all the maps are available at

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/mapsba.html

includes landslides, fire, liquefaction, shaking etc.

it’s not address by address, but within a couple blocks, you get the info.

What would be really cool for San Francisco is an earthquake mashup that takes into consideration property values as they’re associated with their respective earthquake zone.

disclaimer. I do not have a degree in geology altho I studied it a little bit.

The link I gave above is very interesting as it presents SEVERAL scenariis.

To take one single example: NoeValley.

If there is an earthquake on the san andrea fault – it’s likely north or south of NV/SF – or even west. So the wave will pass along the twin peaks bar and go its way. NoeValley being mostly rubber on bedrock. Reasonable shock that stops quickly.

If there is an earthquake on the hayward fault – it’s likely east of NV/SF – let assume between berkeley and san leandro. So the wave will cross NoeValley then bounce on the twin peaks bar, then echo BACK to NoeValley. whooooooooooooooooooooooo… I’m see sick!.. in both case, add aftershocks, second waves etc.

So do you want to live in NV or avoid it? If we could KNOW which fault will give next, I’d choose. But in the mean time, I’m just ok with the rubber on bedrock.

Now that we can see that the LAND will behave in many different ways with the exact location and depth of the earthquake (so on the maps above, most areas will be fine in one earthquake, and badly it by another earthquake), one should analyse the house as itself.

Again. One house will be ok, and the next one will fail.

Regarding the pancaking effect. Pancakes happen when the first wave (the fast one) shakes a tower.. rides the tower to the top floor, echos on the roof, then rides the tower back down, and MEET the second wave (the slow one). The floor where both waves meet is most likely failing, and pancaking. So that’s why you would find 9stories building with the 4th floor pancaked by the earthquake, while all other floors are intact (or let say, structuraly good enough so people can escape). So wave transmission is essential in designing a tower or any multiple concrete building. (not that it’s done anyway, as one can only test for a couple combinations [location, depth, wave speed etc] )

Regarding the shape of the structures. During the mexico quake, they figured our that the wave was actually very much like a water wave, and the buildings that held the best were ‘in the shape of boats” – like long, rather narrow, and some heigh/width ratio. AND the best odds were for the buildings which were at a certain angle to the wave.

Round two: even if the shape of your house is “better” – if it’s the san andrea fault, you’re in the right axis (north south) and if it’s the hayward fault, you’re in the wrong axis (and vice versa if you are on a E-W street or N-S street).

Two rounds. Two losses. Cant predict all-scenariis for a specific property. Even more, in some cases, one property will do much better, and in other case, the same property will do much worse than another property.

What we CAN do is to carefully review the geological survey included in the disclosure package – AND have a reasonable retrofit of once’s house… that includes very basic stuff like bracing the water heater! or removing the 300lbs painting above your bed. What good is it to have a house unaffected, if you’re dead – decapitated by your picture frame falling from the shock?

Last, no matter your exact address, you’ll be in the same boat as your all neighborhood – fighting over the same food in the same store. I’d say that living (and buying realestate) in SF is … well.. living (and buying) in SF. It comes with risks, and it comes with benefits – most if not all of them are shared from PacHeights to HunterPoint. Only the people are differents.