Category Archives: Stats & Numbers

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It’s Friday! Top 10 Overbids To Spark Your Cocktail Conversations Tonight

You’re all probably wondering where the hell I went. I’m here. Representing buyers and sellers in this frenzied market. This market that is full of crazy overbids, properties getting many multiples of offers, and at the same time properties that are now sitting in the dead pool. I call these “Stalefish” a.k.a. 30+ Club, and you can see some of them here.

But it’s Overbids, the Top 10 to be specific, that you came to see, so here they are. Have a great weekend!

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
3955 19th St 2/2.00/N/A 12 $1,195,000 $1,830,000 53.14%
1493 Newcomb Ave 2/1.00/N/A 3 $408,888 $623,700 52.54%
14 Ulloa St 2/1.00/N/A 25 $798,000 $1,125,000 40.98%
662 Elizabeth St 2/1.00/ 9 $799,000 $1,105,750 38.39%
369 Arguello Blvd 371 2-4 Units 29 $1,650,000 $2,250,000 36.36%
131 Harold Ave 2/1.00/N/A 16 $599,000 $805,000 34.39%
3615 20th St 2/2.00/6 13 $1,049,000 $1,400,000 33.46%
525 27th Ave 527 2-4 Units 21 $1,190,000 $1,580,000 32.77%
460 Andover St 4/2.50/N/A 10 $1,250,000 $1,650,000 32.00%
17 Valletta Ct 19 2-4 Units 36 $1,100,000 $1,450,000 31.82%

-Properties Still available [The Goods 30+ Club]

June Case-Shiller Index – High-Tier Home Prices Begin To Plateau For Summer

The Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area covers the house markets of 5 Bay Area counties, divided into 3 price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of San Francisco’s, Marin’s and San Mateo’s house sales are in the “high price tier”, so that is where we focus most of our attention. The Index is published 2 months after the month in question and reflects a 3-month rolling average, so it will always reflect the market of some months ago. June’s Index was just recently released.

The 5 counties in our Case-Shiller Metro Statistical Area are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa. Needless to say, there are many different real estate markets found in such a broad region, and it’s probably fair to say that the city of San Francisco’s market has generally out-performed the general metro area market.

Typically, the market cools off and plateaus for the summer months and that is what we are starting to see in the new Case-Shiller numbers for June. The next big indication of market conditions and trends will come after the autumn selling season begins in mid-September: That is typically when there is a large surge in new listings and buyer demand picks up again until the holiday slow-down begins in mid-November. It is difficult to make definitive statements about the market during the summer and mid-winter holidays because the market almost always slows substantially during these times.

The high-price home segment for the SF Metro area saw no significant change from May to June, though the low and mid-price segments both ticked up by a percentage point or two. Short-term fluctuations are much less meaningful than longer-term trends.

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To learn more about Seasonality & The San Francisco Real Estate Market, check out my most recent issue of sfnewsletter by clicking that link.

As always, if you have any questions, you should know where to find me by now.

-Seasonality & The San Francisco Real Estate Market [sfnewsletter]

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Update For The San Francisco Bay Area

The Case-Shiller Index report for May 2014 for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area was released the other day, showing another small bump in home prices from April to May. The aggregate or total index is now up approximately 55% since the market recovery began in early 2012. The 5 counties covered by the index are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa.

However, Case-Shiller also breaks out home price changes by price tier – low, middle and high – and each tier has experienced dramatically different trend lines since 2000. The low price tier – homes found mostly in Alameda and Contra Costa counties (though also other Bay Area counties not in the SF MSA, such as Solano, Sonoma and Napa) experienced a crazy bubble much larger than the other price tiers and subsequently experienced a much bigger crash due to foreclosures and short sales. The middle and high price tiers, which predominate in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo, experienced much smaller bubbles and crashes. This is dramatically illustrated in the first graph below.

In all the Case-Shiller Indices the numbers refer to a January 2000 home value of 100. Thus a reading of 195 signifies a value 95% above that of January 2000.

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All tiers have seen big recoveries since 2012 began, but only the high-price tier has now exceeded previous peak values attained in 2006-2007. Because of the absurd size of the low-price tier bubble, its home prices are still far below previous peak values and it’s probably unreasonable to expect them to be surpassed anytime soon.

However, all the price tiers show very similar overall appreciation rates since 2000, running from 93% to 97% over the 14 ½ years, which suggest an equilibrium is being achieved across the general market.

This chart below tracks home price appreciation for higher-priced homes since 2012. As with all statistics, monthly statistics are much less meaningful than longer term trends.

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San Francisco itself, whose median house price is now over $1.1 million, has performed significantly better than even the general high-price tier, as can be seen in the median price chart for the Noe & Eureka Valleys neighborhoods of the city.
This chart is just a sample of how some San Francisco neighborhoods – especially its most expensive ones – have far exceeded general Bay Area appreciation trends, as far as previous peak values are concerned. Many of San Mateo’s cities have experienced a similar dynamic, as they both share the dominant effect of the high-tech wealth effect on home prices.

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If you would like more information about these charts, or the San Francisco market in particular, give me a shout.

Noe Valley – Eureka Valley Homes Cross $1000 per sqft, Glen Park home sales up 12% YOY

Below you will find important statistics for the past decade and a half on the luxury markets in District 5. The price point has reached $1.5M for an average home in Glen Park and more than $2M to own a home in Noe Valley and Eureka Valley. Note that the 2014 data are year-to-date, between 1/1/2014 to 7/25/2014.

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