Category Archives: San Francisco Real Estate

Living/Great room detached on 3 sides with tons of light

NOPA Flat For Sale: You Get First Dibs

Labor Day is just around the corner, and that means we can expect an influx of listings to hit the market. Just like everyone else, we’ve been waiting and preparing a couple properties ourselves. We’ll be putting this beauty on the market 9/5, but as is always the case, my readers get first crack.

Situated in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in San Francisco, this NOPA flat is not to be missed. You can walk to everything, transportation is a breeze, and with approximately 1500 +/- square feet of living space, what more could you need. Located at 1674 Hayes, this unit features 3 bedrooms, 2 1/4 bath (2nd bedroom has a sink), 1 parking space for a small car, soaring ceilings, hardwood floors, laundry room, fireplace, and a shared yard. The bedrooms are very generous in size and have tons of closet space for all those shoes and suits. The long hallway leads you to the rear of the property where the incredibly light and bright great room allows for dining, entertaining, cooking, and lounging all in the same space.

We will be listing this property 9/5, first open house 9/7 from 2-4pm, and available for private showings anytime. Price will be $1,095,000, and the offer date (if any) is still TBD. Disclosures are in the final stages of completion, and property is in the final stretch of condo conversion. If you’d like any more details, or care to get yourself or a friend in, give me a shout: 415-254-5351.

If you live in the area, and were wondering what your home might be worth, or what we expect to sell this flat for, I’d be happy to chat.

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Case-Shiller Home Price Index Update For The San Francisco Bay Area

The Case-Shiller Index report for May 2014 for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area was released the other day, showing another small bump in home prices from April to May. The aggregate or total index is now up approximately 55% since the market recovery began in early 2012. The 5 counties covered by the index are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa.

However, Case-Shiller also breaks out home price changes by price tier – low, middle and high – and each tier has experienced dramatically different trend lines since 2000. The low price tier – homes found mostly in Alameda and Contra Costa counties (though also other Bay Area counties not in the SF MSA, such as Solano, Sonoma and Napa) experienced a crazy bubble much larger than the other price tiers and subsequently experienced a much bigger crash due to foreclosures and short sales. The middle and high price tiers, which predominate in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo, experienced much smaller bubbles and crashes. This is dramatically illustrated in the first graph below.

In all the Case-Shiller Indices the numbers refer to a January 2000 home value of 100. Thus a reading of 195 signifies a value 95% above that of January 2000.

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All tiers have seen big recoveries since 2012 began, but only the high-price tier has now exceeded previous peak values attained in 2006-2007. Because of the absurd size of the low-price tier bubble, its home prices are still far below previous peak values and it’s probably unreasonable to expect them to be surpassed anytime soon.

However, all the price tiers show very similar overall appreciation rates since 2000, running from 93% to 97% over the 14 ½ years, which suggest an equilibrium is being achieved across the general market.

This chart below tracks home price appreciation for higher-priced homes since 2012. As with all statistics, monthly statistics are much less meaningful than longer term trends.

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San Francisco itself, whose median house price is now over $1.1 million, has performed significantly better than even the general high-price tier, as can be seen in the median price chart for the Noe & Eureka Valleys neighborhoods of the city.
This chart is just a sample of how some San Francisco neighborhoods – especially its most expensive ones – have far exceeded general Bay Area appreciation trends, as far as previous peak values are concerned. Many of San Mateo’s cities have experienced a similar dynamic, as they both share the dominant effect of the high-tech wealth effect on home prices.

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If you would like more information about these charts, or the San Francisco market in particular, give me a shout.

30plus

The 30+ Club

From 333 Grant #707 to 4348 21st St, an $11,000,000 Penthouse at the Four Seasons to a 1 bedroom condo on the 46th Floor of that big ol’ tower by the Bay Bridge, there is a little category out there that is often overlooked and it’s high time it gets the attention it deserves: Properties on the market more than 30 days a.k.a the 30+ Club.

As much as I like to highlight Overbids and Underbids, properties that make the jaw drop, multi-million dollar sales, and my own triumphs, this category should actually get more attention, because if you have a property to sell in San Francisco and it hasn’t sold or gone in contract within 30 days, you’re doing something wrong, and if you’re a buyer continually getting beat out by the other guy, there is opportunity right here under your nose.

