Maximum Overbid of the Week | Bernal Heights Fixer Wins Again

It’s Friday! Yeah! (If you’re not a Realtor who works every weekend.) That means overbids, and look at that, another fixer takes the cake. This time it’s 554 Anderson in Bernal Heights, a 2 bed, 1 bath home listed for $549,000 and sold for $920,000. As for the rest of the top 10, I think this is the first time we’ve seen the list not contain one single property over $2,000,000.

Top 10 San Francisco Real Estate Overbids:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
554 Anderson Street 2/1.00/N/A 10 $549,000 $920,000 67.58%
1397 12th Avenue 2/1.00/ 38 $525,000 $750,000 42.86%
2751 23rd Street 2753 2-4 Units 14 $1,200,000 $1,700,000 41.67%
2077 Jackson Street 2/2.00/301 21 $995,000 $1,220,000 22.61%
933 Stanyan Street 3/2.00/ 9 $1,399,000 $1,700,000 21.52%
264 Grand View Avenue 1/1.00/N/A 37 $998,000 $1,192,999 19.54%
191 Cleo Rand 2/1.50/ 15 $528,000 $630,000 19.32%
566 South Van Ness Avenue 2/2.00/9 76 $795,000 $945,000 18.87%
518 Oak Street 2/1.00/N/A 13 $1,249,000 $1,475,000 18.09%
1535 Oak Street 1/1.00/2 41 $699,000 $815,000 16.60%

Top 10 Underbids | Would You Believe 20% UNDER Asking In Bernal?

15 prospect

The market is cooler…no doubt.. Is it seasonal, or longer term? Time will tell. As you saw last week, Overbids are still rampant, but more and more emails are coming to me, “Still Available”, “Offers as they come”, “Motivated Seller”, etc. Could we be approaching the year of the buyer?

Out of the 10 Underbids featured, 4 are multi-unit buildings, which made up the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place on our list. The #1 underbid goes to a Bernal Heights duplex – a “Tremendous Bernal Heights Fixer” to be exact, 15 Prospect Avenue, which just closed 20% under asking or at $950,000 from its $1,199,000 list price. Looks like my buddy Eddie O’Sullivan got his clients a nice little project. Well done lad…

As for the rest, this is how it stacked up.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
15 Prospect Avenue 2-4 Units $1,199,000 $950,000 -20.77 %
622-626 Buchanan Street 2-4 Units $1,399,000 $1,250,000 -10.65 %
161-165 Cook Street 2-4 Units $2,395,000 $2,150,000 -10.23 %
2287 16th Avenue 4/2/2 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 -9.94 %
301 Mission Street #49D 2/3/2 $4,588,000 $4,180,000 -8.89 %
2829-2831 Pierce Street 2-4 Units $2,970,000 $2,750,000 -7.41 %
3260 Baker Street 3/2/2 $2,999,000 $2,800,000 -6.64 %
1308 Valencia Street 4/3.5/1 $2,499,000 $2,350,000 -5.96 %
265 Minerva Street 2/1/1 $699,999 $659,000 -5.86 %
2869 Broderick Street 4/3/2 $3,500,000 $3,300,000 -5.71 %

For more Good Real Estate Stuff…check out The Goods.

18prospect

Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Kitchen & Bathroom Cost Extra In Bernal Heights

With so many great pictures from which to choose, how do you pick just one? You don’t. You must see to believe… 18 Prospect, a 3 bed, 1 bath, single family in Bernal Heights takes this week’s Overbid cake giving new meaning to the term “development opportunity”.

Listed at $829,000 and SOLD for $1,250,000 (cash of course), it should come as no surprise it gets top Overbid honors. How do you price the ultimate fixer? You price it low, and let it go. Whether it comes with a kitchen and bath, or not, is up for debate. Looks like neighbor building is next.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
18 Prospect Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 11 $829,000 $1,250,000 50.78%
185 Stonecrest Drive 3/2.00/N/A 13 $998,000 $1,388,000 39.08%
1771 39th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 27 $849,000 $1,170,000 37.81%
627 46th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 13 $799,000 $1,061,000 32.79%
1355 Holloway Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 14 $988,888 $1,308,500 32.32%
4130 21st Street 2/1.50/N/A 12 $1,298,000 $1,710,000 31.74%
2750 Harrison 3/2.00/top 8 $1,050,000 $1,380,000 31.43%
2829 California Street 2/2.00/4C 15 $1,899,000 $2,455,000 29.28%
336 Jules Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 16 $798,000 $1,030,000 29.07%
320 Alabama Street 2/2.00/15 11 $1,048,000 $1,350,000 28.82%

It’s important to note, these properties had largely gone into contract a few weeks (or more) ago…there is potentially a shift in the tide happening at the moment. We are seeing more properties set offer dates and not receive any. Price reductions are starting to happen, and the behind the scenes pleading from my colleagues to “bring your buyers, motivated sellers” are increasing. Could we have reached the peak? Time will tell. For now, there are still far too many buyers for the limited amount of property available, so any change ain’t happening overnight, but it might be happening.

