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Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Outer Parkside

It had to be the lion blanket, because apparently the original $1,099,000 list price wasn’t enough to entice the frenzy. So what happened? Price reduced to $995,000, and look at that…sold for $1,225,000. In case you missed that, that’s higher than the previous list price two short months prior, at which this home was unable to find a buyer. Some things in life simply make no sense.

Anyhow, here are the Top 10 Overbids for the past week in San Francisco

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2275 47th Avenue 4/2.50/N/A 88 $995,000 $1,225,000 23.12%
1655 48th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 14 $629,000 $762,000 21.14%
471 23rd Avenue 2/1.00/6 33 $688,000 $810,000 17.73%
988 Fulton Street 1/1.00/326 60 $474,000 $555,000 17.09%
1055 Mason Street N/A/N/A/19 18 $5,000,000 $5,800,000 16.00%
149 Laidley 3/2.00/N/A 25 $1,695,000 $1,950,000 15.04%
2908 Fulton Street 2914 2-4 Units 49 $1,290,000 $1,473,000 14.19%
448 Gold Mine Drive 4/3.00/N/A 12 $1,395,000 $1,558,000 11.68%
2130 12th Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 52 $899,000 $1,000,000 11.23%
30 Otsego Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,199,000 $1,300,000 8.42%

Have a great weekend!

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$2,000,000 Under Asking In Pacific Heights…Actually $1,925,000 But Who’s Counting

If that $200,000 underbid from a few weeks ago seems like a good deal to you, have a look at this seven bedroom Pacific Heights Single Family home at 2660 Scott (you must click that link…the pictures are amazing), which was listed in September at $15,000,000 and closed last week at $13,075,000. Almost $2,000,000 under asking.
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Considering the home only last sold in 2004 for just shy of $6,000,000 I’d say the sellers are pretty thrilled (keeping in mind we don’t know how much they sunk into it, of course). IMHO the home was worth every penny of $15,000,000, so the buyers should be thrilled too. It’s a trophy home, and I’m totally jealous, as should be all of you.
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As for the rest of our weekly underbids. Here you go…the top 10 Underbids of the week.

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2660 Scott Street 7/7/6 $15,000,000 $13,075,000 -12.83 %
814-816 Cole 2-4 Units $1,990,000 $1,775,000 -10.80 %
1374 Union Street 3/3.5/2 $3,350,000 $3,000,000 -10.45 %
184 London Street 3/1/0 $574,000 $520,000 -9.41 %
365 Magellan Avenue 5/3.5/2 $2,520,000 $2,350,000 -6.75 %
601 Van Ness Avenue 2/2/1 $879,000 $825,000 -6.14 %
595 Waller Street 3/2/0 $1,300,000 $1,225,000 -5.77 %
2445 Polk Street 2/2/1 $1,450,000 $1,371,150 -5.44 %
3515 Washington Street 2/2/2 $3,995,000 $3,800,000 -4.88 %
580 Prentiss Street 2/1/1 $998,000 $950,000 -4.81 %

As always, I share all of this wonderful data with you in real time on several sources:
1. The Goods
2. sfnewsletter (sign up at sfnewsletter.com)
3. theFrontSteps.com

Get this stuff bookmarked, sign up to receive via email, follow me on Facebook, Twitter @theFrontSteps, LinkedIn. Do what you gotta do to get yourself educated on our market.

And have a great day.

2660 Scott, Property Detail Page

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San Francisco | December 2015 Real Estate Market Update

San Francisco Real Estate Report, December 2015 Market Update.
– Heading into the Holiday Slowdown after an Interesting Autumn Market
– Median home prices, over-bidding, housing affordability, luxury home sales, the new-home construction pipeline, and comparing the Shanghai and S&P 500 stock indices

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Median sales prices in October and November jumped back up to levels similar to the spring peak selling season. It’s important to remember that median prices are not a perfect reflection of changes in fair market value: They often fluctuate due to seasonal inventory and buyer-profile trends, as well as issues such as an influx of new-construction listings. It is the longer-term trend that is most meaningful – however we can say with confidence that there was clearly no significant “crash” in prices this past autumn.

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One indication of the heat of the market is the extent to which sales prices are bid up over asking prices. As is not untypical, the market becomes less competitive in November as it heads into the winter holidays. Still, an average sales price 6% over asking price would be considered crazy-hot in any other market in the country (though one also has to adjust for the fact that serious underpricing has become a not uncommon listing strategy in the SF market).

