Maximum Overbid: In Which We Are Surprised We Can Still Be Surprised

It’s long since time we learned not to speak too soon when it comes to SF’s housing heights, but here we are once again.

Last week we noted that the then-most recent Maximum Overbid was the sort of sale that can still shock even the most jaded of housing watchers. Now along comes a different deal this week that pulls pretty much the exact same trick.

True, the sale of 321 Los Palmos Drive is not QUITE as dramatic; the $2.15 million-plus receipt is a bit lower than last week’s winner, and the 54.15 percent overbid is a bit less excessive.

But it’s the sales history we’re really talking about here. Since an overbid, while an interesting and telling stat, is something that can be manipulated by canny sellers, sometimes it’s more enlightening to compare these prices to those for the same property in the past.

In this case, the former most recent sale was in 2003 for $612,000. Yes, that means that the new asking price was more than double the previous value–and the final sales price more than TRIPLE.

That’s sobering…or at least, it would be if not for the fact that this is not even the first time we’ve seen pretty much this exact same pattern repeat itself this year. It’s not even the first time within the last couple of weeks.

Again, when this kind of thing happens week in and week out, we get how some people ask whether and how the SF market can continue this kind of heat.

And yet, it has done so for years on end now, and is still keeping it up this week.

Someday, presumably, this will change; but no matter what market prophecies you read elsewhere, the facts right now say today isn’t it.

AddressBR/BA/UnitsDOMList PriceSold PriceOverbid
321 Los Palmos Drive3/2/N/A13$1,398,000$2,155,00054.15%
369 Bocana Street3/3/N/A8$1,695,000$2,600,00053.39%
382 Madison Street3/2/N/A6$699,000$1,065,00052.36%
477 Flood Avenue3/2/N/A7$1,595,000$2,400,00050.47%
1517 8th Avenue3/2/N/A9$1,995,000$3,000,00050.38%
1779 Sanchez Street2/2/N/A1$1,998,000$2,900,00045.15%
315 Franconia Street4/2/N/A7$1,950,000$2,731,50040.08%
214 Twin Peaks Boulevard3/3/N/A13$1,895,000$2,650,00039.84%
379 Flood Avenue3/2/N/A0$1,595,000$2,230,00039.81%
2150 Ortega Street3/2/N/A3$1,295,000$1,800,00039.00%

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