From $899,000 To $1,400,000 | Holy (160) Santa Marina!

Would you look at that…the #1 Overbid of the week is not a fixer! It’s a been a while for that, but we’re pleased to report the market is strong…very strong for any reasonably good property in any reasonably good neighborhood of San Francisco, which is pretty much everywhere now.

This property (160 Santa Marina) was ridiculously under-priced at $899,000, but still.

It sold half a million dollars over the seller’s asking price and just clinched the top spot on this week’s Top 10 Overbid list by selling for a stunning $1,400,000.

As for the rest, here you go.


Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Welcome To The Mission | Kitchen & Bath Not Included

From the Outer Richmond last week, to the heart of the Sunset this week, the Western edge of San Francisco continues to take top honors on the Overbid list.

Perhaps a little less baffling than last week’s, and also a case of clearly underpricing a property, this little gem at 2724 Ortega just fetched nearly 40% more than asking ($849,000 to $1,135,000). To be perfectly honest, it sold exactly at a reasonable price, so there is not much of a story on this one, buuuttt…

Have a look at 1315 Minna, which took second fiddle, in the oh-so hip and happening Inner Mission District..definitely a kitchen suitable for Easter Brunch, or Thanksgiving Dinner.

From $999,000 to $1,328,000…. our friends around the world are collectively shaking their heads in disbelief. As for us, it’s all too familiar.

Top 10 Maximum Overbids Of the Week | San Francisco

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2724 Ortega Street 3/2.00/N/A 14 $849,000 $1,135,000 33.69%
1315 Minna Street 2/1.00/N/A 21 $999,000 $1,328,000 32.93%
635 38th Avenue 3/3.00/N/A 13 $1,495,000 $1,915,000 28.09%
6 Berkeley Way 4/3.50/N/A 15 $1,298,000 $1,650,000 27.12%
3392 16th Street 2/1.25/ 12 $995,000 $1,245,000 25.13%
73 Naples Street 3/2.00/N/A 12 $749,000 $927,000 23.77%
1045 Church Street 3/1.00/N/A 19 $1,799,000 $2,225,000 23.68%
1039 Treat Avenue 2/1.00/ 4 $1,099,000 $1,350,000 22.84%
2679 43rd Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 9 $749,000 $920,000 22.83%
1056 Cole Street 3/1.00/ 13 $1,095,000 $1,310,000 19.63%

For information about any of the sales you see above, about San Francisco, or our market, have a look around the site..it’s loaded with great information. Better yet, give us a shout and we’ll get you sorted.

Have a great weekend!


March Madness Starts Early In San Francisco | Overbids That Will Make You Freak

On this rainy March Friday as you sit and wonder about the world outside, what better than some jaw-dropping Overbids to rattle your mental cage.
Top of the list this week is 4027 Clement Street, a very awesome little house in the Outer Richmond with a certain “je ne sais quoi” that took it next level overbidding madness (when someone loves it, they love it), and as a result it sold for 63% over asking at $1,625,000 from a $998,000 list price…that’s $627,000 above for all of you math challenged individuals or non-residents of San Francisco that find that kind of math simply absurd (it is, really). Rumor has it 17 offers came in (that leaves 16 buyers still looking for something like this if you have something to sell), but it was that one person that just had to have it, and that’s often the case.

Speaking of buyers that “had to have it”, I thought the recent listing I just closed in Cole Valley at 179 Carl that sold for $505,000 over would at least make the top 10…alas, it didn’t even make the top 20. Chew on that for a little while…

Top 10 Overbids of the Week, San Francisco:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
4027 Clement Street 3/2.00/N/A 8 $998,000 $1,625,000 62.83%
2055 20th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 16 $598,888 $952,000 58.96%
3373 22nd Street 4/3.50/N/A 8 $2,450,000 $3,475,000 41.84%
1115 Rivera Street 4/2.00/N/A 7 $995,000 $1,380,000 38.69%
2234 38th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 35 $849,000 $1,150,000 35.45%
479 Texas Street 2/2.00/1 9 $1,049,000 $1,385,000 32.03%
832 Page Street 2/1.00/ 12 $1,050,000 $1,377,500 31.19%
115 Dalewood Way 3/2.00/N/A 7 $1,195,000 $1,550,000 29.71%
2075 Sutter Street 2/2.00/215 14 $995,000 $1,275,000 28.14%
271 27th Street 2/1.00/ 7 $1,050,000 $1,300,000 23.81%

There you have it, March Madness and overbids that will make you freak. The market is cooling, for sure ;-)

Have a great weekend, we’re here to help you buy or sell when the time is right.

