Heat Map Of San Francisco Median Home Price Changes Since Previous ’06-’08 Market Peak

Who doesn’t love a good heat map? Especially us San Francisco residents caught in the grip of one brutally long fog song…
[Click image to enlarge.]
Zipcode_Appreciation-since-Peak

This heat map compares 2013 2nd quarter or 1st half median home sales prices – for houses, condos, co-ops and TICs combined – with those at the peak value time prior to the recent market recovery. Previous peak value times vary by neighborhood: typically, the least affluent neighborhoods hit peak prices in 2006 and also fell the most, percentage-wise, during the crash, falling 25% to 50%. These neighborhoods were most affected by the subprime and distressed-property sales crises. The mid-affluent neighborhoods peaked in 2007, and usually declined in value in the 20% to 25% range. And the most affluent areas reached peak values last, in the first half of 2008 prior to the September 2008 crash: Their fall in value ranged approximately 15% to 20% from 2008 peak to 2010-2011 nadir.

Generally speaking, when the market began to turn around in late 2011/early 2012, the last neighborhoods to fall were the first to recover, followed by the mid-affluent and then the less affluent areas.

Mission District “Is Our Backyard”-Says Potrero Hill

[Image Source]

Every so often older posts get comments that are so good, I just can’t pass up posting them right front and center on the home page. This one came in on an old post we did about La Mission District and just how cool it is.

Sorry Mission District, according to this Potrero Hill reader you’re nothing more than their “backyard”.

Potrero Hill is SF’s best neighborhood TO LIVE IN for these reasons:

1) VIEWS – don’t have one? Step outside, you get one every time you head towards any of the other neighborhoods or just to get a cup of Farley’s coffee. Can’t do that? Watch a commercial or movie, it’s likely it includes a scene shot from here.

2) PARKING – every one of the other neighborhoods has you looking and wishing you could drink and drive while looking.

3) SUNSHINE – if we don’t have it, neither do you. If we do, you probably don’t.

4) PROXIMITY – 280, 101, 80 and trains and the #10 make getting up and down the peninsula or to the East Bay, or to the beach or along the Embarcadero or FiDi or the ballpark a snap. Bernal, Bayview, Glen Park, Mission, Noe, Castro, Soma – are all neighbors, in fact La Mission is our backyard. Every thing else is really minutes ‘cept for the Golden Gate Bridge or Golden Gate Park which really is meant for a lovely drive anyway.

5) COMMUNITY – it’s tight and effective and gets more and more inclusive vs. many of the other conformist, hands-off-the-merchandise ‘hoods. This means childless hipsters, muralist breeders, biogeneticists, game designers, street soldiers, old-timers, turistas, baristas and anything with paws come together for the Good Life. And it’s small enough that everyone knows your name, “my friend”.

Touché!

-San Francisco’s Coolest Neighborhood…La Mission, Hands Down [theFrontSteps]

When you look at this chart/map, what do you see?

I feel like this is a bit of a litmus test.

I was on another blog and a poster actually used this map to back up a point made about neighborhoods north of California st. showing signs of weakness. I was like, huh? This map? Aren’t all the areas north of California YELLOW? (Yellow shows appreciation.)

It isn’t the greatest map/chart/whatever ever. It shows Noe Valley like half green and half yellow. I think most of us are pretty sure Noe hasn’t slid. It shows the north part of Potrero Hill as green. It shows all of SOMA as a chunk of green and I think we can all agree SOMA varies wildly. And the Inner Richmond has fallen? That would be a surprise to everyone working at any brokerage in town, in any capacity.

So, not the best. It needs more variegation certainly. But it sort of just goes to show where we are right now. We who are the buyers, sellers, agents, brokers, fence sitters, you name it. We who post on blogs about real estate. We’ve all come to think that the glass is not full. What does this chart tell you about the the status of said glass?

You’ll notice I didn’t get into who they quote, what they actually say in the article versus what’s happening here in the city, etc. You can get into that if you want. But what do you see in that graphic? I’m curious.

– fluj a k a kenneth kohlmyer

Price it (real, real) low, and away we go …..(251 Arkansas)

I knew this one would go superfast. You have to wonder if it wouldn’t have gone almost as fast if it were priced at 850K, tho. Anyway, anyone else see this property? It got into contract instantly.

A two car garage, north slope Potrero Hill, with a 25 X 100 foot lot, for 679? Simply fax your offer to the 678 area code? Well somebody didn’t mess around. Still tho — this is some 2006 type stuff right here!

