luminapool

Lumina Sales Center Says Thanks

lumina

It’s not everyday a development runs an ad thanking those that have helped make it a success, but Lumina just did. I’m proud to be one of the many agents bringing buyers through the door, and making it a resounding success.

The LUMINA Sales Team & Tishman Speyer would like to extend their sincerest gratitude to those of you who have helped bring the vision of LUMINA to life.

Lumina San Francisco
Thanks Lumina sales center, it’s a pleasure working with you guys. Here’s to 2016 getting more people to recognize the sheer awesomeness of what you’re creating.

Contact me to get into Lumina today.

682 Duncan

Maximum Overbids Of the Week | $625,000 Over In Noe Valley | 291 Square Foot Studio Sells For $415,000

And the winner is…682 Duncan for a mere $625,000 over asking, and just shy of $1600 per square foot:
682 Duncan

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
682 Duncan Street 3/2.00/N/A 12 $1,050,000 $1,675,000 59.52%
430 Nevada Street 2/1.00/N/A 27 $699,000 $1,065,000 52.36%
1520 15th Street 2/1.00/N/A 22 $799,000 $1,175,000 47.06%
2219 25th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 13 $949,000 $1,380,000 45.42%
850 35th Avenue 2/1.50/N/A 38 $950,000 $1,380,000 45.26%
1994 45th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 28 $799,000 $1,130,000 41.43%
195 7th Street 0/1.00/306 38 $299,000 $415,000 38.80%
1257 Union Street 2/1.00/ 12 $1,195,000 $1,650,000 38.08%
1269 27th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 19 $1,108,000 $1,510,000 36.28%
136 Bradford Street 4/2.00/N/A 43 $899,000 $1,225,000 36.26%

Did you notice that little (291 square feet) sale for $415,000 at 195 7th Street?

As many of you know, I’ve been doing this Maximum Overbid feature for about 12 years running, maybe more. It started on sfnewsletter…it actually started sfnewsletter. Then I started posting the Maximum Overbids here, sometimes regularly, sometimes not. As much as these stats are great information, and surely get you scratching your head, they are not an indication of the market as a whole, and I know that very well. That is why I share not only the top 20 Overbids, but also Underbids, as well as properties still on the market more than 30 days. I share new listings of the past two weeks, as well as recent sales…not just overbids. I share this awesome information via The Goods. And in case you haven’t noticed, I share a sh*t ton of other data too.

I do all of this so you, the buyer, the seller, the renter, the owner, the neighbor, the landlord, the whatever you are, can educate yourself on properties and activity in your area. I’ve always felt it is important for you to know as much, or more than me about the market. If you appreciate this information, I encourage you to contact me when you, or anyone you know, are ready to buy or sell real estate. I encourage you to sign up for sfnewsletter, and I encourage you to follow this blog via email (opt-in form is below).

I am an expert at marketing property to get top dollar, and an expert at getting offers accepted for buyers, and I’d love to work with you. I’m no good at juggling and basketball, so don’t ask me to help you with that.

Have a great weekend!

Alex Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group
alexclark@gmail.com
415-254-5351

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San Francisco Real Estate Market Mid-Year Report

Home Price Appreciation Rates; Prices, Cost & Affordability;
Dollar per Square Foot; Interest Rates; Sales Price to List Price Ratio

Bay Area Appreciation Rates since 2011
Combined House & Condo Median Sales Prices

BayArea-Median-Price-Increases_2011-2015YTD_by-County

Besides the general economic recovery, there are other factors in different counties affecting home price increases over the past 4 years: 1) the huge decline in distressed property sales in those counties severely affected during the downturn (such as Solano, Contra Costa & Alameda), 2) the dramatic surge in luxury home sales (such as in SF, San Mateo & Marin), 3) increasing luxury condo construction (SF), and 4) the effect of the high-tech boom in employment and wealth, which radiates out from San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

The higher priced counties, led by San Francisco and San Mateo, saw the largest dollar increases in median prices since 2011 – $400,000 to $500,000 – but counties rebounding from the distressed property crisis often experienced the biggest percentage jumps. The city of Oakland, benefiting from both the decline in distressed sales and being the closest, most affordable option to high San Francisco housing prices saw by far the largest percentage increase: 133%.

