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Mission To Millennium | SF’s Top 10 Underbids of the Week

The top underbid of the week goes to an Outer Mission single family home that (dare we say) needs a bit of work. Listed for $699,000 and sold for $575,000 after 62 days on the market. According to our data from last week, single family homes continue to take up the majority of the top 10 underbid slots: 50% single family homes, 30% multi-units, and 20% condo.

As we get into the winter months, we are seeing luxury homes cooling down but affordable homes remaining competitive. One other notable Underbid is this wonderful Millennium Tower residence with million dollar water and landmark views on both sides of the Bay. Listed at $4.588M and sold for $4.18M after 122 days. Still a win, IMO.

As for the rest, here you go:

Address BR/BA/Units List Price Sold Price Underbid
2220 Cayuga Avenue 1/1/1 $699,000 $575,000 -17.74 %
161-165 Cook Street 2-4 Units $2,395,000 $2,150,000 -10.23 %
2287 16th Avenue 4/2/2 $1,388,000 $1,250,000 -9.94 %
18 Kronquist Court 4/2/1 $1,899,000 $1,725,000 -9.16 %
301 Mission Street #49D 2/3/2 $4,588,000 $4,180,000 -8.89 %
78 Gladys Street 3/2/0 $1,195,000 $1,100,000 -7.95 %
1437 47th Avenue 1437A 2-4 Units $1,275,000 $1,175,000 -7.84 %
2829 Pierce Street 2831 2-4 Units $2,970,000 $2,750,000 -7.41 %
3260 Baker Street 3/2/2 $2,999,000 $2,800,000 -6.64 %
2040 Franklin Street #506 0/1/1 $575,000 $540,000 -6.09 %

As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market, your home, homes in your area, or real estate referrals around the world, I am here to help. Just give me a shout by choosing any of the “contact” options all over this site.

Image Source: SocketSite.com

Maximum Overbid Of The Week | “Corpse House” Wins | HazMat Suit Sold Separately

It’s the house that had not only a hoarder, but a mummified corpse father of said hoarder that takes top honors this week. Originally listed for $928,000, 152 4th Ave buyers jumped at this house, put it in contract for $1,029,500, and sent it to court for overbids. With the hoarding daughter hospitalized and hopefully getting help, 152 4th Ave now has new owners and a final sales price —$1,560,000—HazMat suit sold separately.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
152 4th Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 38 $1,029,500 $1,560,000 51.53%
175 Boutwell Street 1/1.00/N/A 14 $399,000 $561,000 40.60%
1440 15th Avenue 4/2.00/N/A 18 $998,000 $1,350,000 35.27%
648 Felton 4/1.00/N/A 14 $749,000 $1,008,000 34.58%
160 Boutwell Street 1/1.00/N/A 15 $399,950 $535,000 33.77%
37 Miguel Street 2/1.00/2 13 $899,000 $1,200,000 33.48%
3974 18th Street 2/1.50/ 13 $1,249,000 $1,650,000 32.11%
25 Sierra Street 3/2.50/505 12 $1,299,000 $1,701,078 30.95%
178 Holladay Avenue 2/2.00/N/A 12 $995,000 $1,300,000 30.65%
119 Madrid Street 3/2.50/N/A 18 $799,000 $1,038,000 29.91%

In case you track these, we changed the feed and it now pulls weekly top 10, rather than past two weeks. So check back every Friday.

Have a great weekend!

152 4th Ave, San Francisco [Property Detail Page]
New Listings, Recent Sales, Top 20 Overbids, Top 20 Underbids, Stalefish [the Goods]
Corpse Found Inside Hoarder’s Home [SocketSite]
Creepy Lake District “Mummy House” Returns for $928k [Curbed]
1793 Sanchez St, For Sale, Glen Park [theFrontSteps]

Maximum Overbid Of The Week| 80% Over Off Lake

21827thWhat more can you say…the marketing remarks for 218 27th Ave say it all, “Contractors Special with Bay View from front steps. 25X120 lot; occupancy classification R3 per 3R Report; Zoning District per 3R Report RM1; This is an AS IS sale. Bring your contractors and hard hats. Laundry and 3rd bedroom is not warranted.” Listed $895,000 sold for $1,612,000 or 80% over asking. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
218 27th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 12 $895,000 $1,612,000 80.11%
676 Capp Street 3/1.50/N/A 12 $1,300,000 $2,300,000 76.92%
27 Cutler Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 20 $569,000 $880,000 54.66%
1400 35th Avenue 1402 2-4 Units 14 $799,000 $1,220,000 52.69%
2219 25th Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 13 $949,000 $1,380,000 45.42%
850 35th Avenue 2/1.50/N/A 38 $950,000 $1,380,000 45.26%
2080 14th Avenue 3/1.00/N/A 13 $899,000 $1,302,080 44.84%
12 Carson Street 3/2.00/N/A 10 $1,649,000 $2,260,000 37.05%
51 Somerset Street 3/1.00/N/A 10 $849,000 $1,160,000 36.63%
136 Bradford Street 4/2.00/N/A 43 $899,000 $1,225,000 36.26%

I share this information so you, the buyer and seller, can get used to the idea that San Francisco real estate is not normal. I also share it for myself and my colleagues to support our claim when we go on listing presentations that there is no such thing as “you priced it too low”. You cannot price too low in San Francisco. You can definitely price too high though.