-Property Details, 251 Arkansas [sfnewsletter listing detail page]

– Kenneth Kohlmyer a k a der fluj

888 7th Street, 85% sold and looking for your $399,000

According to more Realtor Spam (it’s really getting out of control, but some of it is useful):

888 7th Street

Just a reminder, we are about 85% sold at our new building at 888 7th Street in the Showplace Square/lower Potrero area. We have a limited number of junior one bedrooms homes available starting at $399,000. We have a limited number of one bedroom homes available starting at $499,000. These are great prices and great deals for first time home buyers.

-Website

-More on 888 7th Street [theFrontSteps]

Weekly Fluj: “I don’t know that they’re trippin’ either!” (2145 18th Street @ Kansas)

As stated numerous times, we can’t do all of this without you, and appreciate your tips, suggestions, and rants, so keep them coming. One person who is particularly helpful and deserving of praise is our friend the Fluj, who this week sends us this:

To my mind, the western portion of North Slope Potrero has not seen anything like this. It’s very far out in front of the curve, but I don’t know that they’re trippin’ either!

Perhaps the marketing remarks can shed some light as to whether they’re “trippin!”:

This spectacular remodeled view home has 3 levels of living w/3 bd, 2 ba all on upper level (toto dual flush toilets). The main level has an open floor plan-great for entertaining. It consists of lr (w/frplc), dr, kit w/GE monogram 42′ fridge, Thermador oven & micro, Viking 6 burner cook top, Bosch dw, great rm overlooking rear gar & powder rm. Lower level has office & media rm wired for surround sound. Systems, roofs, windows, flooring, walls were all replaced in 2008. 2 decks, garden & garage.

“Toto toilet”, is not to be confused with this Toto (even though the cross street is @ Kansas), rather is more like this Toto.

On that note, if you close your eyes and tap your heels long enough, red glass slipper optional (this is San Francisco after all), you too can someday have a $2,145,000 home in Potrero Hill. Tap them longer and maybe that price will come down a tad.

-2145 18th Street [MLS]

Weekly Fluj: Inventory, is there a lot of it?

Lots of people yapping on and on about how San Francisco listing inventory is through the roof, sales volume is in the toilet, and both median and average home prices have plummeted, but the Fluj says:

Seemingly the perception is that there is a lot of inventory, but is there, really? And as for prices, come on now!

Discuss, debate, have fun.

…and kicking it off, we’ll go ahead and show you Fluj’s first comment in the thread to get you going:

Right, so, “Inventory.”

Seemingly the conventional wisdom is that there is a lot of it. Why the disparity between what buyers in the field are actually excperiencing and the media/blogs then?

I did a search for available properties. I used a metric that I believe to be extremely common for San Franciscans. This is a search for a couple or a small family who hope to buy something with room to grow into.

The parameters are: 750K to $1.205M, 3 brs, 2 bas, 1 car parking. I limited the search zones to only generally safe(r) areas. Essentially I included everthing except Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, and Oceanview, all of 9 save Bernal and Potrero Hill, and all of 10.

I turned up 82 properties.

1. Of the 8 Richmond properties, only one was east of Funston, and it is a cosmetic fixer on 7th Ave for 899K. (On the market for 7 days, offers Tuesday, you best to hurry if interested IMO)

2. Twenty-seven are in the central or outer Sunset.

3. For areas 3, the Arch st. listing appears to be a nice little Merced Heights home for 559 a foot. Many searchers will not entertain areas 3.

4. For areas 4, if they are not on a very busy street or a fixer, only Forest Knoll, and Miraloma Park areas 4-D and 4-H have properties for 550-600 a foot. Like 3, many buyers will not entertain areas 4 as it is not particularly central.

5. Surprisingly, for areas 5, there are only two Glen Park listings. In Noe, there is only 4120 22nd, a permitted fixer in need of at least 600K in capital. In Ashbury Terrace, only one cosmetic fixer I know to have received two offers already. And there is one large fixer property up on Grand View — and it doesn’t have any views.

6. There was nothing in 6. This was surprising.

7-8. Nothing here. Not surprising.

9. Eleven are in Bernal Heights and will not appear in the search perameters of many groups. Two in Potrero Hill. The Wisconsin listing is a total fixer on a corner with very little southern exposure and an entrenched tenant. The Rhode Island property at $1.195M and 663 a foot appears to be a decent deal for North Slope.

So is that a lot of inventory? I really don’t think it is.

Isolated Panic amongst some San Francisco Realtors, or something larger?

