A Perfect Match, TeedHaze & The Goods…Where Are You?

theGoods_sfAs much as this blog is all about real estate, it’s also all about me (Alex) and what I do to not only help my clients, but also my colleagues. For many years I’ve been dabbling in little ventures here and there to help my colleagues do more deals, and give their clients valuable real estate information. The first company was sfnewsletter, which created and sent branded newsletters for Realtors to their clients.

Golden Gate Heights Fixer Sells $455,000 Under Asking, But Still $1.9M

Hey! We’re back. What a great vacation (in Hawaii), and great to see even when I’m surfing, you’re all still browsing. So, on with the show…

Monday was a travel day, so Tuesday is all about the Underbid, and this week a sweet little fixer with amazing carpeting, staging, painting, and lighting (Oh yeah, there is a view too) wins top honors by selling $455,000 BELOW asking (yes, it happens).


It’s a shocker, I know, and I know you can hardly believe your eyes to read that properties sell UNDER asking in San Francisco, but they do, especially when ridiculously over-priced like this one. Regardless, it’s still a fixer for $1.9M, so who are we to judge…

As for the rest, here you go.

Top 10 Underbids San Francisco

Address BR BA Parking List Price Sold Price Underbid
1879 Funston Avenue 4 3.50 2 $2,365,000 $1,910,000 -19.24 %
301 Mission Street 3 3.50 1 $3,999,000 $3,500,000 -12.48 %
41 Rico Way 4 4.00 1 $4,000,000 $3,650,000 -8.75 %
252 9th Street 1 1.00 0 $826,000 $767,000 -7.14 %
3468 17th Street 3 1.00 1 $1,599,000 $1,500,000 -6.19 %
1770 Quint Street 3 2.00 2 $910,000 $865,000 -4.95 %
655 Corbett Avenue 1 1.00 1 $730,000 $700,000 -4.11 %
132 Coleridge Street 134 N/A N/A 0 $2,155,000 $2,075,000 -3.71 %
3305 Broderick Street 3 3.50 1 $3,150,000 $3,050,000 -3.17 %
435 China Basin Street 2 2.00 1 $1,399,000 $1,355,000 -3.15 %

To get this list (and more), delivered to your inbox on an almost regular basis, you might want to sign up for my newsletter: sfnewsletter.com

New Construction Condo Prices Up, Resale Condo Prices Down

SAN FRANCISCO NEW CONSTRUCTION CONDOMINIUM PRICES DECLINED 1 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS MONTH, UP 2 PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. RESALES PRICES DECLINED 10% FROM PREVIOUS MONTH, DOWN 6 PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO.

Though San Francisco pricing dropped for the fifth consecutive month, contract absorption at new developments indicates that the 2016 selling season is well-underway. Closed sales during February and March are expected to reflect strong market conditions with high demand. Several new developments are expected to commence sales soon, positioned to take advantage of the traditionally robust spring months. According to The Mark Company Trend Sheet.

New condominiums inventory level remains low. There are approximately 655 new condominiums for sale in San Francisco. This includes 450 Hayes (11 units in contract and 25 units available) and LuXe in Pacific Heights (13 units in contract and 21 units available), both sales commenced during the fourth quarter of 2015.

Prices for resale condominiums continued to decline to an average of $889 per-square-foot, falling 10 percent compared to December 2015 ad 6% compared to one year ago. Despite the decrease, the number of resales is trending downward, falling 51% since last month, and 16% year-over-year.

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The Mark Company is a leading urban residential marketing and sales firm.

The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet (available at http://www.themarkcompany.com), is the tool for tracking the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.
The Condominium Pricing Index uses a proprietary quantitative method to model the price per square foot of a new 10th floor, 1,000 SF condominium.

From Overbids To Underbids, What’s Our Market Going To Do?

Remember this NOPA multi-unit that went from $1.6M to $822k? Check out this 50% ownership in a Cole Valley 4 unit Victorian that just sold for 13% under asking after being on market for 51 days. In case you didn’t get that…that’s a two unit purchase into a 4 unit building, which you will own in tandem with the person that previously owned the whole thing (yet another reason to own property in San Francisco…you can slice/dice and still get it sold!)

As for the rest of the top 10 Underbids, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
117-119 Downey Street 2-4 Units $1,350,000 $1,175,000 -13 %
16 Knott Court 3/3/2 $949,000 $832,500 -12 %
350 Lansdale Avenue 3/3/2 $1,595,000 $1,439,800 -10 %
252 9th Street #403 2/1/0 $859,000 $785,000 -9 %
77 Amber Drive 4/3.5/2 $1,999,000 $1,840,000 -8 %
964 Central Avenue 2-4 Units $1,845,000 $1,700,000 -8 %
2040 Fell #12 2/1/1 $935,000 $872,500 -7 %
643 Greenwich Street 5/4.5/3 $4,250,000 $4,000,000 -6 %
1816 Castro Street 2/1/2 $899,000 $850,000 -5 %
650 Turk Street 0/1/1 $549,000 $525,000 -4 %

As for the market…that’s anybody’s guess at this stage. My listings flew off the shelf (I will definitely take credit for that), while others languish. Super Bowl hype is finally over, listings are hitting the market, so now we get to see what will happen.