[Editor’s Note: Overbids are calculated on a percentage basis, not dollars over.]


San Francisco Single Family Real Estate Appreciation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to houses, the next post is specific to condominiums appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new home construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.



The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas, especially in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If this situation applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.






As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market don’t hesitate to ask.

If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.

Dropping In

Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Embrace The Chaos

This home on 43rd Ave just sold $331,000 over asking, and takes this week’s top spot on the top 10 San Francisco Overbids. But let’s look deeper into what’s going on here.

You might be wondering why I chose the amazing picture of pro surfer Damien Hobgood getting burned by some random guy as this week’s featured image to go with the continually insane overbids San Francisco dishes out. Well…it’s significant in many respects (in my mind anyway, so hear me out).

1. Not only does Ocean Beach occasionally get world class surf (word is out, sorry), but it brings the pain, as does our market to many, many, many buyers continually burned by that other buyer that dropped in on them and “stole” their home. And just like waves, there will always be another home come your way, so bite your lip, regroup, focus, don’t get upset, and get the next one.

2. The Avenues are the hottest part of town right now to be selling a Single Family Home, as it is the last frontier where such a home is still attainable under $1.1M (check the stats). You can find these homes in the Outer Sunset, Outer Parkside, and if you’re lucky, the Outer Richmond districts. Miraloma Park is a hidden gem of bargain homes too, but no beach. For you out of towners, Ocean Beach is where San Francisco officially ends, and Pacific Ocean begins (the “Bay” is not). This is our “beach” neighborhood, which at some point will go back to normal programming of fog for months on end, howling onshore winds, and no hipsters cruising on their penny boards to check the surf, because it will be too damn cold and the bikinis will be all covered up.

3.Who still prices a home like this, in a location like that, at $699,000? Seriously John. Seriously.

4. This sale is $331,000 over the asking price, but really, it was underpriced by at least $100,000, so let’s hope all the marketing that goes out around it doesn’t say “I got my clients $331,000 more than they expected!” We all know it was expected to go over, and I guarantee if they only got one offer at $699,000 they never would have sold it. At 1200 square feet, or $807/psft, some might even argue it is a steal.

5. The photo caption on the Surfing Magazine article sums it up best with what people THINK is happening in San Francisco real estate, “A quick reminder that the surfer closest to the peak of the wave, or in the barrel, has the right of way. Damien Hobgood and some tech nerd“. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a great caption and it’s definitely evident in the water, but it’s not just the techies with all the cash. I’ve been telling my clients and readers this for years. There is an insane amount of money from all walks of life in this city and greater Bay Area. It’s easy to point the finger at one group and make assumptions, but I guarantee you, your assumptions about the techies and our real estate market are wrong.

And before you go blaming the techies for your lack of wave domination, or missing out on your dream home, reconsider that GoPro strapped to your board, the Uber you just took to work, that baby picture you just HAD to share on Instagram, and all the other tech channels you can’t live without whether you’ve been living here 40 years, or 4. The city is a changing. Embrace the Chaos.

[Song: Pa Lante by Ozomatli; Album: Embrace the Chaos…turn it up!]

With all of that said, the Top 10:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2471 43rd Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 19 $699,000 $1,030,000 47.35%
1650 Florida Street 3/1.00/ 42 $695,000 $970,000 39.57%
1099 23rd Street 1/1.50/1 20 $599,000 $801,000 33.72%
136 Seville Street 2/1.00/N/A 33 $699,000 $890,000 27.32%
2769 Union Street 3/2.00/ 13 $2,499,000 $3,130,000 25.25%
4500 California Street 2/2.00/ 38 $980,000 $1,210,000 23.47%
164 Parker Avenue 2/1.00/B 31 $995,000 $1,210,000 21.61%
681 Panorama Drive 3/2.00/N/A 28 $999,000 $1,204,000 20.52%
204 Anderson Street 2/2.00/N/A 13 $1,189,000 $1,425,500 19.89%
2270 9th Avenue 4/3.50/N/A 8 $1,795,000 $2,150,000 19.78%

Have a great weekend! Looking to buy or sell Bay Area Real Estate? Look no further, and give me a shout.