Recently, we’ve been contacted by more than a dozen Realtors asking if we could “plug” their listings. Typically, this is not something we do as it defeats the purpose, honesty, and transparency of this blog, but we got to thinking…why not? We could make a little $$ from it, and help get the word out about some pretty cool properties that happen to still be available. Truth be told, a lot of “tips” from “tipsters” are essentially “plugs” anyway. Right?

Well, don’t worry, we’re not going to start whoring ourselves out…yet. But what has us thinking is the increase in requests to do so for properties that have only been on the market 2-6 weeks. In any other part of the country having a listing for 4 months is normal, and panic usually sets in around the 6th month that it is not sold, so why such alarm after 2-6 weeks? San Francisco Realtors are so accustomed to homes flying off the shelf, and when they don’t…they PANIC! Remember, a listing isn’t a “Stalefish” until 100 days have passed, so why all the panic?

We still say it all comes down to pricing, pricing, pricing, and location, location, location, and there is no need for panic across the board. We’re still hearing many more reports of multiple offers and properties flying off the shelf than we are of properties sitting, but is the national trend finally starting to hit San Francisco on a broader level, not just the southern districts? We’ve heard reports of homes in the Inner Richmond, Cole Valley, Westwood Park, Bernal Heights, Inner Sunset, Noe Valley (Gasp!), Parkside, Potrero Hill, and a few other nabes getting a bit stale. Properties that previously would have sold in the blink of an eye. So what gives?

We want your thoughts, especially you Realtors. Go ahead and comment anonymously, we won’t tell. And we certainly hope to hear from the Fluj, who, in case you missed it, we caught.

[If you'd like to check out what we've written about other neighborhoods in San Francisco, look to the right hand column and "Browse Site by Category".]

We’re going to Paris! But you need to buy first

Seems as we’re on the receiving end of just about every promo out there, and some are just too good to pass up. “It’s simple – write and close the most contracts at The Potrero between November 9th and December 31st 2007 and you could be on your way to Paris.” (You meaning us, the agents.)

potreroparis.jpg

Since we’re not big fans of stinky Paris subways, smoking fags (those are cigarettes to the un-trained Euro traveler), and all the sexy French women, we’ll just write the contracts for you, get you in a sweet pad at The Potrero, and should we win, we’ll pick one of you to send on your way to Paris. How about that? So not only would you get the insane buyer incentives, (last check it was two years paid HOA, W&D, and Fridge) , but a trip to gay Paris as well. (Gay Paris pronounced Gay Pear E)

You know where to find us to get you in the door.

Fine print: It’s just tickets, no hotel or anything else…but at least they’re business class, and we’ll throw in a Frenglish dictionary for you.

p.s. We’re totally joking about not liking Paris…we love it there.

-The Potrero South Building Now Selling [theFrontSteps]

-More Incentives at the Potrero [theFrontSteps]

Oh Kronos…you went so fast

This from Damion Matthews

“The SF Chronicle reports that 610 Rhode Island sold for over $2.5 million!”

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“Sotheby’s Realty agent Gregg Lynn listed 610 Rhode Island St. in San Francisco’s Potrero Hill area on June 22 for $2.3 million. After receiving more than a half-dozen offers, the property sold this week for more than 10 percent over the asking price.

The house, which has been featured in architectural publications, is a unique property designed by a couple of professional musicians who outfitted it with a 24-foot-high living room ceiling and good acoustics. That said, the kitchen and bathrooms date to 1989, when the home was built.

“People who can afford to live anywhere they want to live … want to move to San Francisco and live at that level,” Lynn said. “There’s no end to what they’ll do to get it.” “

MLS is still showing pending.

-As sales skid home prices remain strong [SF Gate/Chronicle]

-610 Rhode Island…my take [theFrontSteps]

-610 Rhode Island [website]

Stump the Stammtisch: What do you think of the Potrero (451 Kansas)?

In another test of our growing amount of knowledge via new members to our Stammtisch, a reader asks our opinion. Hopefully, he/she’ll get an answer.

“Hi there,

What do you think of the Potrero development? Do you think housing prices in this area will appreciate, since it is considered up and coming?

Cheers,

A.S.”

zum_thepotrero03.jpg

Please feel free to help this reader form an opinion on the development and area, and look for some expert opinions from some of our Stammgäste, by checking and contributing to the comments.

-The Potrero, South Building now selling [theFrontSteps]

-The Potrero [website]

610 Rhode Island: my take

By Alexander Clark

Okay, so I had the chance to nose around 610 Rhode Island (asking $2.3MM) yesterday, and I gotta say, it was impressive, but I was not impressed. In our previous post I was practically frothing at the mouth to get in there…and I’m glad I did.  This is not to say I didn’t like it, I was just going in there with certain expectations based off of the fabulous photos, but came away feeling something entirely different.