So get on the list, and if you’re an agent, send this list to your clients, and let’s help put some of these Stalefish out of their misery.

*This data is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed accurate by the MLS or myself, although it’s pretty damn close to 100%.

-30+ Club: list of properties on the market 30 Days Or More

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We Just Beat The Closest Comp By $200,000

I’m pleased to announce my clients have successfully sold their Richmond District top floor condominium for $1,200,000 (listed at $949,000), or as I like to point out, $200,000 more than the most recent, closest competitor property on 26th Ave that listed almost the same day as we did.

It’s no coincidence we knocked it out of the park. It was strategy, patience, perseverance, and knowing how to finesse each offer (we received five) to their highest and best without them walking away. Congratulations to my clients that just set the bar for Central Richmond condos – the last area of the city you can still find a deal. Let the migration begin.

-741 18th Ave, Top Floor, 2+ bedroom, 1.5 bath, 2 parking, Richmond District Condo, listed $949,000, sold for $1,200,000. Seller Representation.

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From 32% In NOPA To 65% On Nevada – San Francisco’s Top 10 Overbids

It’s Friday, that means it’s time for the Top 10 Maximum Overbids of the week. As usual, there are some doozies, but nothing I would consider ultimate shockers like a few of the last weekly Top 10’s we’ve seen. The number one spot goes to the “Contractor’s Special” on Nevada in Bernal Heights that fetched 65% over (totally in line with market sales price, and not easy to price this type of property). The number 10 spot goes to my clients that finally won after so many years searching – 538 Baker in NOPA that was “only” 32% over asking and the winner out of 15 other offers, two of which were actually higher than ours and all cash. We had a loan. But we “won”.

Anyhow, on with the show. The Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco this past week:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
270 Nevada St 1/1.00/N/A 14 $530,000 $876,000 65.28%
866 Cayuga Ave 4/3.00/N/A 20 $928,000 $1,380,000 48.71%
27 Day St 3/1.00/N/A 43 $895,000 $1,310,000 46.37%
1271 15th Ave 1273 4/3.50/ 13 $1,795,000 $2,550,000 42.06%
307 Parker Ave 3/2.00/N/A 13 $1,250,000 $1,710,000 36.80%
25 Miraloma Dr 3/2.00/N/A 10 $1,050,000 $1,420,000 35.24%
1150 Holloway Ave 2/1.00/N/A 35 $889,000 $1,200,000 34.98%
320 Castenada Ave 3/1.50/N/A 26 $1,695,000 $2,250,000 32.74%
471 Hickory St 2/1.00/N/A 5 $1,060,000 $1,400,000 32.08%
538 Baker 2/1.50/N/A 11 $948,000 $1,250,000 31.86%

On a side note, one of my listings will hopefully be closing today, and believe me when I say we knocked it out of the park. Will we make the Top 10? No, but maybe we’ll scratch into the Top 20.

If you’re curious what your property might sell for, give me a shout.

Have a great weekend!

-Top 20 Overbids Delivered to Your Door (Inbox) [sfnewsletter.com]
-Are Overbids A Result Of Intentional Underpricing? It’s Competitive Pricing [theFrontSteps]
-Top 20 Underbids [sfnewsletter.com]

Condo Trends

San Francisco Condominium Prices Increase 19% YOY

Below, and attached, you will find the recent condominium sales report from the Mark Company, one of the leaders in new development sales in San Francisco. They have a keen eye on all things new construction, high rise, and luxury that is popping up around town, and they are behind many of the sales offices you might be visiting. To say they know the high rise market in San Francisco would be an understatement. They are truly the front lines, so have a look.

APRIL 2014 SAN FRANCISCO CONDOMINIUM PRICES INCREASE 19 PERCENT OVER PREVIOUS YEAR
The Mark Company Trend Sheet Tracks New Construction and Resale Market Trends

San Francisco – May 19, 2014 – San Francisco condominium prices rose 19 percent in April 2014 over the previous year, according to the Condominium Pricing Index released today.

The Mark Company Condominium Pricing Index for April was $1,115 per square foot, which is up 8 percent from March. New construction inventory was 45 percent lower than a year ago, and down 1 percent from the previous month with only 136 units now available.