Stay tuned…

San Francisco New Listings, Recent Sales, Overbids, Underbids and more [theGoods]

682 Duncan

Maximum Overbids Of the Week | $625,000 Over In Noe Valley | 291 Square Foot Studio Sells For $415,000

And the winner is…682 Duncan for a mere $625,000 over asking, and just shy of $1600 per square foot:
682 Duncan

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
682 Duncan Street 3/2.00/N/A 12 $1,050,000 $1,675,000 59.52%
430 Nevada Street 2/1.00/N/A 27 $699,000 $1,065,000 52.36%
1520 15th Street 2/1.00/N/A 22 $799,000 $1,175,000 47.06%
2219 25th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 13 $949,000 $1,380,000 45.42%
850 35th Avenue 2/1.50/N/A 38 $950,000 $1,380,000 45.26%
1994 45th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 28 $799,000 $1,130,000 41.43%
195 7th Street 0/1.00/306 38 $299,000 $415,000 38.80%
1257 Union Street 2/1.00/ 12 $1,195,000 $1,650,000 38.08%
1269 27th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 19 $1,108,000 $1,510,000 36.28%
136 Bradford Street 4/2.00/N/A 43 $899,000 $1,225,000 36.26%

Did you notice that little (291 square feet) sale for $415,000 at 195 7th Street?

As many of you know, I’ve been doing this Maximum Overbid feature for about 12 years running, maybe more. It started on sfnewsletter…it actually started sfnewsletter. Then I started posting the Maximum Overbids here, sometimes regularly, sometimes not. As much as these stats are great information, and surely get you scratching your head, they are not an indication of the market as a whole, and I know that very well. That is why I share not only the top 20 Overbids, but also Underbids, as well as properties still on the market more than 30 days. I share new listings of the past two weeks, as well as recent sales…not just overbids. I share this awesome information via The Goods. And in case you haven’t noticed, I share a sh*t ton of other data too.

I do all of this so you, the buyer, the seller, the renter, the owner, the neighbor, the landlord, the whatever you are, can educate yourself on properties and activity in your area. I’ve always felt it is important for you to know as much, or more than me about the market. If you appreciate this information, I encourage you to contact me when you, or anyone you know, are ready to buy or sell real estate. I encourage you to sign up for sfnewsletter, and I encourage you to follow this blog via email (opt-in form is below).

I am an expert at marketing property to get top dollar, and an expert at getting offers accepted for buyers, and I’d love to work with you. I’m no good at juggling and basketball, so don’t ask me to help you with that.

Have a great weekend!

Alex Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351

elseworth

San Francisco | Top 10 Overbids Of The Week

As if last week wasn’t painful enough for you buyers. The top spot this week comes in a meager 67% above the list price of $850,000 for a sales price of $1,425,000. Bernal Heights, FTW! But don’t overlook the Mission district single family home at 3336 23rd Street that fetched $811,000 over asking either:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
99 Ellsworth St 2/1.50/N/A 12 $850,000 $1,425,000 67.65%
1365 Union St 1367 2-4 Units 8 $1,999,000 $3,150,000 57.58%
3475 Jackson St 4/3.50/N/A 12 $3,995,000 $6,175,000 54.57%
3336 23rd St 3/2.00/N/A 16 $1,495,000 $2,306,000 54.25%
1644 Great Highway 4/2.00/N/A 19 $799,000 $1,210,000 51.44%
197 Lower Ter 2/2.00/N/A 13 $995,000 $1,500,000 50.75%
61 Germania St 2/1.50/ 7 $899,000 $1,310,000 45.72%
88 Norton St 2/1.00/N/A 14 $659,000 $950,000 44.16%
2266 Jackson St 3/2.50/ 7 $1,695,000 $2,410,000 42.18%
514 Elizabeth St 2/1.00/ 15 $1,095,000 $1,555,000 42.01%

Wowza…

[Editor’s Note: Overbids are calculated by way of percentage over, not dollar amount over.]

