San Francisco Single Family Real Estate Appreciation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to houses, the next post is specific to condominiums appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new home construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.



The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas, especially in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If this situation applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.






As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market don’t hesitate to ask.

If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.

Go Giants!

San Francisco Real Estate Third Quarter Report

San Francisco House & Condo Values
Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales?
Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why?

September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until most close escrow in October and early November. In the meantime, we’ll look at the last 2 quarters.

Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The following 2 charts look at current and longer-term trends in home values. As is common, median house sales prices dropped a bit in the 3rd quarter – this is due mostly to seasonality issues – though condos have held steady for 3 quarters now at $950,000. Dollar per square foot values have continued to increase to new peaks: This metric is particularly being impacted by new-development condo sales, which are breaking dollar per square foot records virtually everyplace they’re being built.

If you wish to drill down on values in very specific city neighborhoods, we recently updated our interactive map, which can be found here: SF Home Price Map


Where Home Sales Occur at What Prices

Opportunity For Fence Sitting Sellers And Desperate Buyers

Are you somebody that lives in San Francisco, has a home that is either on one level or contains an elevator, and you’ve been on the fence about selling your home? PocketListings.net has a buyer for you, they aren’t picky about their neighborhood, and they have $2,000,000 to spend.

Maybe you are a resident living in Pacific Heights, Sea Cliff, Cow Hollow, or Presidio Heights and you don’t want all the hullabaloo of listing on MLS, but you’d love for a buyer to come take a look at your home. PocketListings.net has a couple of those multi-million dollar buyers too.

Are you a buyer looking for a two unit building in the Marina? PocketListings.net has that too!

The moral of this story is if you are a buyer or seller anywhere in the United States, and especially in San Francisco (our hottest market), you should not only be visiting the site yourselves, but telling your real estate agent to do the same. There are opportunities galore, and it’s getting better every day!

Single Family Home Buyer Needing One Level Or Elevator Home
Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Sea Cliff Buyer [PocketListings.net]
Marina Two Unit Building “Not On MLS”, $2,800,000 [PocketListings.net]

~3800 Square Foot Sea Cliff Home (Fixer) For You

If you have it in you to get an A+ Sea Cliff property with views like this
…. give me shout, because have I got the roughly 3800 square foot home on a roughly 5600 square foot lot on the end of Lake Street just for you.

Principals only please. I am NOT representing the seller, but I’ve known about it for a while. I’ve tried to get it for a couple developers already, but to no avail. It looks like the asking price will cut the developers out of the picture, thus only making sense for a family looking to buy a Sea Cliff fixer, sink $500,000+ into it, and end up with their dream $3.5MM to $4MM property in one of San Francisco’s best neighborhoods. So if you fit that description, give me a shout and we can talk about the property and how I can help you get it.

134 32nd Ave. Quietly Marketed “Off Market”

You can look from this angle:

…or this angle:

…or this angle, and you’ll find the same house. You can also look right here or right here and you’ll get pretty darn close, but if you look right here, or here or here, you’ll come up empty as this home has “not been on the market in over 30 years,” but it’s available right now, as we speak…just not on MLS. Price? A cool $2,000,000 for four bedrooms, three baths, three parking spaces, one great hiking trail, golf course, beach, and museum out your door, and one big landmark (Golden Gate Bridge) view around every corner.

Sea Cliff Pocket Listing [PocketListings.net]

Another Reason to Love Living Here: The Heights

Seacliff in San Francisco

Fridays are for less serious real estate topic-age, so here is a meaningless poll and a tribute to another characteristic that makes SF unique.

Riding my bike through the Presidio last Saturday, I decided to cruise Presidio Heights. And oh my, the elevation-  in status, I mean. It’s dizzying. The homes are palatial, complete with giant grand pianos, harps, chandeliers,  all of which one can glimpse through elaborate stained glass windows. This got me wondering: why did I pick “teacher” as a career path?

But I digress. From a real estate standpoint, which Heights are really the highest (as in, highest class)? Where would you most desire to spend your halcyon days?

For my money, the top four are Presidio Heights, Pacific Heights, Telegraph Hill, and Sea Cliff.

No offense to any other Heights or Hills. Let’s be honest: SF is chock full of breath taking views from almost every corner (and I’d be thrilled to own a house in any of them), but if we include proximity to open space (like the Presidio or the ocean), the size of the homes and their lots, yards (front, back, side) and those cool carriage houses in back that are bigger than most people’s primary residences, then really, these four take the cake.

But I’m a sucker for parks and beaches, and if I have to pick from there, it’s sand and surf forever. My vote then is Sea Cliff.

Here are four ridiculously lush listings, one in each of my hypothetical contender’s neighborhoods. Study them, perhaps shedding a tear for your own career choice. From your own city explorer insight, which height is really the tops? Are certain areas more steady as investments? Are these places really worth all this dough? And are there really still enough buyers for places like this? After all, the four below are just four of myriad listings on the MLS for well over 3 million dollars, when the the San Francisco Census put the median income in our fair city at less than $70k.

2901 Broadway (Pacific Heights) (7 Bedroom mansion for $45 million.)

37 Presidio Ave (Presidio Heights)  (7 Bedroom single family for or $5, 395,000)

632 El Camino Del Mar (Sea Cliff) (5 Bedroom single family for $9,000,000)

 1454 Kearny St. (Telegraph Hill) (3 Bedroom single family for $3,500,000)


Sea Cliff shot via Panoramio

Friday Pool Party! (610 El Camino del Mar)

It’s Friday. We’re sparing you from the video, and instead bringing more real estate porn in the form of 610 El Camino del Mar for $6.2M, and that includes the pool.


Not so sure about that pirate ship that appears to be floating over the water, but for $6.2M, we guess you get to make your own rules. Or maybe those pirates stole the high resolution photos. Hmmm.

610 El Camino del Mar [sfnewsletter listing detail]

$605,000 less than it was (2801 Lake)… actually $1,205,000 less.

Originally listed at $4.2M in 2003, 2801 Lake was hacked to $3.6M and just recently hacked again to the current price of $2,995,000. That is a MAJOR reduction that may or may not indicate something about the market, but it sure as hell indicates something about staging and getting your home ready to sell.




There were so many of these rooms, it was hard to pick just one, so I went with the picture medley. Now I’ll go bandage my bleeding lips, as I had to bite them so hard to refrain from commenting. Maybe we should see who can come up with the best caption for each photo. Photos 1-4, starting on the top.

Happy Friday!

[Update: Sold for $2,580,000 on 12/18/2007]