Time out for the Adrian Ruiz Memorial Fundraiser

We’re simply too busy at the moment working with clients, changing up the sfnewsletter, living life, and helping organize and spread the word about the Adrian Ruiz Memorial Fundraiser. We have no time for our beloved theFrontSteps today. Please follow that link or click on the photo below to see all the great things San Francisco, and all the great people around us, have donated. It’s truly unbelievable.

See you next week!

Adrian Ruiz Memorial Fundraiser

Stats & Numbers: 2-4 Unit April ’07 versus April ’08

From Garrett, as always, with love:

District Map (PDF)

2-4 Units
District 1 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 7 8
Median Selling Price 1,450,000 1,380,000
Average DOM 95 90
District 2 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 8 7
Median Selling Price 1,037,500 1,200,000
Average DOM 47 61
District 3 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 1 0
Median Selling Price 800,000
Average DOM 26
District 4 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 0 1
Median Selling Price 1,072,500
Average DOM 57
District 5 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 11 9
Median Selling Price 1,675,000 1,500,000
Average DOM 55 35
District 6 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 6 2
Median Selling Price 1,612,500 1,250,000
Average DOM 55 49
District 7 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 2 2
Median Selling Price 1,685,000 1,875,000
Average DOM 185 15
District 8 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 1 1
Median Selling Price 600,000 1,520,000
Average DOM 32 10
District 9 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 7 3
Median Selling Price 1,160,000 978,000
Average DOM 126 70
District 10 Apr-07 Apr-08
Number of Sales 1 2
Median Selling Price 770,000 742,500
Average DOM 83 54

Data Provided by SFAR

Reader Reports: Bay Area attracts top talent and money

From a reader:

Best article of what is really going on in SF…

We have to agree that it is a very good example of the caliber of intellect, talent, and passion we find in San Francisco that will certainly help San Francisco weather this storm; however, it is not the entire picture. A good read regardless.

Seven Year Rich [San Francisco Magazine]

Battle Royale: Tokyo or San Francisco if you had to choose

Since we’re on the subject…Tokyo or San Francisco if you had to choose and why…please. ;-)

We know nothing about Tokyo, and have never been, so should we decide to take a trip there, what can we expect, and what should we avoid. Of course, since this is a real estate blog, we’d also love to know what our money can(not) buy.

San Francisco or New York City, if you had to choose [theFrontSteps, Battle Royale]

San Francisco or Los Angeles, if you had to choose [theFrontSteps, Battle Royale]

Tokyo Photo Credit

Chart challenge: San Francisco mimics Japanese land value decline (sort of)

Accepting our recent challenge to “show us a legitimate graph of home values for San Francisco, or the Bay Area, or California, or the Nation, hell you might as well make it the world for that matter, that looks like [the declining chart on this post]”, Paul G steps up to the plate with this chart and explanation below:

You did open the chart challenge up to the world so I thought I’d submit this one. I can’t upload images to your web-site so I’m emailing it to you. Feel free to post, if you want.

The green line represents the cost of residential land in six major urban centers in Japan since 1955. The blue line represents San Francisco prices using the Case-Shiller index, but, in order to make the peaks coincide, I’ve moved all SF values back 15 years.

No, I don’t think San Francisco prices are going to follow the same trajectory down for many reasons (inflation, the 30-year run-up in Tokyo compared with the 10-year run-up here) but it’s still an interesting graph.



Thanks for the graph! Very interesting to say the least.

Chart Fun: Declining Real Estate Values [theFrontSteps]

San Francisco or New York City, if you had to choose [theFrontSteps, Battle Royale]

Chart fun: Declining Real Estate Values

Recently on a few blogs around town, there was a mention of the Prestige Home Index, and there was (is) continually a hullabaloo about declining home values in California and the nation. Here’s the graph:

Forget for a minute the exact parameters of this graph and assume it is an average depiction of home price increases since 1985 (basically don’t look at the prices on the left). You have to agree, you can pretty much pick your price range and it is a decent indicator of home values, in general, in California. (For California Median Prices since 1968, you’ll see these charts match up pretty well.)

Now the fun part…can someone please show us a legitimate graph of home values for San Francisco, or the Bay Area, or California, or the Nation, hell you might as well make it the world for that matter, that looks like this?

Here’s a hint: Ask your parents or grandparents what they paid for their first home.

About the Prestige Home Index [FirstRepublic.com]

Crime on the rise in…wait…Pacific Heights?

