San Francisco Real Estate Market Update | March 2018

As of the end of February, there were fewer total home, condo and loft sales in the first two months of 2018 than in any of the previous ten years (Think about that for a second…). And while it’s impossible to say exactly what is causing the low number of sales, it is possible that buyer fatigue following six straight years of rising prices, interest rates jumps, and stock market volatility may all be contributing, or we’ve reached a point where “trading up” doesn’t make sense and therefore inventory is at an all time low.

At the same time, the median sold price per square foot for a single family home broke the $1000 threshold for the first time in San Francisco. That is up almost 150% since it bottomed out at $408 in January, 2012. And, enough buyers are still buying that prices are still rising. February’s median home price crossed $1,700,000, another first.

Single Family Homes:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,501,667 is up 17% over last year’s.

Year-to-date, new listings are down 7.4% while sales are down 9.7%.

February’s inventory of 1.4 months is 26% lower than in 2017.

80% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 113% in February.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
The three-month rolling average median sales price of $1,096,667 is up 3.13% over last year’s.

Year-to-date, new listings are down 14% while sales were up 9.2%.

February’s inventory of 1.9 months is 30% lower than in 2017.

59% of homes sold over their list price and the median percent of list price received was 103% in February.

There you have it…

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San Francisco Real Estate December 2017 Market Report

…and just like that, another year gone.

As for the month to month market shifts, the November San Francisco real estate market moved along pretty much as expected, with continued low inventory and the majority of properties selling above list price. Condo prices hit an all-time high of $1,230,000.

The proposed tax changes are very likely to affect future buyer behavior as they lose purchasing power with the loss of full deductibility of state income taxes and property taxes. That loss of purchasing power will likely dampen sales price increases. Stay tuned…

Single Family Homes:
November’s median sales price eased off a bit from October’s all-time high of $1,588,000, down to $1,500,000. However, prices are still up 10.7% compared to last year.

While new listings typically fall off in November, this year’s were exceptionally low at just 112, 19% fewer than last November. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 5% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 4.2%. Inventory remains very low at a 1.4 months supply, the lowest level since December 2016.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, staying at 115%, much higher than last November’s 107%. Eighty one percent (81%) of single family homes sold above the list price.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:

As mentioned above, the median sold price hit an all-time high in November. On a three-month rolling average, the median sold price is up 7.7% compared to last year.

Inventory is down 23% from October and 19% compared to November, 2016. Like single family homes, the number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 5.6%, while sales are up 3.2%.

Fifty nine percent (59%) of condo/loft/TIC listings sold above list price, down from 67% in October and 64% last November. The median overbid was 102%, the same as last November.

There you have it…now visuals:

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San Francisco Real Estate Market Report October 2017

Single Family Homes:
September’s median sales price continued its predictable seasonal backing off from its Spring peak in May of $1,475,000, off by 8.5% to $1,350,000. Prices are still up 10.9% above September, 2016.

Inventory is up from August’s 1.9 months to 2.1 months. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 7% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 2.6%.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, up to 115.6%, higher than last September’s 108%.

86.3% of single family homes sold above the list price, up from 77.5% last September.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
Median sold prices are up 7.8%, to $1,100,000, compared to September 2016’s 1,020,000.

Inventory is at the highest level so far for 2017, at 2.9 months. That is still down 17% from last September’s 3.4 months. Like single family homes, the number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are also down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 8.2%. However, unlike single family homes, sales are down, by 0.5%.

The slightly more balanced condo/loft/TIC market is keeping sold prices closer to list prices, at 101.1% of list price. This compares to last September’s 101.4%.

In September, 55% sold above list price, off from August’s 61% and last September’s 58%.

Facebook Snags Downtown SF Office Space | New Inventory Is Still Tight | Prices Up 10.4% YOY | And Overbids

Just when you thought maybe things would cool, Fall hits, listings are gobbled up, Overbids continue, multiple offers are the norm, pickin’s are still slim (even though at last check 100 new properties hit MLS today), and Facebook goes and signs a whopper of an office deal right next to Salesforce, around the corner from LinkedIn, and gives its commuter employees reason to rejoice and plant roots firmly in San Francisco.

I suspect this will play a role in our very basic supply/demand conundrum of the last 15 years, and counting.

As for our current market, here goes…

Single Family Homes:
August’s median sales price continued its predictable seasonal backing off from its Spring peak, dropping 6.4% to $1,380,000 from May’s $1,475,000. However, in the same time frame last year prices dipped 7.4%. Prices are still up 10.4% above August, 2016.

Since August, 2012, the median sold price in San Francisco is up 81%.

Inventory continues to be at its lowest level, 1.6 months, since last December. This is the ongoing result of fewer homes coming on the market while sales stay fairly constant. The number of new listings on the market year-to-date is down 7% from 2016 while the number of sales is up 3.3%.

