Is SocketSite Growing Bull Horns?

Maybe it’s a Halloween prank, maybe a treat, and we have yet to get the trick, but yesterday on SocketSite, they (we know it’s you Adam, but we’ll play along) had a decidedly confused tone:

The Federal Reserve Cuts Benchmark/Discount Rates By 0.25%

The known: the Federal Reserve has cut both its benchmark interest rate and discount rate by 25 basis points (a quarter percent) while signaling that further cuts are unlikely.

“Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. “After this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth.”

The big unknown(s): will the cuts help revive our national housing market? [We’re sensing an inkling of concern.] And of course, what impact (if any) will the cuts have on mortgage rates closer to home? [That black cat must have your tongue… or did you see a ghost?]

Maybe the market here in San Francisco is not as bad as you make it out to be.

…….And we were wonderin’, they teach Black Magic at Wharton?

Fed Lowers Rate by a Quarter Point to 4.5 Percent [Bloomberg]

16 thoughts on “Is SocketSite Growing Bull Horns?

  1. Adam needs to balance is very bearish undertones with recognition of some positions, otherwise advertisers will flee.

    You know Adam’s age. And you know he didn’t buy in the past 14 years when he could.

  2. Socketsite caters to renters, as the founder himself, is a life long renter. Nothing wrong with it, just got to know your audience.

    The city of SF doesn’t even need a rate cut, and yet we get one. God bless America!

    [Editor’s note: For some reason your comments keep ending up in spam purgatory. Makes no sense as you have included no links. It could be the filter thinks your “name” is some cialis or viagra pitch. ;-) We’re working on it.]

  3. What I find funny about Socketsite is all these people with jobs, we assume, who have the time and inclination to get really deep into macroeconomic theory. Yet they’re all renters. If you think about it, it’s funny. They get off on discussing macro in cyberspace. Nerd freakin city, brah.

  4. In all fairness, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’d have to disagree with you guys on a couple points. I say this knowing what I know now about a large percentage of our readers, who I see commenting on SocketSite, as well as emailing and commenting on theFrontSteps.

    True, Adam’s tone has changed considerably since his launching (wisely I would say), especially his attempts at FSBOs. True, any Realtor worth their weight should seriously check the archives on SocketSite before giving him money, and surely shouldn’t be sending him “tips”, unless of course they want publicity for their listings, which all do. True, if you simply subscribed to the San Francisco Business Times and read every article by J.K. Dineen and Ryan Tate, read DataQuick as soon as the numbers came out, checked MLS everyday yourselves, read SFGate and tracked the Case Schiller, you’d realize the SocketSite scoop is just a mish mash of other scoops put on one site. His scoop is hardly unique. That’s how a lot of blogs do it, I do it, and reporters are the same…they get information from other sources. Blogs link to and from one another, share information, and spin it differently. I try to come up with unique content all the time, but it ain’t easy.

    I do find it amusing how many large blogs link to SocketSite and to how few he returns the favor. And why do we (well I don’t anymore), and all the Realtors comment on SocketSite? So they can hyperlink their name to their own site and get traffic. But the Realtors commenting anonymously is a joke. Step up and claim who you are.

    So to defend or argue your points about SocketSite readers, if they’re anything like theFrontSteps readers (and I know a lot are the same people), I’d have to say a very large percentage of SocketSite readers are both highly educated, highly compensated, and highly interested in real estate (both buying and selling). Yes there are disgruntled readers commenting all day about the fall of our market, and those that will never find real estate a wise investment, but that is their loss, and truly annoying, but part of the game. It’s the car crash theory… And there is really nothing wrong with being a renter, so let’s not hold that against anyone. How many of our clients are renters? Lots…but we call them buyers.

    The point of this post was to illustrate that the voice behind SocketSite appears to be running out of ammo to support our (San Francisco’s) crashing market, and that is interesting.

    Lastly, I once read a book that said to never make assumptions, and I try to practice that advice, but fail to quite often, and now is one of those times. I would venture a guess that more than 75% of his readers are “industry people” like you and me wondering what shenanigans he’ll be up to next, and wondering how they can promote their own businesses (listings) through his site…hence a lot of the “tips” that are very much from the “inside”. I say this knowing that quite often I’ve been sent “tips” that I fail to publish because I know it is an attempt for publicity, and sure enough, they show up on SocketSite the next day. Viva America! Viva capitalist motivation to make money! Viva theFrontSteps!!!!

    Regardless, thanks for “un-plugging”, and “stepping in”.

  5. Hrmm. I comment on both sites (I am “missionite” there…). Not only do both sites have their unique attributes, I think there is room for more, and have thought about starting my own, if it weren’t for the fact that I am too fricking busy to bother with running a blog.

    At any rate, and with all due respect, because I am a fan of this blog, and visit several times a day, I think your sniping at Adam is unbecoming Alex. True or not, it comes across as sour grapes. Just do your own thing, it’s entertaining in it’s own rate. Blogs are not zero sum games, and shouldn’t be treated as such. If you don’t like how Adam runs his blog, run yours differently. It’s that simple. But please, stop whining about it.

    Finally, I have to disagree that SS is running out of ammo to support a crashing market. I think you are reading too much into one sentence. And I don’t think the market is crashing, not yet. But I do think much more severe corrections are on the way.

  6. I also frequent both sites daily, and I enjoy hearing the perspective from all sides, even (and sometimes especially) the ‘nerdy’ dissection of the economics behind real estate. Talking about pocket listings is fun, but surely macroeconomics have just a little something to do with real estate. No? Or is real estate more like a high-stake game of cards? Just luck of the draw?

