Manhattan is a bit like San Francisco on steroids

From our reader, “G.B.” who says, “I thought you might be interested in this article, since Manhattan is a bit like San Francisco on steroids:”

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. housing market may be a seller’s nightmare but Manhattan’s was a dream in the fourth quarter as foreign buyers pushed up demand while supply stayed tight, sending the average sales price to a record high.

“Foreign demand has been a big part of the story,” said Jonathan Miller, director of research at Radar Logic and author of Prudential’s quarterly overview reports, but foreigners are not permitted to buy cooperatives.

“In a lot of new development we’ve seen significant activity from domestic purchasers as well,” Miller added.

“Somebody who’s worried about their bonus is going to be hesitant to buy,” Heym said. “Somebody who’s worried about losing their job is going to be incredibly hesitant to buy.”

But any real estate effect probably won’t show up until the second half of the year, he said.

You are right. We are interested in it, and look forward to what 2008 will bring. More doom and gloom, or a nice steady market?

Our predictions are for a nice healthy market fueled by pent up demand, low inventory, and plenty of qualified buyers, who are now faced with even less inventory than before.

We couldn’t get the link to the article to be here without some weird phantom video clip, so we just pasted the entire article below…totally uncool, but whatru gonna do? The article is from Yahoo! News.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. housing market may be a seller’s nightmare but Manhattan’s was a dream in the fourth quarter as foreign buyers pushed up demand while supply stayed tight, sending the average sales price to a record high.

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Two swanky condominium projects, The Plaza and 15 Central Park West, helped propel the average price of a Manhattan apartment to a record $1,439,909, up 17.6 percent from a year earlier and 5.1 percent from the third quarter, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview.

“Foreign demand has been a big part of the story,” said Jonathan Miller, director of research at Radar Logic and author of Prudential’s quarterly overview reports, but foreigners are not permitted to buy cooperatives.

“In a lot of new development we’ve seen significant activity from domestic purchasers as well,” Miller added.

The average price per square foot of $1,180 set a record, up 18.2 percent from a year earlier and 3.1 percent from the prior quarter, according to the Prudential report.

The median price — the midway point between the highest and lowest sales prices — rose to $850,000, up 6.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the Prudential report.

The average sales price of a U.S. home overall declined last year. Prospective buyers in many U.S. markets have found prices still too high, and stiffer mortgage requirements arising out of the subprime crisis have also sidelined them.

The overall market suffers from a 10.3-month overhang of supply of homes for sale.

But supply shrank in Manhattan.

The number of apartments for sale fell 13.5 percent to 5,133, according to the Prudential report, while the number of sales rose 3.2 percent to 2,518 units.

According to Terra Holdings, sales prices at The Plaza, a former luxury hotel, and 15 Central Park West averaged nearly $7 million in the fourth quarter, helping to fuel a 51 percent increase in the average price of a Manhattan condominium.

Stripping out The Plaza and 15 Central Park West, the average selling price would have been $1.37 million, a 12 percent rise over the 2006 fourth quarter’s $1,223,160, said Terra Holdings, the parent company of residential brokerages Halstead Property and Brown Harris Stevens.

Prices for condominiums, which usually make up half of new sales, rose 51 percent in the fourth quarter to a record $1,851,709, according to Terra Holdings. The average sales price of a cooperative apartment rose 21 percent to a record $1,074,369 in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.

The average sales price for all Manhattan apartments rose 34 percent to a record $1,430,514 in the fourth quarter, while the median price was up 14 percent to a record $828,000, according to Terra.

Figures from the Terra and Prudential reports differ because of the different times at which the organizations receive notice and prices of closed sales.

Gregory Heym of Terra Holdings said the Manhattan apartment market had not yet felt downward pressure from cuts in bonuses on Wall Street, where jobs are on the line as big investment banks take huge write-downs due to the subprime crisis.

“Somebody who’s worried about their bonus is going to be hesitant to buy,” Heym said. “Somebody who’s worried about losing their job is going to be incredibly hesitant to buy.”

