overbidnevada

From 32% In NOPA To 65% On Nevada – San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

It’s Friday, that means it’s time for the Top 10 Maximum Overbids of the week. As usual, there are some doozies, but nothing I would consider ultimate shockers like a few of the last weekly Top 10′s we’ve seen. The number one spot goes to the “Contractor’s Special” on Nevada in Bernal Heights that fetched 65% over (totally in line with market sales price, and not easy to price this type of property). The number 10 spot goes to my clients that finally won after so many years searching – 538 Baker in NOPA that was “only” 32% over asking and the winner out of 15 other offers, two of which were actually higher than ours and all cash. We had a loan. But we “won”.

Anyhow, on with the show. The Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco this past week:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
270 Nevada St 1/1.00/N/A 14 $530,000 $876,000 65.28%
866 Cayuga Ave 4/3.00/N/A 20 $928,000 $1,380,000 48.71%
27 Day St 3/1.00/N/A 43 $895,000 $1,310,000 46.37%
1271 15th Ave 1273 4/3.50/ 13 $1,795,000 $2,550,000 42.06%
307 Parker Ave 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,250,000 $1,710,000 36.80%
25 Miraloma Dr 3/2.00/N/A 10 $1,050,000 $1,420,000 35.24%
1150 Holloway Ave 2/1.00/N/A 35 $889,000 $1,200,000 34.98%
320 Castenada Ave 3/1.50/N/A 26 $1,695,000 $2,250,000 32.74%
471 Hickory St 2/1.00/N/A 5 $1,060,000 $1,400,000 32.08%
538 Baker 2/1.50/N/A 11 $948,000 $1,250,000 31.86%

On a side note, one of my listings will hopefully be closing today, and believe me when I say we knocked it out of the park. Will we make the Top 10? No, but maybe we’ll scratch into the Top 20.

If you’re curious what your property might sell for, give me a shout.

Have a great weekend!

-Top 20 Overbids Delivered to Your Door (Inbox) [sfnewsletter.com]
-Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? It’s Competitive Pricing [theFrontSteps]
-Top 20 Underbids [sfnewsletter.com]

Case-Shiller_Simpl-Percentages

Recessions, Recoveries & Bubbles

My company just put out some heavy duty data crunching that can shed some light on this recent housing boom. I have put the entire report below. Enjoy and share.

 30 Years of Housing Market Cycles in San Francisco

Updated Report

Below is a look at the past 30 years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines are often quite similar. Looking at cycles gives us more context to how the market works over time and where it may be going — much more than dwelling in the immediacy of the present with excitable pronouncements of “The market’s crashing and won’t recover in our lifetimes!” or “The market’s crazy hot and the only place it can go is up!”

Market Cycles: Simplified Overviews 

Up, Down, Flat, Up, Down, Flat…(Repeat)

Case-Shiller_Simplified_from-1984

Case-Shiller_Simpl-Percentages

Smoothing out the bumps delivers these simplified overviews for the past 30 years. Whatever the phase of the cycle, up or down, while it’s going on people think it will last forever: Every time the market crashes, the consensus becomes that real estate won’t recover for decades. But the economy mends, the population grows, people start families, inflation builds up over the years, and repressed demand of those who want to own their own homes builds up. In the early eighties, mid-nineties and in 2012, after about 4 years of a recessionary housing market, this repressed demand jumps back in (or “explodes” might be a good description) and prices start to rise again. It’s not unusual for a big surge in values to occur in the first couple of years after a recovery begins.

Surprisingly consistent: Over the past 30+ years, the period between a recovery beginning and a bubble popping has run 5 to 7 years. We are currently about 2.5 years into the current recovery. Periods of market recession/doldrums following the popping of a bubble have typically lasted about 4 years. (The 2001 dotcom bubble and 9-11 crisis drop being the exception.) Generally speaking, within about 2 years of a new recovery commencing, previous peak values (i.e. those at the height of the previous bubble) are re-attained — among other reasons, there is the recapture of inflation during the doldrums years. In this current recovery, those homes hit hardest by the subprime loan crisis — typically housing at the lowest end of the price scale in the less affluent neighborhoods, which experienced by far the biggest bubble and biggest crash — may take significantly longer to re-attain peak values, but higher priced homes have already done so.