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This chart based on S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index data illustrates the seasonality of home price appreciation in the past 4 years: surging in our feverish spring selling seasons, and then generally plateauing through the rest of the year. Note that Case-Shiller looks at home prices in a totally different way than median sales price trends, and probably reflects changes in fair market value more accurately. Case-Shiller Index numbers refer back to a January 2000 value of 100, thus the current Index reading for higher-priced Bay Area homes of 217 signifies home prices 117% above January 2000.

As we enter the winter holiday market slowdown, the next real indication of the direction of the market will come in the first quarter of 2016. Will spring 2016 repeat the overheated, high demand/ low supply frenzies of previous springs or has the market finally reached a longer term plateau or even an affordability inflection point? We shall soon know more.

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In 2015 YTD, the dominant price segment for home sales in San Francisco was $1,000,000 to $1,499,000. As seen in the first chart above, the median sales prices for both condos and houses fall within this range. Note the change from just two years ago.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Market

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The high-end home market is the most seasonal segment in the city (as well as the most sensitive to sudden, large, negative movements in the financial markets). Market activity starts to plunge in November, hits its nadir in December, begins to pick up in the first quarter and then usually hits its peak in spring. Much of the center of gravity in the luxury market has been shifting in recent years from the city’s prestige northern neighborhoods to other districts of the city, such as the greater Noe Valley area and the South Beach/Yerba Buena district. This is not to say that the northern districts are not still both very expensive and considered highly desirable, and the greater Pacific Heights area still dominates the market for the most expensive houses in the city, i.e. those selling for $5m and more.

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After the semi-hysteria – already half forgotten – that erupted in late August and September regarding the Chinese stock market and its impact on the U.S. stock market and economy, and possibly the Bay Area housing market, we thought it interesting to take a look back at how it has played out so far.

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It is widely expected that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, probably by some minimal increment, but for the time being, as of the first week of December, rates have remained below 4%.

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In November, we issued two mini-reports, one on Bay Area housing affordability and another on San Francisco new housing construction. Below are the featured charts:

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I’ll continue to keep an eye on things for you, if you continue to read it.

Expect much lighter than usual blogging for the rest of the year, and don’t be surprised if theFrontSteps goes under construction.

Contact me today for a free property valuation, or to get you set up on my buyer system.

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Mission To Millennium | SF’s Top 10 Underbids of the Week

The top underbid of the week goes to an Outer Mission single family home that (dare we say) needs a bit of work. Listed for $699,000 and sold for $575,000 after 62 days on the market. According to our data from last week, single family homes continue to take up the majority of the top 10 underbid slots: 50% single family homes, 30% multi-units, and 20% condo.

As we get into the winter months, we are seeing luxury homes cooling down but affordable homes remaining competitive. One other notable Underbid is this wonderful Millennium Tower residence with million dollar water and landmark views on both sides of the Bay. Listed at $4.588M and sold for $4.18M after 122 days. Still a win, IMO.

As for the rest, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2220 Cayuga Avenue 1/1/1 $699,000 $575,000 -17.74 %
161-165 Cook Street 2-4 Units $2,395,000 $2,150,000 -10.23 %
2287 16th Avenue 4/2/2 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 -9.94 %
18 Kronquist Court 4/2/1 $1,899,000 $1,725,000 -9.16 %
301 Mission Street #49D 2/3/2 $4,588,000 $4,180,000 -8.89 %
78 Gladys Street 3/2/0 $1,195,000 $1,100,000 -7.95 %
1437 47th Avenue 1437A 2-4 Units $1,275,000 $1,175,000 -7.84 %
2829 Pierce Street 2831 2-4 Units $2,970,000 $2,750,000 -7.41 %
3260 Baker Street 3/2/2 $2,999,000 $2,800,000 -6.64 %
2040 Franklin Street #506 0/1/1 $575,000 $540,000 -6.09 %

As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market, your home, homes in your area, or real estate referrals around the world, I am here to help. Just give me a shout by choosing any of the “contact” options all over this site.

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August Case-Shiller Index | San Francisco Bay Area

The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for August was just released on Tuesday. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations are common and not particularly meaningful until substantiated by a longer-term trend.

Since Case-Shiller’s SF Metro Area covers 5 counties, it should be noted that not all the markets within the Area move in lockstep: activity and appreciation rates can vary significantly.

As is clearly illustrated below, for the past 4 years, spring has been the big driver of home-price appreciation. Prices generally plateau in subsequent seasons until the next spring arrives. For the past couple years, the spring selling season has started very early, in late January or early February, due to the incredible weather we’ve had in those months. El Niňo, if it arrives, might move the spring pick-up in sales back to mid-March/early April in 2016.