The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand kept the level of overbids high as well, down a bit from July but still at 114%, and 79% of single family homes sold above the list price, up from 75.9% last August.

Condo/Loft/TIC’s:
Median sold prices are up 10.8%, to $1,175,000, compared to August 2016. And, while not as great a rise as with single family homes, the median sold price is up 62.5% compared to August 2012’s $723,000.

In August, 63.4% sold above list price and the median bid was 3.2% above list price.

The number of Condo/Loft/TIC listings are also down year-to-date compared to 2016, by 10.7%. And, like single family homes, sales are up, by 2.6%. Current inventory stands at a 2 months supply.

To see and share this in infographic form, see below.
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Let’s talk Overbids – The Top 10

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
1632 Pacheco Street 5/4.00/N/A 15 $995,000 $1,550,000 55.78%
1932 Ortega Street 2/2.00/N/A 10 $998,000 $1,425,000 42.79%
146 Beulah Street 2/1.00/ 14 $949,000 $1,350,000 42.26%
52 Dawnview Way 4/3.00/N/A 12 $1,250,000 $1,750,000 40.00%
177 Forest View Drive 3/2.00/N/A 18 $1,149,000 $1,580,000 37.51%
136 Andover Street 2/1.00/N/A 10 $1,099,000 $1,502,053 36.67%
1738 25th Avenue 4/3.00/N/A 11 $1,398,800 $1,800,000 28.68%
2319 15th Street 2/2.00/A 10 $1,195,000 $1,525,000 27.62%
217 Lowell Street 2/2.00/N/A 2 $849,000 $1,080,000 27.21%
62 Santa Ysabel Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 39 $998,000 $1,240,000 24.25%

Madness. Sheer madness, and I’ve been saying this for better part of a decade. It’s insane. So if you want to sell, check out my track record, and let’s get ‘er done in high fashion.

That’s all I have for you today. Finally some great weather out West Side of San Francisco, so get out and enjoy! Fall is in the air, cycling is great and getting crisp, surf is turning fun (water is warm too), and that means snow is on the way.

-Let’s be friends on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and/or LinkedIn…I’ll keep you updated on all things San Francisco Real Estate
Recent Sales [theFrontSteps]
The First Newsletter We Could Find (With Overbids)
Facebook Takes All of 432,000 Square Feet Commercial Space at 181 Fremont in San Francisco-The Registry
Facebook is dropping $35 million to lease a beautiful, earthquake-resistant skyscraper in San Francisco – take a look inside– Business Insider

San Francisco Real Estate Market Recap May / June 2017

The median sales price hit an all-time high for both single family houses and condo/loft/TIC’s in May. The incredibly tight supply coupled with strong demand pushed the prices up and the overbids as well. Single family homes sold at a median overbid of 114.7%, the highest since October, 2015. Condos sold at a median of 103% of list price, the highest overbid percentage since May 2016.

As we discussed last month, the number of new single family home listings coming on the market was down sharply in April, 25.5%, and we saw that repeated again in May with a 12% year-on-year drop.

Likewise, the precipitous decline, 33.5%, in new condo/loft/TIC listings coming on the market in April, was followed by a 23% drop year-on-year for May. This is the third double-digit monthly year-on-year decline for new condo/loft/TIC listings this year.

The total number of single family homes sold was up 5.5% in May while condo/loft/TIC sales were unchanged.

Inventory stands at 1.8 months for single family homes, down 25% year-on-year, and 2.3 months for condo/loft/TICs, also down 25%.

What’s the translation of all of this? San Francisco continues to be an extremely competitive and “tight” housing market with way too little supply to satiate the incredible demand…especially for “affordable” (under $1.5M) single family homes. Also, check the market cycles…hot in Spring and Fall, cool in Winter and Summer.

As always, The Goods is your best bet for up to date recent sales activity in San Francisco, so get yourself over there and check it out. Also check out my new listing at 707 Cole.

San Francisco Median Home Price Hits All Time High

San Francisco’s continued hot housing market reflects the incredibly strong full-employment economy that the Bay Area and the U.S. is experiencing. Not only is unemployment in San Francisco historically low (3.3%), but also the number of employees who are involuntarily part-time is falling and older workers are remaining in the work force longer.

The impact of all of this very healthy jobs data is twofold: continued strong demand for our high-priced San Francisco housing; and fewer older workers retiring and moving out of the city. In fact, the number of new homes for sale year-to-date is 15.9% lower than in 2016, and the lowest number in the last 13 years. That combination of strong demand and fewer homes coming on the market led to the median sold price for single family homes rising to its highest level on record, $1,407,000, in April. That’s 1.99% higher than April, 2016.

The resale condo/loft/TIC market is competitive, but not quite as much. Prices have bounced around a bit, up one month and down the next. April’s median sold price, $1,100,000, was down a bit from February and March, and down 3.3% from April, 2016.