This does not mean that these recently recurring time periods necessarily reflect some natural law in housing market cycles, or that they can be relied upon to predict the future. Real estate markets can be affected by a bewildering number of economic, political and even natural-event factors that are exceedingly difficult to predict.

Mortgage Interest Rates since 1981

It’s much harder to decipher any cycles in 30-year mortgage rates over the same period. Despite the rate spike over the summer, rates remain very low by any historical measure, and this, of course, plays a huge role in the ongoing cost of homeownership.

Average_30-Year_Mortgage-Rates

******************************

In the 2 charts below tracking the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 5-County San Francisco Metro Area, the data points refer to home values as a percentage of those in January 2000. January 2000 equals 100 on the trend line: 66 means prices were 66% of those in January 2000; 175 signifies prices 75% higher.

1983 through 1995 

(After Recession) Boom, Decline, Doldrums

Case-Shiller_HT_1983-95

In the above chart, the country is just coming out of the late seventies, early eighties recession – huge inflation, stagnant economy (“stagflation”) and incredibly high interest rates (hitting 18%). As the economy recovered, the housing market started to appreciate and this surge in values began to accelerate deeper into the decade. Over 6 years, the market appreciated almost 100%. Finally, the eighties version of irrational exuberance — junk bonds, stock market swindles, the Savings & Loan implosion, as well as the late 1989 earthquake here in the Bay Area — ended the party.

Recession arrived, home prices sank, sales activity plunged and the market stayed basically flat for 4 to 5 years. Still, even after the decline, home values were 70% higher than when the boom began in 1984.

******************************

1996 to Present 

(After Recession) Boom, Bubble, Crash, Doldrums, Recovery

Case-Shiller_HT_1996-2011This next cycle looks similar but elongated. In 1996, after years of recession, the market suddenly took off and became frenzied — actually quite similar to what we’re experiencing today. The dotcom bubble pop and September 2001 attacks created a market hiccup, but then the subprime and refinance insanity, degraded loan underwriting standards, mortgage securitization, and claims that real estate never declines, super-charged a housing bubble. Overall, from 1996 to 2006/2008, the market went through an astounding period of appreciation. (Different areas hit peak values at times from 2006 to early 2008.) The air started to go out of some markets in 2007, but in September 2008 came the market crash.Across the country, home values fell 15% to 60%, peak to bottom, depending on the area and how badly it was affected by foreclosures — most of San Francisco got off comparatively lightly with declines in the 15% to 25% range. The least affluent areas got hammered hardest by distressed sales and price declines; the most affluent were typically least affected. Then the market stayed flat for about 4 years, albeit with a few short-term fluctuations. Supply and demand dynamics began to change in mid-2011, leading to the market recovery of 2012.

******************************

San Francisco from 2010 to 2014

A Strong Recovery


Median_SFD-Condo_by-Qtr_Short-term

Case-Shiller_High-Tier_2011

In 2011, San Francisco began to show signs of perking up. An improving economy, soaring rents, low interest rates and growing buyer demand coupled with a low inventory of listings began to put upward pressure on prices. In 2012, as in 1996, the market abruptly grew frenzied with competitive bidding. The city’s affluent neighborhoods led the recovery, and those considered particularly desirable by newly wealthy, high-tech workers showed the largest gains. However, virtually the entire city soon followed to experience similar rapid price appreciation.

San Francisco median home sales prices increased dramatically in 2012 and then accelerated further in the first half of 2013. San Francisco and the Bay Area are in the midst of a very dramatic recovery. Among other positive signs, new home construction is soaring once again, generally in the form of large new condo projects.

