luminapool

Lumina Sales Center Says Thanks

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It’s not everyday a development runs an ad thanking those that have helped make it a success, but Lumina just did. I’m proud to be one of the many agents bringing buyers through the door, and making it a resounding success.

The LUMINA Sales Team & Tishman Speyer would like to extend their sincerest gratitude to those of you who have helped bring the vision of LUMINA to life.

Lumina San Francisco
Thanks Lumina sales center, it’s a pleasure working with you guys. Here’s to 2016 getting more people to recognize the sheer awesomeness of what you’re creating.

Contact me to get into Lumina today.

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San Francisco New-Home Construction Report

The SF Planning Department just released updated Q3 information regarding the new-housing development pipeline. San Francisco is in the midst of one of its biggest new-housing construction booms in history. (The same is occurring on the commercial development side, but this report won’t deal with that.) Indeed, it often seems that new projects of one kind or another are being announced on an almost daily basis, and a detailed map delineating all projects in some stage of the pipeline makes many city districts appear to have measles.

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New housing construction has lagged population pressures for decades – pressures which have soared during the current economic and employment boom – and now there is a scramble to address the inadequacy of housing supply, and, for developers/investors, to reap the rewards of a high demand/low supply dynamic in one of the most affluent and expensive housing markets in the world.

Currently, there are approximately 59,000 housing units of all kinds – luxury condos, rental apartments, market rate and affordable units, and social project housing – in the relatively near-term pipeline (next 5 to 6 years). Most are in the Market Street corridor area, the Van Ness corridor just above Market Street, and in the higher-density housing districts to the southeast of Market Street (see map). If we add the mega-projects planned for Candlestick-Hunter’s Point, Treasure Island and Park Merced, which may take decades to become a reality, the number jumps to over 80,000. As a point of context, there are approximately 382,000 residential units in San Francisco currently. About 3500 new units were added in 2014.

Housing supply and affordability issues, strong feelings regarding neighborhood gentrification and tenants’ rights, and even simple NIMBYism (or in SF, NBMVism, “not blocking my view!”) make development the most contentious political issue in San Francisco. Furious battles are ongoing in the Board of Supervisors, the Mayor’s office and the Planning Department; with neighborhood associations and special interest groups; and at the ballot box. Development is not for the faint of heart or shallow of pocket: One cannot contemplate building virtually anything in the city without vehement opposition and sometimes a well-funded coalition in opposition. For developers, the equation to be penciled out includes high costs, enormous hassle-factor and extended project timelines on one side, and the potential for large financial returns on the other. In new San Francisco developments, condos often sell for $1250 per square foot and above, and 500 square foot studio apartments can rent for up to $3500 per month.

Of the units in the greater pipeline of 80,000 units, over 9000 units are designated as “affordable housing” – but about 5000 of those are in the long-term Candlestick-Hunter’s Point and Treasure Island projects. Because of the nature of the political environment, much to do with how much affordable housing will be built is in flux. Many developers are in intense negotiations with government agencies and neighborhood associations to find a workable compromise between return on investment on one hand, and unit mix and affordable housing requirements on the other. Said requirements may consist of a percentage of units in the project, building affordable units elsewhere in the city, or contributing substantial amounts to the city’s affordable housing fund in lieu of building.

New housing construction is very sensitive to major economic, political and even environmental changes (i.e. natural disasters), so simply because something is in the pipeline doesn’t mean it will be completed as planned within the timeframe contemplated. First of all, plans are constantly being changed in the normal course of things. And if a big financial or real estate market correction (or crash) occurs, as happened in late 2008, projects in process can come to a grinding halt, and new projects substantially altered, delayed or abandoned. Because the timeline in San Francisco can run 3 to 6+ years, from initial filing with Planning to construction completion, developers and their financiers make enormous financial bets on what the future will look like. Timing is everything in real estate development, and can make the difference between exceedingly large profits and bankruptcy. When the music stops – which it always does sooner or later, though the time range of opportunity can vary greatly – not everyone will find a chair to sit down in. That especially applies to those who over-leveraged their projects.

