In case you like to follow your local celebs and what they’re doing with real estate:
-Larry Ellison Sells His Lake Tahoe Property for $20.35 Million [Wall Street Journal]
Not to be outdone:
Tim Lincecum’s Arizona Mansion just hit the market for $3,995,500 [San Francisco Business Times], but sadly it only comes with Basketball court and no batting cage.
If you haven’t heard about listing syndicator site Zillow acquiring competitor site Trulia for $3.5 Billion in stock, I feel for you…especially if you’re in real estate. Since this announcement, I’ve received a couple emails, seen a few comments, read a few newsletters, and thought I’d try to spark a dialogue here on the site.
For what it’s worth, I’m definitely not thrilled about these two companies continually capitalizing off of our data. I certainly feel they would be nothing without the brokerage community, and firmly believe real estate brokers and agents got it all wrong (especially bowing down and “claiming” our own listings on these sites…for a fee!), but who am I to judge. I want to hear what you have to say. To start the conversation, have a look at what a reader said recently in a past post we had done about how worthless Zestimates are: “Zillow Zetimates Rubbing You Wrong Too? Vent”:
Why hasn’t anyone considered starting an “Agent Owned” National CMLS Internet advertising company by which we all become coop owners and share in the ad revenues and use the service at moderately low cost. We could put a stop to all the internet companies using OUR LISTINGS to make BILLIONS and use those revenues as retirement supplements to all the coop members of the National CMLS internet company. I am sick and tired of Zillow, Trulia, Realtor.com, and other sites using our listings to milk the real estate agents for money that belongs to us. These are our listings not theirs. If anyone should make money on our listings it should be us. We can put a stop to this and no longer allow these sites to use our listings. In the very least, they should be paying us for our listings. Wake up Real Estate Agents………….
Then, have a look at what a local brokerage had to say in their newsletter about making sure their listings are accurate on these sites (ever think about just killing the feed?):
This is big news in the real estate community. We know these sites are very popular with the public, and that’s why for years [brokerage] has fed its listings to both sites. This has been done to try to minimize the kind of factual errors often found on these sites. Despite their popularity, Zillow and Trulia are not getting their content from our local MLS, and so listing details can be wrong. Dramatically wrong at times.
As a matter of fact, Zillow itself gives the accuracy of its popular “Zestimates” only two out of four stars in San Francisco, admitting that these estimates have a median error of nearly 12% – that’s a big number. Still these sites are popular, and while [brokerage] believes it has enhanced the user property search experience on its own website, the company will continue to keep an eye on Zillow and Trulia, and leverage these platforms as much as possible.
Finally, have a look at this email I received on the matter:
Realtors are guilty for not keeping up with the times and being completely opposed and scared of technology, as we know well. PocketListings.net being the ultimate example. I still don’t understand how hard it was to make anyone understand the concept of creating their [Realtors'] own listing network that they control. Doing anything to really help agents is ultimately a dead end because they are all stupid – few exceptions like you :) The successful businesses don’t give a shit about agents. Zillow, Trulia…as you stated, mining all the data agents worked hard to create. Redfin, basically wants to cut the agent out of the equation. The solution is simple: kill the feeds and those companies perish, but the industry never will. It’s run by idiots.
Share your thoughts in the comments below…(Remember, you can be anonymous if you choose).
The Case-Shiller Index report for May 2014 for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area was released the other day, showing another small bump in home prices from April to May. The aggregate or total index is now up approximately 55% since the market recovery began in early 2012. The 5 counties covered by the index are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa.
However, Case-Shiller also breaks out home price changes by price tier – low, middle and high – and each tier has experienced dramatically different trend lines since 2000. The low price tier – homes found mostly in Alameda and Contra Costa counties (though also other Bay Area counties not in the SF MSA, such as Solano, Sonoma and Napa) experienced a crazy bubble much larger than the other price tiers and subsequently experienced a much bigger crash due to foreclosures and short sales. The middle and high price tiers, which predominate in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo, experienced much smaller bubbles and crashes. This is dramatically illustrated in the first graph below.
In all the Case-Shiller Indices the numbers refer to a January 2000 home value of 100. Thus a reading of 195 signifies a value 95% above that of January 2000.
All tiers have seen big recoveries since 2012 began, but only the high-price tier has now exceeded previous peak values attained in 2006-2007. Because of the absurd size of the low-price tier bubble, its home prices are still far below previous peak values and it’s probably unreasonable to expect them to be surpassed anytime soon.
However, all the price tiers show very similar overall appreciation rates since 2000, running from 93% to 97% over the 14 ½ years, which suggest an equilibrium is being achieved across the general market.
This chart below tracks home price appreciation for higher-priced homes since 2012. As with all statistics, monthly statistics are much less meaningful than longer term trends.