******************************

Different Bay Area Market Segments:
Different Bubbles, Crashes & Recoveries

1990 to Present

Case-Shiller_3-Tiers_Trends

Again, all numbers in the Case-Shiller charts above relate to a January 2000 value of 100: A reading of 182 signifies a home value 82% above that of January 2000. These 3 charts illustrate how different market segments in the 5-county SF metro area had bubbles, crashes and now recoveries of enormously different magnitudes, mostly depending on the impact of subprime lending. The lower the price range, the bigger the bubble and crash. The upper third of sales by price range (far right chart) was affected least by the subprime fiasco and has now basically recovered peak values of 2006-2007. In the city itself, where many of our home sales would constitute an ultra-high price segment, if Case-Shiller broke it out, many of our neighborhoods have risen to new peak values. The lowest price segment (far left chart), more prevalent in other counties, may not recover peak values for years. If one disregarded the different bubbles and crashes, home price appreciation for all three segments since January 2000 is almost exactly the same, in the range of 75% to 82%.

All data from sources deemed reliable,
but may contain errors and is subject to revision.All numbers are approximate and percentage changes will vary
depending on the exact begin and end dates used.

2200marketmarket

30 Days Later, Property Resells For $101,000 More

This is for those of you that just fought your way into contract, closed, and are now wondering, “Will I ever make my money back?”

A good friend and colleague of mine recently (just this March) represented her buyers in the purchase of this awesome top floor penthouse at 2200 Market #502. They closed for $949,000, in an all cash purchase.
2200 market street

2200 Market

The owner decided not to move in, and therefore wanted to sell. Recently listed again – this time for $899,000, 2200 Market #502 came back on only 30 days after the buyers closed on their purchase. Fast forward four days of marketing, it went into contract, and voila! It has sold $101,000 higher than it sold for just 30 days prior – and it was an all cash transaction.

Because I know most of you are doing the math on how much this buyer/seller made, probably around $30,000 after commissions, title/escrow fees, and transfer tax. Not bad for holding a property just 30 days.

How’s that for nuts?

-2200 Market #502 [Listing Detail]

SF_Zip-Income

San Francisco Demographics

A statistical breakdown by household income, education, homeownership, foreign-born population, household size, age and other criteria.

The below charts and table are based upon U.S. Census surveys from 2010 – 2013. Please note that zip codes often contain neighborhoods of widely different demographics. For example, 94115 includes Pacific Heights, one of the most affluent areas of the city, as well the Western Addition, which is much less affluent. A number of SF zip codes are like this and when mixing very different neighborhoods together, you often end up with statistics that don’t really apply to any of them. Zip codes are relatively blunt instruments for demographic investigation, but we still found the analysis to generate interesting, new insights into San Francisco, our ever-changing city.

Each chart illustrates the data for 10 to 12 SF zip codes. Below the charts is a complete table of all the data collected.

The neighborhoods associated with zip codes in the charts and table below are simply representative labels; other neighborhoods are contained within each zip code and many are divided between two or more zip codes.

Median Household Income 

Many factors impact this statistic: household size, level of education, percentages of homeowners vs. renters, whether the rental units are subject to rent control, median resident age, quality of housing, and cost-of-housing issues besides rent control. The South Beach-Yerba Buena zip code takes top place for median household income in San Francisco. Interestingly, it is at the bottom of the ranking for average household size. This zip code is dominated by newer condo projects, many of them at the top of the price scale and the rental units here, which make up over half the housing, are typically not under rent control. The second ranked zip code for income is quite different: the St. Francis Wood-Miraloma Park area has a completely different ambiance, very few condos or renters, older residents and bigger households. And number 3 is the Presidio Trust zip code with no homeowners, all renters but no rent control, and younger residents than either of the first two. All 3 of the top zip codes, however, have very high percentages of residents with bachelor’s, graduate and professional degrees.

SF_Zip-Income
Continue reading

Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? No – It’s Competitive Pricing

It’s happened again – I did a post Friday about the week’s overbids, and the comments and emails immediately come in, “Is this because the owners are listing for under market prices to crest bidding wars?” or “Why do you always highlight overbids? Aren’t these properties underpriced to begin with?” or “These properties are selling at market price, so why all the hype about overbids?” or “Can you post comps for each overbid you show?”