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San Francisco Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood

Note that median prices within the city are also affected by a variety of factors beyond simple increases in fair market value.

SF House Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

We’re almost positive that we recommended that everyone buy at least one median-priced Pacific Heights mansion in 2011 at the bargain-basement price of $3,225,000. If you had followed this (imaginary) advice, your home would have appreciated by $2.77 million. However, on a pure return on investment basis, you would have done better to snap up a few median-priced houses in the Mission, which appreciated by an incredible 143%. It should be noted that both of these neighborhoods have comparatively few house sales as compared to, say, the Sunset or Bernal Heights. Low supply is often one factor in high appreciation rates.

SF Condo Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

For condos, Russian Hill led the way in dollar median price appreciation and Yerba Buena was tops in percentage price increase since the bottom of the market in 2011.

Over the past 4 years, houses have appreciated a bit more than condos in the city, 81% to 73%, and that is probably due to the fact that houses are becoming the scarcer commodity: While thousands of new condos are now being built each year, new house construction can usually be counted on 2 or 3 hands.

For prevailing SF median house and condo prices, our interactive map of neighborhood values can be found here:SF Neighborhood Home-Price Map

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Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
by San Francisco Neighborhood

7-15_House_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

7-15_Condo_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

Increasing average dollar per square foot values have been breaking records in neighborhoods throughout San Francisco for the last 2 years. Some of the surge in condo values is explained by the many recently built luxury condo projects – which have been selling at premium dollar per square foot prices – that have been sprouting up around the city.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Q2-2015_SF-Luxury-Home-Sales_by_Qtr

Sales of higher-end houses and condos have been soaring in the city and hit by far their highest number ever in the second quarter. Big jumps in expensive home sales are an important factor behind increases in the overall median sales price.

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Appreciation, Cost & Affordability

Short-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 2012)

Median_SFD-Condo_by-Qtr_Short-term

Long-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 1993)

Median-Price_Sep-SF-SFD-Cndo_1993-Present_V2

Inflation & Interested Rate-Adjusted Housing Cost (since 1993)

1993-Present_SF-PITI-Cost_Inflation-Adjusted

The short-term and long-term appreciation charts above are self-explanatory. The Home Cost Trends chart reflects a very approximate calculation of monthly home payment costs (principal, interest, property tax and insurance) adjusted for inflation – i.e. in 1993 dollars – using annual median house sales prices, average annual 30-year interest rates, and assuming a 20% downpayment. The average annual compounding CPI inflation rate fluctuated, but averaged approximately 2.4% over the period, and average annual mortgage rates fluctuated from 8.4% to 3.7% (see chart further below), which had a huge impact on financing costs.

Adjusting for inflation and interest rate changes means that though the median sales price is now far above that of 2007, the monthly housing cost is still a little bit below then. This isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison because it doesn’t take into account that the amount of the 20% downpayment increased significantly over the time period. Still, since ongoing cost is typically an important factor for homebuyers (at least those getting financing), this affords another angle on our market.

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Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

1993-Present_30-Year_Interest-Rates_Comp

Over the last 4 years, the big decline in interest rates has largely subsidized the increase in home prices.

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Price Reductions, Sales Prices to List Prices,
and Days on Market

Q2-15_SP-OP_DOM_by-Price-Reduction

In the 2nd quarter, the vast majority of SF home sales sold without prior price reductions; these sold very quickly, at an astounding average of 14.5% over the original list price – clear indications of a white-hot market. For the past 4 years, spring has been by far the most frenzied selling season of the year, and the market usually cools in summer.

There you have it.