As a side note, big Chinese developers have been investing in both large residential and commercial real estate development projects in the Bay Area, and, according to reports, continue to aggressively seek additional opportunities. Though significant – constituting billions of dollars in investment – these projects do not constitute the greater part of Bay Area development.

The Planning Department’s pipeline-report webpage is here: http://sf-planning.org/index.aspx?page=1691

And if it keeps snowing, you will find me here.

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Mission To Millennium | SF’s Top 10 Underbids of the Week

The top underbid of the week goes to an Outer Mission single family home that (dare we say) needs a bit of work. Listed for $699,000 and sold for $575,000 after 62 days on the market. According to our data from last week, single family homes continue to take up the majority of the top 10 underbid slots: 50% single family homes, 30% multi-units, and 20% condo.

As we get into the winter months, we are seeing luxury homes cooling down but affordable homes remaining competitive. One other notable Underbid is this wonderful Millennium Tower residence with million dollar water and landmark views on both sides of the Bay. Listed at $4.588M and sold for $4.18M after 122 days. Still a win, IMO.

As for the rest, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2220 Cayuga Avenue 1/1/1 $699,000 $575,000 -17.74 %
161-165 Cook Street 2-4 Units $2,395,000 $2,150,000 -10.23 %
2287 16th Avenue 4/2/2 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 -9.94 %
18 Kronquist Court 4/2/1 $1,899,000 $1,725,000 -9.16 %
301 Mission Street #49D 2/3/2 $4,588,000 $4,180,000 -8.89 %
78 Gladys Street 3/2/0 $1,195,000 $1,100,000 -7.95 %
1437 47th Avenue 1437A 2-4 Units $1,275,000 $1,175,000 -7.84 %
2829 Pierce Street 2831 2-4 Units $2,970,000 $2,750,000 -7.41 %
3260 Baker Street 3/2/2 $2,999,000 $2,800,000 -6.64 %
2040 Franklin Street #506 0/1/1 $575,000 $540,000 -6.09 %

As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market, your home, homes in your area, or real estate referrals around the world, I am here to help. Just give me a shout by choosing any of the “contact” options all over this site.

88 King St

SOLD: 88 King St., South Beach, San Francisco

Working for sellers and working for buyers…that’s what I do.

I have a great client that I showed all kinds of different properties to in all parts of the city. Turns out, he really liked South Beach and all it has to offer (proximity to water, Giants games, restaurants, vibrancy, downtown, etc.), but we just couldn’t find the right unit in the dream building (88 King St)…so I did a little digging (Some call it “bird-doggin'”) and we SCORED!

He just closed on a big 2+ bed, 2 bath, corner unit in this awesome property that has arguably the best outdoor pool and common area in the city, and we did it all off market. No competition, no stressful overbids, just a buyer and seller agreeing on ideal price and terms (lots of terms actually) and that was that.

Congratulations amigo! I’m looking forward to hanging on your balcony when the Giants get back into the swing of things (all puns intended).

Recent Transactions [theFrontSteps]
South Beach, San Francisco [theFrontSteps]
Alexander Clark as listing agent [theFrontSteps]
Buyers…this is for you [theFrontSteps]

Feb 2015 SF New Condominium Prices Up 19% YOY

FEBRUARY 2015 SAN FRANCISCO NEW CONDOMINIUM PRICES RISE 4 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS MONTH, UP 19 PERCENT OVER A YEAR AGO

San Francisco – March 10, 2015 – San Francisco new condominium prices rose 4 percent in February 2015 from the previous month, according to the Condominium Pricing Index just released by The Mark Company, a leading urban residential marketing and sales firm. Scroll to the bottom to see the trend sheet.

The Mark Company Condominium Pricing Index for February was $1,221 per square foot, which is 19 percent higher than the previous year and four percent higher than the previous month. Tied with October 2014, this four percent increase is the highest monthly increase since April 2014.