04-alex-clark-portrait-citybg-2x3If you’re thinking about selling, give me a shout.
Alexander Clark
Paragon Real Estate Group
415-254-5351
alexclark@gmail.com
sfnewsletter.com will be published today around 12pm with updated top 20 Overbids, top 20 Underbids, Stalefish, New Listings, and Recent Sales. You still have time to sign up.

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Home Sales by San Francisco District and Price

These charts show the breakdown of San Francisco home sales as reported to the city’s Multiple Listing Service, year to date 2015. We picked this period, because generally speaking prices appreciated again in late winter/ early spring 2015. These analyses are sorted by city districts and neighborhoods by the number of transactions in different sales-price segments. Note that median sales prices will change every time the time period or neighborhoods included in an analysis change.

The first chart below the San Francisco neighborhood map is an overview for the entire city.

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These 2 charts below track San Francisco luxury home sales by price range and neighborhood. Rather arbitrarily, we designate the luxury segment as those condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1,500,000 or more, and those houses selling for $2,000,000 and above. Considering the appreciation of the market in recent years, we may have to adjust those thresholds soon.

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As always, if you have further questions, just shout.

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San Francisco Real Estate Market Mid-Year Report

Home Price Appreciation Rates; Prices, Cost & Affordability;
Dollar per Square Foot; Interest Rates; Sales Price to List Price Ratio

Bay Area Appreciation Rates since 2011
Combined House & Condo Median Sales Prices

BayArea-Median-Price-Increases_2011-2015YTD_by-County

Besides the general economic recovery, there are other factors in different counties affecting home price increases over the past 4 years: 1) the huge decline in distressed property sales in those counties severely affected during the downturn (such as Solano, Contra Costa & Alameda), 2) the dramatic surge in luxury home sales (such as in SF, San Mateo & Marin), 3) increasing luxury condo construction (SF), and 4) the effect of the high-tech boom in employment and wealth, which radiates out from San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

The higher priced counties, led by San Francisco and San Mateo, saw the largest dollar increases in median prices since 2011 – $400,000 to $500,000 – but counties rebounding from the distressed property crisis often experienced the biggest percentage jumps. The city of Oakland, benefiting from both the decline in distressed sales and being the closest, most affordable option to high San Francisco housing prices saw by far the largest percentage increase: 133%.

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San Francisco Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood

Note that median prices within the city are also affected by a variety of factors beyond simple increases in fair market value.

SF House Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

We’re almost positive that we recommended that everyone buy at least one median-priced Pacific Heights mansion in 2011 at the bargain-basement price of $3,225,000. If you had followed this (imaginary) advice, your home would have appreciated by $2.77 million. However, on a pure return on investment basis, you would have done better to snap up a few median-priced houses in the Mission, which appreciated by an incredible 143%. It should be noted that both of these neighborhoods have comparatively few house sales as compared to, say, the Sunset or Bernal Heights. Low supply is often one factor in high appreciation rates.

SF Condo Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

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For condos, Russian Hill led the way in dollar median price appreciation and Yerba Buena was tops in percentage price increase since the bottom of the market in 2011.

Over the past 4 years, houses have appreciated a bit more than condos in the city, 81% to 73%, and that is probably due to the fact that houses are becoming the scarcer commodity: While thousands of new condos are now being built each year, new house construction can usually be counted on 2 or 3 hands.

For prevailing SF median house and condo prices, our interactive map of neighborhood values can be found here:SF Neighborhood Home-Price Map

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Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
by San Francisco Neighborhood

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Increasing average dollar per square foot values have been breaking records in neighborhoods throughout San Francisco for the last 2 years. Some of the surge in condo values is explained by the many recently built luxury condo projects – which have been selling at premium dollar per square foot prices – that have been sprouting up around the city.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

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Sales of higher-end houses and condos have been soaring in the city and hit by far their highest number ever in the second quarter. Big jumps in expensive home sales are an important factor behind increases in the overall median sales price.