San Francisco itself, whose median house price is now over $1.1 million, has performed significantly better than even the general high-price tier, as can be seen in the median price chart for the Noe & Eureka Valleys neighborhoods of the city.
This chart is just a sample of how some San Francisco neighborhoods – especially its most expensive ones – have far exceeded general Bay Area appreciation trends, as far as previous peak values are concerned. Many of San Mateo’s cities have experienced a similar dynamic, as they both share the dominant effect of the high-tech wealth effect on home prices.
If you would like more information about these charts, or the San Francisco market in particular, give me a shout.
Below you will find important statistics for the past decade and a half on the luxury markets in District 5. The price point has reached $1.5M for an average home in Glen Park and more than $2M to own a home in Noe Valley and Eureka Valley. Note that the 2014 data are year-to-date, between 1/1/2014 to 7/25/2014.
According to The Mark Company Trend Sheet, the value of new construction condominiums in San Francisco was $1,144 per square foot in June, up 13 percent year over year, and the value of resale condominiums was $953 per square foot, up 23 percent year over year.
Below you will find the recent new construction and resale condominium report from the Mark Company, one of the leaders in new development sales in San Francisco, and the market guys behind the enormously successful Amero, Arden, 8 Octavia, Park 181, as well as past home runs at The Brannan and 733 Front. They have extensive knowledge and analysis on our real estate market for high rise, luxury, and new constructions, as well as how these properties are being resold.
San Francisco condominium prices rose 13 percent in June 2014 over the previous year, according to the Condominium Pricing Index released by The Mark Company.
The Condominium Pricing Index for June was $1,144 per square foot, which is up 2 percent from May. New construction inventory was 63 percent higher than a year ago, but down 2 percent from the previous month, with 401 units now available.
“While several new developments have begun selling recently in San Francisco, including Arden by Bosa and 8 Octavia, the additional inventory has not been sufficient to stop the persistent appreciation in prices in recent months,” noted Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company.
The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet (available at http://www.themarkcompany.com), represents the price per square foot of a new 10th floor, 1,000-square-foot condominium. It is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.
The Mark Company Penthouse Pricing Index, which applies the same methodology to a new 30th floor, 2,000-square-foot condominium, was $1,964 per square foot in June, up 13 percent year over year.
The condominium price per square foot was $953 for resales, up 23 percent year over year and up 2 percent from May 2014, according to The Mark Company Trend Sheet for San Francisco. In addition, there were 268 condominium resales in San Francisco in June, 274 active condominium listings representing approximately one month of inventory, and 168 pending condominium listings, the Trend Sheet found.
Available units include less than 117 residences at Arden in Mission Bay, 29 residences at 8 Octavia in Hayes Valley, 16 condominiums at 1645 Pacific in Nob Hill, 23 units at Fifteen Fifteen in the Mission District, 20 condominiums at Millwheel North in the Dogpatch, 11 units at the Mint Collection in the South of Market neighborhood, and 74 residences at Vida in the Mission District.
From 333 Grant #707 to 4348 21st St, an $11,000,000 Penthouse at the Four Seasons to a 1 bedroom condo on the 46th Floor of that big ol’ tower by the Bay Bridge, there is a little category out there that is often overlooked and it’s high time it gets the attention it deserves: Properties on the market more than 30 days a.k.a the 30+ Club.
As much as I like to highlight Overbids and Underbids, properties that make the jaw drop, multi-million dollar sales, and my own triumphs, this category should actually get more attention, because if you have a property to sell in San Francisco and it hasn’t sold or gone in contract within 30 days, you’re doing something wrong, and if you’re a buyer continually getting beat out by the other guy, there is opportunity right here under your nose.
*This data is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed accurate by the MLS or myself, although it’s pretty damn close to 100%.
Although I’ve been out and about and trying to enjoy summer, clearly the Overbid factory didn’t get the memo. Check out the most recent craziness, including one architect/owner designed house on 15th Ave that sold almost 40% over asking! To all of those that think things slow down in Summer…think again.
Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco:
|414 Missouri St||4/3.00/N/A||6||$950,000||$1,410,000||48.42%|
|671 Alvarado St||2/1.00/||12||$899,000||$1,305,000||45.16%|
|1426 6th Ave||3/3.00/N/A||13||$1,595,000||$2,300,000||44.20%|
|609 Precita Ave||2/2.00/N/A||42||$825,000||$1,175,000||42.42%|
|531 Sanchez St||2/1.00/N/A||8||$995,000||$1,400,000||40.70%|
|2570 Folsom St||4/3.00/N/A||14||$1,595,000||$2,210,000||38.56%|
|45 Richland Ave||3/1.50/N/A||10||$650,000||$900,500||38.54%|
|2628 15th Ave||3/1.50/N/A||12||$849,000||$1,175,000||38.40%|
|656 Arguello Blvd||2/2.00/3||21||$799,000||$1,104,713||38.26%|
|80 Jersey St||3/2.00/||14||$1,195,000||$1,650,000||38.08%|
Want the top 20, sign up for sfnewsletter @ sfnewsletter.com.