But any real estate effect probably won’t show up until the second half of the year, he said.

(Editing by Gary Hill)

7 thoughts on “Manhattan is a bit like San Francisco on steroids

  1. You know, I really love reading this site as well as, um, let’s call him the “socket dude”. You read both though and you’d think that we live in two different cities on opposite sides of the planet… The other guys linked to this article:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/30/realestate/30cov.html

    In summary, prices force people out of Manhattan. Demand falls in the City and shifts the demand curve, etc. Implication: tanking areas outside SF are going to force prices down in our fair city.

    Today, two stories today about continued rising prices in Manhattan, in addition to the Reuters one above. One in the Journal and one in Business Week:

    http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2008/01/manhattan_apart.html

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2008/01/03/manhattan-prices-up-despite-slight-sales-dip/

    Implication here: people like to live in places like SF and NYC. And, some of those people are pretty rich so they keep paying big bucks. No mention of these three articles on the other site…

    In fairness, I like both sites but it’s funny to me which NYC stories got picked up by which site.

    [Editor’s note: You’ve figured out our secret sauce, and we hate to duplicate what everyone reads everywhere else.]

  2. None of those gloom and doomers on Socketsite are going to stick around and admit error come spring. Many, many parts (most?) of the country have been getting clobbered for over two years now. We’re doing just fine here, you know? The socketsite bears area always on about the Sunset getting hit and whatnot. It hasn’t. I just searched the Outher Sunset. There were six fewer SFR sales in 2007 than 2006, and guess what? Higher median. It’s pretty hard to stomach at times. I don’t know why I keep going there. I’m like the old guys in the balcony on the Muppet Show.

  3. Two things (other than the obvious quality of life) will soon pressure people to move out of the suburbs and into San Francisco. First, increasing gas prices. Second, the soon-to-be water shortages.

  4. Adam turns 40 this year and rents in Pacific Heights for around $3,000/month. If I was him, I would be frustrated as hell, and use my blog as an outlet to vent passive aggressively. He lives in one of the best neighborhoods in SF, and prices have continued higher. I’d go berzerk, after renting for 18 years.

  5. “Adam turns 40 this year and rents in Pacific Heights for around $3,000/month. If I was him, I would be frustrated as hell, and use my blog as an outlet to vent passive aggressively.”

    For the love of god, some of the posters here sound like Rush Limbaugh talking about Hilary Clinton. It is unbecoming, unprofessional, and completely expected if not tolerated from jr high schoolers.

    Alex — you asked what readers would like to see more and less of in The Front Steps in a previous post. Here’s my list: Less smug, angst-ridden windbaggery from those who don’t share their views and more interesting discussion about – you know – San Francisco real estate.

    I read a number of RE blogs and enjoy differing points of view but the smack-talk – especially when it’s about *one* guy is tiresome.

    [Editor’s note: Totally agree, but I see a lot of things all of you don’t that totally support angst towards that site, so i let some of it slide. If our readers want to voice their opinion, so be it. You’re welcome to do the same, and I thank you for your advice.]

  6. Mikey – It’s not so much smack talk, it’s more like empathy and understanding of Alex’s pain. He’s evened out a little bit and stopped deleting a lot of posts that went contrary to his bearish views because he’s making money from the ads, and can’t deny the many areas in SF continue to hold up well. I know who Adam is, and trust me, he loves to relish in the misery of others with his posts. I understand his frustration, and just trying to be empathetic.

    Yes, we all know District 10, and many condos are hurting due to the slowdown/oversupply. Is this a surprise? I went to an 2/2 condo open house today to check comps, as I plan on raising my rent by around $250 (7%) this year, and the place was PACKED. I’m surprised b/c there was no parking, and it was raining cats and dogs this morning. The place is in Presidio Heights. It would be beneficial for renters and homeowners alike if many of the people who want to buy in SF, actually move out and live in Vallejo, Antioch, Bay View, Excelsior etc. You’ll have less congestion, and rental competition, and better deals.

    RSC

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