kw05

San Francisco Market Report

Britain’s June vote to exit the EU has already had an impact on the market in the US, including here in San Francisco. Mortgage rates have dropped almost a quarter of a percent, making the monthly payments on our pricey housing slightly more affordable. The result is that it will support continuing increases in sales prices, as decreases in interest rates always do. For example, a $1,000,000 loan at 3.75% costs $4,631/month, but at 3.5% you can borrow $1,032,000 for the same monthly payment. And monthly payments are what buyers focus on.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published its upbeat Economic Forecast in June which indicated continued strong job and economic growth, continued low business and mortgage interest rates (this was published prior to the vote in Britain), coupled with historically low unemployment and inflation below the Fed’s target of 2%. The conclusion is that they see Gross Domestic Product growth around 2% for the year, at a “pace consistent with moderate ongoing expansion, which we expect to continue over the next few years.”

Of interest was their findings about the cause of the lower labor force participation rates that have been occurring since 2001 that have been noted by many previous reports. It turns out that because of the considerable shift in the wage gains during this time period to the higher income households, that these households have fewer multiple earners. On the opposite end of the spectrum, lower wage earners continue to need multiple earners to make ends meet.

The Fed report hypothesizes that this is a shift that the upper-income households have made in the work-life balance and that the workforce participation in this group may remain low. It is also mimicked by the young workers in upper-income households, where labor force participation is also significantly lower than in the general population.

kw01

San Francisco Single Family Home median prices have been hovering between $1,352,000 and $1,380,000 for the past four months since peaking at $1,400,000 in February 2016. That was the second time median prices had hit that number, first back in May of 2015. With the drop in interest rates, we could break through that median price soon because that drop from 3.75% to 3.5% finances another $45,000 in the loan amount for the same monthly payment.

The Condo/Loft Median Sales Price hit an all time high of $1,180,000 in June 2016, up 4.9% from June 2015.

kw02

kw03

Resale Condos-Lofts jumped 59% in both Days on Market and Months Supply of Inventory compared to June 2015, but both are still in strong sellers market territory.

Single Family Homes are up slightly in Days on Market from 16 to 20 both for May to June, 2016 and from June 2015 to June 2016. Months Supply of Inventory dropped from 2.3 in May to 1.9 in June 2016 and was also down from June 2015’s 2 months. Both market indicators continue to show a strong sellers market.

kw04

kw05

Single Family Homes New Listings dropped by 55 from May to June 2016. It was also off 61 compared to June 2015. Of additional continuing importance is that the year-to-date number of new listings is down 60 from year-to-date 2015, a 4.1% decline. This helps explain why Months Supply of Inventory is lower than last year.

Resale Condos/Lofts had the reverse trend, with 1 more new listing on the market in June than May, 2016, and 27 more new listings in June 2016 than June 2015. And, significantly, year-to-date new listings are up 167 over year-to-date 2015, which represents a 10.3% increase in inventory. This helps explain why Months Supply of Inventory and Days on Market has risen sharply for Resale Condo/Lofts.

No Mass Exit from San Francisco on the Horizon

At last month’s SFARMLS Building Boom forum, the Bay Area Council presented its latest poll of Bay Area residents, and said that the results show that a third of Bay Area residents “are likely to bolt the region in the next few years”. In truth, that is a big overstatement of the poll results.

What the poll actually asked for was a response to: “I am likely to move out of the Bay Area in the next few years.” What people answered was: 13% said they strongly agree with that statement and 21% said they somewhat agree.

That is certainly not a third of the residents saying they are likely to “bolt” in the next few years. Exactly where would they go? Jobs are here, families are here, the great weather is here. There’s a reason our population is growing – this is a fabulous place to work and live, in spite of high prices and congestion.

beach cottage

The Itsy Bitsy Teenie Weenie Million Dollar Beach Bungalow

It’s official…in San Francisco a million bucks barely buys you an (almost on the beach) beach bungalow…actually you need $1,050,000…and depending on what size waves you’re thinking of surfing at the most popular surf spot north of San Diego, you’ll want to consider ultra custom space-saving racks.

In case you’re wondering, it was listed at $699,000. It is close enough to catch the blowing Springtime Sand, so I guess you can call it a “beach bungalow”.

Surf is not up this weekend in San Francisco (Surprise!), but surely you know a friend with a boat. Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Top 20 Overbids, Underbids, and so much more, right here on The Goods.

3434 Rivera, Street, San Francisco [Property Detail Page]

160santama

From $899,000 To $1,400,000 | Holy (160) Santa Marina!

Would you look at that…the #1 Overbid of the week is not a fixer! It’s a been a while for that, but we’re pleased to report the market is strong…very strong for any reasonably good property in any reasonably good neighborhood of San Francisco, which is pretty much everywhere now.

This property (160 Santa Marina) was ridiculously under-priced at $899,000, but still.


It sold half a million dollars over the seller’s asking price and just clinched the top spot on this week’s Top 10 Overbid list by selling for a stunning $1,400,000.

As for the rest, here you go.

