I just published my most recent issue of sfnewsletter (sign up at sfnewsletter.com), complete with a couple market stories and a new link to awesome things like Top 20 Overbids, Top 20 Underbids (they exist), Recent Sales, New Listings, and Stalefish (Properties on the market 30+ days):
San Francisco House & Condo Values
Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales?
Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why?
September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until most close escrow in October and early November. In the meantime, we’ll look at the last 2 quarters.
Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The following 2 charts look at current and longer-term trends in home values. As is common, median house sales prices dropped a bit in the 3rd quarter – this is due mostly to seasonality issues – though condos have held steady for 3 quarters now at $950,000. Dollar per square foot values have continued to increase to new peaks: This metric is particularly being impacted by new-development condo sales, which are breaking dollar per square foot records virtually everyplace they’re being built.
If you wish to drill down on values in very specific city neighborhoods, we recently updated our interactive map, which can be found here: SF Home Price Map
Where Home Sales Occur at What Prices
The Case-Shiller Index for the San Francisco Metro Area covers the house markets of 5 Bay Area counties, divided into 3 price tiers, each constituting one third of unit sales. Most of San Francisco’s, Marin’s and San Mateo’s house sales are in the “high price tier”, so that is where we focus most of our attention. The Index is published 2 months after the month in question and reflects a 3-month rolling average, so it will always reflect the market of some months ago. June’s Index was just recently released.
The 5 counties in our Case-Shiller Metro Statistical Area are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa. Needless to say, there are many different real estate markets found in such a broad region, and it’s probably fair to say that the city of San Francisco’s market has generally out-performed the general metro area market.
Typically, the market cools off and plateaus for the summer months and that is what we are starting to see in the new Case-Shiller numbers for June. The next big indication of market conditions and trends will come after the autumn selling season begins in mid-September: That is typically when there is a large surge in new listings and buyer demand picks up again until the holiday slow-down begins in mid-November. It is difficult to make definitive statements about the market during the summer and mid-winter holidays because the market almost always slows substantially during these times.
The high-price home segment for the SF Metro area saw no significant change from May to June, though the low and mid-price segments both ticked up by a percentage point or two. Short-term fluctuations are much less meaningful than longer-term trends.
To learn more about Seasonality & The San Francisco Real Estate Market, check out my most recent issue of sfnewsletter by clicking that link.
As always, if you have any questions, you should know where to find me by now.
-Seasonality & The San Francisco Real Estate Market [sfnewsletter]
Although I’ve been out and about and trying to enjoy summer, clearly the Overbid factory didn’t get the memo. Check out the most recent craziness, including one architect/owner designed house on 15th Ave that sold almost 40% over asking! To all of those that think things slow down in Summer…think again.
Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco:
|414 Missouri St||4/3.00/N/A||6||$950,000||$1,410,000||48.42%|
|671 Alvarado St||2/1.00/||12||$899,000||$1,305,000||45.16%|
|1426 6th Ave||3/3.00/N/A||13||$1,595,000||$2,300,000||44.20%|
|609 Precita Ave||2/2.00/N/A||42||$825,000||$1,175,000||42.42%|
|531 Sanchez St||2/1.00/N/A||8||$995,000||$1,400,000||40.70%|
|2570 Folsom St||4/3.00/N/A||14||$1,595,000||$2,210,000||38.56%|
|45 Richland Ave||3/1.50/N/A||10||$650,000||$900,500||38.54%|
|2628 15th Ave||3/1.50/N/A||12||$849,000||$1,175,000||38.40%|
|656 Arguello Blvd||2/2.00/3||21||$799,000||$1,104,713||38.26%|
|80 Jersey St||3/2.00/||14||$1,195,000||$1,650,000||38.08%|
Want the top 20, sign up for sfnewsletter @ sfnewsletter.com.
[Update: Business Insider Just Shared 13 Properties all Selling For $1M or more over...]
Have a great weekend!
From $1,400,000 to $14,000,000 on 25th Ave?! Are you kidding me!? Yes, that’s a typo for sure. Agent error. Fat fingers. Something. It’s not right. But the rest – wow!
|2910 24th Ave||4/2.00/N/A||10||$1,400,000||$14,000,000||900.00%|
|140 Jerrold Ave||3/1.50/||7||$215,000||$413,000||92.09%|
|1725 Kearny St 5||2/2.00/5||14||$1,450,000||$2,450,000||68.97%|
|2186 14th Ave||2/1.00/N/A||1||$949,000||$1,500,000||58.06%|
|1574 Innes Ave||2/1.00/N/A||14||$599,000||$915,749||52.88%|
|2546 McAllister St 2548||2-4 Units||60||$995,000||$1,510,000||51.76%|
|228 3rd Ave||3/1.00/N/A||12||$995,000||$1,475,000||48.24%|
|2475 15th Ave||4/2.00/N/A||20||$1,195,000||$1,695,000||41.84%|
|141 Beaver St||2/2.00/N/A||18||$1,798,000||$2,507,000||39.43%|
|270 Valencia St||2/1.00/206||13||$648,000||$900,000||38.89%|
Have a great weekend.
Don’t forget, we have the full Top 20 on The Goods, and Top 20 Underbids too.