If the market shifts it will still be a tremendous time to sell your property, as well as finally a great time to buy. We are experts at helping you do both. Just give us a shout.

San Francisco Single Family Real Estate Appreciation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to houses, the next post is specific to condominiums appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new home construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.

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The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas, especially in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If this situation applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.

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As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market don’t hesitate to ask.

If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.

Underbids All Over The Map | San Francisco

Did you miss the Top 10 Overbids last week? Don’t worry, SFGate has em posted, but since it’s Monday (well it was yesterday), we like to bring you the weekly top 10 Underbids. Sounds like SFGate might recap them there too, so keep your eyes peeled.

The top dogs are a variety this time around. Locations are spread out – Western Addition, Bayview, Nob hill, Telegraph Hill, Marina, Pacific Heights, Inner Mission, Cow Hollow, and Noe Valley. Sizes range from a 232 square foot micro studio condo, which sold for $390,000 (don’t get too excited, that’s nearly $1700/sqft), to a 5590 square foot 5 bedroom mansion, which sold for only $1500/sqft (don’t get too excited here either, that’s $8.4M). There’s even a commercial unit in the mix, that fetched “only” $430/sqft (we ain’t talking apples to apples to the above.)

Just goes to show, in real estate, particularly in San Francisco it’s all about location, location, location…and pricing, marketing, presentation, and timing.

Regardless, have a great work week. Enjoy the top 10, stay dry, and pray for more rain/snow.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
1406 Golden Gate Avenue 3/2/0 $1,399,000 $1,200,000 -14.22 %
1311-1313 Palou 2-4 Units $995,000 $875,000 -12.06 %
1300 Pacific Avenue 0/2/0 $468,000 $425,000 -9.19 %
412 Green Street #A 0/1/0 $425,000 $390,000 -8.24 %
3315 Pierce Street 3/3.5/3 $2,699,000 $2,500,000 -7.37 %
2470 Broadway 5/4.5/2 $6,995,000 $6,500,000 -7.08 %
1326 Utah Street 2-4 Units $1,289,000 $1,200,000 -6.90 %
33 Perine Place 2/2/1 $1,500,000 $1,400,000 -6.67 %
2828 Divisadero Street 5/5.5/2 $8,995,000 $8,400,000 -6.61 %
425 28th Street 3/2/1 $1,695,000 $1,588,888 -6.26 %

theFrontSteps Overbids on SFGate [SF Gate, San Francisco Chronicle Online]

Maximum Overbid: Severely Damaged, No Electricity, Not Habitable, But Still Top Dog

You gotta love a market (as a seller) where an agent can use the most eloquent of beautifully descriptive words to sell such a wonderful property, in such immaculate condition and still easily (likely with stacks of offers) get a property sold.

From the marketing:

A complete TEAR-DOWN! Beyond the external frame, this home is severely damaged/charred/burned from a fire last May 2014. No electricity so access is limited to morning hours only. All potential buyers to sign a Hold Harmless Agreement prior to access. Probate sale, no court, no death in prop w/in last 3 years. NOT in habitable condition, this is more than a fixer, it’s a complete tear-down!

171 Bright
171 Bright

Listed for $299,000 (that had to be a record in and of itself), this wonderful Ingleside Heights Home just closed for $485,000.

Hey! Look on the bright side…nobody died in the property…at least “within the last 3 years”, and maybe, just maybe, the city will actually let you tear the whole thing down and start fresh.

As for the rest of the top 10 Overbids, here you go.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
171 Bright Street 0/1.00/N/A 16 $299,000 $485,000 62.21%
1139 Green Street 1139 2-4 Units 12 $1,299,800 $1,710,000 31.56%
1161 York Street 1163 2-4 Units 27 $1,200,000 $1,560,000 30.00%
1819 26th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 42 $775,000 $1,000,000 29.03%
39 Bradford Street 2/1.00/N/A 29 $998,000 $1,250,000 25.25%
1455 Oakdale 5/3.00/N/A 47 $759,000 $935,000 23.19%
721 Delano Avenue 1/1.00/N/A 28 $569,000 $700,000 23.02%
111 Harold Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 80 $599,000 $720,000 20.20%
526 34th Avenue 528 2-4 Units 41 $1,920,000 $2,240,000 16.67%
427 Parker Avenue 429 2-4 Units 58 $2,200,000 $2,550,000 15.91%

Happy Friday, and welcome to the new look of my new site. Still a bit of dust and debris laying around, but for the most part, we’re open for business.