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(photo taken from property site, Jacob Elliot photographer)

I may be opening up a can of worms to some hate mail, but what the hell. I’m a huge fan of all things modern as you soon will see, and love all types of property, but this felt industrial and cold. It felt very metallic (especially the metallic pinging going up and down the spiral staircases, I think there were at least 4), small, dark, and just a bit too silver. Of course coloring can be changed, as well as “warming” the place up, but I gotta say, those pictures on the site make it look much larger than it actually feels (kudos to the photographer).

There were some great views from different parts of the property (thinking the peek-a-boo window in the office), the terrace was nice and warm (a bit dangerous if you have kids and don’t want them falling in the fountain), it was an incredible use of space with some very unique and interesting lines, the brownies Gregg Lynn was serving up were tasty, and it will be a great house for the right buyer.  That buyer just won’t be me.

This is only my opinion.  If you at all have an interest in properties of this caliber/type, you owe it to yourself to go check it out, and don’t take my word for it. Anybody else get in, and what did you think? 

-Oh Kronos! [theFrontSteps]

Oh Kronos!

The Kronos House, 610 Rhode Island is on the market for $2.3MM, but unfortunately for you, the line starts behind us, we have first dibs.

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“More than 15 years after its completion, the Kronos House – designed by Maybeck Award-winning architect Daniel Solomon – is still a stand-out in Potrero Hill. Commissioned by a founder of The Kronos Quartet, this avant-garde residence resonates of the San Francisco pop culture salon that has assembled under its roof – the intersection of Grammy-Award winning music, architecture, art, sculpture, technology and motion pictures.

A black-shingled façade is marked by large central windows divided by a chimney and flanked by 20 small square portals that deliberately undermine the three-story building’s sense of scale. Under a central-domed oculus, three bedrooms coexist with the dramatic entertaining space created by Italian plaster, perforated galvanized metal and 24-foot ceilings.”

We need not say more. The pictures and description speak for themselves. Well, maybe we’ll tell you it last sold in 1999 for $1.4MM, and spent 130 days on the market. It will be interesting to see what happens this time around.

-610 Rhode Island [mls]

-610 Rhode Island [Sothebys]

Stats & Numbers

Ask nicely and you shall receive. We did the Single Family Stats and Numbers last week, and a kind email request came for the same thing for condos. Thank you for reading, commenting on, and contacting the sfnewsletter BLOG.   Here are the graphs representing Median Price for CONDOS in San Francisco by zip code:

Inner Richmond/Presidio Heights

Richmond

Marina/Cow Hollow

Parkside

Pacific Heights

Mission

Noe Valley

Mission Bay/Potrero Hill/SOMA

South Beach

Stats & Numbers

Thanks to “Boom”, who commented on one of our posts, and provided us with this link to the latest Bay Area Home Sale Activity for April 2007, which we copied below to show you just how San Francisco stacked up to the same month last year.
countypercentages.jpg

Our problem with relying on zip code data for median prices and market trends in San Francisco is the fact that the zip code doesn’t necessarily jive with the neighborhood and common type of property being purchased in those areas.  Examples: 94115 is Pacific Heights, but it also includes Lower Pacific Heights and the Western Addition; 94110 is the Mission, but also Bernal Heights; 94121 is Central and Outer Richmond, but also Sea Cliff.  See where we’re going with this?  

Regardless, here are some cool “real time” graphs you might find interesting as well. (Graphs are only for Single Family Residences.)

Innner Richmond, Laurel/Presidio Heights

Central/Outer Richmond, Sea Cliff

Marina/Cow Hollow

Parkside

Pacific Heights, Lower Pacific Heights, Western Addition

Mission, Bernal Heights,

Noe Valley, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle

Mission Bay/Potrero Hill/SOMA, South Beach

South Beach, SOMA, Financial District

If you’d like your zip charted, contact us.

-Your chance at fame…or missed fortune [sfn BLOG]
-More Stats & Numbers [sfn BLOG]
[image sources: Data Quick; and Altos Research]

zūm llc: a 3D “picture medley”

Ever hear the Jane’s Addiction song, “L.A. Medley”? If not, you should. We recently discovered zūm llc as the company that has done some 3D renderings for some of the new developments around town (The Potrero, Blū, Fairmont Heritage Place at Ghirardelli Square, 733 Front Street) and we decided they are deserving of our first “picture medley”. We’re always happy to support local businesses, so we contacted them, they replied, and you get to…ENJOY!

