San Francisco Real Estate Market Recap May / June 2017

The median sales price hit an all-time high for both single family houses and condo/loft/TIC’s in May. The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand pushed the prices up and the overbids as well. Single family homes sold at a median overbid of 114.7%, the highest since October, 2015. Condos sold at a median of 103% of list price, the highest overbid percentage since May 2016.

As we discussed last month, the number of new single family home listings coming on the market was down sharply in April, 25.5%, and we saw that repeated again in May with a 12% year-on-year drop.

Likewise, the precipitous decline, 33.5%, in new condo/loft/TIC listings coming on the market in April, was followed by a 23% drop year-on-year for May. This is the third double-digit monthly year-on-year decline for new condo/loft/TIC listings this year.

The total number of single family homes sold was up 5.5% in May while condo/loft/TIC sales were unchanged.

Inventory stands at 1.8 months for single family homes, down 25% year-on-year, and 2.3 months for condo/loft/TICs, also down 25%.

What’s the translation of all of this? San Francisco continues to be an extremely competitive and “tight” housing market with way too little supply to satiate the incredible demand…especially for “affordable” (under $1.5M) single family homes. Also, check the market cycles…hot in Spring and Fall, cool in Winter and Summer.

As always, The Goods is your best bet for up to date recent sales activity in San Francisco, so get yourself over there and check it out. Also check out my new listing at 707 Cole.

San Francisco Median Home Price Hits All Time High

San Francisco’s continued hot housing market reflects the incredibly strong full-employment economy that the Bay Area and the U.S. is experiencing. Not only is unemployment in San Francisco historically low (3.3%), but also the number of employees who are involuntarily part-time is falling and older workers are remaining in the work force longer.

The impact of all of this very healthy jobs data is twofold: continued strong demand for our high-priced San Francisco housing; and fewer older workers retiring and moving out of the city. In fact, the number of new homes for sale year-to-date is 15.9% lower than in 2016, and the lowest number in the last 13 years. That combination of strong demand and fewer homes coming on the market led to the median sold price for single family homes rising to its highest level on record, $1,407,000, in April. That’s 1.99% higher than April, 2016.

The resale condo/loft/TIC market is competitive, but not quite as much. Prices have bounced around a bit, up one month and down the next. April’s median sold price, $1,100,000, was down a bit from February and March, and down 3.3% from April, 2016.

The number of new condo/loft/TIC listings coming on the market in April declined even more sharply, 33.5%, than March’s 25.8% drop. Inventory stands at 2.3 months, down from last April’s 3.0.

Competition among buyers is fierce, with most properties still receiving multiple offers. For single family homes, the median percentage overbid was 114%, up from April 2016’s 111.7%. Condo/loft/TIC buyers dropped their overbids a tiny amount, 102.3% of list price, versus 102.4% last April.

To say it another way…San Francisco real estate continues to roar on at a blistering pace, especially for single family homes, and especially if those homes are still under $1.5M. If you’re considering a move/sale, now is a great time.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Report, March 2017

The San Francisco real estate market continues to experience strong buyer demand and an exceptionally low number of homes and condos for sale. The strong demand is supported by a clean sweep of positive economic indicators just posted by The Conference Board, which reported that consumer confidence is at a 15 year high, and the Leading Economic Index, CEO Confidence, Help-Wanted Online, and the Employment Trends Index all rose in February.

Following the incredibly strong Snap IPO, Mulesoft, a San Francisco unicorn, filed for its IPO in February. This San Francisco-based company has over 700 employees who will be armed with a lot of cash following its IPO, anticipated later this year, which could further add to the number of buyers competing for properties.

The Federal Reserve Bank has said it is likely to raise its federal funds rate in March, with a second increase anticipated later in the year. These anticipated rate increases have already triggered a jump in mortgage rates, which now stand at 4.24% according to Mortgage News Daily.

