Maximum Overbid: What’s a Fair Home Price Anyway?

As usual, this week’s top overbid is on the west side of town, but this time north of the park, at 287 24th Avenue in the Richmond, which managed a downright vertigo-inducing 67.25 percent overbid for this three bed, two bath, circa 1916 home.

When a sale goes way, way, WAY over asking, we’re left to wonder, was it reasonably priced to begin with?

To ferret that out, let’s look back at all similarly sized homes–three beds, two baths, and between 1,800 and 2,000 square feet–that sold in this same district over the past two years. Ordinarily we might want to narrow it down to just one year, but this being the Richmond that are not that many sales to work with, so to juice the sample size a little bit we’ll do two.

Even then there are only 25 such sales to refer to, but they’re pretty illuminating in all: The median asking price for the whole lot is just over $1.74 million–very nearly exactly what 287 24th Avenue asked to begin with.

But note also that most of those other homes were also overbids when sold, the median sale price coming out to around $1.97 million since March of 2020. So it would have been reasonable to expect a house like this to sell for more–but not necessarily THIS much more.

Of course, this is not an exact science: The quality of a home (and the ins and outs of a bidding war) are highly subjective, which is why this house is now a minor record-holder of sorts, beating out the previous top neighborhood sale for a house of this size in recent years, which was about $2.74 million.

Presumably, the qualities of a property and transaction that drive the price that hight aren’t things we can quantify in a table.

But if nothing else, we can conclude that this was an entirely typical price to begin with–for whatever that’s worth.

AddressBR/BA/UnitsDOMList PriceSold PriceOverbid
287 24th Avenue3/2/N/A10$1,759,000$2,942,00067.25%
469 Fair Oaks Street 471N/A/N/A/N/A6$1,395,000$2,150,00054.12%
469 Fair Oaks Street6/2/N/A6$1,395,000$2,150,00054.12%
3220 Ulloa Street3/2/N/A13$1,195,000$1,805,00051.05%
265 Central Avenue2/2/6$1,050,000$1,575,00050.00%
1776 16th Avenue2/2/N/A9$1,195,000$1,784,00049.29%
379 Day Street2/1/N/A8$1,650,000$2,350,00042.42%
1037 Dolores Street2/1/16$1,095,000$1,550,00041.55%
400 Gates Street1/1/N/A11$799,000$1,130,00041.43%
1526 Plymouth Avenue3/2/N/A21$1,595,000$2,250,00041.07%

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