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This second chart illustrates the huge burst in prices this past spring. It’s not unusual for the market to slump a little during the summer holidays, almost in exhaustion after the spring frenzy. We’ll have more autumn statistics soon when October’s MLS data comes in, but Paragon has been experiencing its most active autumn selling season in its history in 2015.

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And here are 3 longer-term charts for each of the 3 Case-Shiller price tiers for the 5-county San Francisco metro statistical area. As can be seen, the different price tiers had bubbles and crashes of radically different magnitudes in 2006 – 2009, but as far as total appreciation since the year 2000, all of them display very similar appreciation rates.

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That ought to do it for your data craving for a while. You might consider following this blog via email (link below) or get on the Twitter train @theFrontSteps, so you don’t miss a beat of San Francisco Real Estate.

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#2 Maximum Overbid Of The Week, Because The #1 Is Too Common

I’m going to go ahead and skip the #1 at 38 Yukon, because it’s…well…just another $1200 per square foot sale of a small condo in a hot neighborhood. Instead, have a look at the #2 spot, which goes to 35 Rolph in Crocker Amazon:

A 1350 square foot, two bed, one bath home in the part of town where priced out buyers have been going for years. Why I like this house? Because it has not been chopped up, has a ton of original detailing, has amazing expansion and upgrade potential, and frankly was snagged for a great price. The fact that is was a major overbid (41.76% over to be exact) does not mean the buyer overpaid, it means the agent underpriced (as is usually the case). Regardless, there was certainly competition to get it, so Kudos to the buyers. You got a great house!

Which one of you neighbors will be next to cash in..?

As for the rest, here you go:

The Top 10 Overbids In San Francisco:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
38 Yukon Street 2/1.00/ 19 $949,000 $1,350,000 42.26%
35 Rolph Street 2/1.00/N/A 15 $649,000 $920,000 41.76%
1472 18th Avenue 2/2.50/ 42 $899,000 $1,225,000 36.26%
2055 35th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 11 $895,000 $1,200,000 34.08%
1751 45th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 26 $899,000 $1,200,000 33.48%
1470 18th Avenue 2/2.50/ 42 $959,000 $1,275,000 32.95%
48 Sanchez Street 3/1.50/ 14 $1,295,000 $1,651,000 27.49%
33 Vandewater Street 1/1.00/104 12 $599,000 $760,000 26.88%
242 San Jose Avenue 4/2.50/N/A 10 $2,995,000 $3,800,000 26.88%
509 Central Avenue 2/1.00/ 8 $975,000 $1,225,000 25.64%

Have a great weekend! Check back next week for more, Monday for the Underbids, and stop by my mid century single family home in Golden Gate Heights at 1972 11th Ave, which will be open Sunday from 1-4pm. Check out 1177 California #304, which is still available too.

Curious about the most recent sales in San Francisco citywide? Curiosity satisfied.

2317 Webster

Maximum Overbids Step Aside…Meet The Underbids

For nearly a decade (maybe more), I’ve blogged about overbids. It’s tiring. It’s time for something new. Last week I mentioned condo prices dropping 3% from August to September, and I’m not saying the market is crashing, but you should be aware that not EVERYTHING sells over asking, including the oh-so-rare single-family home.

That’s right, out of the top 10 underbids of the week, 7 are single-family homes. A Pacific Heights home listed at $3,250,000 and sold for $2,825,000 a whopping 40 days later. What a score, and what an amazingly beautiful property in an awesome location. I’m jealous.

Address Type BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2317 Webster Street Single-Family Homes 4/2.5/3 $3,250,000 $2,825,000 -13.08 % 239 Broad Street Single-Family Homes 0/1/0 $899,000 $800,000 -11.01 % 100 Delano Avenue Single-Family Homes 6/3/3 $1,300,000 $1,160,000 -10.77 % 651 4th Avenue 653 2-4 Units N/A $1,500,000 $1,400,000 -6.67 % 3808 Clay Street Single-Family Homes 4/2.5/2 $4,500,000 $4,200,000 -6.67 % 601 4th Street Condo/Coop/TIC/Loft 1/1/1 $1,499,000 $1,400,000 -6.60 % 929 Cayuga Avenue Single-Family Homes 5/4/3 $1,105,000 $1,035,000 -6.33 % 2829 Green Street Single-Family Homes 5/5.5/2 $9,600,000 $9,000,000 -6.25 % 301 Mission Street Condo/Coop/TIC/Loft 2/3/1 $4,495,000 $4,250,000 -5.45 % 2676 Great Highway Single-Family Homes 3/1/1 $957,050 $911,000 -4.81 %

Check back next Monday and market your calendars, as I hope to bring you more Underbids more regularly.