In the following Infographic we see that the San Francisco single family home market dipped in median sales price, down 8.2% year-on-year. The number of sales were up 3.9%. The number of new listings dropped sharply, 37.6% fewer than last February, leading to a 10% drop in inventory to just 1.5 months of supply, which IMHO is correlating precisely with the “in the trenches” real-time buyer demand and multiple offer activity that we agents are experiencing first hand, but is yet to be shown on this “historical” data. The median sales price of single family homes also continues to be bid up above list price, coming in at 113% for February.

The news in condo/lofts sales is the sharp decline in the number of new listings in February, down 26.9% compared to last year. Sales were also down, but just by 10.3%. Inventory stands at only 2.1 months of supply. Median sales prices are up 4.9% year-on-year with the median price going 1.6% above list price.

State Of The Real Estate Union

If you had to guess, what would be the most common question you think a Realtor is asked?

“What’s my home worth?” No.

“Should I stage my home when I sell it?” No.

“Do you think interest rates are going to rise?” No.

All very close, and all very common questions we certainly answer more than we should (which is precisely why for the better part of a decade I’ve helped you answer those questions on your own), but by far the most common question asked by countless people (friends, clients, strangers at parties, on the ski lift, or out surfing) is….

“How’s the Market?”

Real Estate Porn For The People…

Who came down with a heavy case of the Mondays…and Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays? I did. Right here.


I know you all want the great real estate porn that got you on this site in the first place, but I’ve been busy, so I figured I’d make your life, and my life, easier…here you go: Check out The Goods, it’s all new, super sleek, works great on your mobile device, and has all of the same great data you’ve come to love (minus my snarky comments).

Want Top 20 Overbids…all there, all the time. Start to notice things like 135 Webster, finally dethroned by 572 Funston.

Want Top 20 Underbids…got those too. Marvel at places like (239 Arletta in Visitacion Valley, which sold for 20% BELOW list…wait for it…at $480,000 to clinch top spot on the Underbids. That’s a $600,000 home selling for $480,000 and the address on the post card to mom will read “San Francisco, CA”.

Looking for Hot New Listings. Gotcha covered there too. No need to wait for me to tell you about what just hit the market in your ‘hood. Grab properties like 164 Belvedere (drooling) and immediately share with your friends to plan your dinner parties when they buy it!

The Holy Grail…Recent Sales…got those too. I was the first in San Francisco to provide this valuable data to my clients on a regular basis, so why should I stop. Such an easy way to track what’s going on in your ‘hood without my annoying phone calls, texts, and emails to remind you how much you love me.

My buyers’ favorite…Stalefish…had to tone this down for the masses and call em 30+, but this is my site, and dammit if I don’t like calling them Stalefish better. A Stalefish is a property 30 DOM* or More…and would you believe 149 29th St is BOM*. For the record just cuz it’s Stale, doesn’t mean it stinks!

So there you have it. Now you don’t need me to update you as often. You want the Goods, you get the Goods. Spread the word.

Fellow agents…we are now offering my service of The Goods to you…your branding, your look, your site…update your people with the same great data. Contact us at info@thegoods-sf.com or nate@thegoods-sf.com to get your pages set up and start sharing this wonderful real estate market information with your people.

*BOM = Back On Market
*DOM = Days On Market
*Duh!

In San Francisco More Households Making Over $150,000/year Choose To Rent Than To Own

Check out this report the kind folks over at RentCafe just sent me:

“With all the talk about renters being squeezed out of the housing market and new high-end construction pushing up rents, we’ve decided to take a close-up look at Census data and see who’s actually driving today’s rental marketplace. We’ve put all our findings in this report here, in case you might be interested in checking them out and perhaps sharing the story with your readers.
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While affordability remains a major concern for many low-income renters, there’s a growing number of people that know nothing of – nor care about – the “30% of income on rent” rule of thumb. In fact, there’s a market for wealthy renters and it’s not lacking in demand!

The number of renter households that earn more than $150,000/year increased by 217% in 2015 compared to 2005, with a whopping 1.2 million affluent households joining the ever-growing rental pool in the last decade. Meanwhile, the number of homeowner households within the same income bracket has increased by a much lower 82%.

