by Garrett

Detailed SF Districts Map (pdf)…in case you were wondering.

Condominiums
District 1 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 12 15
Median Selling Price 734,500 995,000
Average DOM 60 39
District 2 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 2 4
Median Selling Price 880,000 681,250
Average DOM 27 32
District 3 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 3 2
Median Selling Price 504,500 542,250
Average DOM 69 57
District 4 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 8 4
Median Selling Price 516,000 560,000
Average DOM 50 40
District 5 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 34 29
Median Selling Price 807,000 830,000
Average DOM 42 41
District 6 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 21 14
Median Selling Price 610,000 794,000
Average DOM 39 70
District 7 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 31 24
Median Selling Price 876,000 1,087,500
Average DOM 47 38
District 8 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 34 32
Median Selling Price 637,500 665,000
Average DOM 49 50
District 9 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 55 41
Median Selling Price 675,000 815,000
Average DOM 51 46
District 10 Nov-06 Nov-07
Number of Sales 4 1
Median Selling Price 602,250 210,000
Average DOM 46 33

Data provided by SFAR

18 comments

  1. District 5,6,8,9 also doing good.

    D7 +25% YoY? Wow. I think prices are up about 10% in actuality, and the rest is described due to a higher mix shift.

  2. Area 6 to me is the most interesting. People will complain about the “sample size” for condos. But if you factor in TICs and Loft condos too, for area 6, it’s 26(’06) to 21 (’07)YoY with increases in both $psqft and sale price for ’07. If you include SFRs and 2-4 units, it’s 31 (’06) to 36 with ’07 showing big price gains across the board again. Something has happened in the last couple years for area 6. People definitely like it more than they used to.

  3. I think the big thing Area 6 has going for it is the central location. If you are in generally good health you can easily walk to ALOT of pretty cool places from there, i.e. Upper Haight, Lower Haight, Hayes Valley, Cole Valley, Duboce, Fillmore corridor, Clement St, and of course the up-and-coming Divis corridor. The big thing against it is the projects. Some parts of 6 are impacted by the latter more than others though.

    It is also not too bad for commuting out of the city. Fell/Oak with the timed stop lights make getting to 80 or 101 fairly straight forward outside of the rogue double-parker. And if traffic sucks that direction and you need to get to the East Bay (as my wife does every morning) the GG Bridge is app the same distance as the Bay and the traffic is always better.

  4. “sure looks like my district, 9, south beach is falling apart. higher sales prices and fewer days on the market. wow!”

    And 25% fewer sales, too! Everyone must love living there cuz they don’t leave. Oh, wait – D9 is the one with all the vacant condos, right?

  5. Area 9 is SOMA right? I think a lot of it is mix. People are buying more and more expensive places (so i guess prices/sqft is also going up). Look at The Millenium towers at $950-$1000/sqft with $700/month HOAs. People are eating those up.

    For those of you who are retired, or don’t need to work, I highly recommend you come up to Squaw tomorrow or this weekend. The conditions are absolutely PHENOMENAL!!!

    I love Tahoe :)

  6. If I was a realtor I would be terrified by these numbers. I wouldn’t care if prices were going up or down so long as they were selling. These numbers look like a realtor massacre! Where are all the sales???

    Lessee, districts 1 & 2 had a combined 35% increase in sales volume, which you know, great, but that’s only a 5 house increase.

    Meanwhile when you combine all the other districts (which is 90% of market) there’s a 23% decrease in sales volume. And that’s 43 condos that didn’t sell this year. Good lord!

    A 5% reduction in price on a million dollar condo is a $50k loss to the seller, but it’s only a $2,500 “loss” to the realtor. So if you sell 5 condos a year, that’s a $12,500 “loss” total, and yeah that stinks, but if you had your share of declining sales volume, then you are looking at a total decrease of $50k, and that’s a nightmare!

    If I was a realtor I would be on my hands and knees begging people to lower their prices and get these condos out the door.

    Oh and people: DOM means less then nothing. Think about all the relisting and resetting of DOM that happens. Think about how much more it must happen in a declining sales volume environment as sellers and realtors get increasingly desparate and have increasing incentive to make their property look fresh and new. I wouldn’t be surprised if we started seeing negative DOM’s, know what I mean? :)

    The only number that can’t be faked, manipulated or obfuscated is sales volume. And from what I see, that number looks, as Larry David might say, “Pret-Ty bad, Pret-Ty Pret-Ty bad”.

  7. Missionite – How long have you been renting? I feel your frustration. If you’re a homeowner, you care about price. if you’re a realtor, you care about volume indeed.

  8. heya missionite,

    you may be right about DOM for some percentage of these; what, maybe 10%? the fact is there is not enough inventory on the northside and when something does come up it pretty much flies off the shelf.

    my experience in ’07; 4 multi-unit properties bid on, between 10 and 20% overbid and i lost out on all 4 to others willing to pay more (lots more).

