District 5

May 2016 Central San Francisco Market Conditions

District 5

District 5’s (See SF Districts Map Here) April numbers continue their strong upwards trend with their highest ever median sales price of $2,287,500. Year-over-year, the median price is up 8.9%.


Resale Condo/Loft Median Prices

Resale condo-loft median prices have resumed the downward trend that started last September with a brief uptick in January and February. hey dropped 2.3% from March to April, landing at $1,245,000, which is the lowest median sales price since April 2015. They are down 0.4% year-to-date and 9.6% since their peak at $1,377,000 September 2015.



While Single Family Homes Days on Market inched up to 17 in April, they are still at historically low numbers.

Days on Market for Resale Condo/Lofts dropped from 19 to 16.


Single Family Homes Months Supply of Inventory dropped slightly to 2.4 from March’s 2.5 and up from April, 2015’s 1.7.



This April there were the same number of single family home listings as in April, 2015. Over all, there have been 136 new listings in District 5 this year, one fewer than last year.

There have been 43 fewer condo/loft listings brought on the market year-to-date in 2016 than 2015. This is a 26% drop. And this is the first time in four years that the number of new condo/loft listings was lower in April than March.


San Francisco Real Estate Data, Focus On The Volume On Your Block, Not The Median In Your City

“After hitting a two year low in January, the median price for single-family re-sale homes rose 18.6% in March from February. Year-over-year, the median price was off for the seventh month in a row, falling 3.1%.

After falling to their lowest level since January 2009 in February, home sales bounced back last month, which is normal for this time of year, and rose 75% from February. The 203 home sales last month were 7.7% lower than last March.”

Single Family Stats:

Condominium Stats:

One can argue the merits of medians, averages, days on market and generally just about anything in this data, and one can certainly spin it however they like. Read any number of Realtor blogs/sites and the market is gravy. Read any number of market bashing blogs and it’s all still doom and gloom. Because of this market spin that makes my head spin, I like to focus on one thing…sales volume…more specifically sales volume by district, even nano-district.

We’re coming off of a historical market thrashing. Naturally, prices are going all over the map. So what I really want to know is, if there is sales activity where my client either needs to buy or sell property. If property is moving, that is a good thing. If they’re getting stale, that is bad.

For San Francisco single family homes, we can see year over year (YoY) sales volume is down 7.7%, but up 75% compared to the month prior. Pick District 7 North (roughly Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow) and you’ll see that not only is volume up YoY (8.3%), but also up 225% on the month, whereas District 1 (roughly Richmond, Sea Cliff, Lake, Lone Mountain) is down 25% YoY, but up 50% on the month. (The fact home values in the Richmond are grouped with Sea Cliff is an entirely different nano breakdown that could further skew the numbers…ever seen a $15,000,000 home sell in the Richmond? Anyway….) In any given neighborhood, it is good that volume is up on the month (but also expected given the season), but bad that it is down on the year, because last year was a brutal year, so how could it go anywhere but up? That makes me cautiously optimistic.

For Condos we see YoY sales volume is down 7.2%, but up 28.8% on the month. That is a much more modest gain as compared to single families, and another indication that single family homes are still, and likely always will be, in more demand in San Francisco (because there are so few of them.) But look at District 5 Central (Noe Valley, Haight, Cole Valley, Glen Park…all together? Seriously?) volume is up 2.6% from last year, and 81.8% from the month prior.

The verdict? The San Francisco real estate market is both showing signs of strength, but also still many signs of weakness. You need to really take a close look at the data being presented in any articles you read (as opposed to just reading the headline and story), and you really need to figure out what the market is doing in your neighborhood, and specifically, on your block. Sales volume is (to me) most important, because it is your indication of whether properties are selling, or not. Average and median prices got pummeled, so don’t lose sleep over them. If you have to move and sell now, focus on pricing, get the highest and best price you can, and don’t stress over whether the seller 20 blocks away got more, because it could just be a result of the weather.

I’ve always said “San Francisco” data is way too generic for all of our little nano-markets, so if you have any questions about my thoughts on your ‘hood, you know where to find me.

Today, I’ll be golfing (or maybe surfing).

San Francisco Real Estate Market Trends [ReReports.com]
Why The Fuss About Noe Valley [theFrontSteps]
What’s the Real Estate Forecast For Bernal Heights [theFrontSteps]
Tour De San Francisco: Clarendon Heights [theFrontSteps]
Factoring Weather When Buying A Home In San Francisco Is Anything But Easy [theFrontSteps]

Tour De San Francisco: Clarendon Heights

It took a little while, but true to our new year’s resolutions another stage of the Tour de San Francisco (real estate) has been completed.

For all of the new readers or those that might just be passing by, le Tour, as it pertains to real estate, is a look (mostly pictures) at all the nano-markets and different little districts that make up the greater city of San Francisco. Each district is a new stage and today marks the completion of Stage 51. Only about 49 stages left to go. With any luck it will be complete before le Tour de France kicks off in July.

Tour de San Francisco (real estate) [tdsf.blogspot.com]
Stage 51, Clarendon Heights [Tour de SF]

Mid-Century Movement (56 Clarendon)

Originally listed September 19, 2007 for $2,495,000, reduced to $2,300,000 two months later, and now sold for $2,250,000, 56 Clarendon, in Clarendon Heights, is a done deal.




Is this a significant “anecdote” of market information/fluctuation. We’ll let you decide that, we just wanted to highlight another gem of the mid-century.

56 Clarendon [mls]

more mid-century posts [theFrontSteps]