Last Underbid of the year: Marina Home Wins

It’s the last Monday of 2015, everyone is out celebrating and the market is slow and quiet, but there are still properties closing every day, and some going significantly under asking.

The top 3 homes of the top 10 Underbid that closed in the last 2 weeks were sold more than 10% under asking (does that make any sense?) And the winner of our last underbid of the year goes to this wonderful 3 bedroom Marina District single-family home 59 Rico Way. Listed for $2,900,000 and sold for 2,550,000, 12% under asking.
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And here’s the rest. Happy holidays everyone!

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
59 Rico Way 3/1.5/3 $2,900,000 $2,550,000 -12.07 %
233 Franconia Street 3/3.5/3 $1,795,000 $1,590,000 -11.42 %
1945 Washington Street #411 1/1/1 $739,000 $665,000 -10.01 %
2953 Broderick Street 2/2.5/2 $3,295,000 $3,000,000 -8.95 %
1200 California 1/1/1 $2,188,000 $2,000,000 -8.59 %
338 Spear Street 2/2/1 $2,998,000 $2,750,000 -8.27 %
1177 California Street 1/1/1 $965,000 $900,000 -6.74 %
1598 McAllister Street 5+ Units $3,000,000 $2,800,000 -6.67 %
646 Los Palmos Drive 5/3/3 $1,450,000 $1,360,000 -6.21 %
1 Hawthorne Street #22E 2/2/1 $1,650,000 $1,550,000 -6.06 %

42.5% of SF Renters Are Cost – Burdened

Forty-two and one half percent of SF renters are cost-burdened, compared to 51.8% national average, study shows.

Apartment List recently analyzed Census data from 2007-2014, to see which cities and states have the most cost-burdened renters (those spending more than 30% of their income on rent). Nationwide, 52% of renters are cost-burdened, up from 24% in 1960 and 38% in 2000, but the numbers vary depending on city and state.

Here are some of the highlights from their report:

    1. The share of cost-burdened renters in San Francisco decreased from 42.7% in 2007 to 42.5% in 2014
    2. The share of cost-burdened renters in the US rose from 49.3% to a high of 53.4% in 2011 – an increase of 1.7 million renter households. It has fallen a bit since then, to 51.8% in 2014.
    3. Surprisingly, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, and Austin performed relatively well – incomes have largely increased in line with rent growth.
    4. Miami, Detroit, and Los Angeles were among the worst performers in our study, with more than 60% of cost-burdened renters.

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They have data for 50 states, 454 cities, and 922 counties across the United States, so feel free to reach out if there is specific data that you are interested in seeing.

The way I see it, if you plan on staying in San Francisco for a long time, figure out a way to buy, not rent.

$2,000,000 Under Asking In Pacific Heights…Actually $1,925,000 But Who’s Counting

If that $200,000 underbid from a few weeks ago seems like a good deal to you, have a look at this seven bedroom Pacific Heights Single Family home at 2660 Scott (you must click that link…the pictures are amazing), which was listed in September at $15,000,000 and closed last week at $13,075,000. Almost $2,000,000 under asking.
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Considering the home only last sold in 2004 for just shy of $6,000,000 I’d say the sellers are pretty thrilled (keeping in mind we don’t know how much they sunk into it, of course). IMHO the home was worth every penny of $15,000,000, so the buyers should be thrilled too. It’s a trophy home, and I’m totally jealous, as should be all of you.
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As for the rest of our weekly underbids. Here you go…the top 10 Underbids of the week.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2660 Scott Street 7/7/6 $15,000,000 $13,075,000 -12.83 %
814-816 Cole 2-4 Units $1,990,000 $1,775,000 -10.80 %
1374 Union Street 3/3.5/2 $3,350,000 $3,000,000 -10.45 %
184 London Street 3/1/0 $574,000 $520,000 -9.41 %
365 Magellan Avenue 5/3.5/2 $2,520,000 $2,350,000 -6.75 %
601 Van Ness Avenue 2/2/1 $879,000 $825,000 -6.14 %
595 Waller Street 3/2/0 $1,300,000 $1,225,000 -5.77 %
2445 Polk Street 2/2/1 $1,450,000 $1,371,150 -5.44 %
3515 Washington Street 2/2/2 $3,995,000 $3,800,000 -4.88 %
580 Prentiss Street 2/1/1 $998,000 $950,000 -4.81 %

As always, I share all of this wonderful data with you in real time on several sources:
1. The Goods
2. sfnewsletter (sign up at sfnewsletter.com)
3. theFrontSteps.com

Get this stuff bookmarked, sign up to receive via email, follow me on Facebook, Twitter @theFrontSteps, LinkedIn. Do what you gotta do to get yourself educated on our market.

And have a great day.

2660 Scott, Property Detail Page