I pulled this from one of many comments by our readers that I’m sure often get over-looked. I thought some of you that are only skimming the front page of this blog might find it interesting…I did. [Edited slightly]
“I was just thinking of something. If there was a blog dedicated to simply highlighting how great homeownership is, and how much wealthier homeowners are, and all the homes that sold over asking etc… it would be crucified. Yet, bubble blogs love to bash on homeowners, and censor anybody with a differing opinion [from theirs].
I think the simple reason is that SF = 70% renters, and even homeowners always want to move up.
I look all around Russian Hill and Pac Heights, and properties are going for higher than last year. I’m sure the same is going on in Cow Hollow and The Marina, Noe, Sea Cliff etc. Why is it that people refuse to recognize that prices continue to go higher in SF? [Good question]
It’s so strange. I really do feel sorry for so many people who want to buy, and have just waited and waited.” -boomtime
I tend to equate it to the “car crash” phenomenon. If there is a car rolled over on the side of the road with the roof severed off, drivers will certainly slow down, and the media will be all over it. For some reason, our society is fascinated with negativity. Whereas, drive by a car on the side of the road getting a speeding ticket, and nobody slows down…unless there are two cop cars, a K-9, and a person in cuffs, standing next to the car, with head hung low, pondering their night in the slammer. See what I’m saying?
Translate that to real estate and you’ll often only hear the bad, because it is good media. You’ll rarely hear about the thousands of people purchasing and selling property on a daily basis in our lovely city and throughout the country, and walking away with a ton of cash in their pockets.
Why people judge a real estate market by comparing prices to one year prior (because no two people are buying and selling property simultaneously) is beyond me and an entirely different discussion. If my parents sell their house, which they bought 35 years ago, I doubt they’ll be concerned with prices from last year, they’ll want to get the most this year.
The whole point to my rambling…we’re here to showcase more positive than negative, and help you get in the game of real estate. If you’re not in the game in San Francisco…we happen to live in a big country with lots of real estate, and lots of opportunity for you to own property, even if you continue to rent here.
And trust me, we take a fair bit of crucifiction via email just by being a blog comprised of a lot of Realtors. We are not a bubble blog, we will never censor your opinion (even the nay-sayers), and we want you to succeed in real estate. If the bubble pops, we’ll certainly let you know when it does, but for now, it has not. (Some of the bubble bloggers egos could use a little de-flating that is for damn sure, and I’m sure you know what I mean by that.)
19 thoughts on “We are not a Bubble Blog”
Couldn’t agree more with ya Mr Editor. I’m certain some will read your post and retort that we Realtors are all just trying to line our pockets with money so we perpetuate a false sense regarding the market. Not really the case as those of us in the industry know.
I see areas in the market for savvy buyers to take advantage of — I see properties I stear clients away from as well.
It does crack me up to see an overpriced house endure several price reductions – then get removed from the market and find it’s way onto a real estate blog as evidence of a bubble bursting market.
[The rest has been removed by Editor per request.]
I agree with a lot of your post, Editor, but do you really think that bad news in real estate now (not necessarily for this area, but for the country) is making more press than good news was a few years ago? [Editor’s note: Without a doubt] Yeah, we may have “bubble blogs” now, but we had sites like condoflip.com opening up shop a few years ago. We may have newscasts talking about subprime mortgages going belly up now, but we had endless reports about subprime mortgages getting people into first homes a few years ago.
Extreme news sells – in both directions – good and bad.
Bad news sells more. Of anything. That is an indisputable publishing fact.
Bad news may sell more for an existing entity, but good news can create more blogs, websites, infomercials, etc. How many of these were created in the last few years dealing with the real estate runup?
Whatever….. this is a great blog covering a very non-traditional market. Nothing wrong with covering boom and bust stories. Heck, even the traditional sold as asking in 45 days is interesting to me.
[Editor’s note: You’re too kind, and I’m working on it…ALL! So spread the word or you’ll find me sipping margaritas in Mexico before you know it, blogging about which direction the wind blows depending on which way you hang your hammock.]
See, when we say negative, look at this:
I question this sort of reportage. And here is my query, is this not a San Francisco publication? One needs to read 2/3 of the way down the page in order to see that Bay Area median price is actually up.
Isn’t there a disconnect there? That’s the sort of stuff that we realtors dislike.
I know what it is. Headlines sell papers. There’s an agenda at work, clearly.
It is a tricky proposition. I am in the RE business (do mortgages) and am also a RE investor. So yes, I have an interest in RE doing well. And yes, there is plenty of bad news in the media about the subprime meltdown, arizona/fla/las vegas RE implosion, bubble blog talk. There are attributes to the inner bay area that have resulted in this market remaining strong. Many of those attributes appear to be remaining in place and some seem to be getting stronger. Which makes me bullish on SF RE. However….