In response to our recent post about rising crime in Bernal Heights, a reader forwards this:

“Hey Alex,

I live in Pacific Heights and belong to a neighborhood association. Yesterday I received this email from a neighbor who is passing along a warning about a robbery in our neighborhood. It happened last weekend. So I guess it’s not just Bernal Heights that is having problems with recent increase in crime. What gives??


Fwd email:

At 11:30pm on Saturday, April 26th I was walking home from

dinner with my husband and my father. It was a very warm night and we could

not get a taxi from Pres a vis in the Presidio. As we approached Green

Street while walking up Divisadero, two young men wearing bright red

bandanas that covered their faces and carrying guns told me to give them my

purse. I did and they ran away – west on Green Street.

We promptly called the police who arrived within minutes. I

am mentioning this to the group because I have received two phone calls from

the police since the incident. Yesterday when they phoned they informed me

that they still had not arrested the guys, but in fact they had struck

several more times, that they know of, along Divisadero Street. One time

they even approached two men who were walking together, so it’s not just

women by themselves or in a group that are the target.

Both times the police called it was to ask if I could

identify the criminals in a lineup. Because the bandanas covered their

faces and they were wearing hats (along with baggy jeans and dark

sweatshirts) I could not be certain of their identities. The police

officers told me that the robberies are being committed by young members of

a Hispanic gang from South San Francisco. They drive down the street,

selecting potential victims, and then plan the attack a few blocks ahead and

escape again in their car parked nearby.

Please be careful walking at night. I was only 4 doors down

from my house when this occurred.

The police officer I spoke to last night assured me he would

call and let me know if/when they make an arrest.

Darnit, we’re going to have to find a cool video to brighten this Friday! And does this also beg the question, will this make Pacific Heights real estate prices go bust?

Weekly Fluj: Inventory, is there a lot of it?

Lots of people yapping on and on about how San Francisco listing inventory is through the roof, sales volume is in the toilet, and both median and average home prices have plummeted, but the Fluj says:

Seemingly the perception is that there is a lot of inventory, but is there, really? And as for prices, come on now!

Discuss, debate, have fun.

…and kicking it off, we’ll go ahead and show you Fluj’s first comment in the thread to get you going:

Right, so, “Inventory.”

Seemingly the conventional wisdom is that there is a lot of it. Why the disparity between what buyers in the field are actually excperiencing and the media/blogs then?

I did a search for available properties. I used a metric that I believe to be extremely common for San Franciscans. This is a search for a couple or a small family who hope to buy something with room to grow into.

The parameters are: 750K to $1.205M, 3 brs, 2 bas, 1 car parking. I limited the search zones to only generally safe(r) areas. Essentially I included everthing except Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, and Oceanview, all of 9 save Bernal and Potrero Hill, and all of 10.

I turned up 82 properties.

1. Of the 8 Richmond properties, only one was east of Funston, and it is a cosmetic fixer on 7th Ave for 899K. (On the market for 7 days, offers Tuesday, you best to hurry if interested IMO)

2. Twenty-seven are in the central or outer Sunset.

3. For areas 3, the Arch st. listing appears to be a nice little Merced Heights home for 559 a foot. Many searchers will not entertain areas 3.

4. For areas 4, if they are not on a very busy street or a fixer, only Forest Knoll, and Miraloma Park areas 4-D and 4-H have properties for 550-600 a foot. Like 3, many buyers will not entertain areas 4 as it is not particularly central.

5. Surprisingly, for areas 5, there are only two Glen Park listings. In Noe, there is only 4120 22nd, a permitted fixer in need of at least 600K in capital. In Ashbury Terrace, only one cosmetic fixer I know to have received two offers already. And there is one large fixer property up on Grand View — and it doesn’t have any views.

6. There was nothing in 6. This was surprising.

7-8. Nothing here. Not surprising.

9. Eleven are in Bernal Heights and will not appear in the search perameters of many groups. Two in Potrero Hill. The Wisconsin listing is a total fixer on a corner with very little southern exposure and an entrenched tenant. The Rhode Island property at $1.195M and 663 a foot appears to be a decent deal for North Slope.

So is that a lot of inventory? I really don’t think it is.

Share photos! Flickr tag: “theFrontSteps”

Not like I don’t have enough to do these days, but last night I started wandering the web and decided to add a Flickr application to this here blog. So…if you want to share some photos with all of us, simply tag them “theFrontSteps” and they should appear in our Flickr bar on the right. You can also add them to theFrontSteps’ Flickr Pool by joining theFrontSteps group.

“theFrontSteps” [Flickr tag]

theFrontSteps’ Flickr Pool [Flickr Pool]