One chart that says it all:
It’s painful if you’re a buyer. It’s awesome to be a seller, especially a seller cashing in and getting out of Dodge.
San Francisco New-Housing Construction Trends
Within its 47 square mile envelope, San Francisco is already
the 2nd most densely populated city in the United States,
and it’s growing denser, more affluent and more expensive.
May 2014 report with 13 custom charts
The following charts are mostly based on the San Francisco Planning Department’s excellent Housing Inventory and Pipeline reports, which can be accessed using the links at the bottom of this article. Quotes below are excerpted from these reports.
Packed with information, the data in one report section will not always agree perfectly with that in another – due to the multiple sources of data used by the Planning Department – and this is reflected in our charts as well. In the complex, lengthy process of application and review, public hearings (and, lately, ballot proposals), revisions, entitlement, permitting, construction and completion, how and when a project is counted may vary. Housing units are being built and being removed, and there are so many types: rental or sale, market rate or affordable, social-project housing or luxury condominiums.
Last but not least, this landscape is in constant flux: new projects, plan changes, and shifts in economic and political realities. Everything below is simply a good faith estimate. The basic reality is that San Francisco, after its recent 2008-2012 new-construction slump, is now experiencing a building boom. So far, however, it has not been able to keep up with population growth and rising buyer/renter demand.
New construction authorized typically will not show up as housing units completed until later years. And, of course, a developer can decide not to build after authorization if market circumstances change. The post-2008 drop in authorizations is clearly illustrated here.
“Some of the larger projects completed in 2013 include: 1190 Mission Street (355 market-rate units and 63 affordable units), Rincon Green (277 market rate units and 49 affordable units), Nema (279 market rate units and 38 affordable units).”
“Very large projects (200 units or more) filed in 2013 and are under Planning Department review include: Mission Rock (1,500 units); 150 Van Ness Avenue (429 units); 41 Tehama Street (398 units); 1066 Market (330 units); 950 Market Street (316 units); and 1301 16th Street (276 units).”
A glance at the recent past, the present and the possible future of new housing construction in the city. New projects are continually entering and moving through the pipeline, and existing plans may be changed or even abandoned.
“There are currently 857 projects in the pipeline. Of these, 74 percent are exclusively residential and 17 percent are mixed-use projects with both residential and commercial components. Only 8 percent of projects are non-residential developments. A net total of 50,400 new housing units would be added to the city’s housing stock according to current data. Around 18 percent of all projects, representing 6,000 net added housing units and 2,750,000 sq. ft. of commercial space, are under construction. Around 20 percent of projects (with another 4,200 net units and 3.8 million sq. ft. of commercial space) have received building permit approvals. As of the time of writing, some may have moved to the construction phase.”
So why do so many people try to complicate the obvious? It’s really quite simple. But as further support of a market that is clearly en fuego, here are a variety of standard supply and demand analyses: Months Supply of Inventory, Units for Sale, New Listings Coming on Market, Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers, Average Days on Market.
They all indicate very strong demand against very low supply (inventory).
…and with that, we end a week’s worth of very pertinent and compelling data supporting the end of the dark days, the beginning of a new peak in San Francisco property values, and the impetus to get you off your tush and onto the market if you’ve even remotely been considering selling your San Francisco property.
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Data Source: Paragon Real Estate
Surely, every Realtor in the Bay Area is pumping this new article about the luxury home market in our area, so I guess I better do the same. It’s not like you haven’t heard it from me before, with all of my stories of multiple offers, all cash buyers, and the general state of our market. But what the hell. It’s more data, and I know you all love it.
I’m anxious to see how this fall selling season goes. There was such a flood of inventory these past couple of weeks, the buzz certainly seems to have mellowed a little and spread the buying field out. The next couple of weeks will be particularly interesting in regards to offer dates, and whether we will see the same numbers of offers on individual properties we had seen in the summer. I’ll keep you posted.
–“Red Hot” Bay Area Luxury Home Market Sees Biggest Jump Since 2006 [Business Times]
The latest and greatest sales data for San Francisco Real Estate:
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