I have heard it said the prices do not go down in SF, you really can not lose if you buy in this market, etc., etc. I can see how this sentiment can get a little annoying if you are not in the market. To my 65 year old father that has been in ugly markets before this can sound down right ridiculous. No one knows what the market will do.
Certainty is a great thing, but when purchasing a home you can only be certain about a few things. Like what your payments will be for as long as your loan is fixed. If an income property, the positive or negative cash flow. The amount of money you have saved as reserves should something happen with your income (unless you are a cash buyer which there are many in this market and are likely pushing values higher). Tax consequences. There are many advantages to owning a property above and beyond appreciation for many people. It is not the American dream for nothing. But like anything, there are potential risks/downsides as well.
Making money off appreciation is great but not exactly exciting if you are going to be paying the higher prices when/if you ultimately purchase (hence some of the bubble blogs..).
I dunno guys. I’m willing to admit that there is probably more bad news now than there was good news a few years ago, but don’t you think that being a realtor makes you listen and notice the bad news more? I was on a long term project in Vegas during most of 2003-2004. The signs around town, the cable TV channels created EXCLUSIVELY for pumping up the market, the pamphlets stuffed under your windshield wiper ALL practically yelled at you: “Hey! The market is CRAZY good! Get in now unless you’re an absolute moron!”
I’m still sticking to my earlier post – traditional media is giving more play to the down market, but the HYPE was bigger during the up market. Doom and gloom sells for the newspapers and TV shows, but “get-rich-quick” does a pretty decent business as well – just find a paper from a few years ago and total up the ad space for real estate seminars and the like.
Not sure if my rant was misconstrued, but I really enjoy this site. It paints a more realistic picture in my opinion.
My rant was to point out that if there was a Housing Head Blog, it would be crucified by the thousands of people out there. It’s not ok to make fun of renters, but it is ok to make fun of first time buyers.
At any rate, prices in the mid/high end are up much greater than the DQ news #’s stated today +4.4%.
142 Cervantes anyone? $2.36 million. You’ll never see this revealed on Socketsite or elsewhere. 80 Rico for $1.75 mil? U will never see this either. Alex, u mind highlighting these with the official link? thn
[Editor’s note: Not misconstrued at all. In fact I should have said thanks for giving us the idea to post your comment as a topic. We appreciate all your commenting, insight and input. Thanks! Yes, I’ll post on those properties.]
Also, heads up… 2742 and 2740 Filbert are BOTH already in contract after its FIRST open house Sunday 4 days ago! Nice TICS. Great location.
Guys. Let’s be real. I’m not here to bash but please don’t try to say that you don’t have a vested interest (and an unbiased opinion). You are not reporters. This site is a marketing tool. I don’t have a problem with that but let’s play it straight.
Cheerleaderism is a phenomenon that plagues every industry. If I work for a software company (and I do), then I tell everyone that it’s a great time to buy software. When they buy it, it pays my bills. Simple math.
What frustrates me (and probably others) is the “can’t lose” attitude regarding real estate. People who supposedly couldn’t lose when they bought in Walnut Creek last year are now losing. Same for those in Sacramento, East San Jose, parts of Napa, Santa Cruz, the list goes on.
RE is a high stakes game that typically involves lots of leverage. Lots of buyers don’t understand the risks that they assume. And despite the fact that things have merely flattened off in SF over the last 12 months is not indicative of future performance. You don’t know and I don’t know where prices are going next.
When you makes posts that allude to people “walking away with a ton of cash in their pockets” you are doing your subtle best to keep the party going. I’m not predicting a crash. But, frankly, I made a boatload more money in the stock market in the last 12 months than the real estate market. (Disclaimer: I own both.)
You’re not really clear about the purpose of this blog. Is it a real estate investment blog or a site designed for aspiring homeowners? First-time buyers or flipper/specuvestors? I can’t tell. But if your aim is to help people walk away with “a ton of cash”, you need more balance. Show how people can lose, rather than only making it seem like SF’s a perpetual cash machine. Those machines exist until they don’t anymore. (See Dutch tulips for history lesson.) Otherwise you’re just promoting blind faith and encouraging transactions. Transactions, as we all know, line the pockets of realtors with tons of cash.
Keep up the work.
[Editor’s note: Dave, notes taken and appreciate the feedback. Because of the comment spam filter, you had to do this a couple times. Which comment would you like up…this comment #1 or comment #2 or both?]
Guys. Let’s be real. I’m not here to bash but please don’t try to say that you don’t have a vested interest (or an unbiased opinion). You are not reporters; this site is a marketing tool for your trade. I don’t have a problem with that but let’s play it straight.