Recent Transactions [Alexander Clark]

Modern SOMA Condo

SOLD | 142 Russ #2 | SOMA | $1,125,000

russI’m happy to report another successful battle won. Thank you to the listing agent and sellers for entertaining, and accepting my clients pre-emptive offer. What a great 2-bed/2-bath home at 142 Russ #2 in San Francisco’s SOMA. Listed at $1,049,000, we closed at less than 8% over asking, at $1,125,000. The home is perfect for my client now and in the future, and he “got in” before it gets nuts.

Congratulations to everyone involved!

142 Russ #2, San Francisco Property Details [theGoods-sf.com]

Lumina San Francisco | A Virtual Tour

Continuing to keep you updated on all things Lumina…

As is always the case, if you, or anyone you know, would like assistance securing a unit in this amazing development, or have any questions regarding this building, or San Francisco please contact me:
Alex Clark
415-254-5351
alexclark@gmail.com

More information about Lumina [theFrontSteps]

luminapool

Lumina SF | 200 Offers On First 52 Units Released | Second Release Happening Now

luminaview1

Continuing to bring you all the updates on one of San Francisco’s most hyped and happening new developments, Lumina SF, I wanted to quickly follow up on the last post I did with updated pricing on the first release of units. For full details about the Lumina SF development, including amenities and finishes, check out my original post.

So how did that first release go? Was it as insane as everyone expected? I’d say yes. From a reliable source:

Lumina received about 200 offers for the 52 released units. A few were accepted and most were asked to come back with “highest and best.” Additional units were released to absorb more of the interest, resulting in approximately 80 sales. The next release MIGHT BE first come, first serve but buyers that have not prevailed will be given priority, if possible. The next release will not be for a week or more as they are swamped, getting this group of contracts written.

That’s old news. Second release is happening now, and I’d be happy to help you secure a unit in this amazing luxury building.

Alex Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group
415-254-5351
alexclark@gmail.com

Lumina SF: Pricing, Square Footage, and Timing of Sales – An Update [theFrontSteps]
Lumina – Luxury High Rise Living In Downtown San Francisco [theFrontSteps]

Go Giants!

San Francisco Real Estate Third Quarter Report

San Francisco House & Condo Values
Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales?
Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why?

September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until most close escrow in October and early November. In the meantime, we’ll look at the last 2 quarters.

Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The following 2 charts look at current and longer-term trends in home values. As is common, median house sales prices dropped a bit in the 3rd quarter – this is due mostly to seasonality issues – though condos have held steady for 3 quarters now at $950,000. Dollar per square foot values have continued to increase to new peaks: This metric is particularly being impacted by new-development condo sales, which are breaking dollar per square foot records virtually everyplace they’re being built.

If you wish to drill down on values in very specific city neighborhoods, we recently updated our interactive map, which can be found here: SF Home Price Map

oct1
oct1

Where Home Sales Occur at What Prices

LUMINA SF :定价,面积和销售新信息

luminaview1
No…I have not been hacked. My assistant is fluent in Chinese, so we wanted to give you overseas readers something to consider. We’re here to help.

我最近收到关于Lumina豪宅的定价,面积和销售情况 (详细英文版):

定价如下(第1阶段) :
Studios :约 650平方英尺,695000 至 825000美元
1房 :约 850 至 870平方英尺(高塔)及约 880 至 1100平方英尺(广场) ,865000 至 1150000美元,
1房 + 书房:865000 至 1160000美元
2房 :约1170 至 1570平方英尺(高塔)及约1400 至1500平方英尺(广场) ,1225000 至 2295000美元
3房 :约1790 至 2670平方英尺,2350000 至 5350000美元

接受报价至到10月3日(星期五) 。目前只有两座大楼,里面只有52个单位提供出售。预计在第二阶段释放更多单位,定价会更新。

本新闻稿中提供的单位都在广场A座4楼,和D座7, 12, 18, 23, 30楼。预计2015年后期和2016年入住。