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Maximum Underbid | Russian Hill Property Wins | List $3.2M, Sold $2.6M

Closed on the last day of 2015 was this 3 bedroom Russian Hill condominium with dramatic views. Listed for just shy of $3.2M and sold 18% under asking, at $2.6M, it takes top spot on the top 10 Podium Underbids of the week for San Francisco.

Interesting to note is that out of the top 10 underbids that closed in the past two weeks, 7 of them are condos and 3 of them are single-family homes (That’s R.E. 101 in college…supply/demand).

And here are the rest.

Happy New Year everyone!

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
1070 Green Street #1402 3/2.5/1 $3,195,000 $2,600,000 -18.62 %
151 Everglade Drive 3/3/2 $1,599,000 $1,400,000 -12.45 %
68 Landers Street 2/2/1 $1,499,000 $1,315,000 -12.27 %
400 Beale Street #1407 2/2/1 $1,150,000 $1,053,000 -8.43 %
3315 Pierce Street 3/3.5/3 $2,699,000 $2,500,000 -7.37 %
33 Perine Place 2/2/1 $1,500,000 $1,400,000 -6.67 %
425 28th Street 3/2/1 $1,695,000 $1,588,888 -6.26 %
355 1st Street 2/2/1 $1,595,000 $1,500,000 -5.96 %
739 48th Avenue 3/2/1 $995,000 $945,000 -5.03 %
1760 Ofarrell Street San Francisco, CA 94115 2/2/1 $879,000 $835,000 -5.01 %
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San Francisco | December 2015 Real Estate Market Update

San Francisco Real Estate Report, December 2015 Market Update.
– Heading into the Holiday Slowdown after an Interesting Autumn Market
– Median home prices, over-bidding, housing affordability, luxury home sales, the new-home construction pipeline, and comparing the Shanghai and S&P 500 stock indices

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Median sales prices in October and November jumped back up to levels similar to the spring peak selling season. It’s important to remember that median prices are not a perfect reflection of changes in fair market value: They often fluctuate due to seasonal inventory and buyer-profile trends, as well as issues such as an influx of new-construction listings. It is the longer-term trend that is most meaningful – however we can say with confidence that there was clearly no significant “crash” in prices this past autumn.

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One indication of the heat of the market is the extent to which sales prices are bid up over asking prices. As is not untypical, the market becomes less competitive in November as it heads into the winter holidays. Still, an average sales price 6% over asking price would be considered crazy-hot in any other market in the country (though one also has to adjust for the fact that serious underpricing has become a not uncommon listing strategy in the SF market).

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This chart based on S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index data illustrates the seasonality of home price appreciation in the past 4 years: surging in our feverish spring selling seasons, and then generally plateauing through the rest of the year. Note that Case-Shiller looks at home prices in a totally different way than median sales price trends, and probably reflects changes in fair market value more accurately. Case-Shiller Index numbers refer back to a January 2000 value of 100, thus the current Index reading for higher-priced Bay Area homes of 217 signifies home prices 117% above January 2000.

As we enter the winter holiday market slowdown, the next real indication of the direction of the market will come in the first quarter of 2016. Will spring 2016 repeat the overheated, high demand/ low supply frenzies of previous springs or has the market finally reached a longer term plateau or even an affordability inflection point? We shall soon know more.

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In 2015 YTD, the dominant price segment for home sales in San Francisco was $1,000,000 to $1,499,000. As seen in the first chart above, the median sales prices for both condos and houses fall within this range. Note the change from just two years ago.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Market

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The high-end home market is the most seasonal segment in the city (as well as the most sensitive to sudden, large, negative movements in the financial markets). Market activity starts to plunge in November, hits its nadir in December, begins to pick up in the first quarter and then usually hits its peak in spring. Much of the center of gravity in the luxury market has been shifting in recent years from the city’s prestige northern neighborhoods to other districts of the city, such as the greater Noe Valley area and the South Beach/Yerba Buena district. This is not to say that the northern districts are not still both very expensive and considered highly desirable, and the greater Pacific Heights area still dominates the market for the most expensive houses in the city, i.e. those selling for $5m and more.

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After the semi-hysteria – already half forgotten – that erupted in late August and September regarding the Chinese stock market and its impact on the U.S. stock market and economy, and possibly the Bay Area housing market, we thought it interesting to take a look back at how it has played out so far.

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It is widely expected that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, probably by some minimal increment, but for the time being, as of the first week of December, rates have remained below 4%.

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In November, we issued two mini-reports, one on Bay Area housing affordability and another on San Francisco new housing construction. Below are the featured charts:

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I’ll continue to keep an eye on things for you, if you continue to read it.

