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From Peak To Valley To (New) Peak, San Francisco's Housing Recovery Is For Real

New highs in home prices have not yet been reached in every San Francisco neighborhood, but the majority has either regained the value lost since the 2008 market meltdown, or now exceeded the previous high points of 2006-early 2008. (Different neighborhoods peaked at different times, just as they are now recovering at different speeds). This does not mean that every property bought at the height of the bubble in feverish multiple-offer bidding wars has now regained peak value. Nor does it mean that values might not fluctuate or drop in future months due to seasonal and/or other economic factors.
Though virtually every market in the country is now on a similar upward trajectory, San Francisco’s has recovered more quickly than most in the Bay Area, state and country. The city’s neighborhoods, with a few exceptions, were never hit as hard as most other areas by the tsunami of distressed property sales: our home values generally fell in the 15-25% range compared to huge declines of 40-60% elsewhere and so we have had less ground to recover. That said, the city has always been an exceptional real estate market and the confluence of economic factors both general (such as the lowest interest rates in history) and unique (such as the local, high-tech boom) jumpstarted and supercharged our recovery beyond most others.
It should be noted that, looking at past recoveries in the early eighties and mid-nineties, it is not unusual once a recovery gets underway after years of recession and repressed demand, for the market to regain previous peak values within a couple years of the turnaround beginning. Recoveries often start with a dramatic surge and that is what has happened with this one.
City, State & National Long-Term Overview
In this chart, one can see the recovery occurring everywhere, but most dramatically in San Francisco. In this analysis, we’ve calculated the 2013 SF median house sales price for the 5 months since the year began; if we looked at just the last 3 months (reflecting offers accepted in 2013, when the market accelerated further), the SF median house price jumps to about $1,000,000. (Note: State and national data sources are behind those we can access for the city, and the last median prices reflect that disparity.)
1968-2010_US-CA-SF_Median_Price
SF Houses: Previous Peak Values to Present
In this chart, since we’re also calculating average statistics, we’ve capped the sales price at $3,000,000 because ultra-high-end sales usually distort averages. We see the previous peak value in 2007 (for SF houses in general), the drop to the bottom of the market in 2011, and the rebound starting in 2012 and accelerating in 2013. By all 3 main statistical measures of value, San Francisco houses have met or exceeded previous peak values. To adjust for seasonality, the comparisons are for the spring months of each year.
SFD_Median-Averages_Change
We have a ton more graphs and data (including condo and neighborhood stats) to share with you in the next few days, so make sure to check back, get theFrontSteps delivered to your inbox, and/or bookmark Our Stats & Numbers page.
It’s a good time to sell…especially if you have that Wanderlust.
Data Source: Paragon Real Estate


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alexclark

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