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Active Listings By Price Segment and Property Type

These Broker Metrics charts track weekly number of Active Listings over the past 6 months (early May to mid-October):

SFD, under $1m Active Listings – weekly inventory just below 6 month average, about same level as spring, lowest number of active listings since early July.

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Condo, under $1m Active Listings – autumn inventory levels well above (about 25%) spring-summer levels

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SFD, $1m – $1.499m Active Listings – weekly inventory just fell below 6-month average

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Condo/Co-op, $1m – $1.499m – autumn inventory running far above (about 40%) spring-summer inventory levels

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SFD, $1.5m – $1.999m Active Listings – autumn inventory levels well above (about 30%) spring-summer levels

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Condo/Co-op, $1.5m – $1.999m – autumn inventory levels well above spring-summer levels

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SFD, $2m – 2.499m Active Listings – autumn listing inventory running well above (33%) 6-month average, and equal to mid-May levels

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Condo/Co-op, $2m+ Active Listings – inventory running about 25% above 6-month average, and well above spring-summer levels

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SFD, $2.5m+ Active Listings – inventory running about 29% above 6-month average, and about 20% above May levels

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Gorgeous Ocean Views

Maximum Overbid Of the Week | Avenues Getting In the Game

If you price it low enough, like silly low, you can always claim “Sold for $400,000 over asking!” Neighbors, check your mailboxes and get ready for the postcards to arrive any day for this property that sold right along the lines of recent comparable sales.

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This week’s winner of the top spot on the Maximum Overbid of the Week podium goes to 1723 27th Ave. A little house in the Avenues listed at $795,000, and sold for $1,200,800…make sure to throw the lucky 8 in there.

As for the rest, below are the top 10. Check the Avenues…the hottest spot in the city right now.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
1723 27th Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 12 $795,000 $1,200,800 51.04%
2768 35th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 14 $795,000 $1,150,000 44.65%
1770 Pacific Avenue 2/2.00/402 17 $1,249,000 $1,775,000 42.11%
1370 31st Avenue 3/2.00/N/A 35 $989,000 $1,380,000 39.53%
722 Wisconsin Street 1/1.00/N/A 9 $899,000 $1,230,000 36.82%
630 15th Avenue 3/2.50/N/A 34 $1,379,000 $1,825,000 32.34%
1006 Capitol Avenue 3/1.50/N/A 7 $699,000 $925,000 32.33%
219 Hearst Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 34 $888,000 $1,175,000 32.32%
318 Byxbee Street 3/1.00/N/A 12 $699,000 $915,000 30.90%
228 Scott Street 2/2.00/ 12 $995,000 $1,300,000 30.65%

Have a great weekend! Check back next week for more, and follow this link for Overbids, Underbids, Stalefish, New Listings, and all of San Francisco’s Recent Sales (thanks to The Goods).

San Francisco Condo Prices Down 3% Since Month Prior, Up 15% YTD

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES DECLINED 3 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER FROM PREVIOUS MONTH, UP 15 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR

Resale Inventory Surpasses Two Months of Supply for First Time in Two Years
According to The Mark Company Trend Sheet

San Francisco – October 14, 2015 – San Francisco condominium prices declined 3 percent from the previous month according to the Condominium Pricing Index released today by The Mark Company, a leading urban residential marketing and sales firm.
The San Francisco Condominium Pricing Index fell to $1,294 per-square-foot in September, retreating from the $1,340 per square foot record set the previous month, but remains 15 percent higher than September 2014. Monthly appreciation during this time of year is typically low or even negative.

There are approximately 656 new condominiums for sale in San Francisco, marking the lowest inventory level since March of this year. The scarcity of inventory will be eased slightly when sales commence at several developments during the fourth quarter of this year, including 41 units at 450 Hayes in Hayes Valley and 34 units at LuXe in Pacific Heights.

Prices for resale condominiums also decreased slightly to an average of $953 per-square-foot, falling 2 percent compared to August. Despite the recent decrease, prices are still 8 percent higher than one year ago. The number of resales is trending downward, falling 19% since last month, and 25% year-over-year.

“There are currently 395 active resale condominium listings in San Francisco, representing 2.4 months of supply. This is the first time in over two years that active inventory has increased to more than two months of supply, however inventory is still extremely low,” said Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company. Six months of inventory is considered to be the equilibrium between a buyers and seller’s market.

New construction absorption (the number of new condominiums placed into contract), fell approximately 25 percent in September, following a decline of 39 percent in August. “Slowdown is typical in the late summer, however absorption is still 36 percent higher than the same month one year ago,” noted Kennelly.

The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet (available at http://www.themarkcompany.com), is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.