San Francisco’s Housing Market Continues to Strengthen Unlike Many Other Areas of the Country

Falling inventory levels and strong sales activity in December, 2009, helped to drive continued improvement in San Francisco’s housing market, according to the latest Market Focus report issued jointly by Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®. The median single-family home sales price increased for a third consecutive month in December reaching $755,608. That represents a 7.9 percent increase from December, 2008. The report attributes the improved market conditions to a drop off in foreclosure sales and a growing proportion of sales in higher priced neighborhoods.

Median Condominium Sales Price Increases for First Time Since July 2008

The report observes that the condominium market also seems to have turned a corner, as the median sales price increased by 7.6 percent to $672,590 in December. It was the first year-over-year increase since July 2008.

According to John Lee, president of the San Francisco, “The reduction in asking prices, mortgage rates of less than or near 5 percent and federal tax incentives have increased housing affordability and attracted buyers to the condominium market.” But he notes that “sellers of higher-priced properties have benefitted less from incentives as sales are closed only after significant negotiations from original asking prices.”

Closed and Pending Sales Activity in December Remained Relatively Strong

As expected, closed and pending sales activity dipped during December as a result of seasonal patterns. But despite the slowdown, closed and pending single-family sales activity that month outpaced similar activity in December of both 2008 and 2007.

According to the report, the single-family months of supply inventory fell to 3 months in December 2009 from 5.8 months in December 2008. The condominium months of supply inventory fared less well dropping to 4 months from 7.2 months during the same period. With inventory levels falling, Lee anticipates that the price increases seen in recent months will continue and possibly intensify.

The Rosen Consulting Group sounds a note of caution in its report by saying that a number of factors could delay the further strengthening of San Francisco’s housing market. Principal among these would be an increase in distressed properties that would add to the for sale inventory and put downward pressure on prices and the anticipated increase in mortgage rates that could rein in home buying activity. But the Group’s outlook is increasingly positive and it believes that if these eventualities would happen, “it would only be a bump in the road to long term growth in the San Francisco market.”

Condo Stats:

2-4 Unit Stats:

Data provided by Terradatum. For additional information about market statistics and/or additional information about Terradatum’s products and services, please call Terradatum at 1-888-212-4793 Ext. 2 or send e-mail to info@terradatum.com.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes and condos continued rising last month [June] as we move through the Spring selling season. Home sales were up 16.9% from May, off 2.41% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 17.1%.

Condo sales were up 20.5% month-over-month, but off 15% compared to June 2008. Year-to-date, condo sales are down 33.9%.

The median price for single-family homes rose for the third month in a row. The median price rose 3.2% from May, but was down 5.7% year-over-year. The average price also rose, gaining 9.5% month-over-month, but down 12.3% compared to last June.

The median price for loft/condos in San Francisco dipped 0.5% from May, and was down 15.1% year-over-year. The average price for condos fell 5.4% month-over-month, and was off 16.2% year-over-year.

The above information is from the Real Estate Report, a detailed version of which you can find by clicking that link.

Here’s the question. There are many different sources out there reporting on the data at hand and they all slice it differently. DataQuick looks at the big (Statewide, Bay Area picture), SocketSite takes their data and always finds a way to focus on the negative, and Realtors will always focus on the positive (we’ll get that data to you shortly), so the question is who to believe?

As for why the city continues to not see the obvious, maybe a good ophthalmologist recommendation is in order.

[Update: Right after putting this post live, we did another one with more data, that is still different than the other two data points we referred to above: Stats & Numbers San Francisco Home Sales June '08 Versus June '09.]

Source: San Francisco Real Estate Advantage Online

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NUMBER OF UNITS is the equivalent of number of sales/transactions. For condominiums, each unit is treated as a sale. For 2- to 4-unit buildings, the “building” is treated as a sale.

NUMBER SOLD is the number of properties in the market segment that closed escrow during the month.

NUMBER FOR SALE is the number of active properties on the market for one day or more during the month.

MEDIAN PRICE (SOLD) reflects the “middle” price point of a group of properties that have successfully closed escrow on a monthly basis, i.e. half sold for more and half sold for less than the median price. Tracking the movement of median prices over time provides a good indicator of the direction market forces are moving.

If the percentage change is positive between the two periods then there is upward pressure on prices in that market segment. If the percentage change is negative between the two periods then there is downward pressure on prices in that market segment.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) reflects how long it has been taking (on average) to draw an offer on a reasonably priced property exposed to the market. The AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET is defined as: The average number of days it took all of the properties that went under contract during the period to accept a first position offer.

MONTH’S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) is a measure of how long it would take, in months, to sell the existing inventory at the current sales rate for the specific neighborhood and property type. The MONTH’S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY is defined as: The number of active properties on the market for one day or more during the month, less the number of properties that have been withdrawn or expired, divided by the number of properties that have gone under contract during the month.

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Data provided by Terradatum. For additional information about market statistics and/or additional information about Terradatum’s products and services, please call Terradatum at 1-888-212-4793 Ext. 2 or send e-mail to info@terradatum.com.

-San Francisco Single Family Residence Inventory, Median, DOM, Listings Jan. ’08 v Jan. ’09 [SFAR, pdf]
-San Francisco Condominium Inventory, Median, DOM, Listings Jan. ’08 v Jan. ’09 [SFAR, pdf]
-San Francisco 2-4 Unit Inventory, Median, DOM, Listings Jan. ’08 v Jan. ’09 [SFAR, pdf]