179 Carl Designer Bathroom Featured in California Home & Design

SOLD | 179 Carl | Cole Valley Victorian | $3,200,000

I’m pleased to report the sale of this amazing property, which we were able to get featured not only on SFGate (Cole Valley Queen Anne with fabulous wallpaper for $2.695), but also Curbed (Queen Anne Done Up in Designer Style Looks for $2.695), and possibly even in San Francisco Cottages & Gardens just closed today for a whopping $505,000 over list price at $3,200,000. Considering we were targeting a $2.9-$3M sale, I’d consider this knocked out of the park.

Congratulations to my wonderful clients on an extraordinary Cole Valley sale, as well as to the buyers who are sure to love this amazing home in an epic location.

Property Details:

UpperTerrace

Exquisite Modern View Home in Ashbury Heights – Not On MLS

This is one for the ages. Situated on the tippy-top of Ashbury Heights on Upper Terrace, this home is amazing (especially the 1 bed apartment on the top floor that will make any view aficionado envious), it’s high end modern luxury to the 9’s, the views are tremendous (Fog be damned), and you should buy it…off market.

IMG_5614

Priced at $3,800,000, and available for immediate purchase. There are no interior pictures that do it justice, so let’s get you in before it goes to MLS, and you lose out.

Property Details:

This beautiful home has been meticulously remodeled with discriminating attention to detail. The home features an open floor plan and dramatic floor to ceiling windows on each level to enjoy the sweeping views from the Golden Gate Bridge to Mt. Tam.

4 bed plus office (all with views) / 4.5 bath including a fabulous, separate 1 bedroom guest apartment
Custom stucco façade with metal awning
Custom glass and steel front door
Gas Fireplace in living room
Bonelli and Fleetwood windows with automatic shades/window coverings
Folger & Burt Architectural Hardware (door handles and pulls)
Heath Ceramic Tile
Boffi sinks and fixtures
Hickory pecan flooring
Lutron lighting
Custom built-ins
Nest thermostats
Sonos audio system throughout
Terraced and landscaped yard
1 car garage, 1 car parking pad
Approximately 2747 (per architect)

Contact Alexander Clark, KW Luxury Homes International for private showing.
415-254-5351

 

listed by Carrie Goodman, Lisa Miller Sotheby’s

Maximum Overbid of the Week | Bernal Heights Fixer Wins Again

It’s Friday! Yeah! (If you’re not a Realtor who works every weekend.) That means overbids, and look at that, another fixer takes the cake. This time it’s 554 Anderson in Bernal Heights, a 2 bed, 1 bath home listed for $549,000 and sold for $920,000. As for the rest of the top 10, I think this is the first time we’ve seen the list not contain one single property over $2,000,000.

Top 10 San Francisco Real Estate Overbids:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
554 Anderson Street 2/1.00/N/A 10 $549,000 $920,000 67.58%
1397 12th Avenue 2/1.00/ 38 $525,000 $750,000 42.86%
2751 23rd Street 2753 2-4 Units 14 $1,200,000 $1,700,000 41.67%
2077 Jackson Street 2/2.00/301 21 $995,000 $1,220,000 22.61%
933 Stanyan Street 3/2.00/ 9 $1,399,000 $1,700,000 21.52%
264 Grand View Avenue 1/1.00/N/A 37 $998,000 $1,192,999 19.54%
191 Cleo Rand 2/1.50/ 15 $528,000 $630,000 19.32%
566 South Van Ness Avenue 2/2.00/9 76 $795,000 $945,000 18.87%
518 Oak Street 2/1.00/N/A 13 $1,249,000 $1,475,000 18.09%
1535 Oak Street 1/1.00/2 41 $699,000 $815,000 16.60%
marina2

Last Underbid of the year: Marina Home Wins

It’s the last Monday of 2015, everyone is out celebrating and the market is slow and quiet, but there are still properties closing every day, and some going significantly under asking.

The top 3 homes of the top 10 Underbid that closed in the last 2 weeks were sold more than 10% under asking (does that make any sense?) And the winner of our last underbid of the year goes to this wonderful 3 bedroom Marina District single-family home 59 Rico Way. Listed for $2,900,000 and sold for 2,550,000, 12% under asking.
marina1

marina2

marina3

And here’s the rest. Happy holidays everyone!

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
59 Rico Way 3/1.5/3 $2,900,000 $2,550,000 -12.07 %
233 Franconia Street 3/3.5/3 $1,795,000 $1,590,000 -11.42 %
1945 Washington Street #411 1/1/1 $739,000 $665,000 -10.01 %
2953 Broderick Street 2/2.5/2 $3,295,000 $3,000,000 -8.95 %
1200 California 1/1/1 $2,188,000 $2,000,000 -8.59 %
338 Spear Street 2/2/1 $2,998,000 $2,750,000 -8.27 %
1177 California Street 1/1/1 $965,000 $900,000 -6.74 %
1598 McAllister Street 5+ Units $3,000,000 $2,800,000 -6.67 %
646 Los Palmos Drive 5/3/3 $1,450,000 $1,360,000 -6.21 %
1 Hawthorne Street #22E 2/2/1 $1,650,000 $1,550,000 -6.06 %