Aldo Congi…Capo di Capi telling it like it is. Andrew, you kind of fumbled a bit, but we’ll let it slide. And who was that that walked out of the bathroom in the middle of your interview!? Gasp….
No way! It’s not happening. Really it’s not. The market has tanked. This report was from 2005. The Wall Street Journal just wasted their time. (sarcasm, sarcasm, sarcasm)
And on the other side of the equation, Shiller (think Case-Shiller) thinks it’s only going to get worse, like worse than the Great Depression worse. Let’s make sure we don’t invite that guy to our party!
–Home Sales Fall, but Signs of Stability Emerge [The Wall Street Journal]
Why the continued references to 2004 as the peak? More like 2005 and 2006. They got that pretty wrong.
Shiller lumps SF in with the East Bay so how could he possible understand the San Francisco market.
a lot of people don’t understand this market yet they continue to hypothesize, write, and report as to where its headed and how we’re going to get there. Shiller is not the only one that does this. there are certain local media outlets that do the same. lumping bay area and east bay in with reports about san francisco is not fair to the san francisco consumer. the clients i deal with continue to get outbid and we’re looking at property at all price levels, all neighborhoods. as i write this i’m looking to the right column and see the single family median price chart from altos research for sf is trending up.
Duh it always trends up in the spring. And if you click on the graph and look at the 7 day median, there’s a pretty sharp snap downwards.
It’s really, really, really hard to get true apples to apples comparisons in SF. For example, a nice remodel can hide a lot of price depreciation. And there’s no denying the nice places are still selling well.
I don’t know what you mean by “all neighborhoods” but as someone who is preapproved and looking hard right now I can tell you that in my experience there has indeed been some serious price swings downwards in at least some neighborhoods (if you are house hunting in the excelsior, like I am, you know this already: many houses are $100k off peak and still not moving.)
So I guess it all depends on what your perspective….
[Editor’s note: Jesus Christ! We thought you fell off the map. Great to see you back. And your right, Excelsior is hurting.]
Missionite I’d argue the opposite. The area you’re looking in is the exception right now, not the rule. Here’s how SF looks for SFRs YoY
4/1-25/07: 165 sales 36 DOM 1.288M 632 ppft
4/1-25/08: 146 sales 39 DOM 1.236M 620 ppft
That’s this morning. It’s likely we’ll see another 10 to 20 SFR sales by day’s end. This April could overtake last year’s! I know some folks haven’t added the new sales yet because I’m one of them. One sale was my co-listing, http://www.224upperterrace.com
Apologies to all who have put a lot of stock in sea change. But this is not “typical seasonality.” It’s YoY. Wouldn’t it stand to reason after all we have seen, heard, and digested, that April 2008 would show a steep falloff?
You can’t argue seasonality in the wake of what we’ve seen both in terms of mortgages and widespread media spin, and conventional wisdom. Go ask the guy at the coffee shop what he thinks about the RE market. If he’s not in it, he’ll tell you it’s hurting. No, this normality is more than a little surprising.