Expect much lighter than usual blogging for the rest of the year, and don’t be surprised if theFrontSteps goes under construction.

Contact me today for a free property valuation, or to get you set up on my buyer system.

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Pacific Heights Condo Goes 11% Under | Elevator Ensures Minimal Neighbor Contact

Last week it was this Bernal Heights home that went 20% under asking, thus claiming the podium position. The winner this week is an ultra-deluxe condo in one of the most sought-after neighborhoods on the “North End” of town, Pacific Heights. This home at 2955 Pacific has views, a deck, a formal dining room perfect for Thanksgiving (maybe a 9 lb. Turkey and 6 guests, instead of the 16 lb. Turkey you’re envisioning), and even an elevator that takes you from garage to your unit, so you never have to see your politically incorrect neighbors that love to corner you into a discussion (or lecture) about why their candidate is best suited to occupy the White House.

Listed for $4.1M and sold for $3.65, what a bargain…and those red chairs are so great…ornot.
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As for the top 10 Underbid list, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2955 Pacific Avenue 3/2/1 $4,100,000 $3,650,000 -10.98 %
622-626 Buchanan Street 2-4 Units $1,399,000 $1,250,000 -10.65 %
3283 25th Street 2-4 Units $1,788,000 $1,615,000 -9.68 %
765 Market Street 1/1.5/0 $1,550,000 $1,415,000 -8.71 %
2340 29th Avenue 4/2/3 $1,299,000 $1,190,000 -8.39 %
265 Minerva Street 2/1/1 $699,999 $659,000 -5.86 %
570-572 6th Avenue 2-4 Units $1,800,000 $1,700,000 -5.56 %
1052 Rhode Island Street 3/1/1 $899,000 $850,000 -5.45 %
313 2nd Avenue 2/1/1 $789,000 $749,000 -5.07 %
886 30th Avenue 2/2.5/1 $1,450,000 $1,380,000 -4.83 %

This data is pulled from properties sold within the past two weeks. To get this type of stuff sent to your inbox, sign up for sfnewsletter at sfnewsletter.com. I send it roughly every other week.

(Keep in mind the properties we feature go into contract, usually have an escrow period, then close…When we post that a property “goes” we’re referring to the day it actually is SOLD, not the day it goes into contract.)

04-alex-clark-portrait-citybg-2x3I wish you all a wonderful Thanksgiving Holiday filled with good food, good cheer, friends, family, football, skiing, surfing, no drama, no accidents, no injuries, tasty cocktails, cold beer, and old expensive delicious red wine. Happy Thanksgiving! Thank you all for your continued readership, loyalty, referrals, and business. It has been a great year, and it’s still not over (I have a great off market single family home in Cole Valley should you be interested.)

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$440,000 Under Asking | Personal Chapel Maybe Included, Wallpaper Definitely

It only took seven months, but in the end, it got there. SOLD for $440,000 UNDER asking!

You read that correctly, this 6-bedroom single family home in Mission Terrace at 100 Delano Avenue just closed $440,000 below the original (back in March) asking price of $1,600,000. After a price chop to $1.5, then $1.4, then again to $1.3, it appears the Lord finally took pity on this property and landed it on top of this week’s Top 10 Underbids. With plenty of extra space, awesome curtains, wow-tastic wallpaper, and your own “personal chapel” how could you not want to move right in!?

As for the other buyer scores, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
100 Delano Avenue 6/3/3 $1,300,000 $1,160,000 -10.77 %
355 Bryant Street 2/2/1 $2,345,000 $2,100,000 -10.45 %
18 Palm Avenue 4/3.5/2 $4,995,000 $4,525,000 -9.41 %
1264 Bush Street 1/1/0 $649,000 $590,000 -9.09 %
78 Gladys Street 3/2/0 $1,195,000 $1,100,000 -7.95 %
1437 47th Avenue 1437A 2 unit $1,275,000 $1,175,000 -7.84 %
601 4th Street #321 1/1/1 $1,499,000 $1,400,000 -6.60 %
2040 Franklin Street #506 0/1/1 $575,000 $540,000 -6.09 %
2730 Broderick Street 4/3.5/1 $5,850,000 $5,500,000 -5.98 %
301 Mission Street #51D 2/3/1 $4,495,000 $4,250,000 -5.45 %

You see…”deals” can still be had in San Francisco.

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August Case-Shiller Index | San Francisco Bay Area

The new S&P Case-Shiller Index for August was just released on Tuesday. The prices for homes in the upper third of prices – which dominate in most of San Francisco, central and southern Marin, and central Contra Costa – ticked down a tiny bit in summer, exactly as they did last summer. These short-term fluctuations are common and not particularly meaningful until substantiated by a longer-term trend.