Fairmont Heritage Place at Ghirardelli Square:

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733 Front Street:

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Blū (631 Folsom):

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The Potrero (451 Kansas):

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zum_thepotrero02.jpg

zum_thepotrero03.jpg

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zum_thepotrero05.jpg

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Pretty Impressive isn’t it?

Some bullet points describing in brief what zūm llc does for the owner/developer…

In most cases they are retained directly by the owner/developer to assist the clients’ design and marketing teams for:

·Sales & Marketing

·Pre sales and Pre leasing

·Feasibility and Environmental studies

·Investor review process

·Design review process

·Government review process

As a person in the real estate business, with clients that sometimes make purchases solely off of pictures (myself included…not recommended, but common), the old saying a picture is worth a thousand words holds true. Now I can say a high-res 3D picture is worth two thousand words. Thanks to zūm llc for enlightening us.

We’ll get some information for you regarding Blū, and the Fairmont, and an update on the Potrero and 733 Front as soon as we can. We might also add that we “are the only blog that has these images right now“, so if you’re seeing them somewhere else, remember you saw them here first. Now, go back up and look at those pictures again. You deserve it.

-The Potrero

-Blū

-Fairmont Heritage Place at Ghirardelli Square

-733 Front Street

-733 Front Street: a walkthrough and opinion [sfn BLOG]

“Little old Bernal Heights makes the Financial Times”

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We’ve been telling you for eons how hot Bernal has been and continues to be, and a kind reader forwarded us the following article, from none other than the Financial Times (The City’s Last Secret).

Some money quotes:
-”Bernal isn’t the next neighbourhood in San Francisco; it’s the last neighbourhood in San Francisco,” [Editor's note: Apparently they've over-looked Glen Park, Potrero Hill, West Portal, Inner Sunset, Golden Gate Heights, Hayes Valley, oh we could go on forever.]
-”Bernal (which rhymes with “kernel”)” [Editor's note: A Beastie Boys lyric comes to mind here, "eating Colonel's chicken drinking Heineken Brew..."]
-”Bernal remains one of the few places in San Francisco where young families of less extravagant means can hope to find a two- or three-bedroom detached house with a yard for a growing family. “It’s as affordable as you can get in San Francisco,” [Editor's note: According to MLS the average sales price for a single family home in Bernal Heights is $883,649, and PPSF is $597...bargain basement prices!]
-”Young, stroller-pushing mums mingle freely with flannel-clad hipsters and grannies in Bernal Heights-emblazoned hoodies.”
-”once people land there it becomes cult-like”

That’s enough. It’s actually a great article and a great neighborhood, we were just poking a little fun. Necessary sometimes in this uptight world of real estate.

-The City’s Last Secret [Financial Times]
-Score Another One for Bernal[sfn BLOG]
-All Bernal Articles so far [sfn BLOG]
-[Image credit: Bernal Heights Preservation.com]

The Potrero: Developer’s Specials

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Our friends at The Potrero, Potrero Hill’s newest development with prices starting at $404,880 for a studio, and working their way up from there for one and two bedroom condos, and two and three bedroom townhomes, have decided to release a few “developer’s specials”, and you’re hearing it here first. [Update: they just hit MLS.]

If you are interested in these developer’s specials (we were), you simply need to go to the sales office and “tell them sfnewsletter sent you.” They’ll be happy to give you all the details and show you around. Here’s what we can tell:

#475- $569,800

1 bedroom/1 bathroom

661 SF

Located on North Courtyard

* Includes Fischer Paykel Refrigerator & GE Super Capacity Washer & Dryer

#382- $739,880

2 Bedrooms/2 Bathrooms

932 SF

Located on Rhode Island St.

* Includes Fischer Paykel Refrigerator & GE Super Capacity Washer & Dryer

#442- $785,880

2 Bedrooms/ 2.5 Bathroom Townhome

1047 SF

Located on Mariposa St.

Gas Stove

* Includes Fischer Paykel Refrigerator & GE Super Capacity Washer & Dryer

#492- $769,880

2 Bedrooms/ 2.5 Bathrooms

964 SF

Top Floor Corner Home

* Includes Fischer Paykel Refrigerator & GE Super Capacity Washer & Dryer

So what’s the big deal? You save a minimum of $25,000, these units were not offered for sale previously, include appliances, and unit #442 is in the South Building and not yet available to the general public.

So head on down to 444 De Haro, tell them sfnewsletter sent you and make yourself at home.

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The Potrero [website]

[images taken from The Potrero Website]