Global Warming Could Fuel (Future) San Francisco Real Estate Market
Coming off the heels of possibly the warmest day in San Francisco for the entire month of August, and actually seeing the sun at the coast (I think we broke 70 yesterday), it got me thinking about this recent New York Times article, “Think It’s Hot Now? Just Wait“.
Apparently, “July wasn’t just hot — it was the hottest month ever recorded, according to NASA. And this year is likely to be the hottest year on record. [Makes me wonder how August stacked up.]
Fourteen of the 15 hottest years have occurred since 2000, as heat waves have become more frequent, more intense and longer lasting. A study in the journal Nature Climate Change last year found that three of every four daily heat extremes can be tied to global warming.
This map provides a glimpse of our future if nothing is done to slow climate change. By the end of the century, the number of 100-degree days will skyrocket, making working or playing outdoors unbearable, and sometimes deadly. The effects on our health, air quality, food and water supplies will get only worse if we don’t drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions right away.”
Take a good close look at those maps and think to yourself. If it gets hot as hell, as predicted, where would you want to live? Where will your golf game be more pleasant? Where will your bike ride not suck because your tires don’t melt to the pavement? Where will that nice Napa Cab taste just right? Frying an egg on the hood of your car is only fun once…okay maybe twice.
Forget for a second the millions of people out there that think California’s one AVERAGE winter last year snapped us out of the drought (we’re sooooo not even close to smooth sailing in that department), and forget the millions more that think global warming and greenhouse gases and all that is some political stunt, and think for just a couple minutes about where is going to be an ideal place to live if it keeps getting hotter? A place where you LIVE and not simply SURVIVE.
Looking at the maps, Maine seems pretty ideal…but the bugs will drive you out of your mind, especially the black flies…I know…they tore me up on a canoe trip down the Allagash. (Actually, all the bugs might be dead by then if it gets as hot as predicted.) Phoenix does look inviting with around 163 days/year over 100 degrees, or maybe Houston with some 99% humidity and 62 plus days/year over 100? Hang on a sec….look at the West Coast!
The West Coast of the United States (assuming we have enough water to drink and keep our food supply alive), seems like a pretty safe bet to me. Now you gotta decide between California, Oregon, or Washington. Tough choice, indeed.
Regardless of where you choose, you’d have to think these most desirable coastal areas are going to get even more desirable as the rest of the nation becomes unbearable, right?
Yeah, I’m in the California real estate business, and I think California is hands down the best State in the Nation, but I bet you never thought about the Global Warming problem like this. Perhaps you should.
Think about the potential increase in value for property near a nice cool sea breeze or coastal fog. A place where average temperatures year-round hover in the mid to high 60s. Think about the attraction of not having to pay ever-increasing energy costs to cool your home…just open the window. Think about coastal real estate. There is no more of it, and it’s gonna get hot, hotter, hottest everywhere else!
If you think I’m nuts, and think our market is destined for a crash, have a look at the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for San Francisco since 1987…lots of little ups and downs, but all-in-all WAY up:
It’s safe to say, San Francisco real estate is pretty much steadily hot, and in the future (thanks to Global Warming) could get even hotter. Something to mull over on this foggy (again) August morning.
–Think It’s Hot Now? Just Wait [New York Times]
–More Long Term Trend Market Graphs [theFrontSteps]
–More Reasons We Live Here [theFrontSteps]
–The Most San Francisco Summer – Just One Day In 70s In August [San Francisco Chronicle]