Since Case-Shiller’s SF Metro Area covers 5 counties, it should be noted that not all the markets within the Area move in lockstep: activity and appreciation rates can vary significantly.

As is clearly illustrated below, for the past 4 years, spring has been the big driver of home-price appreciation. Prices generally plateau in subsequent seasons until the next spring arrives. For the past couple years, the spring selling season has started very early, in late January or early February, due to the incredible weather we’ve had in those months. El Niňo, if it arrives, might move the spring pick-up in sales back to mid-March/early April in 2016.

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This second chart illustrates the huge burst in prices this past spring. It’s not unusual for the market to slump a little during the summer holidays, almost in exhaustion after the spring frenzy. We’ll have more autumn statistics soon when October’s MLS data comes in, but Paragon has been experiencing its most active autumn selling season in its history in 2015.

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And here are 3 longer-term charts for each of the 3 Case-Shiller price tiers for the 5-county San Francisco metro statistical area. As can be seen, the different price tiers had bubbles and crashes of radically different magnitudes in 2006 – 2009, but as far as total appreciation since the year 2000, all of them display very similar appreciation rates.

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That ought to do it for your data craving for a while. You might consider following this blog via email (link below) or get on the Twitter train @theFrontSteps, so you don’t miss a beat of San Francisco Real Estate.

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Active Listings By Price Segment and Property Type

These Broker Metrics charts track weekly number of Active Listings over the past 6 months (early May to mid-October):

SFD, under $1m Active Listings – weekly inventory just below 6 month average, about same level as spring, lowest number of active listings since early July.

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Condo, under $1m Active Listings – autumn inventory levels well above (about 25%) spring-summer levels

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SFD, $1m – $1.499m Active Listings – weekly inventory just fell below 6-month average

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Condo/Co-op, $1m – $1.499m – autumn inventory running far above (about 40%) spring-summer inventory levels

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SFD, $1.5m – $1.999m Active Listings – autumn inventory levels well above (about 30%) spring-summer levels

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Condo/Co-op, $1.5m – $1.999m – autumn inventory levels well above spring-summer levels

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SFD, $2m – 2.499m Active Listings – autumn listing inventory running well above (33%) 6-month average, and equal to mid-May levels

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Condo/Co-op, $2m+ Active Listings – inventory running about 25% above 6-month average, and well above spring-summer levels

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SFD, $2.5m+ Active Listings – inventory running about 29% above 6-month average, and about 20% above May levels

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San Francisco Condo Prices Down 3% Since Month Prior, Up 15% YTD

SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES DECLINED 3 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER FROM PREVIOUS MONTH, UP 15 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR

Resale Inventory Surpasses Two Months of Supply for First Time in Two Years
According to The Mark Company Trend Sheet

San Francisco – October 14, 2015 – San Francisco condominium prices declined 3 percent from the previous month according to the Condominium Pricing Index released today by The Mark Company, a leading urban residential marketing and sales firm.
The San Francisco Condominium Pricing Index fell to $1,294 per-square-foot in September, retreating from the $1,340 per square foot record set the previous month, but remains 15 percent higher than September 2014. Monthly appreciation during this time of year is typically low or even negative.

There are approximately 656 new condominiums for sale in San Francisco, marking the lowest inventory level since March of this year. The scarcity of inventory will be eased slightly when sales commence at several developments during the fourth quarter of this year, including 41 units at 450 Hayes in Hayes Valley and 34 units at LuXe in Pacific Heights.

Prices for resale condominiums also decreased slightly to an average of $953 per-square-foot, falling 2 percent compared to August. Despite the recent decrease, prices are still 8 percent higher than one year ago. The number of resales is trending downward, falling 19% since last month, and 25% year-over-year.

“There are currently 395 active resale condominium listings in San Francisco, representing 2.4 months of supply. This is the first time in over two years that active inventory has increased to more than two months of supply, however inventory is still extremely low,” said Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company. Six months of inventory is considered to be the equilibrium between a buyers and seller’s market.

New construction absorption (the number of new condominiums placed into contract), fell approximately 25 percent in September, following a decline of 39 percent in August. “Slowdown is typical in the late summer, however absorption is still 36 percent higher than the same month one year ago,” noted Kennelly.

The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet (available at http://www.themarkcompany.com), is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.

Spacious 3 Bedroom

SOLD: 1471 McAllister, Alamo Square, San Francisco

It’s taken me a little while to get some recent sales posted, but I’m happy to announce we sold this wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Alamo Square at 1471 McAllister. Considering my clients had only purchased it barely two years prior, we did incredibly well.