It’s nonstop, so let me elaborate. The answer is no, most of these overbids are not underpriced, and no, most listings are not intentionally underpriced*. Most properties are “competitively” priced. In a market where buyer activity drives property values up, we have learned (this isn’t San Francisco’s first crazy real estate rodeo) it is best to price a property lower than where you expect it will sell, get a lot of people through the door, and let the buyers set the new market price for any particular property. It is the best way to get the highest price for the seller. The truth is, in this market, we listing agents have run out of crystal balls and simply don’t know what true market value of a property is until you open it up to the hordes of buyers out there, and let them do their thing.

Additionally, buyers have become accustomed to looking at property priced lower than what they expect to pay in the end. So if you list higher than what they’re searching, you won’t get them through the door. For example, a buyer that is expecting to pay $1.2M on a property is likely looking at properties priced well below that (in the $800-995,000 range), knowing they have to bid over. It’s mean, and totally wrong, but it is the way it is. If you bring a property to market at the higher price you hope to achieve, you might get less buyers through the door, no offers in the end, and end up “chasing the market down”, which is not a fun thing.

The last three listings I had blew our (mine and my clients’) minds. We had expectations as to where they might sell, and even entertained the idea of an off market sale, but man were we glad we didn’t go that route. In each situation we received at least 10% more than what we originally thought was “market value”. Did we intentionally price it low? No. We really didn’t know exactly where it would end up selling, so we priced it competitively knowing the buyers will set the market price, and they did, and always do.

It’s frustrating being a buyer in this market, no doubt, but it’s stressful being a seller too. Selling a property for an exorbitant amount of money, regardless of how much over asking an offer might be, is not entirely relaxing. Appraisers strike the fear of God in sellers, because each new appraisal is at a level not yet seen. Hence the draw of accepting cash offers over those with loans. Miraculously appraisals keep coming in at value, but sometimes other things can derail the process too, and then what? Re-list? List at higher price? Are the same buyers still out there? Will you get that magical (through the roof) number again? Do you put the backup offer in (if they’re still there)? So many variables cause so much stress, but that’s another topic altogether.

The bottom line is the overbids that are highlighted here and make headlines are not so much about property being underpriced, as much as they are about the multitude of buyers out there willing to go to astronomical heights to realize their dream of owning property in San Francisco. Arm chair analytics are great for SocketSite, not so great for listing your home on the market, or trying to be the lucky buyer that wins in a market with far too little supply, and over-flowing demand.

So take these overbids with a grain of salt, and if MLS was smart, they’d add a category when reporting sales that will show us all the number of offers on any given property and any given overbid. That’s the real stat to focus on. For every property that gets sold there are usually 10-15 buyers (at least) that just lost and are moving on to the next one, and ready to go crazy big just to be done with it.

I hope that sheds a little light on the matter, and I hope it clears up the air around most of us real estate agents that are simply doing what it takes to get the seller the highest and best price for their property. It’s a bit of a game, but if you know how to play, you can win. As always, I’m here to help you buy and sell, because I do know the game, and I do know how to win.

*Some agents do intentionally underprice property, and some agents do use this as a way to brag about getting “$$$ over asking on my latest listing, I can do the same for you.” But those agents are the exception, not the rule, and you should avoid them.

-Last Week’s Top 10 Real Estate Overbids-San Francisco [theFrontSteps]