[Update: Business Insider Just Shared 13 Properties all Selling For $1M or more over...]
Have a great weekend!
Imagine if the British had won…
I hope the fog lifts so San Francisco gets a firework display, rather than a colorful cloud show. Me, I’m outta here, seeking 90+ degree weather, high altitude, blue water, mt bike trails, and eventually my kids.
Be safe. Drive safe. Drink Safe. Have a great weekend.
A Look At Some New Developments Popping Up Around Town
San Francisco median home sales prices have increased dramatically since 2012. Beginning from a low-$600k with an average price per sqft of mid-$500, and then accelerating in the first half of 2013 close to $800k with an average price of mid-$600 per sq ft, to almost $1M mediam home sales price and $800+ per sq ft currently. To say San Francisco and the Bay Area are in the midst of a very dramatic recovery would be considered a very large understatement.
Thankfully, new development is soaring once again, generally in the form of large new condo projects (many of which have already sold out), so if you’re deciding whether to buy a new condo, and paying $1000+ per sq ft for brand new everything, here is a list of the hot new developments that are changing various districts of San Francisco.
The highly anticipated Amero, in Cow Hollow, has 27 Units. Sadly, they’re all sold out before construction completes in Q4 of this year.
But there are other developments which still have available units:
In the Mission district, Vida has 114 Units, and opened earlier this year, with about 25% sold. Featuring 1 to 2-bedroom units, up to 1,138 sq ft.
Also in the Mission, Fifteen Fifteen is a 32-unit building that might have one or two units left. Features studio to 2-bedroom, up to 1,100 sq ft.
Toward Mission Dolores neighborhood, there is 35 Dolores, a 33-unit building with an estimated opening in Q3:
Located in the vibrant Hayes Valley, 8 Octavia features hi-tech ammenities including Nest for temperature control, building is wired with high speed internet, and remote doorman service. This is one of the few buildings that has multi-floor penthouses with trendy concrete ceilings. 1 to 3-bedroom penthouse, totaling 40 units. Estimated Opening: Q4
Last time I visited they had only a couple units left, so don’t delay.
In Pacific Heights, 39 Units (12 sold). With Estimated Opening in Q4 this year, this building offers junior 1 bedroom to 2 bedroom, up to 1,877 sq ft.
A few blocks south, we have 1450 Franklin, a 67-unit building with estimated opening in Q4:
The major developments are all in District 9, which includes Potrero Hill, SOMA, Mission Bay, and Dogpatch.
Located in the sunny Potrero Hill, Onyx is just steps from an array of cafes, restaurants, galleries, and nightlife. Opened in Spring this year, it is almost sold out. 1 to 2-bedroom, totaling 20 units.
Arden by BOSA
Built by the developer behind the Madrone and Radiance, Arden is a luxury Condominium by Mission Creek. Some of its perks are the stylish interior design, minutes from the Mission Creek Park, dog park, and downtown. 1 to 3-bedroom, up to 2,300 sq ft. Total units: 263, and already 100 sold
Lumina and Park 181
Built by the developer behind the highly successful and iconic Infinity, Lumina (656 units) is one of the new constructions that will be changing SOMA along with Park 181, which is designed by famed architect Heller Manus, the same architect behind Infinity.
Park 181 (67 units) is an ultra luxurious new development that offers great views, as well as many luxury amenities. They are both located right by the new Transbay Terminal and minutes from the Ferry building. 1 to 3-bedroom. Estimated Opening: Q3-Q4
Adjacent to the historic Condominium conversion at 88 Townsend, 72 Townsend is coming in 2015 and features 1 to 3-bedroom, up to 2,800 sq ft, totaling 74 units. 1:1 parking ratio.
Located in SOMA, Coming in Q4.
In the already up-and-came Dogpatch, Millwheel North is a two-building condominium project connected via a shared landscaped courtyard. Located across from Progress Park, its perks include proximity to Caltrain and everything that Dogpatch has to offer, including the Pier 70 redevelopment that is scheduled to kick off this summer. 1 to 3-bedrooms, up to 1,710 sq ft, totaling 39 Units. Estimated opening in Q3
That ought to get you started and help you zero in on some of the new developments popping up around town. But these things sell fast (so fast, that our numbers might already be off), so it’s best to have someone on your side. Give us a shout and we’ll get you dialed. If you, or anybody you know, has interest in any of these units, contact us for pricing, more details, and to get you in the door. (Developers and sales offices hold these details close to their chest.)