 $1,895,000 $2,200,000 16.09%
14 White Street 2/1.00/N/A 17 $1,388,800 $1,608,889 15.85%
342 Faxon Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 28 $838,000 $968,000 15.51%
1365 16th Avenue 2/1.00/ 17 $1,095,000 $1,250,000 14.16%

¡Que Rico! | $681,000 Over Asking For A Tear Down | ¿Qué?

The Friday before Labor Day weekend…Many call it the end of Summer, but here in San Francisco it’s safe to say it’s the beginning. Our temperatures finally heat up from the Bay Shore to the Pacific Ocean. The sun is lower on the horizon, shadows are longer, Fall fashion ads are everywhere, and local restaurants are transitioning to seasonal delicacies like squash and brussel sprouts (Children everywhere collectively laughing at that comment!), and this weekend is the final exodus of Summer travelers, many of whom are headed to Burning Man.

37 Rico Way…a tear down (if you’re so lucky to be able to tear it down) in the Marina district, and definitely built on Landfill, listed for $1,999,000, and sold in the blink of an eye for $2,680,000…in case the hallucinogens of Burning Man are already kicking in and that math is perplexing you, that’s $681,000 over list…and our market is cooling.

As for the rest of the top 10…here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
37 Rico Way 3/1.00/N/A 15 $1,999,000 $2,680,000 34.07%
753 44th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 15 $898,000 $1,185,000 31.96%
343 29th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,495,000 $1,950,000 30.43%
83 Winfield Street 2/1.00/N/A 8 $1,050,000 $1,350,000 28.57%
472 Naples Street 2/1.00/N/A 35 $575,000 $735,000 27.83%
361 Church Street 2/1.00/ 43 $989,000 $1,260,000 27.40%
534 Shotwell Street 2/1.50/4 12 $949,000 $1,200,000 26.45%
1178 Dolores Street 2/2.00/ 12 $1,395,000 $1,760,000 26.16%
421 Los Palmos Drive 3/2.00/N/A 22 $1,058,000 $1,325,000 25.24%
486 45th Avenue 6/5.50/N/A 29 $1,998,000 $2,500,000 25.13%

It’s a transitional weekend for real estate, and next week will begin the flood of inventory to our market for the (hopefully) robust Fall selling season. We’re just as anxious to see how it all pans out as you, so make sure you follow this blog, and we’ll keep you in the loop.

Bending your real estate mind one blog post at a time, it’s what I do.

Have a great weekend!

Marina District Liquefaction Zones [theFrontSteps]

Hey Overbids!

The overbids are still there, it’s myself who has been a bit absent. Hey! It’s Summer, so why not.

Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
792 Capp Street 3/1.00/N/A 13 $995,000 $1,450,000 45.73%
154 Bonview Street 1/1.00/N/A 9 $799,000 $1,150,000 43.93%
113 Newman Street 2/1.00/N/A 9 $889,000 $1,250,000 40.61%
2330 Sloat Boulevard 5/3.00/N/A 23 $995,000 $1,380,000 38.69%
1375 32nd Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 32 $950,000 $1,280,000 34.74%
1728 Ortega Street 3/2.00/N/A 16 $1,095,000 $1,458,000 33.15%
850 Treat Avenue 2/1.00/ 10 $999,000 $1,300,000 30.13%
23 Roscoe Street 1/1.00/N/A 27 $695,000 $890,000 28.06%
4228 24th Street 2/2.00/ 15 $1,299,000 $1,650,000 27.02%
1856 28th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 25 $975,000 $1,238,000 26.97%

For more Overbids, Underbids, Stalefish, Recent Sales, and New Listings, check out The Goods.

Have a great weekend. Come visit me at 1011 23rd, my super sweet loft, which just came BOM for $699,000.