Cheerleaderism is a phenomenon that plagues every industry. If I work for a software company (and I do), then I tell everyone that it’s a great time to buy software. When they buy it, it pays my bills. Simple calculus here. But I don’t pretend to be unbiased.
What frustrates me (and probably some others) is the “can’t lose” attitude regarding real estate as an investment. People who supposedly couldn’t lose when they bought in Walnut Creek last year are now losing. Same for those in Sacramento, East San Jose, parts of Napa, Santa Cruz, the list goes on.
RE is a high stakes game here that typically involves lots and lots of leverage. Many buyers don’t understand the risks that they assume by playing. And despite the fact that things have merely flattened off in SF over the last 12 months is not indicative of future performance. You don’t know and I don’t know where prices are going next. Corner cases of 20% over-ask bids don’t necessarily make it a good time to buy. Would you agree that this is a fair assessment? When you makes posts that allude to people “walking away with a ton of cash in their pockets” you are doing your subtle best to keep the party going. “Risk be damned, just keep plowing ahead!”
I’m not predicting a crash or a boom. But, frankly, I made a boatload more money in the stock market in the last 12 months than the real estate market. (Disclaimer: I own both.) My personal view is that things are gonna flatten out for years to come, but what do I know?
I guess that you’re just not really clear about the purpose of this blog. Is it a real estate investment blog or a site designed for aspiring homeowners? First-time buyers or flipper/specuvestors? I can’t tell. But if your aim is to help people walk away with “a ton of cash”, you need more balance.
My suggestion to improve: Show how people can lose, rather than only making it seem like SF’s a perpetual cash machine. (Those machines exist until they don’t anymore. See Dutch tulips for history lesson.) Otherwise you’re just promoting blind faith and encouraging transactions. Let’s all admit that there is no can’t-lose investment, in anything. Any financially-oriented content needs to explore the possibility that you can lose, or it has no credibility.
Finally, boomtime, what do you mean “if there was a blog” that promoted real estate? Are you joking? Are you really trying to suggest that there’s no content out there for housing bulls? Have you been asleep for the last ten years? Asleep during the biggest real eastate “boomtime” on record? People have been inundated with bullish housing content for years. Please don’t expect anyone to think that housing bullishness is the contrarian, anti-establishment viewpoint that you’ve been thirsting for. Come on…
[Editor: comment #2]
My comments don’t show up. What gives?
[Editor’s note: It’s just a WordPress thing…but I have it set to only allow two links in a post, but no character limit. I’ll look into it further. In the future, just shoot me an email if you’re having trouble. Thanks!]
Crap, I’m sorry. I tried 13 different ways to post but nothing ever showed up… Please feel free to delete any redundant content above.
It would be good if there was some feedback mechanism that says, “Hey, doofus, we’re reviewing your comment and you will see it posted soon. Don’t keep resubmitting!”
[Editor: Totally agree. There is supposed to be something that says, “You already said that”, but this is a computer and they tend to fail. ;-) Thanks again for all the comments and feedback, and I think I got it sorted to show your main comment that had all the juice.]
Lots of people seem to think all the new condos are gonna effect SFR’s in desirable neighborhoods somehow. Why?
I’d also like to point out that blogs weren’t as prevalent two and a half years ago when it was an unmitigated bull market.
I don’t think of myself as a cheerleader. I’m very wary. Folks shouldn’t be spending 900K+ for the Outer Sunset. South of Cortland in Bernal for $1M +??? This sort of wild spending freaks me out. But I’m looking at B- (your Glen Parks of the world) to A + (Presidio Heights) neighborhoods, and I’m realistically not seeing much hope for downward movement in the near future. Not for SFR’s. Multi units, on the other hand, have taken a hit citywide. That’s sort of a whole ‘nother story, tho.
call me naive, or old fashioned.
but isnt my house supposed to be mainly about where I live? it’s my home. I didnt buy it as an investment, even though I guess, its become one now.
so much frenzy about real estate in SF.
well….maybe I’m wrong.
[Editor’s note: Well said.]
Stock market at new record high. Guess what people? Not only have homeowners in SF seen increased prices, their stock market portfolios have grown as well, and in a higher absolute $ value than most renters, given homeowners generally have more assets and wealth to begin with.
Anybody who has a job knows that the economy is booming. I feel sorry for all the bashers and bubble blogs out there.
Is the Stock Market a fair comparison? If someone bought Apple stock at the beginning of this year, they would have 40-50% paper profit in the past 6 months (thanks iPhone, and that unveiling was NO secret). That’s okay, however, because it’s an established, corporate environment and ‘i should have bought too’ buyers just shrug it off.
However, when a private home buyer does even half as well with their own market plays, the ‘i could have done it too’ folks get an especially bitter bent on their shoulder and become almost mean about those folk’s good fortune.
Don’t talk about it (and dis’ their fortunes)…JUST DO IT.