5725Diamond

This Week’s Top 10 Real Estate Overbids For San Francisco

It’s Friday, that means it’s time to check in with this week’s Top 10 Overbids. From the number 10 on the list, which came in at 32% over on 2nd Ave in the Lake District, to the number 1 on the list, which was just 65% over on Wisconsin in Potrero Hill, there is surely something good for you to peruse, ponder, and discuss among friends.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
940 Wisconsin St 942 2-4 Units 17 $1,099,000 $1,815,000 65.15%
336 Banks St 3/2.00/N/A 12 $998,000 $1,455,000 45.79%
1526 Revere Ave 3/2.00/N/A 15 $499,000 $725,000 45.29%
159 Belvedere St 161 2-4 Units 16 $1,600,000 $2,300,000 43.75%
1783 Noe St 2/1.00/N/A 24 $1,195,000 $1,705,000 42.68%
2323 47th Ave 4/2.00/N/A 32 $759,000 $1,025,000 35.05%
5725 Diamond Heights Blvd 4/3.00/N/A 8 $1,595,000 $2,139,250 34.12%
319 26th Ave 3/1.25/N/A 13 $1,045,000 $1,395,000 33.49%
2465 Harrison 2/1.00/ 25 $899,000 $1,200,000 33.48%
278 2nd Ave 2/1.00/N/A 52 $925,000 $1,230,000 32.97%

For details about any of these properties in particular, or to send your clients a list of the top 20 Overbids, Top 20 Underbids, and more, check out theGoods-SF.com.

[Update: Since the questions keep coming in, I answered 'em: Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? No - It's Competitive Pricing]

-Send Your Clients The Goods [theGoods-sf.com]
-Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? No – It’s Competitive Pricing [theFrontSteps]

Case-Shiller_High-Tier_2011

New Case-Shiller Shows Another Jump In Bay Area Home Prices – Up 37.5% Since 2012

The new Case-Shiller Index report for the 5-county San Francisco metro area, for March, is showing the same acceleration in home prices that buyers and sellers are experiencing in the market. The 2.4% increase from February to March 2014 is the largest since spring 2013, and further significant increases are expected in the Index reports for April and May when they come out in the next two months. Nationally, home prices saw only a .17% increase month over month, and Case-Shiller’s 20-City Index showed a .87% increase, so San Francisco and the Bay Area is strongly outperforming the rest of the country in home price appreciation.

Since the market recovery began in earnest in early 2012, northern Bay Area home prices have appreciated approximately 37.5% through March, according to Case-Shiller.

Case-Shiller_High-Tier_2011

Case-Shiller_from_1990

That’s amazing. Truly amazing.

Condo Trends

San Francisco Condominium Prices Increase 19% YOY

Below, and attached, you will find the recent condominium sales report from the Mark Company, one of the leaders in new development sales in San Francisco. They have a keen eye on all things new construction, high rise, and luxury that is popping up around town, and they are behind many of the sales offices you might be visiting. To say they know the high rise market in San Francisco would be an understatement. They are truly the front lines, so have a look.

APRIL 2014 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES INCREASE 19 PERCENT OVER PREVIOUS YEAR
The Mark Company Trend Sheet Tracks New Construction and Resale Market Trends

San Francisco – May 19, 2014 – San Francisco condominium prices rose 19 percent in April 2014 over the previous year, according to the Condominium Pricing Index released today.

The Mark Company Condominium Pricing Index for April was $1,115 per square foot, which is up 8 percent from March. New construction inventory was 45 percent lower than a year ago, and down 1 percent from the previous month with only 136 units now available.

‘The Condominium Pricing Index underwent by far its largest single month gain this year, building on an already strong market in San Francisco caused by low inventory and extremely strong demand,’ notes Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company. ‘However, a surge of new condominium projects scheduled to come online this year may indicate an easing of the city’s inventory crunch.’

The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet, represents the price per square foot of a new 10th floor, 1,000-square-foot condominium. It is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.

The Mark Company Penthouse Pricing Index, which applies the same methodology to a new 30th floor, 2,000-square-foot condominium, was $1,915 per square foot in April, up 19 percent year over year.

The condominium price per square foot was $927 for resales, up 7 percent from March 2014 and up 19 percent year over year, according to The Mark Company Trend Sheet for San Francisco. In addition, there were 307 condominium resales in San Francisco in April, 259 active condominium listings representing less than one month of inventory, and 155 pending condominium listings.”
markcotrendsheet

With what little inventory there is all across the city, versus what incredible demand remains, these numbers should come as no surprise.

As always, I’m here to help if you have any questions, or would like to buy or sell in any luxury high rise tower in San Francisco.