When broken down by city, things are even more surprising:
– Fort Worth leads the charts with a spectacular 77% increase in the number of high-income renters from 2014 to 2015.
San Francisco may be the second-most expensive rental market in the US – with a startling $3,472 in average monthly rent – but it’s also home to the second-largest number of renters that earn more than 150,000/year: 57K (who also outnumber wealthy homeowners in the city by 4%). That means that nearly 25% of all renter households in San Francisco are in the upper income bracket – the largest share of rich renters/city in the nation.
– Los Angeles has the third-highest number of wealthy renters in the country, approx. 51K, an 8% increase between 2014 and 2015. Still, the majority of LA renters (59.7%) earn less than 50,000/year.
– NYC is the mecca of people with big paychecks – not much of a surprise there. But did you know the Big Apple is home to approx. 212,000 renters that earn more than 150,000/year (approx. 10% of the total renter population)? That’s nearly four times more than the number of high-earning renters that call San Francisco home and 12 times the number of Boston’s affluent renters.”

The report – which you can find here: http://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/luxury-apartments/1-2-million-more-wealthy-renters-in-10-years/ – contains many more interesting facts and findings (plus some really cool visuals), that will certainly help you gauge local and national real estate economies.

Thanks for sending my way…makes you wonder why so many of those high income earners choose to rent as opposed to buy.

The Rise Of the Underbid

It used to be this Top 10 Underbids list was made up largely of the “ugly ducklings”…the properties nobody wanted…the overpriced “shoot for the stars” sellers…or the homes that just had too much hair on them. Not anymore. Check ’em out. The market has shifted for sure. Buyers…wake up! There are deals to be had all around San Francisco, as we speak.

San Francisco’s Weekly Top 10 Underbids

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
327 Cumberland Street 2 1.00 0 $2,350,000 $2,030,000 -13.62 %
2250 Vallejo 7 7.00 2 $25,000,000 $21,800,000 -12.80 %
2028 McAllister Street 3 1.00 3 $1,695,000 $1,500,000 -11.50 %
62 Glover Street 64 N/A N/A 2 $2,500,000 $2,275,000 -9.00 %
3233-3235 Steiner Street N/A N/A 2 $1,899,000 $1,765,000 -7.06 %
5211 Mission Street N/A N/A 2 $1,385,000 $1,290,000 -6.86 %
1379-1383 25th Avenue N/A N/A 2 $2,359,000 $2,200,000 -6.74 %
13 Surrey Street N/A N/A 0 $899,000 $840,000 -6.56 %
955 Rockdale Drive 4 2.50 2 $1,999,000 $1,875,000 -6.20 %
362 28th Avenue 2 1.00 1 $1,270,000 $1,193,500 -6.02 %

In case you missed it, check out 2250 Vallejo (sold for $21,800,000)…holy sh*t that’s a sweet house!

More Overbids, Underbids, Stalefish, New Listings, and Recent Sales [theGoods-sf.com]

San Francisco Market Report

Britain’s June vote to exit the EU has already had an impact on the market in the US, including here in San Francisco. Mortgage rates have dropped almost a quarter of a percent, making the monthly payments on our pricey housing slightly more affordable. The result is that it will support continuing increases in sales prices, as decreases in interest rates always do. For example, a $1,000,000 loan at 3.75% costs $4,631/month, but at 3.5% you can borrow $1,032,000 for the same monthly payment. And monthly payments are what buyers focus on.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published its upbeat Economic Forecast in June which indicated continued strong job and economic growth, continued low business and mortgage interest rates (this was published prior to the vote in Britain), coupled with historically low unemployment and inflation below the Fed’s target of 2%. The conclusion is that they see Gross Domestic Product growth around 2% for the year, at a “pace consistent with moderate ongoing expansion, which we expect to continue over the next few years.”

