San Francisco Bay Area Demographics
18 charted analyses of ancestry, affluence, education, real estate,
politics, poverty and employment for San Francisco, Marin, Napa,
Sonoma, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda & Contra Costa Counties.
4th Quarter 2014, Paragon Special Report
These charts are mostly based on U.S. Census surveys from 2010 to 2013. Each of the 8 counties examined contains areas of widely varying demographics, and the multiple reports analyzed (6+ for each county) contain counts and estimates made at different times. Though these statistics are broad overviews, we still found many fascinating insights – and hope you will as well.
Ancestry, Race & Age
For the most part, the ancestry and race categories used below
are as designated in the U.S. Census reports.
Ancestry: This first chart is a collated overview of the 8 counties. The Bay Area is one of the most multi-cultural places on earth, but (not broken out on this chart) this diversity is not evenly spread: Different ethnic and national groups often cluster in specific counties. For example, San Francisco has the largest populations with Chinese or Russian ancestry; Santa Clara has, by far, the greatest number of residents from India, Vietnam or Mexico; Alameda leads in those of Portuguese or Pacific Island heritage. For breakdowns by county, U.S. Census reports can be accessed here.
Race: Marin County has by far the largest percentage white (non-Hispanic) population at 73%, followed by Sonoma and Napa. San Francisco has the largest Asian percentage at 34.4%, with Santa Clara just behind at 34.1%. Santa Clara is the only county where white isn’t the largest group – Asian is bigger by a tiny margin. Napa has the largest Hispanic percentage at 33%, with 5 other counties between 23% and 27%. Alameda has the most substantial percentage black population at 12%.
Foreign-Born: The foreign-born population in the Bay Area is large (behind only New York, Miami, LA and Chicago) with again, different groups predominating in different counties. About 50% of our foreign-born residents have acquired U.S. citizenship.
The August Case-Shiller Index report released today showed a small home price decline for the 5 counties of the SF Metro Area. Autumn’s numbers will give us a clearer indication as to whether this is the beginning of a flattening or declining price trend or simply the not untypical indication of a Summer adjustment from the Spring frenzy.
San Francisco House & Condo Values
Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales?
Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why?
September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until most close escrow in October and early November. In the meantime, we’ll look at the last 2 quarters.
Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The following 2 charts look at current and longer-term trends in home values. As is common, median house sales prices dropped a bit in the 3rd quarter – this is due mostly to seasonality issues – though condos have held steady for 3 quarters now at $950,000. Dollar per square foot values have continued to increase to new peaks: This metric is particularly being impacted by new-development condo sales, which are breaking dollar per square foot records virtually everyplace they’re being built.
If you wish to drill down on values in very specific city neighborhoods, we recently updated our interactive map, which can be found here: SF Home Price Map
Where Home Sales Occur at What Prices
You’re all probably wondering where the hell I went. I’m here. Representing buyers and sellers in this frenzied market. This market that is full of crazy overbids, properties getting many multiples of offers, and at the same time properties that are now sitting in the dead pool. I call these “Stalefish” a.k.a. 30+ Club, and you can see some of them here.
But it’s Overbids, the Top 10 to be specific, that you came to see, so here they are. Have a great weekend!
|3955 19th St
|1493 Newcomb Ave
|14 Ulloa St
|662 Elizabeth St
|369 Arguello Blvd 371
|131 Harold Ave
|3615 20th St
|525 27th Ave 527
|460 Andover St
|17 Valletta Ct 19
-Properties Still available [The Goods 30+ Club]
The Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area covers the house markets of 5 Bay Area counties, divided into 3 price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of San Francisco’s, Marin’s and San Mateo’s house sales are in the “high price tier”, so that is where we focus most of our attention. The Index is published 2 months after the month in question and reflects a 3-month rolling average, so it will always reflect the market of some months ago. June’s Index was just recently released.
The 5 counties in our Case-Shiller Metro Statistical Area are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa. Needless to say, there are many different real estate markets found in such a broad region, and it’s probably fair to say that the city of San Francisco’s market has generally out-performed the general metro area market.
Typically, the market cools off and plateaus for the summer months and that is what we are starting to see in the new Case-Shiller numbers for June. The next big indication of market conditions and trends will come after the autumn selling season begins in mid-September: That is typically when there is a large surge in new listings and buyer demand picks up again until the holiday slow-down begins in mid-November. It is difficult to make definitive statements about the market during the summer and mid-winter holidays because the market almost always slows substantially during these times.
The high-price home segment for the SF Metro area saw no significant change from May to June, though the low and mid-price segments both ticked up by a percentage point or two. Short-term fluctuations are much less meaningful than longer-term trends.
To learn more about Seasonality & The San Francisco Real Estate Market, check out my most recent issue of sfnewsletter by clicking that link.
As always, if you have any questions, you should know where to find me by now.
-Seasonality & The San Francisco Real Estate Market [sfnewsletter]