-The Mark Company Trend Sheet (pdf)

softstorymapimage

San Francisco “Soft Story” Retrofit Advisory – Some Details

I get a few questions from time to time about Earthquake retrofitting, liquefaction zones, when is the next quake going to be, and so on and so forth. The answer to all of those questions is the same, “I don’t have the answers, but there are other people who can help, and I’m happy to connect you.” In fact, I did a post a while back and it’s still the most visited post on this site, ever (actually, Sexiest Realtor Contest still holds that title), so if you’re on the hunt for more earthquake info, have a look: San Francisco Neighborhoods prone to Liquefaction and Earthquake Induced Landslides

San Francisco has introduced new law called the Mandatory Soft Story Retrofit Ordinance or Mandatory Wood Frame Retrofit Program, directly affecting wood-frame structures, containing five or more residential units, having two or more stories over a “soft” or “weak” story, and permitted for construction prior to January 1, 1978. In case you missed that:

  • Wood frame construction (Type V), and
  • Application of permit for original construction was prior to January 1, 1978, and
  • Five or more residential units, and
  • Two or more stories over a basement or underfloor area that has any portion extending above grade, and
  • A soft story condition that has not been seismically strengthened to the standards set forth in the ordinance.
  • So where can you get a list and find out if you, or the building you’re looking to buy is on it? According to the City and County of San Francisco website

    There is currently NO, and has never been an official list of “unsafe” properties. Until a licensed design professional has done a building assessment, there is no such information on any specific building.

    However, there is a list, the “City believes, to the best of our knowledge, to be within the scope of the Mandatory Seismic Retrofit Ordinance.”, and that list can be found here www.sfdbi.org/softstory, or more specifically on this updated spreadsheet of addresses located here: Soft Story Noticing Pool
    and there is this map to help you ballpark your building:
    softstorymapimage
    Okay, so how does this apply to you, the buyer or seller of San Francisco real estate?

    Simply put, when you purchase a property that might fit this bill, or have a property you plan to sell (disclose, disclose, disclose) expect to receive the following notice as part of the San Francisco Association of Realtors cover your ass program, and keep in mind, there may be some serious expenses headed your way if your building falls under the above mentioned criteria:
    Continue reading

    2224jackson

    Pacific Heights Property Fetches $1,706,000 Over Asking

    You read that correctly, 2224 Jackson Street, a Pacific Heights trophy three unit property listed at $2,095,000, just knocked out last week’s stunner at 2514 Gough (Sold $1.4M over), to take the cake for most insane insanity ever in real estate anywhere, ever, by selling for $1,706,000 over asking price, or a grand total of $3,801,000. It is a vacant multi unit property in one of the best areas of town, but still – that’s nuts.

    That was the winner, but there were more. Second place was a paltry $600,000 over asking- that one got kicked off the list today. See the top 10 Overbids list below.

    Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
    2224 Jackson St 2-4 Units 13 $2,095,000 $3,801,000 81.43%
    1783 Noe St 2/1.00/N/A 24 $1,195,000 $1,705,000 42.68%
    390 Franconia St 2/1.00/N/A 6 $895,000 $1,262,375 41.05%
    239 Judah St 3/2.00/N/A 27 $1,199,000 $1,661,000 38.53%
    2200 Lyon St 3/2.50/N/A 19 $2,100,000 $2,900,000 38.10%
    141 2nd Ave 3/3.50/N/A 9 $1,900,000 $2,600,000 36.84%
    3700 Folsom St 2/2.00/N/A 12 $1,049,000 $1,425,000 35.84%
    79 Everson St 3/2.50/N/A 24 $1,195,000 $1,610,000 34.73%
    5725 Diamond Heights Blvd 4/3.00/N/A 8 $1,595,000 $2,139,250 34.12%
    727 35th Ave 5/4.50/N/A 13 $1,525,000 $2,025,000 32.79%

    I need a drink. You?

    Representing Buyers & Sellers Of Residential Real Estate In San Francisco, Marin, & Palo Alto – Follow/Connect @theFrontSteps

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