Image Source for Surfers [Surfing Magazine]


San Francisco Real Estate Market Mid-Year Report

Home Price Appreciation Rates; Prices, Cost & Affordability;
Dollar per Square Foot; Interest Rates; Sales Price to List Price Ratio

Bay Area Appreciation Rates since 2011
Combined House & Condo Median Sales Prices


Besides the general economic recovery, there are other factors in different counties affecting home price increases over the past 4 years: 1) the huge decline in distressed property sales in those counties severely affected during the downturn (such as Solano, Contra Costa & Alameda), 2) the dramatic surge in luxury home sales (such as in SF, San Mateo & Marin), 3) increasing luxury condo construction (SF), and 4) the effect of the high-tech boom in employment and wealth, which radiates out from San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

The higher priced counties, led by San Francisco and San Mateo, saw the largest dollar increases in median prices since 2011 – $400,000 to $500,000 – but counties rebounding from the distressed property crisis often experienced the biggest percentage jumps. The city of Oakland, benefiting from both the decline in distressed sales and being the closest, most affordable option to high San Francisco housing prices saw by far the largest percentage increase: 133%.


San Francisco Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood

Note that median prices within the city are also affected by a variety of factors beyond simple increases in fair market value.

SF House Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages



We’re almost positive that we recommended that everyone buy at least one median-priced Pacific Heights mansion in 2011 at the bargain-basement price of $3,225,000. If you had followed this (imaginary) advice, your home would have appreciated by $2.77 million. However, on a pure return on investment basis, you would have done better to snap up a few median-priced houses in the Mission, which appreciated by an incredible 143%. It should be noted that both of these neighborhoods have comparatively few house sales as compared to, say, the Sunset or Bernal Heights. Low supply is often one factor in high appreciation rates.

SF Condo Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages



For condos, Russian Hill led the way in dollar median price appreciation and Yerba Buena was tops in percentage price increase since the bottom of the market in 2011.

Over the past 4 years, houses have appreciated a bit more than condos in the city, 81% to 73%, and that is probably due to the fact that houses are becoming the scarcer commodity: While thousands of new condos are now being built each year, new house construction can usually be counted on 2 or 3 hands.

For prevailing SF median house and condo prices, our interactive map of neighborhood values can be found here:SF Neighborhood Home-Price Map


Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
by San Francisco Neighborhood



Increasing average dollar per square foot values have been breaking records in neighborhoods throughout San Francisco for the last 2 years. Some of the surge in condo values is explained by the many recently built luxury condo projects – which have been selling at premium dollar per square foot prices – that have been sprouting up around the city.


San Francisco Luxury Home Sales


Sales of higher-end houses and condos have been soaring in the city and hit by far their highest number ever in the second quarter. Big jumps in expensive home sales are an important factor behind increases in the overall median sales price.


Appreciation, Cost & Affordability

Short-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 2012)


Long-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 1993)


Inflation & Interested Rate-Adjusted Housing Cost (since 1993)


The short-term and long-term appreciation charts above are self-explanatory. The Home Cost Trends chart reflects a very approximate calculation of monthly home payment costs (principal, interest, property tax and insurance) adjusted for inflation – i.e. in 1993 dollars – using annual median house sales prices, average annual 30-year interest rates, and assuming a 20% downpayment. The average annual compounding CPI inflation rate fluctuated, but averaged approximately 2.4% over the period, and average annual mortgage rates fluctuated from 8.4% to 3.7% (see chart further below), which had a huge impact on financing costs.

Adjusting for inflation and interest rate changes means that though the median sales price is now far above that of 2007, the monthly housing cost is still a little bit below then. This isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison because it doesn’t take into account that the amount of the 20% downpayment increased significantly over the time period. Still, since ongoing cost is typically an important factor for homebuyers (at least those getting financing), this affords another angle on our market.


Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Over the last 4 years, the big decline in interest rates has largely subsidized the increase in home prices.


