Stats & Numbers: Condos May ’07 versus May ’08

District Map

District 1 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 17 15
Median Selling Price 905,000 850,000
Average DOM 30 62
District 2 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 1 3
Median Selling Price 790,000 937,000
Average DOM 2 33
District 3 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 4 3
Median Selling Price 440,000 380,000
Average DOM 50 86
District 4 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 7 5
Median Selling Price 585,000 606,000
Average DOM 37 40
District 5 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 42 32
Median Selling Price 911,000 938,500
Average DOM 29 52

District 6 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 15 8
Median Selling Price 842,000 831,500
Average DOM 26 35
District 7 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 31 32
Median Selling Price 1,295,000 1,075,000
Average DOM 36 50
District 8 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 51 45
Median Selling Price 699,000 775,000
Average DOM 36 47
District 9 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 59 42
Median Selling Price 750,000 795,000
Average DOM 46 77
District 10 May-07 May-08
Number of Sales 8 4
Median Selling Price 509,500 349,475
Average DOM 64 34

Source: San Francisco Schtuff

12 thoughts on “Stats & Numbers: Condos May ’07 versus May ’08

  1. If this looks bad to you, can you please explain why? I need to understand. Because any one of these can be skewed by several very expensive or cheaper sales. It looks remarkably similar from where I’m sitting.

  2. fluj,

    similar to what? I see the median down in most areas of the city. I don’t really count the ones that have one or two sales, but the ones with 20+ seem pretty significant to me. Wouldn’t you agree?

  3. actually, wait a sec. The areas with more condos 5,6,7,8,9 seem to be holding quite well. I was jumping to conclusions. Is it true the other areas don’t have many condos and therefore looking at median isn’t much of an indicator? Are you a realtor fluj?

  4. Two thousand seven and 2008 look similar. You said “most.” Why? Half of the districts — that’s 5 out of 10 — have higher a higher median in May 2008. Count it.

    Secondly, only three Districts have sales volume the even allows for the term median to begin to make sense, and that’s barely. There is supposed to be a sampleset of at least 30.

    Of the districts with 30 or more sales, for both years, there’s only 5, 7, and 9. Of those three 5 and 9 actually have higher medians.

    Third, do you really think District 7 condos are down nearly 200K this year? I don’t. 2008 saw more 1 br or smaller sales, for one thing.

    Last, look at YoY so far. That’s more telling. If this trend stays like this for another few months then things will get interesting. Right now it’s like one month up, one month down. The number of sales are too few. YoY, dollars per square foot, District 7 condos are selling for $35 a foot more than they were last year.

  5. Fluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuj! your view w/explanation is MUCH APPRECIATED!

    [Editor’s note: An admirer of the Fluj perhaps? Fluj fanclub site coming soon. I can see it now…]

  6. SIgn me up for the fluj fanclub, but only if it runs his greatest hits from SS, and the bashfest that he get’s over there.

  7. Can you believe the pain renters are in in SF though? I mean, they see rental prices go up, and are losing their shirts in the stock market!!!

  8. Fluj,Once again (and hopefully for the last time?) a few high or low end sales will not “skew” the median. In fact they won’t affect the median at all. Not one tiny bit. The median is completely immune to the vaccilations of both the high and the low end of the market.

    What DOES affect the median is changes in volume and the overall mix of what’s selling. As I have pointed out it is possible for every single house in a market to decline in value and as long as sales volume drops more on the low end of the market then the top end the median price will rise despite the average going down. Conversely it is possible for every house in a market to gain in value and as long volume is up, and the biggest gainers in volume are on the low end, the median price will actually drop despite the average price and value going up.

    Obviously this diminishes the value of median price as a data point if there are big differences in value and changes in the mix with regards to sales volume. I believe this is the case currently in SF and so I am not paying very close to medians unless I see big swings (such as we saw with SFH’s a couple weeks ago).

    Maybe that’s what you meant but I have to speak up and clarify for the benefit of those that might draw an erroneous conclusion from your comment.

  9. That’s what I meant, look at my point about 1 br sales in District 7.

    And again, look at the 30 or more samplesets.

Leave a Reply