To see the Top 20 Overbids, as well as top 20 Underbids (they exist), check out The Goods that I provide.

Have a great weekend!

3800washington

Stalefish: You Won’t Believe Your Eyes

There is a little something in our market, of which many buyers are not aware, and many agents overlook. I have long referred to them as “Stalefish“, but others refer to them as “buying opportunity” or “still available property”, or what we named (on theGoods) as the “30+ Club”. What are these, you ask?

They are, quite simply, properties on the market more than 30 days, and darnit if there aren’t quite a few gems out there that I’d love you to buy.

Getting beat up in Noe Valley? Check out 469 Valley:
469valley
This is a 3220 square foot remodeled view home in Noe Valley…and it’s still available! Deck, garden, master suite, it has it all. Listed at $2,989,000.

Not your cup of tea? Check out 27-29 Fountain, also in Noe Valley:
27Fountain
Previously listed at $2,900,000, this detached Victorian with 4 bedrooms, booming views, decks, parking, yard, and a great location is now $2,600,000! You just saved $300,000. Opportunity knocking right here.

Maybe you don’t like Noe, and you’d rather be in Cole Valley – sorry, nada. But keep checking!

You think Pacific Heights never has anything for you? Think again. This absolutely stunning home at 2701 Broadway is still there:
SONY DSC

SONY DSC
“Comprised of five levels encompassing over 16,000 square feet the home includes 7 bedrooms, 7 full baths, and 4 half-baths, plus 2 kitchens, 2 family rooms, 2 offices, 3 rooftop terraces, a basketball/sport court, plus a multitude of rooms for today’s active lifestyle. 2 car garage,” and a bargain price of $39,000,000.

Okay, so maybe $39,000,000 is a bit more than you can handle, and you really don’t like basketball anyway. Maybe surfing is more your thing? Well…you’re in luck. It just so happens this little fish at 2307 40th Ave is still there:
230740thAVe
It’s “beautifully remodeled and updated”, close to the beach, and other “neighborhood conveniences like Walgreens” (huh?), and from what I can tell, very ready to be sold.

So if you’re getting beat out by the hordes of buyers all over the hot new listings, and you have possibly overlooked those homes that weren’t exactly perfect, you might like to give this list another glance. And if you’re an agent, you might like to send this invaluable information to your clients (branded to you, or course).

Whether you call ’em Stalefish, or otherwise, no matter how you slice it, there is opportunity out there in many shapes, sizes, and prices. Prices which, at this point, could be very negotiable.

Time to go fishing!

p.s. Wondering about the home with all the marble columns? It’s available too: 3800 Washington, $17,995,000, and it’s frickin amazing!

Stalefish, 30+ Club, Buying Opportunity: Find it all here
Battle Royale: Cole Valley Versus Noe Valley [theFrontSteps]

[Big Ass Disclaimer: Every property in this post and on the Goods 30+Club is listed as “active” on MLS. All information is deemed to be accurate, but not guaranteed.]

Beautiful 2 Bedroom

SOLD | 220 Mullen | Bernal Heights | $1,015,000

mullenkitchen
I’m happy to report my client successfully beat out multiple buyers on this great two bedroom home at 220 Mullen in San Francisco’s Bernal Heights neighborhood. Listed at $799,000, our original offer was countered by the seller, along with some of the others (we call that “multiple counter offer”), and low and behold, we prevailed. The home is perfect for my client now and in the future.

Congratulations! You deserved this “win” after those other painful losses.

220 Mullen, 2bed, 1 bath, $1,015,000, Bernal Heights [Property detail page]

overbidnevada

From 32% In NOPA To 65% On Nevada – San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

It’s Friday, that means it’s time for the Top 10 Maximum Overbids of the week. As usual, there are some doozies, but nothing I would consider ultimate shockers like a few of the last weekly Top 10’s we’ve seen. The number one spot goes to the “Contractor’s Special” on Nevada in Bernal Heights that fetched 65% over (totally in line with market sales price, and not easy to price this type of property). The number 10 spot goes to my clients that finally won after so many years searching – 538 Baker in NOPA that was “only” 32% over asking and the winner out of 15 other offers, two of which were actually higher than ours and all cash. We had a loan. But we “won”.