The number of new condo/loft/TIC listings coming on the market in April declined even more sharply, 33.5%, than March’s 25.8% drop. Inventory stands at 2.3 months, down from last April’s 3.0.

Competition among buyers is fierce, with most properties still receiving multiple offers. For single family homes, the median percentage overbid was 114%, up from April 2016’s 111.7%. Condo/loft/TIC buyers dropped their overbids a tiny amount, 102.3% of list price, versus 102.4% last April.

To say it another way…San Francisco real estate continues to roar on at a blistering pace, especially for single family homes, and especially if those homes are still under $1.5M. If you’re considering a move/sale, now is a great time.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Report, March 2017

The San Francisco real estate market continues to experience strong buyer demand and an exceptionally low number of homes and condos for sale. The strong demand is supported by a clean sweep of positive economic indicators just posted by The Conference Board, which reported that consumer confidence is at a 15 year high, and the Leading Economic Index, CEO Confidence, Help-Wanted Online, and the Employment Trends Index all rose in February.

Following the incredibly strong Snap IPO, Mulesoft, a San Francisco unicorn, filed for its IPO in February. This San Francisco-based company has over 700 employees who will be armed with a lot of cash following its IPO, anticipated later this year, which could further add to the number of buyers competing for properties.

The Federal Reserve Bank has said it is likely to raise its federal funds rate in March, with a second increase anticipated later in the year. These anticipated rate increases have already triggered a jump in mortgage rates, which now stand at 4.24% according to Mortgage News Daily.

In the following Infographic we see that the San Francisco single family home market dipped in median sales price, down 8.2% year-on-year. The number of sales were up 3.9%. The number of new listings dropped sharply, 37.6% fewer than last February, leading to a 10% drop in inventory to just 1.5 months of supply, which IMHO is correlating precisely with the “in the trenches” real-time buyer demand and multiple offer activity that we agents are experiencing first hand, but is yet to be shown on this “historical” data. The median sales price of single family homes also continues to be bid up above list price, coming in at 113% for February.

The news in condo/lofts sales is the sharp decline in the number of new listings in February, down 26.9% compared to last year. Sales were also down, but just by 10.3%. Inventory stands at only 2.1 months of supply. Median sales prices are up 4.9% year-on-year with the median price going 1.6% above list price.

State Of The Real Estate Union

If you had to guess, what would be the most common question you think a Realtor is asked?

“What’s my home worth?” No.

“Should I stage my home when I sell it?” No.

“Do you think interest rates are going to rise?” No.

All very close, and all very common questions we certainly answer more than we should (which is precisely why for the better part of a decade I’ve helped you answer those questions on your own), but by far the most common question asked by countless people (friends, clients, strangers at parties, on the ski lift, or out surfing) is….

“How’s the Market?”

Real Estate Porn For The People…

Who came down with a heavy case of the Mondays…and Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays? I did. Right here.


I know you all want the great real estate porn that got you on this site in the first place, but I’ve been busy, so I figured I’d make your life, and my life, easier…here you go: Check out The Goods, it’s all new, super sleek, works great on your mobile device, and has all of the same great data you’ve come to love (minus my snarky comments).

Want Top 20 Overbids…all there, all the time. Start to notice things like 135 Webster, finally dethroned by 572 Funston.

Want Top 20 Underbids…got those too. Marvel at places like (239 Arletta in Visitacion Valley, which sold for 20% BELOW list…wait for it…at $480,000 to clinch top spot on the Underbids. That’s a $600,000 home selling for $480,000 and the address on the post card to mom will read “San Francisco, CA”.

Looking for Hot New Listings. Gotcha covered there too. No need to wait for me to tell you about what just hit the market in your ‘hood. Grab properties like 164 Belvedere (drooling) and immediately share with your friends to plan your dinner parties when they buy it!

The Holy Grail…Recent Sales…got those too. I was the first in San Francisco to provide this valuable data to my clients on a regular basis, so why should I stop. Such an easy way to track what’s going on in your ‘hood without my annoying phone calls, texts, and emails to remind you how much you love me.

My buyers’ favorite…Stalefish…had to tone this down for the masses and call em 30+, but this is my site, and dammit if I don’t like calling them Stalefish better. A Stalefish is a property 30 DOM* or More…and would you believe 149 29th St is BOM*. For the record just cuz it’s Stale, doesn’t mean it stinks!

So there you have it. Now you don’t need me to update you as often. You want the Goods, you get the Goods. Spread the word.

Fellow agents…we are now offering my service of The Goods to you…your branding, your look, your site…update your people with the same great data. Contact us at info@thegoods-sf.com or nate@thegoods-sf.com to get your pages set up and start sharing this wonderful real estate market information with your people.

*BOM = Back On Market
*DOM = Days On Market
*Duh!