I would have liked to list it at $1,295,000, but ultimately we rolled the dice a little higher and listed at $1,395,000. Interest was incredibly high, dozens of disclosure packages were handed out, and ultimately no offers came in on the day offers were to be reviewed (the week prior to Fourth of July…note to self, don’t do that again). The next day the phone started ringing off the hook. Two offers came in, we ratified one, and it fell apart. BOM (that’s Back On the Market) a few days later, we received two more offers and were able to hold it together. Lack of official nearby parking was the killer for us, but really, we did fine. Amazing actually.

Congratulations to the thrilled buyer and my happy seller. Let’s do it again soon!

SOLD: $1,375,000

1471 McAllister, Alamo Square listing information [theFrontSteps]

Feb 2015 SF New Condominium Prices Up 19% YOY

FEBRUARY 2015 SAN FRANCISCO NEW CONDOMINIUM PRICES RISE 4 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS MONTH, UP 19 PERCENT OVER A YEAR AGO

San Francisco – March 10, 2015 – San Francisco new condominium prices rose 4 percent in February 2015 from the previous month, according to the Condominium Pricing Index just released by The Mark Company, a leading urban residential marketing and sales firm. Scroll to the bottom to see the trend sheet.

The Mark Company Condominium Pricing Index for February was $1,221 per square foot, which is 19 percent higher than the previous year and four percent higher than the previous month. Tied with October 2014, this four percent increase is the highest monthly increase since April 2014.

New construction inventory was down 7 percent from last month, but 1,715 percent higher than a year ago. “Despite the addition of more than 1,600 units in 2014, there are now a total of 708 new condominium units available for sale in San Francisco,” said Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company.

The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet, represents the price per square foot of a new 10th floor, 1,000-square-foot condominium. It is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.

The Mark Company Penthouse Pricing Index, which applies the same methodology to a new 30th floor, 2,000-square-foot condominium, was $2,097 per square foot in February, up 4 percent from the previous month and 19 percent higher year over year.

The average price per square foot for resale condominiums, which is more volatile than the Condominium Pricing Index, was down 6 percent month over month, and is 3 percent higher than a year ago, according to The Mark Company.

Resale inventory remains extremely low. “There are now only 81 active resale listings, representing only 1.4 months of inventory at the current pace of sales,” noted Kennelly. Six months of inventory is considered the equilibrium between a buyer’s and a seller’s market.
The Mark Company has also released the February Downtown Los Angeles Trend Sheet and Pricing Index, as well as the Downtown Seattle Trend Sheet and Pricing Index.

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Stunning Marina Condo

For Sale | 1487 Chestnut Street | Marina District | $849,000

When it comes to real estate, there is location, but when it comes to 1487 Chestnut Street and being lucky enough to call this property home, there is location, location, location.

Situated on the corner of Chestnut and Gough streets in an area of the Marina deemed NOT on landfill, this quintessential top floor, corner unit, Marina condominium is bathed in natural light, early century charm, and the warmth of hardwood floors throughout. With all of the modern amenities you’ve come to love, a great floor plan, ample closet space, and a Marina location to live for (walk to Marina Green, Moscone Recreation Center, Aquatic Park, Union, Chestnut & Polk Street shops/restaurants, and so much more), you’ll be the envy of all your friends.

Home Highlights:
1 bedroom
1 bath
Formal Dining Room (could be used as second bedroom/office)
Formal Living Room
Granite Countertops
Kitchen Bar Seating area
Washer & Dryer in unit
View Roof Deck (shared)
Hardwood floors
Deeded Private Garage w/ 1 car parking
Additional Storage
HOA Fees: $201/mo (includes: building insurance, water, sewer, and garbage)
Approx. 945 square feet
Year Built: 1923
Walk Score: 92 (Walker’s Paradise)
Amazing Marina location
List Price: $849,000

Showing schedule:
Sunday 2/8 from 1-4pm
Tuesday 2/10 from 10-11:30
Thursday 2/12 from 5-7pm
Saturday 2/14 from 1-4pm
Sunday 2/15 from 1-4pm
Tuesday 2/17 10:30-12
Private Showings by appointment
Offer Date: Wednesday 2/18 by 12 noon

Listing Agent & Contact:
Alexander Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group
415-254-5351
alexclark@gmail.com

This is an awesome property in an amazing location. Please come to any one of the showings, send your friends/family, and make sure to introduce yourself. If you can’t make it during one of the times, just give us a shout and we’ll make sure to get you in.

For more information about San Francisco’s Liquefaction/Landfill areas, check out our posts on the matter a long time back:

San Francisco Neighborhoods Prone To Liquefaction and Earthquake Induced Landslides: Bedrock vs. Landfill Take Two [theFrontSteps]
A Map Of Bedrock Vs. Landfill [theFrontSteps]
Liquefaction Zones of San Francisco’s Marina District [theFrontSteps]