  9. missionite, can you elaborate on the “sellers and realtors getting increasingly desparate”? i agree somewhat if you are talking about soma lofts and dist.10 but how about districts 2,5,6,7,8,9? and if you were to define SF could you possibly leave any of these districts out (aside from #2). overpriced 1bdm condos, yes. most other stuff, not so much.

  10. Paco,

    These figures are for condos, not multi-unit properties. Multi-unit properties are quite hot right now, as you would expect given the current market conditions (increasing acceptance of TIC, rising rents etc.). I saw your post on Socketsite as well, so I’m familiar with your story. And there’s no doubt that quality housing in good locations continues to sell well. I’m not addressing your anecdotes. I’m merely pointing out the obvious: declining sales volume is bad for realtors as a whole, and is much worse then declining prices. If I was a realtor, I would be very concerned about volume.

    Re: “sellers and realtors getting increasingly desperate”

    At some point the tide turns, one direction or another. You can’t have rising prices and declining sales volume forever. If sales volume keeps consistently declining, then at some point there will be some owners who will have to sell for any number of reasons, and the only way to close a sale in a timely manner will be to reduce the price. If this happens enough, and the price reductions are deep enough, a feedback effect then kicks in when buyers as a whole realize prices are going down, and grow more reluctant to buy, not wanting to gamble their life savings on a depreciating asset. And that’s how a down cycle gets rolling. And indeed in some neighborhoods this is clearly already happening (sucks to be a seller in the Excelsior right now). But there is downward price momentum in a lot of neighborhoods right now, and some would surprise you. For some examples see my post here:

    http://submedian.blogspot.com/2008/01/whats-diff.html

    I don’t have a clue as to what percentage of DOM is being manipulated and I don’t think anyone else does either, but let’s take your 10% at face value. And let’s say that the average DOM for a house that has been manipulated is roughly double that of the stated average DOM. That’s enough to result in a 9% decrease in the DOM for all eight districts (3-10). But I think it’s really much worse then that, and I’ll give you an anecdote of my own. A good friend sold a nice house recently (not in November) in a desirable part of D4. Rather then put it on the MLS right away, the agent shopped it around within his network for about a month and a half, both before my friend had moved, and for about two weeks while it was getting dressed up for sale. After already lining up a buyer, he then put it on the MLS where it was up there for all of a day until the deal closed, resulting in a DOM of 1 day. There were 4 houses sold in D4 in November. If they all averaged 50 days like last year, then my friend’s realtors little maneuver (which took 42 days of selling to accomplish) would have the effect of bringing the average DOM for the entire district down to 13 days. The district looks like a winner, the realtor looks like a winner, and the rest of us are left with a very misleading picture. That’s why I don’t even bother to look at DOM stats anymore. They are meaningless. Since the MLS started allowing resets, there’s even less oversight then there used to be, so the number is simply devoid of value as a useful metric.

    BTW I am not saying that realtors and sellers are neccesarily desparate right this second in all districts, rather I am saying that as volume continues to decline, there will be increasing incentive to make the properties as marketable as possible. Results will vary depending on the neighborhood, the seller, and the realtor.

    And as far as defining SF, I don’t know how else to define it except as the 10 districts within city limits, so I’m not sure what you mean? Are you suggesting we should only define SF as neighborhoods that are still selling well? If you are trying to point out that some neighborhoods are doing better then others you can do that without having to kick the Excelsior out of the city!

    District7,

    I don’t have a dog in this particular fight. I got kids, so I’m not in the market for a condo and never will be. I am in the market for a SFH however, and I can buy an ok one right now (got the cash, and outstanding credit history), but I’m sitting out for the time being. It just doesn’t make sense right now. I am not a bitter renter, in fact at the moment, I am quite happy being a renter, and really don’t want to change that situation for the time being.

  11. missionite- good points well taken. agreed that its tough to be a broker in this town and now more so than ever. i believe that you are right to wait for prices to come down b/c when they do they usually cycle down for a few years BUT i think some districts will be hit earlier, harder and longer.

    i’m also waiting in the wings to pounce on a SFR in d6 or 7 but i think i’ll need to do another multi-unit deal to be able to afford what i want. i’d be stoked if prices came down enough to obviate that but i’ve been waiting a looong time.

  12. i don’t agree on dom being irrelevant. at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how long you are on the market. all the matters is if you got your price. how can you ignore that? less places to compete with means less supply means higher prices. your logic just doesn’t jive with me.

  13. Missionite – Good luck with your hunt for a SFH. Let’s hope there’s more inventory in SF, b/c i took a quick look at sfarmls.com, and didn’t see much in an area I want to live for under $2mil. Perhaps if we get an increase in inventory, we’ll get more sales.

    RSC

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s