| Condominiums | ||
| District 1 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 5 | 7 |
| Median Selling Price | 575,000 | 700,000 |
| Average DOM | 74 | 50 |
| District 2 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 1 | 2 |
| Median Selling Price | 949,000 | 703,500 |
| Average DOM | 39 | 57 |
| District 3 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 3 | 3 |
| Median Selling Price | 569,000 | 517,000 |
| Average DOM | 61 | 40 |
| District 4 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 5 | 3 |
| Median Selling Price | 580,000 | 411,000 |
| Average DOM | 44 | 38 |
| District 5 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 38 | 21 |
| Median Selling Price | 775,775 | 936,000 |
| Average DOM | 47 | 27 |
| District 6 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 14 | 16 |
| Median Selling Price | 667,000 | 752,500 |
| Average DOM | 50 | 45 |
| District 7 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 20 | 19 |
| Median Selling Price | 907,500 | 1,261,000 |
| Average DOM | 38 | 33 |
| District 8 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 19 | 16 |
| Median Selling Price | 625,000 | 612,500 |
| Average DOM | 53 | 38 |
| District 9 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 50 | 46 |
| Median Selling Price | 758,750 | 732,000 |
| Average DOM | 60 | 55 |
| District 10 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 |
| Number of Sales | 5 | 3 |
| Median Selling Price | 514,000 | 480,000 |
| Average DOM | 76 | 51 |
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Wow. Those numbers are vastly different than what I would have expected especially considering that September’s close of sales contained August’s problems.
District 7 – DOM lower, volume about the same, prices 40% higher. Hmm. Some crash.
This is really interesting. San Francisco’s high end market is holding incredibly well, and is still increasing $$ wise. Los Angeles’s however – and specifically Santa Monica’s — is starting to have trouble. A lot of the high end stuff has been rolling back to ’06 pricing. Is that a precursor for the SF market, or will we ride through the next couple years unscathed?
[Editor’s note: Good question. We don’t think anyone has the answer to that.]
I thought ’06 was higher anyway?
Kenny – That is exactlyt he confusion. I finally see people now saying 2006 was the high, and not 2005. We’re up 25% from 2005. But, depending on where you go, 2007 is the new high, or 2006 is the high.
Some people can’t see their way out of a paper bag. Trend lines folks, and common sense. Sales volume is down. DOM is meaningless with delist/delist (s/b days of manipulation). The big story is what would the 15% of houses that didn’t sell this year vs last have sold for if the owner got real. If volume is up and median is up then you got a stronger case, but when your entire median imcrease of 2.6% is dependent almost entirely on marina condos shooting up a frankly ridiculous 40%, then you start to get a more accurate picture: only homes in the upper reaches are selling well and with ridiculous increases, so median just went up.
If you have 100 houses, 50 sell for $700k and 50 sell for $900k then your median is 800k. Let’s say next year the market drops put of the market for the $700k houses and only 35 sell for $600k, the rest don’t sell at all. Guess what happpens? A bunch of people go post on TFS about how fricking healthy the market is and IN YOUR FACE to the bears because even though volume is down 15% the median has gone up to $900k so buy now or you’ll be locked out fo-evah. This despite the fact that $14 million dollars just evaporated from the market.
Want to wake up to reality? 6 out of 10 districts saw a decline in median. I guarantee that wasn’t true last year. In fact I bet that last year that number was zero.
The trendlines are what matter here, and they pretty clearly to a bunch of drunks in the bedroom who don’t realize everyone downstairs has left and the party is over.
Enjoy your beer.
[Editor’s note: No predictions have ever been made from theFrontSteps. Only pointing out the current state of affairs. We leave predicting to you.]
Yes, and to be clear I wasn’t accusing TFS of making predictions. My ire was directed primarily at HQ, but also boomtime, not because he posted here but because I know he was thinking it. :)
I love the site BTW, and the people on it. Get some coffee in me in the morning and I’ll rage against the machine, but good people all around, you know?
[Editor’s note: Good coffee, we hope. Glad you like the site. Tell some friends.]