Comment Du Jour: Oh Noe, Where Will You Be In 2 Years?

From “Seb” on “Noe Valley Is Not Immune”:

Where do people think Noe [Valley real estate] prices will be in two years? Up or down? I sense things are stabilizing.

We’ll just say the feeling of free-fall has disappeared. Stable? Not so sure. Going up, definitely not. In two years…crystal ball is a little bit cloudy.

9 thoughts on “Comment Du Jour: Oh Noe, Where Will You Be In 2 Years?”

  1. Seb, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that –barring a global economic melt-down (I’d put the chances of that at less than 10%) — prices will be higher. Why? A. People have short memories. B. There is or will be pent-up demand. C. San Francisco’s denizens — and certainly those that can afford to live in Noe Valley — are relatively well-placed to ride out the rough economy and be on the front end of its recovery.

  2. I think Noe is down about 10 percent at most right now. If you look at what’s currently in contract — granted, we do not know what things are going to close for — the dollar per foot numbers are hovering somewhere in the 800’s. In my opinion the smaller number of big ticket sales is what the graph displays, by and large. IMO, the smaller the house, the less a difference one will see. That’s down to a number of factors, the lending industry’s changes being numero uno. As you go up the luxury scale, I think you can start subtracting $psqft. And I think this trend is likely to stay. The days of huge houses commanding the same dollars per foot are probably over.

  3. I think this whole trying to pin a percentage decline on a particular market is bordering on lunacy. Real estate is so complicated and micro that you can analyze a identical properties on identical blocks and have wide variations. It all comes does to final buyer / seller negotiations.

    Personally, it’s more valuable to me to understand general direction. Are we going up or down? The answer is pretty clearly down in most parts of the city. Is it 10% or 30%? This is not a question that can be answered. Properties priced to move are moving and I don’t think we’re seeing a broad 30% decline; but Misha’s analysis is valuable and helpful to show trends and I think it demonstrates that quite well.

  4. Lower.
    Sales in the whole of D% were DOWN 79% YOY For March.
    anedcotes are that April is better. But anecdotes were that March wasn’t bad too.
    8 sales in the whole of d5 suggests to me that list prices are still too high and have some way to fall.
    So yes, lower than todays prices in 2 years. Certainly lower from the peak.

  5. There are more neighborhoods in SF than just Noe Valley, but it seems Noe gets prominent discussion here… not sure I understand why.

  6. I cant stand the ambiguity of RE Agents. I’d never hire someone to represent me that couldn’t give a yes or no, or higher or lower answer when asked for their opinion. no offense Alex, but “a little cloudy”? you didnt answer, and I’m sure it isnt an accident.

    well, I say it’ll be lower, i’m not afraid to be wrong, but i think i’ll be right.
    – incomes in the bay area are down, unemployment is way up and going higher, more companies in the bay area are either going under or laying off, and a lot of these people that have been milking/living off of equity lines are just about at the “pay up or sell the house you inherited” point….

    JMHO…..

  7. If 3976 25th Street and 765 Sanchez are any indication, looks like things are already heating back up, at least for quality properties.

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