theFrontSteps – San Francisco

Turn the volume up…

-Bring Your Own Big Wheel, San Francisco, Potrero Hill, Vermont Street [Official Site]

A look at the past couple of weeks of sales and listing activity for San Francisco, as well as some other real estate tid-bits to tie you over until the next issue…

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I should point out, this is the most real time information you’ll get for most recent sales unless you have access to MLS yourself.

-sfnewsletter/MarketTracker

I used to do a thing a long time ago called “Stump the Stammtisch“, where readers could write in and my (then) panel of experts would share their answers in the comments below (Think Trulia Voices, before Trulia existed). I changed it up to “Ask Us“, and received considerable response to many a question. But then, I got busy with life.

Let’s see if the community out there would like to take a stab at answering this question, and see if I can get the Stammtisch going again. If you’d like to be in the Stammtisch, it’s simple. Just answer the question, link to your website (or remain anonymous) and continue to answer any questions we throw up in the future. Build a track record as an expert, someone that cares to answer questions for complete strangers, and you’re in.

That said, my colleague at Zephyr Real Estate would appreciate any feedback you could provide in the comments below…

If a shooting occurred where the victim died and it was 200m from the subject property would you expect to see, in this current market, a decrease in value, and if so what arbitrary number would you assign to the decrease.

My reply is that it’s going to have some type of an effect on the resale of the property, but “in this current market”, I’d be willing to bet for as many buyers that are out there that would be deeply bothered by such an event, there are just as many that will see this as an opportunity, which, in our assbackwards real estate market, could actually increase the number of potential buyers to a property and actually drive the price up! I would imagine if this is in an area where homicides are common (that would suck) it will effect the price less than if it were in an area that would normally be considered safer (Bayview Hunter’s Point versus Pacific Heights for example.) My arbitrary number on the decrease in value: $0, it would be a wash…it will bother some, and not bother others.

Crime is everywhere, especially in San Francisco.

[Update: Some replies sent inter-office]
Responses from Agents

-My clients and I bid on a house at shotwell and 24th a year and a half ago where three guys had been shot on Friday night, bids due Monday.
It had 17 offers, three all cash, and went $200k over asking (we bid $150k over)
-My first Zephyr sale was under similar circumstances. The house in question was located in the Excelsior, listed for $599K in Escrow for $619K, there was a shooting within a few feet of the house so the first buyers dropped out. My buyers jumped in at the $615K and did not care because they were from England, lived in the Mission and were thrilled to get the house.
-A few years ago we had a listing in the Mission where a guy died on the sidewalk right in front of the house next door after being shot around the corner on 24th St., running down the block and collapsing about six inches from the edge of our clients’ house. This all happened about two or three weeks (something like that) before we came on the market.We disclosed it and everyone who asked pretty much shrugged their shoulders, and said, “Well, it’s the Mission.” I don’t remember how many offers we got but it sold for over asking to a single mom with an elementary-school-age kid.If your listing is in a neighborhood where stuff like this doesn’t usually happen, you will probably get a different answer but if it’s the Mission or equivalent, it might not make a big difference.
-I don’t see that as a big value “decreaser”, depending on the area and especially if the victim and perp knew each other so it wasn’t a random act…..

Good luck to you either way mate!

-Trulia Crime Map
-Stump the Stammtisch

San Francisco Homes Selling Faster as Inventory Drops

With potential home sellers feeling that the market is on the upswing and that housing prices will soon appreciate, many of them have elected to hold off listing their homes, resulting in a citywide inventory shortage. At the same time, potential home buyers fearing higher prices are rushing to buy, particularly with the low-interest rate mortgages that are available today. These two forces are causing the already low for sale housing inventory in the city to be gobbled up at a faster rate. And, without new homes for sale to replace those that have been sold, the city’s inventory remains low, while home sales are staying high.

Single-Family Home Sales

Although the city’s inventory has dropped by 25.5 percent compared to February 2011, inventory levels also have ticked slightly upwards since January of this year, by 7.7 percent. And, despite the low inventory, homes under contract showed improvement compared to the same time last year, rising by as much as 22.9 percent. Moreover, the number of homes sold has almost doubled, by 40.7 percent, with a tally of 173 properties.

For homes that were priced below $700,000, the months of supply inventory fell by 66.2 percent to 1.2 months. For higher priced homes between $700,000 and $1.2 million, the months of supply inventory fell by 30.4 percent to 1.6 months. These short time frames continue to indicate a seller’s market, where sellers have more leveraging power over buyers who are competing against a limited group of properties.

One part of the city which experienced an above average increase in sale activity is the Sunset district. Since February 2011, the number of homes under contract has risen by 11.4 percent, while the number of homes sold has jumped by 52.4 percent to a total of 32 properties. The Sunset district, a predominately residential area, rests on the central-west side of the city. With good schools and plenty of family-owned businesses, home buyers seeking a more conservative and small town approach to living would find the Sunset district ideal.

