Not such a pretty picture for Bay Area housing

kenrosen.jpgIs that why this guy is so smiley? His predictions are coming true?

For those wondering, that is “[e]conomist Ken Rosen, a notorious bear on housing who has called for a correction for several years, [who] said home prices in the urban core of the Bay Area could drop 5 to 10 percent – but outlying areas could see tumbles of more than 20 percent.”

He also says, “You had all these massage therapists who bought speculative homes that are now losing money.” You got something against massage therapists?

We’re calling Bull Sh*t on the Bear and his predictions for San Francisco, because he’s hardly a genius for that prediction. As for the “outlying areas”, we think he’s right on the money. Actually, we’re not calling B.S., because he did say “could”, not “will”. Big difference. And we’re already seeing price corrections, so where’s the story here? He should go into Politics. As for us, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

Bay Area real estate symposium forecasts more gloom [SF Gate]

6 thoughts on “Not such a pretty picture for Bay Area housing

  1. For San Francisco, a 5% downturn after a historic 4-5 year 20-30% runup ? That might be about right, yeah. That’s kind of what every single man, woman and child in real estate thinks, too. Builders in Pleasanton are experiencing difficulties? Shocker.

  2. we’ve seen that correction here in my building for 2 bedrooms or townhouses with no view. they are down 5%.

    speaking of which, it seems to me that if you want to make money in a condo complex, you should buy on the lower floors early. the higher floors seem to have all the profit in them for the developer and you shouldn’t expect to make any real money if you sell anytime soon.

    some of these new developments seem to be challenging that principal by charging just as much for the lower floors however. i’d take the view over the overpriced ground floor unit personally.

  3. I believe he made the massage therapist comment about Las Vegas, not San Francisco. But going forward, let’s “call BS” on anyone that doesn’t agree with our myopic view of the world and stick to debating which side of Chestnut is prettier.

    Sarcasm aside, the relevance here is that a year or so ago, even a prediction of a 5% drop or any correction whatsoever in SF would have been labeled as blasphemous. Today it’s accepted as plausible? So what will 2008 bring?

    [Editor’s note: You’re right. He did. Regardless, I really like your comments. Keep them coming! For the record the North Side of Chestnut proper is prettier as it receives more sun. ;-) ]

  4. Ditto the North side of Chestnut. The knockon effect is that the strolling babes favor that side on account of the better light.

  5. Google Ken Rosen’s predictions since 2001. He’s been wrong for 6 years. Best job in the world is being an economist. You never have to be right :)

    [Editor’s note: Weatherman comes to mind too.]

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