Anyhow, on with the show. The Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco this past week:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
270 Nevada St 1/1.00/N/A 14 $530,000 $876,000 65.28%
866 Cayuga Ave 4/3.00/N/A 20 $928,000 $1,380,000 48.71%
27 Day St 3/1.00/N/A 43 $895,000 $1,310,000 46.37%
1271 15th Ave 1273 4/3.50/ 13 $1,795,000 $2,550,000 42.06%
307 Parker Ave 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,250,000 $1,710,000 36.80%
25 Miraloma Dr 3/2.00/N/A 10 $1,050,000 $1,420,000 35.24%
1150 Holloway Ave 2/1.00/N/A 35 $889,000 $1,200,000 34.98%
320 Castenada Ave 3/1.50/N/A 26 $1,695,000 $2,250,000 32.74%
471 Hickory St 2/1.00/N/A 5 $1,060,000 $1,400,000 32.08%
538 Baker 2/1.50/N/A 11 $948,000 $1,250,000 31.86%

On a side note, one of my listings will hopefully be closing today, and believe me when I say we knocked it out of the park. Will we make the Top 10? No, but maybe we’ll scratch into the Top 20.

If you’re curious what your property might sell for, give me a shout.

Have a great weekend!

Top 20 Overbids Delivered to Your Door (Inbox) [sfnewsletter.com]
Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? It’s Competitive Pricing [theFrontSteps]
Top 20 Underbids [sfnewsletter.com]

Five White-Hot Districts In A Red-Hot San Francisco Real Estate Market

July 2013 Special Report

Virtually every area of San Francisco and the Bay Area has been experiencing dramatic home-value appreciation in the past 12 to 18 months. Some that were hard hit by distressed property sales, which experienced the largest price declines, have surged in price but remain 20% – 30% below previous peak values reached in 2006 – 2008. As a state, California is still about 25% below its 2007 pre-crash median home price. And in San Francisco itself, many if not most neighborhoods now appear to have re-attained or moved slightly beyond previous high points.

But in this past quarter, a handful of neighborhoods and districts in the city have leapt well beyond the highest average home values achieved in the past. Interestingly, comparing these white-hot areas with one another, there are often huge differences in property type, era and style of construction, and neighborhood culture or ambiance. But all of them have been very affected by affluent – often newly affluent – high-tech professionals of one age group and level of affluence or another. Naturally, these neighborhoods are highly desired by other buyers too – often professionals in finance, bio-tech, medicine and law – but the high-tech-buyer dynamic has generally super-charged these markets in particular.

However, please note that the difference we’re talking about between these neighborhoods and the rest of the city is between white hot and red hot: Quite honestly, they’re all very hot markets right now.

The Inner Mission 

Super hot, super hip, generally young: this neighborhood has seen very dramatic changes since the early nineties as a classic process of gentrification occurred — changes which have recently accelerated. Houses here are often large, classic Victorians, while the condos are mostly modern, built within the last decade or so. This area has a large, vibrant and diverse commercial district centered around Mission and Valencia Streets, but is still close to Noe Valley and the Castro. This chart focuses on the condo market, in which values are approximately 15% above the previous peak.

Noe Valley – Eureka Valley (Castro) – Dolores Heights 

These neighborhoods are part of a district that includes Cole Valley, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon & Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Mission Dolores and Glen Park, all of which have seen enormous recent appreciation. Housing here is typically older, built in the first 4 decades of the last century; there are many parks for kids and pets; the streets are tree-lined and the ambiance of the neighborhoods is relaxed and family friendly. This district surged in popularity and price in the mid-late nineties, was one of the last to peak in value in 2008, and has been at the forefront of the market rebound which started early here, in 2011. Among other advantages, it has relatively easy access to highways south to Silicon Valley. The district also has a large condo market, but this chart focuses on house values.

South Beach & Yerba Buena 

After the Embarcadero freeway came down in 1991 and then AT&T Park built in 2000, this area changed from a place for B-class offices and car stereo installations to the home of some of the most dramatic and expensive condo and loft buildings in the country. More condos are now sold here than anyplace else in the city and high-floor units with staggering views often sell for millions of dollars – one sold for $28 million. It’s popular with a number of demographics – high-tech and bio-tech workers working in offices nearby in SoMa and Mission Bay, financial district professionals, and empty-nesters who want to enjoy city life and have all the amenities, but without the responsibility of maintaining a house. Affluent foreign buyers are also a significant segment. Its neighborhood ambiance is very urban. This chart is for condos below the price of $1,800,000, but the dynamic for ultra-luxury condos is also white hot, with an average dollar per square foot value of over $1200.