Price Reductions, Sales Prices to List Prices,
and Days on Market


In the 2nd quarter, the vast majority of SF home sales sold without prior price reductions; these sold very quickly, at an astounding average of 14.5% over the original list price – clear indications of a white-hot market. For the past 4 years, spring has been by far the most frenzied selling season of the year, and the market usually cools in summer.

There you have it.

Recent Transactions [Alexander Clark]


$1.6 to $2.2 – $1.2 to $1.6 – $1.6 to $2.3…San Francisco Overbids Continue With No End In Sight

Although I’ve been out and about and trying to enjoy summer, clearly the Overbid factory didn’t get the memo. Check out the most recent craziness, including one architect/owner designed house on 15th Ave that sold almost 40% over asking! To all of those that think things slow down in Summer…think again.

Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
414 Missouri St 4/3.00/N/A 6 $950,000 $1,410,000 48.42%
671 Alvarado St 2/1.00/ 12 $899,000 $1,305,000 45.16%
1426 6th Ave 3/3.00/N/A 13 $1,595,000 $2,300,000 44.20%
609 Precita Ave 2/2.00/N/A 42 $825,000 $1,175,000 42.42%
531 Sanchez St 2/1.00/N/A 8 $995,000 $1,400,000 40.70%
2570 Folsom St 4/3.00/N/A 14 $1,595,000 $2,210,000 38.56%
45 Richland Ave 3/1.50/N/A 10 $650,000 $900,500 38.54%
2628 15th Ave 3/1.50/N/A 12 $849,000 $1,175,000 38.40%
656 Arguello Blvd 2/2.00/3 21 $799,000 $1,104,713 38.26%
80 Jersey St 3/2.00/ 14 $1,195,000 $1,650,000 38.08%

Want the top 20, sign up for sfnewsletter @ sfnewsletter.com.

[Update: Business Insider Just Shared 13 Properties all Selling For $1M or more over…]

Have a great weekend!

Parkside Center Patio Home Hits The Market, Don’t Delay!

If you’ve been looking for a home in the Parkside neighborhood of San Francisco, I have just the one for you, 2186 33rd Ave @ Rivera ($795,000).

This home has been elegantly remodeled and meticulously maintained throughout. There is a large Living Room and Formal Dining Room, which opens into a wonderful center patio with skylights that seal off completely enabling you to enjoy the tranquility even on a rainy day. The living room has a corner fireplace and oak floors. The Beautiful kitchen has been wonderfully remodeled with Carrara Marble counters, cherry floor, stainless appliances and skylight. There are two spacious bedrooms and a full bath upstairs and large Master Suite with Full Bath downstairs. Whether you use the downstairs room as a master suite or office or media room, you can easily step outside into the lovely garden, or simply open the doors and let fresh air in. It is truly a wonderful home in an excellent location, that could be yours.

The home will be open for viewing every Sunday from 2-4pm until it is sold, and is available for private showings by appointment.

What are you waiting for! It’s not everyday a center patio home like this hits the market.

2186 33rd Ave: 3bed, 2 bath, 1 parking, $795,000 [MLS]

An apples to apples in Sunnyside? It looks that way.

519 Foerster sold for over asking and 75K more than it last sold for in 2005.

(Here’s the link, 519 Foerster not [editor is back in town] cleaned up):

It looks like there was a paint job, and maybe a new floor in the kitchen, maybe not. The 2005 listing advertises a “new home.”

This would seem to go along with the theory I and a number of others subscribe to. The “pockets” theory that there are neighborhoods throughout the city that continue to see appreciation. One of the most surprising and most glaring is the Inner Richmond more parkside properties. But I think Sunnyside/Miraloma Park is another. This one fetched 616 a foot.

— Kenneth (KJ) Kohlmyer a k a der fluj

Reader Reports: Parkside home for $1.4M? (2560 22nd Ave)

From our reader:

Is any house in the central sunset worth 1.4 million? The average price in the central sunset 800k -900k.

Please take a look at 2960 22nd Ave, San Francisco which just came on the market.

2560 22nd Ave (before)

…and the kitchen:

Kitchen before

We must first say that this home is technically located in the Parkside, near Stern Grove and that area is quite nice. Having not actually been in the home, we can’t speak to the price, but if the pictures are any indication….oh wait, those are the before shots from the last sale in December 2007 at $900,000.

Read on for the after….