    Yes, I’m currently a renter but I have been in the market for a SFH for the past six months, thus my interest in all things SF real estate. Please, all you realtors out there, keep in mind that renters = future buyers = your next clients. What cracks me up is the often boorish, obnoxious, insulting, and downright rude comments often posted by realtors…on both blogs (and read by hundreds of potential clients). It makes me hope that I never have to work with those particular realtors in person!

    And I agree with ah boom, I like this blog, but every so often I run across some snide remark here that makes me feel like this blog is nursing an inferiority complex. Socketsite is obviously ignoring you, Alex, and I would just take the high ground and do the same.

  7. What I think is funny is the poster who calls himself MarinaPrime, BoomTime, along with about 100 other names who constantly (and I mean constantly) trolls all these sits and message forums to sprout his position that the Marina is the best place on earth and the only people making money anywhere are those who buy and sell Marina property.

  8. I read all the blogs, the SF Biz Times, Chronicle, everything. I even get Alex’s SF NEwsletter. It seems everyone is so quick to pounce on others, but I have to defend Alex. If anyone is a watch dog, he is more so than anyone or any publication I read. He is constantly hounding the media for scaring everyone about the national housing market, then in fine print saying SF is not that bad. He’s also the only one that calls out other Realtors bull shit, and creates a forum like this for us to call out there bull shit as well. How many realtors actually invite criticism? None. And as of yet, I have not seen anyone call out socketsite’s bull shit, because there is a lot of it there. Everyone takes that site as the be all end all. It is not, and Alex is totally right. J.K. Dineen should be at the helm over there, because 9 out of 10 of the “big” posts that get a lot of comments come from something he wrote about in the biz times. Hats off to Alex for hopefully keeping some people in check. I think you’re doing a fantastic job with all your sites and newsletter. Don’t let these nay sayers get you down. I’d be bummed if you stopped doing this blog.

    [Editor’s note: Who said anything about me shutting this down? And thanks to “ah boom” and “renters are people too” for your comments, which have been noted and logged in my memory. I’ve been feeling the same way lately.]

  9. For the record there is nothing wrong with renters and hell yeah, they are future buyers and I know this. To clarify my point about what I find amusing vis a vis socketsite, it’s this. Lots of those people are absolutely convinced that the real estate market is a joke. They “know” better than to buy anytime soon and for the foreseeable future. Yet that doesn’t stop them from digging hella deep into Japanese real estate market trends and the like. Come on. Am I alone in finding that humorous? By the way, I’m fluj.

  10. hi kenny,

    i’m not sure if you ever answered my serious query over on ss about your frustrated buyers and what their budget was? i find that the typical ss reader and poster is a frustrated realtor that just isn’t realistic about what can be had in this town in a neighborhood that doesn’t get striffed with bullets. you have to be realistic sometimes.

  11. hahah. Nice one. The typical SS reader is a realtor …. stop right there. Doesn’t matter what the rest of the sentence says. You know you’re full of shit right then and there. You know, I’ve only been on Socketsite for about a month or two? I am a blog newbie. It’s kind of weird because I actually used to edit web content for a living. Somehow I missed the whole blog 1.0 thing. Anyway …

    I finally got my clients into something. They were willing to spend up to $1.2M with 20 percent down and they wanted something they could add equity to. Their plan is to fix up a place and rent it for five years or so and then move in down the line after they tie up some out of state business.

    They are great clients. I mean, for me, it really offered a great chance to get in and really see firsthand what’s happening right now. I literally wrote six offers on fixers and cosmetic fixers in solid neighborhoods, all for over a million bucks. Noe, Panhandle, Lower Pac Heights, areas like that. I wrote each offer over asking but in a sensible manner. Five percent or so. We wrote on that CRAZY Sanchez stairs deal that went for 400K over asking. We wrote on the Clayton st. grand Victorian that was on the market for about two days. I was all over it. All over it. Early pre-emptives, you name it. Nothing doing.

    In the end I figured that central San Francisco just doesn’t make any sense right now unless you have a ton of liquid capital. I started looking at areas 4, mostly a suburban in feel area, but decent value. I got my clients into something in Miraloma park for 699K. It has 900 off the tax records feet of developable square footage downstairs and a flat roof off the upstairs that screams roof deck. Huge lot. Big backyard. Just off the charts upside. They got a killer deal. The big one could hit and they’d still come up, given their gamplan.

    I think there’s some awesome deals out there right now. But not in Noe Valley, Lower Pac Heights, Cole Valley, or any area 7 or 8. (Although I have a fixer on the market myself that the right person could profit off of — Alex, is that copacetic? Go ahead and delete it if it isn’t.) [Editor’s note: Totally copacetic. In fact I’m trying to get some clients to buy it, but they’re dragging their feet. I think it is a killer deal. And I see you’ve had a price reduction…even better.]

    By the way, the editor of this web site is a cool dude. Not all of us realtors are shrill buttheads. Believe that. Some of us love this town and actually like to help people out. There are about two of us out of every 15 or so. Joke.

  12. Not prime. You’re right. It does get annoying, but whatr you gonna do? I think Boomtime, Marina Prime, and UPUPUP are the same people. You think UPUPUP is the same guy? And how funny that the editor said his comments are for some reason ending up in spam. that’s because they are spam!

    [Editor’s note: And your comment ended up in spam too. Ironic? Maybe so, maybe not. Me thinks it’s the name UPUPUP that’s throwing the filters, and this pretty much confirms it.]

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