When you look at this chart/map, what do you see?

I feel like this is a bit of a litmus test.

I was on another blog and a poster actually used this map to back up a point made about neighborhoods north of California st. showing signs of weakness. I was like, huh? This map? Aren’t all the areas north of California YELLOW? (Yellow shows appreciation.)

It isn’t the greatest map/chart/whatever ever. It shows Noe Valley like half green and half yellow. I think most of us are pretty sure Noe hasn’t slid. It shows the north part of Potrero Hill as green. It shows all of SOMA as a chunk of green and I think we can all agree SOMA varies wildly. And the Inner Richmond has fallen? That would be a surprise to everyone working at any brokerage in town, in any capacity.

So, not the best. It needs more variegation certainly. But it sort of just goes to show where we are right now. We who are the buyers, sellers, agents, brokers, fence sitters, you name it. We who post on blogs about real estate. We’ve all come to think that the glass is not full. What does this chart tell you about the the status of said glass?

You’ll notice I didn’t get into who they quote, what they actually say in the article versus what’s happening here in the city, etc. You can get into that if you want. But what do you see in that graphic? I’m curious.

— fluj a k a kenneth kohlmyer

10 thoughts on “When you look at this chart/map, what do you see?

  1. Nice. District 7 is ALL YELLOW (up) as expected, and so is Outer Richmond. Interesting map.

    Two upper $2mil houses are in contract in 2 weeks, one on Octavia, one on Green in District 7. People with money just keep on spending to no end.

  2. map confirms what i have suspected all along this year, and what has been widely seen as the optomistic perspective on the bay area RE market (i.e. that certain popular areas have not fallen.) i’m sure you could do a macro of SF and refine the borders via hoods more granularly, but this gets the basic message across that chuncks of SF are basically fine, so far.

  3. I think it’s also important that everything that isn’t up in the city, except the South East Quadrant, falls in that 0-10% drop range. You see so many charts, graphs and data that generalizes the city (and bay) into a larger drop in price. This shows that the big drop is coming from specific areas and dropping the city average accross the board as a result.

  4. Nice image illustrating that real estate is very local instead of the MSA level stats often quoted for SF. But the source?

    From Zillow’s own site, they give themselves the following stats for their Zestimate:

    San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA

    Accuracy: Four Stars

    Homes on Zillow: 91%

    Homes with Zestimate: 91%

    Homes within 5% of Sales Price: 30%

    Homes within 10% of Sales Price: 51%

    Homes within 20% of Sales Price: 78%

    Homes within 5% of Sales Price: 9.6%

    That median error is the kicker, could completely change the image of up vs. down markets and by how much.

  5. i saw this and was amazed that the chron (and carolyn said) actually admitted some cracks in their continuing “real estate doom and gloom” theme. then i noticed that the headline said “FEW neighborhoods thrive.”

    gotta start reading the examiner…

  6. Fluj – I have a question. I drove by a house on Shrader St today in Cole Valley. It is 1233 Shrader. It was on the market last year for 2.3M (or thereabouts) and was pulled off after a couple months. I think it went back up for sale recently and now has a sold sign outside. Can you find out what the sales price was? This used to be two flats and was converted to a SFR and remodeled. It is nice, but seemed overpriced. Curious to know what it actually went for. Iknow it seems somewhat unrelated, but it could give some insight into still popluar areas in the city. Thanks!

  7. Sure, 1233 Shrader sold for $2.35M. They initially started off at 2.56M late last year and it was pulled off the market in January. It came back on at 2.195M in late July and got into contract within a week and a half.

  8. My first thought was “wow, nice to see that Angel Island home values are holding.” Why is it yellow?? Please don’t tell me they think that is Belvedere?

  9. what I see is continued delusional optimism…bottom line is that the housing market is in a recession….some would say a crash….you can’t paint lipstick on a pig and yada yada yada….bottom line is that this is the worst market for sellers and best market for buyers in a long long time…. and everything points to a continuation of this trend for at least a year….maybe more….you all really need a reality check….

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