Bernal Heights 

Like Noe Valley and Glen Park, Bernal Heights was originally a blue-collar neighborhood filled with Victorian houses. Noe Valley soared in value first, becoming wildly popular, and now people who want a similar family-friendly neighborhood ambiance, but at a more affordable cost, have increasingly turned to Bernal Heights. It also has easy access to highways south to the peninsula.

 

Hayes Valley-North of Panhandle (NoPa)-Alamo Square

This condo market is made up of two totally different types: Edwardian flats that have been turned into condos and brand new, ultra-modern condo developments. The Hayes Valley commercial district is very hot and hip, similar to, but still different from the Mission’s Valencia Street. Buyers who are priced out of the nearby Cole Valley-Haight Ashbury condo market often look here for a similar neighborhood ambiance at lower cost. Hayes Valley is also close to the Civic Center cultural cluster of museum, opera, symphony, ballet and other performing arts, which appeals to another buyer demographic as well.

To put all of these charts into one simple suggestion: It’s a great time to sell your property in San Francisco, and our market desperately needs the inventory!

If you have questions or would like information regarding a neighborhood not listed above, please contact us.

San Francisco Real Estate Data, Focus On The Volume On Your Block, Not The Median In Your City

“After hitting a two year low in January, the median price for single-family re-sale homes rose 18.6% in March from February. Year-over-year, the median price was off for the seventh month in a row, falling 3.1%.

After falling to their lowest level since January 2009 in February, home sales bounced back last month, which is normal for this time of year, and rose 75% from February. The 203 home sales last month were 7.7% lower than last March.”

Single Family Stats:

Condominium Stats:

One can argue the merits of medians, averages, days on market and generally just about anything in this data, and one can certainly spin it however they like. Read any number of Realtor blogs/sites and the market is gravy. Read any number of market bashing blogs and it’s all still doom and gloom. Because of this market spin that makes my head spin, I like to focus on one thing…sales volume…more specifically sales volume by district, even nano-district.

We’re coming off of a historical market thrashing. Naturally, prices are going all over the map. So what I really want to know is, if there is sales activity where my client either needs to buy or sell property. If property is moving, that is a good thing. If they’re getting stale, that is bad.

For San Francisco single family homes, we can see year over year (YoY) sales volume is down 7.7%, but up 75% compared to the month prior. Pick District 7 North (roughly Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow) and you’ll see that not only is volume up YoY (8.3%), but also up 225% on the month, whereas District 1 (roughly Richmond, Sea Cliff, Lake, Lone Mountain) is down 25% YoY, but up 50% on the month. (The fact home values in the Richmond are grouped with Sea Cliff is an entirely different nano breakdown that could further skew the numbers…ever seen a $15,000,000 home sell in the Richmond? Anyway….) In any given neighborhood, it is good that volume is up on the month (but also expected given the season), but bad that it is down on the year, because last year was a brutal year, so how could it go anywhere but up? That makes me cautiously optimistic.

For Condos we see YoY sales volume is down 7.2%, but up 28.8% on the month. That is a much more modest gain as compared to single families, and another indication that single family homes are still, and likely always will be, in more demand in San Francisco (because there are so few of them.) But look at District 5 Central (Noe Valley, Haight, Cole Valley, Glen Park…all together? Seriously?) volume is up 2.6% from last year, and 81.8% from the month prior.

The verdict? The San Francisco real estate market is both showing signs of strength, but also still many signs of weakness. You need to really take a close look at the data being presented in any articles you read (as opposed to just reading the headline and story), and you really need to figure out what the market is doing in your neighborhood, and specifically, on your block. Sales volume is (to me) most important, because it is your indication of whether properties are selling, or not. Average and median prices got pummeled, so don’t lose sleep over them. If you have to move and sell now, focus on pricing, get the highest and best price you can, and don’t stress over whether the seller 20 blocks away got more, because it could just be a result of the weather.

I’ve always said “San Francisco” data is way too generic for all of our little nano-markets, so if you have any questions about my thoughts on your ‘hood, you know where to find me.

Today, I’ll be golfing (or maybe surfing).

San Francisco Real Estate Market Trends [ReReports.com]
Why The Fuss About Noe Valley [theFrontSteps]
What’s the Real Estate Forecast For Bernal Heights [theFrontSteps]
Tour De San Francisco: Clarendon Heights [theFrontSteps]
Factoring Weather When Buying A Home In San Francisco Is Anything But Easy [theFrontSteps]