‘The Condominium Pricing Index underwent by far its largest single month gain this year, building on an already strong market in San Francisco caused by low inventory and extremely strong demand,’ notes Erin Kennelly, senior director of research, The Mark Company. ‘However, a surge of new condominium projects scheduled to come online this year may indicate an easing of the city’s inventory crunch.’

The Condominium Pricing Index, part of the firm’s monthly Trend Sheet, represents the price per square foot of a new 10th floor, 1,000-square-foot condominium. It is based on recent sales data, and uses a proprietary quantitative method to measure trends in market demand. It tracks the value of a new construction condominium without the volatility of inventory changes.

The Mark Company Penthouse Pricing Index, which applies the same methodology to a new 30th floor, 2,000-square-foot condominium, was $1,915 per square foot in April, up 19 percent year over year.

The condominium price per square foot was $927 for resales, up 7 percent from March 2014 and up 19 percent year over year, according to The Mark Company Trend Sheet for San Francisco. In addition, there were 307 condominium resales in San Francisco in April, 259 active condominium listings representing less than one month of inventory, and 155 pending condominium listings.”
markcotrendsheet

With what little inventory there is all across the city, versus what incredible demand remains, these numbers should come as no surprise.

As always, I’m here to help if you have any questions, or would like to buy or sell in any luxury high rise tower in San Francisco.

-The Mark Company Trend Sheet (pdf)

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San Francisco “Soft Story” Retrofit Advisory – Some Details

I get a few questions from time to time about Earthquake retrofitting, liquefaction zones, when is the next quake going to be, and so on and so forth. The answer to all of those questions is the same, “I don’t have the answers, but there are other people who can help, and I’m happy to connect you.” In fact, I did a post a while back and it’s still the most visited post on this site, ever (actually, Sexiest Realtor Contest still holds that title), so if you’re on the hunt for more earthquake info, have a look: San Francisco Neighborhoods prone to Liquefaction and Earthquake Induced Landslides

San Francisco has introduced new law called the Mandatory Soft Story Retrofit Ordinance or Mandatory Wood Frame Retrofit Program, directly affecting wood-frame structures, containing five or more residential units, having two or more stories over a “soft” or “weak” story, and permitted for construction prior to January 1, 1978. In case you missed that:

  • Wood frame construction (Type V), and
  • Application of permit for original construction was prior to January 1, 1978, and
  • Five or more residential units, and
  • Two or more stories over a basement or underfloor area that has any portion extending above grade, and
  • A soft story condition that has not been seismically strengthened to the standards set forth in the ordinance.
  • So where can you get a list and find out if you, or the building you’re looking to buy is on it? According to the City and County of San Francisco website

    There is currently NO, and has never been an official list of “unsafe” properties. Until a licensed design professional has done a building assessment, there is no such information on any specific building.

    However, there is a list, the “City believes, to the best of our knowledge, to be within the scope of the Mandatory Seismic Retrofit Ordinance.”, and that list can be found here www.sfdbi.org/softstory, or more specifically on this updated spreadsheet of addresses located here: Soft Story Noticing Pool
    and there is this map to help you ballpark your building:
    softstorymapimage
    Okay, so how does this apply to you, the buyer or seller of San Francisco real estate?

    Simply put, when you purchase a property that might fit this bill, or have a property you plan to sell (disclose, disclose, disclose) expect to receive the following notice as part of the San Francisco Association of Realtors cover your ass program, and keep in mind, there may be some serious expenses headed your way if your building falls under the above mentioned criteria:
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    2224jackson

    Pacific Heights Property Fetches $1,706,000 Over Asking

    You read that correctly, 2224 Jackson Street, a Pacific Heights trophy three unit property listed at $2,095,000, just knocked out last week’s stunner at 2514 Gough (Sold $1.4M over), to take the cake for most insane insanity ever in real estate anywhere, ever, by selling for $1,706,000 over asking price, or a grand total of $3,801,000. It is a vacant multi unit property in one of the best areas of town, but still – that’s nuts.

    That was the winner, but there were more. Second place was a paltry $600,000 over asking- that one got kicked off the list today. See the top 10 Overbids list below.

    Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
    2224 Jackson St 2-4 Units 13 $2,095,000 $3,801,000 81.43%
    1783 Noe St 2/1.00/N/A 24 $1,195,000 $1,705,000 42.68%
    390 Franconia St 2/1.00/N/A 6 $895,000 $1,262,375 41.05%
    239 Judah St 3/2.00/N/A 27 $1,199,000 $1,661,000 38.53%
    2200 Lyon St 3/2.50/N/A 19 $2,100,000 $2,900,000 38.10%
    141 2nd Ave 3/3.50/N/A 9 $1,900,000 $2,600,000 36.84%
    3700 Folsom St 2/2.00/N/A 12 $1,049,000 $1,425,000 35.84%
    79 Everson St 3/2.50/N/A 24 $1,195,000 $1,610,000 34.73%
    5725 Diamond Heights Blvd 4/3.00/N/A 8 $1,595,000 $2,139,250 34.12%
    727 35th Ave 5/4.50/N/A 13 $1,525,000 $2,025,000 32.79%

    I need a drink. You?

    203guerrero

    That Crooked House On The Corner Of Guerrero And 14th Is For Sale – 203 Guerrero

    In case you’ve driven/ridden by this place and thought you’d like to have a look inside, it’s your lucky day – 203 Guerrero just hit the market, and it’s pretty damn sweet.
    203guerrero

    203guerrerobath

    203guerreroroof

    Modern to the core, and a perfect place to see and be seen (if you’re into that type of thing), this stunner of a 3 bed, 3 bath condo (not a single family) could be yours for the very low, never sell at this price in a million years, price of $1,699,000. Don’t walk, run. It’s awesome. It has a rooftop deck with hot tub smack dab in the heart of the Mission (the heart is known to wander) for Chrissakes! Oh yeah, and Four Barrel is just down the street.

    -203 Guerrero Listing Details [The Goods]

    San Francisco New-Housing Construction Trends

    San Francisco New-Housing Construction Trends

    Within its 47 square mile envelope, San Francisco is already
    the 2nd most densely populated city in the United States,
    and it’s growing denser, more affluent and more expensive.

    May 2014 report with 13 custom charts

    The following charts are mostly based on the San Francisco Planning Department’s excellent Housing Inventory and Pipeline reports, which can be accessed using the links at the bottom of this article. Quotes below are excerpted from these reports.

    Packed with information, the data in one report section will not always agree perfectly with that in another – due to the multiple sources of data used by the Planning Department – and this is reflected in our charts as well. In the complex, lengthy process of application and review, public hearings (and, lately, ballot proposals), revisions, entitlement, permitting, construction and completion, how and when a project is counted may vary. Housing units are being built and being removed, and there are so many types: rental or sale, market rate or affordable, social-project housing or luxury condominiums.

    Last but not least, this landscape is in constant flux: new projects, plan changes, and shifts in economic and political realities. Everything below is simply a good faith estimate. The basic reality is that San Francisco, after its recent 2008-2012 new-construction slump, is now experiencing a building boom. So far, however, it has not been able to keep up with population growth and rising buyer/renter demand.

     

    New construction authorized typically will not show up as housing units completed until later years. And, of course, a developer can decide not to build after authorization if market circumstances change. The post-2008 drop in authorizations is clearly illustrated here.

    “Some of the larger projects completed in 2013 include: 1190 Mission Street (355 market-rate units and 63 affordable units), Rincon Green (277 market rate units and 49 affordable units), Nema (279 market rate units and 38 affordable units).”

    “Very large projects (200 units or more) filed in 2013 and are under Planning Department review include: Mission Rock (1,500 units); 150 Van Ness Avenue (429 units); 41 Tehama Street (398 units); 1066 Market (330 units); 950 Market Street (316 units); and 1301 16th Street (276 units).”

    ————————————————–

    A glance at the recent past, the present and the possible future of new housing construction in the city. New projects are continually entering and moving through the pipeline, and existing plans may be changed or even abandoned.

    “There are currently 857 projects in the pipeline. Of these, 74 percent are exclusively residential and 17 percent are mixed-use projects with both residential and commercial components. Only 8 percent of projects are non-residential developments. A net total of 50,400 new housing units would be added to the city’s housing stock according to current data. Around 18 percent of all projects, representing 6,000 net added housing units and 2,750,000 sq. ft. of commercial space, are under construction. Around 20 percent of projects (with another 4,200 net units and 3.8 million sq. ft. of commercial space) have received building permit approvals. As of the time of writing, some may have moved to the construction phase.”
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