US Mortgage Crisis Rivals S&L Meltdown
Make sure you get to the very end of that scare the sh*t out of us article to read this:
In spite of the gloom, the economy may avoid recession. Housing comprises a much smaller share of the economy than business investment, which dragged the U.S. into recession in 2001. Also, the rest of the world is stronger than in 2001, boosting U.S. exports. For the entire U.S. economy to contract would probably require a broad decline in consumer spending, which hasn’t happened since 1991.
And, while financial problems are serious, they aren’t — at least yet — on a par with those of the 1980s, when many major banks would have been insolvent had they valued their Third World loans accurately. There is, indeed, a possibility that the opacity of today’s mortgage securities means markets may be factoring in far larger losses than will actually occur. Though the Fed is still worried about inflation, it has plenty of room to cushion the economy with additional interest-rate cuts.
–US Mortgage Crisis Rivals S&L Meltdown [The Wall Street Journal]