Misha Weidman is back and he brings us this little nugget (also posted on his site):
…and this quote to go along with it:
Until June 2008, condo and home prices were in lock-step in terms of price appreciation and decline. Thereafter, homes fell first and further. In March 2009, the delta between condos and home prices was a whopping 13%. Since then, however, home prices have recovered smartly: as of June, homes are about 4.5% further off their all-time highs than condos.
What does this all mean? First of all, I wouldn’t take too much consolation just yet in the upward spike in both condo and home prices since the beginning of the year. If you take a look at the chart, this happens every Jan/Feb when people start buying out of the winter doldrums. I wouldn’t predict a bottom until we see what happens this winter.
Still, the current delta of only $100,000 between median condo and median home prices seems rather small. If people are just begging to know what the historical average is, let me know and I’ll find out.
Thank you! And we’d bet there are a few that would love a little historical average.
This is most likely a case of median prices being distorted by the mix. Increasing median prices are most likely a sign of foreclosure activity moving to more upscale neighborhoods.
Don’t trust median prices until sales volume is back to normal levels.
jason – you’re talking about the 3 $3M homes in NoeValley which were NOT foreclosures?
activity in the higher end does exist – and talking to people, there are still MILLIONS in cash burning pockets in the city – waiting not for the right price, but for the so-rare right property…. that doesn’t sound anything like high end foreclosure to me.
from looking at numbers, listings and addresses.. my best guess is that higher end foreclosure are passé – some homes were among the first ones to get hit – with a few 5M in the marina – bought at the time as gambles/investments. Very different from the “honest” foreclosure of someone who put his/her hard-earned money, and tried to do everything possible for the past year to avoid foreclosure and losing it all.
What would be a good comp is a heat map with the ratio credit card debt per mortgage amount.
When you reach – say – 5% of your mortgage in credit card debt – you’ll foreclose in – say – less than 3 months ((note: random numbers I picked for the example). The problem now is that credit cards companies are getting meaner, and THEY are spinning the foreclosure wheel.