Think Real Estate? Think Long Term Appreciation

McGuire Real Estate is going web 2.0 with a new website they just launched (the first firm in San Francisco to go 2.0, but others to follow suit we’re sure), and we invite you to check it out. Truth be told, we barely scratched the surface of the site, and already had to poach this graph:

Average [San Francisco] appreciation versus Q4, 2008

appreciation1

Check out their site, check out this graph, and let us know what you think.

8 thoughts on “Think Real Estate? Think Long Term Appreciation

  1. What does that graph tell us that we didn’t already know? That real estate had a long run-up and that it has recently declined? Wow, McGuire, thanks for the news flash!

    What it doesn’t give us is any insight into whether we can expect real appreciation in the next 5 -10 years (ie whether we’ve hit a bottom and it’s actually a good time to buy now).

  2. The past is no prologue here. You could plot the S&P500 for the past 20 years, too. And SP500 a couple of weeks ago was close to 1994 levels. Buy and hold is no longer a viable strategy – in stock market, or in real estate. Cash flow is the only game left.

  3. Wow. Tough crowd. I like the beta site. Not really a destination but far more info than just your standard RE website and the market graphs are ok but. Of great.

  4. Maybe I am too picky but how did they come up with that data, I’d like to see the source, is it adjusted for inflation ?

    These days buyers are doing a lot more research before they buy and just re-packaging buy and hold doesn’t cut it anymore.

  5. So you want a forecast do you? Well OK then!! Here goes: The Bay Area real estate recovery depends largely on how The Bay Area buyers & seller react to The Federal Stimulus package. Will they like that mortgage interest deductibility on primary residences has been lowered? I think not. How will they like larger capital gains taxes? Not!! Both the West Coast and The East Coast are not stimulated by The current Stimulus Package. California and New York are critical to the National recovery. Combined they are responsible for a huge portion of The National GDP. Ultimately, this will become known to those in Washington. When? When stagnation continues in spite of their “Stimulus” package.

    So it really doesn’t matter that the Economists don’t really know how to accurately predict our future either… no one’s seen this kind of global trauma on the financial systems before…. so they’re guessing too. (Although they tend to agree that this recovery will be at a mild pace with slow growth of.. perhaps.. 2 to 3% appreciation per year)

    But alas… I have a crystal ball so I can tell you, Mr. 99PAA, what the future holds. So here it is: Buckle up, it’s going to get a lot bumpier before it gets better. Plan on hard times for the next six months and, maybe, into the first half of 2010. By then, The Federal Stimulus Package will have something ‘stimulating’ to jettison the markets on both coasts.

    When to buy, you ask? Where’s the bottom? IMO the answer is this: The “Wealthy” areas of The Bay Area haven’t found their bottom prices yet…. I’ll tell you this: If you’re in this for the long haul (5 years or more) the best time to buy is NOW. It is better to act now than to be caught once again …“bottom feeding”.. as a side-liner who “shoulda, coulda, woulda” bought if I only knew. So there it is… the future ..

    [Editor's Note: Yes, this is Charles Moore, owner of McGuire Real Estate. Thanks for the comment Charles! And thanks for visiting theFrontSteps.]

  6. At the bottom of the page you’ll see data is sourced from the San Francisco MLS. It is not adjusted for inflation.

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