New construction inventory was down 7 percent from last month, but 1,715 percent higher than a year ago. “Despite the addition of more than 1,600 units in 2014, there are now a total of 708 new condominium units available for sale in San Francisco,” said Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company.

The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet, represents the price per square foot of a new 10th floor, 1,000-square-foot condominium. It is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.

The Mark Company Penthouse Pricing Index, which applies the same methodology to a new 30th floor, 2,000-square-foot condominium, was $2,097 per square foot in February, up 4 percent from the previous month and 19 percent higher year over year.

The average price per square foot for resale condominiums, which is more volatile than the Condominium Pricing Index, was down 6 percent month over month, and is 3 percent higher than a year ago, according to The Mark Company.

Resale inventory remains extremely low. “There are now only 81 active resale listings, representing only 1.4 months of inventory at the current pace of sales,” noted Kennelly. Six months of inventory is considered the equilibrium between a buyer’s and a seller’s market.
The Mark Company has also released the February Downtown Los Angeles Trend Sheet and Pricing Index, as well as the Downtown Seattle Trend Sheet and Pricing Index.

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New Year, New Beginning?

theGoods_sfHappy New Year!

I hope everyone had a great holiday and New Year’s celebration. Let’s kick off the 2015 blogging with some Stats & Numbers via sfnewsletter, which focuses on the past three years of real estate market activity, as well as a look way back to the 1980’s (were you born yet?), and some random facts about where we San Franciscans spend our money: Reset, Recovery & Randomness – sfnewsletter 1/9/15

As always, it’s chock full of interesting tid bits and random data, as well as a new link to San Francisco’s Most Recent Sales, New Listings, Overbids, Underbids, and Stalefish (Still Available property).

Lumina San Francisco | A Virtual Tour

Continuing to keep you updated on all things Lumina…

As is always the case, if you, or anyone you know, would like assistance securing a unit in this amazing development, or have any questions regarding this building, or San Francisco please contact me:
Alex Clark
415-254-5351
alexclark@gmail.com

More information about Lumina [theFrontSteps]

luminapool

Lumina SF | 200 Offers On First 52 Units Released | Second Release Happening Now

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Continuing to bring you all the updates on one of San Francisco’s most hyped and happening new developments, Lumina SF, I wanted to quickly follow up on the last post I did with updated pricing on the first release of units. For full details about the Lumina SF development, including amenities and finishes, check out my original post.

So how did that first release go? Was it as insane as everyone expected? I’d say yes. From a reliable source:

Lumina received about 200 offers for the 52 released units. A few were accepted and most were asked to come back with “highest and best.” Additional units were released to absorb more of the interest, resulting in approximately 80 sales. The next release MIGHT BE first come, first serve but buyers that have not prevailed will be given priority, if possible. The next release will not be for a week or more as they are swamped, getting this group of contracts written.

That’s old news. Second release is happening now, and I’d be happy to help you secure a unit in this amazing luxury building.

Alex Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group
415-254-5351
alexclark@gmail.com

Lumina SF: Pricing, Square Footage, and Timing of Sales – An Update [theFrontSteps]
Lumina – Luxury High Rise Living In Downtown San Francisco [theFrontSteps]

Go Giants!

San Francisco Real Estate Third Quarter Report

San Francisco House & Condo Values
Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales?
Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why?

September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until most close escrow in October and early November. In the meantime, we’ll look at the last 2 quarters.

Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The following 2 charts look at current and longer-term trends in home values. As is common, median house sales prices dropped a bit in the 3rd quarter – this is due mostly to seasonality issues – though condos have held steady for 3 quarters now at $950,000. Dollar per square foot values have continued to increase to new peaks: This metric is particularly being impacted by new-development condo sales, which are breaking dollar per square foot records virtually everyplace they’re being built.

If you wish to drill down on values in very specific city neighborhoods, we recently updated our interactive map, which can be found here: SF Home Price Map

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Where Home Sales Occur at What Prices