San Francisco Real Estate Market Splitting In Two

The reports are starting to come in, with Paragon, Sothebys, Pacific Union, I also touched on the subject in my last sfnewsletter, and now our very own Keller Williams team reporting the same thing…a softening condo market (mostly in areas in and around SOMA), and still very robust single family homes market, especially under $1.5M, and double Especial (preferably Modelo) in the Richmond/Sunset Districts (with lime and salt).


As always, I’m here to help…


Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Kitchen & Bathroom Cost Extra In Bernal Heights

With so many great pictures from which to choose, how do you pick just one? You don’t. You must see to believe… 18 Prospect, a 3 bed, 1 bath, single family in Bernal Heights takes this week’s Overbid cake giving new meaning to the term “development opportunity”.

Listed at $829,000 and SOLD for $1,250,000 (cash of course), it should come as no surprise it gets top Overbid honors. How do you price the ultimate fixer? You price it low, and let it go. Whether it comes with a kitchen and bath, or not, is up for debate. Looks like neighbor building is next.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
18 Prospect Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 11 $829,000 $1,250,000 50.78%
185 Stonecrest Drive 3/2.00/N/A 13 $998,000 $1,388,000 39.08%
1771 39th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 27 $849,000 $1,170,000 37.81%
627 46th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 13 $799,000 $1,061,000 32.79%
1355 Holloway Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 14 $988,888 $1,308,500 32.32%
4130 21st Street 2/1.50/N/A 12 $1,298,000 $1,710,000 31.74%
2750 Harrison 3/2.00/top 8 $1,050,000 $1,380,000 31.43%
2829 California Street 2/2.00/4C 15 $1,899,000 $2,455,000 29.28%
336 Jules Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 16 $798,000 $1,030,000 29.07%
320 Alabama Street 2/2.00/15 11 $1,048,000 $1,350,000 28.82%

It’s important to note, these properties had largely gone into contract a few weeks (or more) ago…there is potentially a shift in the tide happening at the moment. We are seeing more properties set offer dates and not receive any. Price reductions are starting to happen, and the behind the scenes pleading from my colleagues to “bring your buyers, motivated sellers” are increasing. Could we have reached the peak? Time will tell. For now, there are still far too many buyers for the limited amount of property available, so any change ain’t happening overnight, but it might be happening.

Stay tuned…

San Francisco New Listings, Recent Sales, Overbids, Underbids and more [theGoods]

Top 10 Overbids Of The Week, And One Mind Bender On Church That Wouldn’t Even Make The List

[Update: Most recent Overbids can be found here, and delivered to you biweekly via email at]

Before we get down to the top 10, I thought you all might like a bit of first hand story to ponder over lunch or dinner with your friends.

This property: 1850 Church, technically in Glen Park, practically in Noe Valley.
It is a top floor, three bedroom, two bath, down to the studs remodel including moving the bedrooms from the back of the house to the front, moving kitchen to the back, blowing out walls, opening up space, adding a deck, and basically making it awesome…and it has two car parking and a yard. For all practical purposes, it’s pretty sweet. It is however bordered by a shack on the right and left of the property, which can either lend to its appeal or detract, depending on your tolerance for jungle overgrowth. But enough about that. What happened?

Listed for $1,195,000, maybe a bit low, but probably pretty fair, all reasonable comps suggested a sales price in the high $1.2s to mid $1.3s. Single family homes are selling for that, and this is a condo! After all the dust settled, there were seven offers. My clients wrote at $1,350,000, my colleague’s clients wrote at $1,410,000 (You doing the math? That’s already $215,000 over asking.), and neither of us won. Go figure. So any day this property is going to close at $1,435,000 with a cash offer that came with zero contingencies, which equates to $240,000 over the asking price, and right into the range of insanity. Exact square footage is not known, but a ballpark would put this property to at least $1000/psf, and at 20% over asking, it doesn’t even get on the top 10 list!

Isolated incident? Sadly no. The pattern is the same. Buyer loses once. Buyer loses twice. Buyer loses three times or more. Buyer gets fed up, goes crazy big, blows our minds, blows everyone else out of the water, and sets the bar that much higher for the next. It’s a vicious cycle we’re in.

In case one anecdotal sale isn’t enough for you, I present San Francisco’s top 10 Overbids of the week.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2820 Sacramento St 2822 2-4 Units 11 $1,825,000 $2,550,000 39.73%
360 Guerrero St 1/1.00/404 11 $599,000 $780,000 30.22%
1013 Rhode Island St 2/2.00/N/A 9 $1,099,000 $1,410,000 28.30%
125 Bella Vista Way 3/2.00/N/A 42 $749,000 $960,000 28.17%
664 Teresita Blvd 2/1.00/N/A 9 $699,000 $891,000 27.47%
26 Pleasant St 30 2-4 Units 75 $2,395,000 $3,020,000 26.10%
1335 31st Ave 2/2.00/N/A 14 $795,000 $1,000,000 25.79%
415 Missouri St 3/1.00/ 19 $995,000 $1,250,000 25.63%
3380 22nd St 3/1.00/ 70 $849,000 $1,060,000 24.85%
2446 17th Ave 3/2.00/N/A 15 $729,000 $908,000 24.55%

So when will this madness end? I’m guessing not anytime soon. I’ve been saying it’s a great time to be a seller, but if you’re a seller needing to buy in San Francisco and stay here, not so fun.

To you out of town readers that have waited for your time to unload your SF property, are you going to keep rolling the dice and bet things get hotter, or get out while the gettin’s good?

1850 Church [Property Detail]
Noe Valley, Glen Park comps for 1850 Church [MLS]
Overbids you may have missed [theFrontSteps]

Heat Map Of San Francisco Median Home Price Changes Since Previous ’06-’08 Market Peak

Who doesn’t love a good heat map? Especially us San Francisco residents caught in the grip of one brutally long fog song…
[Click image to enlarge.]

This heat map compares 2013 2nd quarter or 1st half median home sales prices – for houses, condos, co-ops and TICs combined – with those at the peak value time prior to the recent market recovery. Previous peak value times vary by neighborhood: typically, the least affluent neighborhoods hit peak prices in 2006 and also fell the most, percentage-wise, during the crash, falling 25% to 50%. These neighborhoods were most affected by the subprime and distressed-property sales crises. The mid-affluent neighborhoods peaked in 2007, and usually declined in value in the 20% to 25% range. And the most affluent areas reached peak values last, in the first half of 2008 prior to the September 2008 crash: Their fall in value ranged approximately 15% to 20% from 2008 peak to 2010-2011 nadir.

Generally speaking, when the market began to turn around in late 2011/early 2012, the last neighborhoods to fall were the first to recover, followed by the mid-affluent and then the less affluent areas.

San Francisco Months Supply Of Inventory At Record Low

San Francisco Single Family Homes, Condominiums, Tenancies In Common, and 2-4 Unit property Inventory has simply dried up…
…and the future is not looking good, which means this number could go even lower, especially given the number of buyers still in the market ready to pounce on every decent, and fairly priced property that hits the radar screen.