Of interest was their findings about the cause of the lower labor force participation rates that have been occurring since 2001 that have been noted by many previous reports. It turns out that because of the considerable shift in the wage gains during this time period to the higher income households, that these households have fewer multiple earners. On the opposite end of the spectrum, lower wage earners continue to need multiple earners to make ends meet.

The Fed report hypothesizes that this is a shift that the upper-income households have made in the work-life balance and that the workforce participation in this group may remain low. It is also mimicked by the young workers in upper-income households, where labor force participation is also significantly lower than in the general population.

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San Francisco Single Family Home median prices have been hovering between $1,352,000 and $1,380,000 for the past four months since peaking at $1,400,000 in February 2016. That was the second time median prices had hit that number, first back in May of 2015. With the drop in interest rates, we could break through that median price soon because that drop from 3.75% to 3.5% finances another $45,000 in the loan amount for the same monthly payment.

The Condo/Loft Median Sales Price hit an all time high of $1,180,000 in June 2016, up 4.9% from June 2015.

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Resale Condos-Lofts jumped 59% in both Days on Market and Months Supply of Inventory compared to June 2015, but both are still in strong sellers market territory.

Single Family Homes are up slightly in Days on Market from 16 to 20 both for May to June, 2016 and from June 2015 to June 2016. Months Supply of Inventory dropped from 2.3 in May to 1.9 in June 2016 and was also down from June 2015’s 2 months. Both market indicators continue to show a strong sellers market.

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Single Family Homes New Listings dropped by 55 from May to June 2016. It was also off 61 compared to June 2015. Of additional continuing importance is that the year-to-date number of new listings is down 60 from year-to-date 2015, a 4.1% decline. This helps explain why Months Supply of Inventory is lower than last year.

Resale Condos/Lofts had the reverse trend, with 1 more new listing on the market in June than May, 2016, and 27 more new listings in June 2016 than June 2015. And, significantly, year-to-date new listings are up 167 over year-to-date 2015, which represents a 10.3% increase in inventory. This helps explain why Months Supply of Inventory and Days on Market has risen sharply for Resale Condo/Lofts.

No Mass Exit from San Francisco on the Horizon

At last month’s SFARMLS Building Boom forum, the Bay Area Council presented its latest poll of Bay Area residents, and said that the results show that a third of Bay Area residents “are likely to bolt the region in the next few years”. In truth, that is a big overstatement of the poll results.

What the poll actually asked for was a response to: “I am likely to move out of the Bay Area in the next few years.” What people answered was: 13% said they strongly agree with that statement and 21% said they somewhat agree.

That is certainly not a third of the residents saying they are likely to “bolt” in the next few years. Exactly where would they go? Jobs are here, families are here, the great weather is here. There’s a reason our population is growing – this is a fabulous place to work and live, in spite of high prices and congestion.

May 2016 Central San Francisco Market Conditions

District 5

District 5’s (See SF Districts Map Here) April numbers continue their strong upwards trend with their highest ever median sales price of $2,287,500. Year-over-year, the median price is up 8.9%.

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Resale Condo/Loft Median Prices

Resale condo-loft median prices have resumed the downward trend that started last September with a brief uptick in January and February. hey dropped 2.3% from March to April, landing at $1,245,000, which is the lowest median sales price since April 2015. They are down 0.4% year-to-date and 9.6% since their peak at $1,377,000 September 2015.

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While Single Family Homes Days on Market inched up to 17 in April, they are still at historically low numbers.

Days on Market for Resale Condo/Lofts dropped from 19 to 16.

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Single Family Homes Months Supply of Inventory dropped slightly to 2.4 from March’s 2.5 and up from April, 2015’s 1.7.

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This April there were the same number of single family home listings as in April, 2015. Over all, there have been 136 new listings in District 5 this year, one fewer than last year.

There have been 43 fewer condo/loft listings brought on the market year-to-date in 2016 than 2015. This is a 26% drop. And this is the first time in four years that the number of new condo/loft listings was lower in April than March.

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