Another area of the city which saw notably positive real estate activity is the central-eastern section. Compared to the same time last year, the number of homes under contract in the section increased by 4.8 percent, while the number of homes sold spiked by 157.1 percent, to a total of 18 properties. Although generally associated with the condominium markets of the South of Market (SOMA) and South Beach areas, the central-eastern section also includes neighborhoods such as Bernal Heights and Potrero Hill, which offer an assortment of cottages, bungalows, and single-family homes in a very friendly, community type setting. Home buyers who yearn to be close to the city, but who also desire amenities such as a small garden or yard, would find solace here.

Condominium Sales

Similar to single-family homes, the number of condominiums for sale throughout the city also has lessened by 33.6 percent since February 2011. Still, in spite of the low inventory, the number of condominiums under contract rose by 17 percent this past month, while the number of condominiums sold remained relatively the same, dropping only by 1.2 percent.

For condominiums that were priced between $500,000 and $900,000, the months of supply inventory shrank by 51.9 percent to a reading of 1.4 months. For luxury condominiums priced above $900,000, the months of supply inventory also decreased, by 28.9 percent to 2.5 months.

One region of the city which continues to experience strong condominium sales activity is Downtown San Francisco. Compared to this time last year, the number of condominiums under contract rose by 9.3 percent, while the number of condominiums sold shot up by 50 percent to a total of 42 units. Quintessential San Francisco neighborhoods such as Nob Hill and Russian Hill offer some of the most stunning and luxurious condominiums in the city. Those seeking to take an elevator up to their home and views worthy of magazine covers will find just what they’re looking for in Downtown San Francisco.

Outlook

Nationally, the consumer confidence index, which had decreased in January, increased in February. The index now stands at 70.8, up from 61.5 in January. (A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy.) Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, says, “Looking ahead, consumers are considerably less pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions than they were in January. And, despite further increases in gas prices, they are more optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy, job prospects, and their financial situation.”

Based on the preliminary unemployment rates from the California Employment Development Department, the statewide and local job outlook is showing continued improvement, with the State’s unemployment rate dropping in January to 10.0 percent from 11.2 in December. Overall unemployment throughout the Bay Area also was down, with San Francisco seeing its unemployment rate decline from 9.5 percent last year to 8.1 percent this past January.

Earlier this month, the Federal Housing Administration announced that it would slash mortgage insurance premiums for certain home owners who refinance an FHA loan into a new one under its streamlined program. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, “The administration estimates that 2 to 3 million homeowners could be eligible to refinance under the reduced fees. But in the Bay Area, FHA loans were relatively rare until March 2008, when FHA raised its loan limit in high-cost areas to $729,750.

The San Francisco real estate market is likely to experience the same trend of low inventory and high sales in the next few weeks as home prices are expected to go up. When they do, San Francisco should begin to see a greater inventory of homes hitting the market.

In laymen’s terms…it’s a good time to sell!

-San Francisco Real Estate Market Focus Report (PDF)

Being a real estate writer has depressingly few perks. I don’t get free tickets to concerts or desert on the house at Michael Mina. The product I write about, you see, can’t really fit in a gift bag. Mostly, I get accused of being a Realtor (I’m not) or of being “in bed” with the NAR (which again, I’m not. That sounds exhausting, by the way.)

But two weeks ago this perk-less-ness changed. Together with several other writers from across the country, I was flown to Tahoe for an all-expenses-paid tour of/experience with Northstar’s new Home Run. Aptly named, the development is a system of homes built mid-mountain, far above the (pleasurable, but at times, overly popular) melee of the Village. No waiting in line for the lift, folks. The ski run awaits just a few steps from your back deck. Wake up, ski out. Sweet!

Still, sometimes when I see construction in the middle of a forest, no matter how spectacular that construction, I feel uncomfortable. You know this feeling?  Human guilt? But at least here, as with all Mountain Residences projects, East West developers aim for LEED certification for each home- and we were introduced to many trees (including my favorite, old “Grandpa”)  and rock formations that had to be protected, built around rather than pulled from the earth.

Construction with a conscience means I was better able to relax, take in my surroundings, which that day were sparkly- a cold blue sky setting the freshly falling snow ablaze, everything studded with tiny diamonds on fire. Between each of the Home Run residences lie trails, tunnels, and bridges- everything inter-connected.  It’s very exclusive-village-in-the-Alps:  charming architecture, soaring vistas, the hush of a thick blanket of snow.

Our group toured one model home, mostly complete, which you see pictured here. The view alone made me want to hide in the (huge! Sexy!) bathroom until everyone left so I could stay forever. So what if the water wasn’t hooked up yet? I had miles of it, frozen and pristine, for my private use right outside.

But we had plenty to look forward to, including a meal at the Ritz Carlton which also rests mid-mountain. Over course after course of carefully paired wine and cuisine (developed under San Francisco’s own, chef Traci Des Jardins), we learned that two of the custom home lots have already been purchased, one by a young “Silicon Valley tech” family (for some reason, I thought Zynga. Unconfirmed). We also learned what Northstar is doing to change its more “vintage” easy-going (read “affordable to the middle-class”) ski area image. Purchased by Vail (of Vail, Colorado), Northstar is in full luxury market upgrade mode, adding high –end shops, linking new developments with exclusive rights to the Ritz and Schaffer’s Camp, and planning to cut ski runs on Sawtooth Mountain whose verticality will do away, finally, with the “Flat Star” label.  Meanwhile, the wine and food kept coming. I was drunk on luxury.

The almost surreal opulence of it all was capped off by the gondola ride back down to the Village at Northstar, a full moon casting blue light over the snowy expanse.

Back home now, I offer you this story, and the skinny on Home Run, because if I had the money, I would buy in immediately. I can see Christmas up there with my parents and maybe the kids I’ll have one day. I can see a week there, just me and my man, in our hot tub sunk deep in the snow. I see summers on my bike, hiking with my dog, and many, many gondola rides to the Ritz.  And remember, I am just a real estate writer and teacher: not only can I actually not afford to buy one, I receive nothing if anyone else can and does, even if that person does so because s/he saw my story. And yes, East West wined and dined the writers. But that was two weeks ago. The wine’s worn off. The food’s digested. I can hardly be asked to give it back should I chose not to write about Mountain Residences.  But why would I choose that, when I can’t stop thinking about how cool they are?

3-4 bedroom, 1,900-3,200 square-foot, Home Run townhomes are priced from $1.6-$2.3 million. East West Partners anticipates Home Run move-ins to begin spring 2012, so that means right now. If you’re lucky enough to be in the market for your own private ski-in/ski out chalet just a short drive from the Bay Area, you should grab Alex, grab your skis, and head to Northstar.

Say hi to Grandpa as you ski by.

[Guest Post By Anna Marie Hibble...THANKS ANNA!]

I’m keeping up with my New Year’s resolution to ask clients for testimonials, and I’m thrilled at how willing you all are to share! I really, really appreciate it, and I enjoy working with all of you.

We were relatively new to the Bay Area and had been conducting a very haphazard and ineffective home search until we were introduced to Alex. He came highly recommended and we quickly found out why. He introduced us to different neighborhoods and new pockets of the city, opening our eyes to possibilities that we had neglected on our own. Alex helped us to be aggressive (but smart) in our negotiations. He was our ally and a trusted advisor from our very first meeting and we couldn’t be more pleased with the results. Alex is without a doubt an extremely important (and fun) person to have on your side during any home search.
-Annie and Morgan

Thanks guys! You rule! Enjoy your home and don’t be shy with invites to some barbecues in that awesome east facing (we talked wind) backyard…

-More Testimonials

As a reminder, if you can’t get a laugh out of this San Francisco, you need to harden the f*ck up!

This is absolutely f*cking hilarious…especially the “Can I get a three quarter double shot 50/50 decaf soy latte with one and a quarter equals in a take-away cup…”

This could be anywhere in San Francisco.

LOL! on a Sunday.

-Best Coffee (House) In San Francisco Official Winner [theFrontSteps]

Another week, another issue of sfnewsletter sent. All kinds of great market info and real estate p*rn for you to peruse. Including many off market opportunities I’ve already mentioned here.

Have a great weekend!

-Latest issue of sfnewsletter/MarketTracker

I have word of a house, on the Great Highway at Noriega (the best sandbar on the beach right now), that is very much for sale, and very much not on MLS radar. Price hovering around $1,050,000 and $1,100,000. That is the view above, and here are the details below. As always, I am here to help get you in.

3 Story SFR taken to the studs and beyond in 2008
2BR 2.5 BA + Office
3 car tandem parking
LOTS of storage
Dog wash station
Hot/Cold water hookups for outdoor shower in the backyard
Ipe flooring throughout
Open layout with 8′ wide sliding birch pocket doors separating living/dining/kitchen
8′x15′ Blomberg window in living room
Custom cabinetry throughout
Spark brand fireplace in living room with flat screen TV mounted above
Half bath on living level
Huge dining room
Gourmet kitchen
Wenge cabinets
Subzero fridge
6 burner Wolf Stove with a grill and 2 ovens
Stainless sinks
Island with prep sink
Ceasarstone counters
Bosch dishwasher
Walk-in pantry
2 person office with built in Wenge desk and cabinetry
Baths all feature custom bamboo cabinets, modern Italian tile and Italian fixtures
Laundry room
Rear bedroom with attached bath has shower over tub
Master bathroom has walk-in 2 person shower with seat
Soaking tub with river rock surround
2 sinks
Separate room for toilet and bidet
Master bedroom has his/hers closets + walk-in closet for shoes (most closets in the house have storage by california closets)
Also has Spark brand fireplace with flat screen TV mounted above, cathedral ceiling, built in Wenge headboard with nightstands, plus built-in bed (plus a platform for a dog bed)
Expansive deck overlooking the surf
Ocean views from living and sleeping levels

From what I know, this is a home built for entertaining, hanging out, and enjoying all that Ocean Beach has to offer.

Contact me to go take a look. Principals Only.

This property is located at the end (or beginning) of 18th Ave in San Francisco. It can be yours for $3,995,000, and I’d be happy to get you a tour.

-5 beds, 3.75 baths, 5700 square feet, $3,995,000 [MLS]