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Appreciation, Cost & Affordability

Short-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 2012)

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Long-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 1993)

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Inflation & Interested Rate-Adjusted Housing Cost (since 1993)

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The short-term and long-term appreciation charts above are self-explanatory. The Home Cost Trends chart reflects a very approximate calculation of monthly home payment costs (principal, interest, property tax and insurance) adjusted for inflation – i.e. in 1993 dollars – using annual median house sales prices, average annual 30-year interest rates, and assuming a 20% downpayment. The average annual compounding CPI inflation rate fluctuated, but averaged approximately 2.4% over the period, and average annual mortgage rates fluctuated from 8.4% to 3.7% (see chart further below), which had a huge impact on financing costs.

Adjusting for inflation and interest rate changes means that though the median sales price is now far above that of 2007, the monthly housing cost is still a little bit below then. This isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison because it doesn’t take into account that the amount of the 20% downpayment increased significantly over the time period. Still, since ongoing cost is typically an important factor for homebuyers (at least those getting financing), this affords another angle on our market.

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Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

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Over the last 4 years, the big decline in interest rates has largely subsidized the increase in home prices.

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Price Reductions, Sales Prices to List Prices,
and Days on Market

Q2-15_SP-OP_DOM_by-Price-Reduction

In the 2nd quarter, the vast majority of SF home sales sold without prior price reductions; these sold very quickly, at an astounding average of 14.5% over the original list price – clear indications of a white-hot market. For the past 4 years, spring has been by far the most frenzied selling season of the year, and the market usually cools in summer.

There you have it.

Recent Transactions [Alexander Clark]

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Stalefish: You Won’t Believe Your Eyes

There is a little something in our market, of which many buyers are not aware, and many agents overlook. I have long referred to them as “Stalefish“, but others refer to them as “buying opportunity” or “still available property”, or what we named (on theGoods) as the “30+ Club”. What are these, you ask?

They are, quite simply, properties on the market more than 30 days, and darnit if there aren’t quite a few gems out there that I’d love you to buy.

Getting beat up in Noe Valley? Check out 469 Valley:
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This is a 3220 square foot remodeled view home in Noe Valley…and it’s still available! Deck, garden, master suite, it has it all. Listed at $2,989,000.

Not your cup of tea? Check out 27-29 Fountain, also in Noe Valley:
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Previously listed at $2,900,000, this detached Victorian with 4 bedrooms, booming views, decks, parking, yard, and a great location is now $2,600,000! You just saved $300,000. Opportunity knocking right here.

Maybe you don’t like Noe, and you’d rather be in Cole Valley – sorry, nada. But keep checking!

You think Pacific Heights never has anything for you? Think again. This absolutely stunning home at 2701 Broadway is still there:
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“Comprised of five levels encompassing over 16,000 square feet the home includes 7 bedrooms, 7 full baths, and 4 half-baths, plus 2 kitchens, 2 family rooms, 2 offices, 3 rooftop terraces, a basketball/sport court, plus a multitude of rooms for today’s active lifestyle. 2 car garage,” and a bargain price of $39,000,000.

Okay, so maybe $39,000,000 is a bit more than you can handle, and you really don’t like basketball anyway. Maybe surfing is more your thing? Well…you’re in luck. It just so happens this little fish at 2307 40th Ave is still there:
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It’s “beautifully remodeled and updated”, close to the beach, and other “neighborhood conveniences like Walgreens” (huh?), and from what I can tell, very ready to be sold.

So if you’re getting beat out by the hordes of buyers all over the hot new listings, and you have possibly overlooked those homes that weren’t exactly perfect, you might like to give this list another glance. And if you’re an agent, you might like to send this invaluable information to your clients (branded to you, or course).

Whether you call ’em Stalefish, or otherwise, no matter how you slice it, there is opportunity out there in many shapes, sizes, and prices. Prices which, at this point, could be very negotiable.

Time to go fishing!

p.s. Wondering about the home with all the marble columns? It’s available too: 3800 Washington, $17,995,000, and it’s frickin amazing!

Stalefish, 30+ Club, Buying Opportunity: Find it all here
Battle Royale: Cole Valley Versus Noe Valley [theFrontSteps]

[Big Ass Disclaimer: Every property in this post and on the Goods 30+Club is listed as “active” on MLS. All information is deemed to be accurate, but not guaranteed.]

Go Giants!

San Francisco Real Estate Third Quarter Report

San Francisco House & Condo Values
Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales?
Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why?

September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until most close escrow in October and early November. In the meantime, we’ll look at the last 2 quarters.

Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The following 2 charts look at current and longer-term trends in home values. As is common, median house sales prices dropped a bit in the 3rd quarter – this is due mostly to seasonality issues – though condos have held steady for 3 quarters now at $950,000. Dollar per square foot values have continued to increase to new peaks: This metric is particularly being impacted by new-development condo sales, which are breaking dollar per square foot records virtually everyplace they’re being built.

If you wish to drill down on values in very specific city neighborhoods, we recently updated our interactive map, which can be found here: SF Home Price Map

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Where Home Sales Occur at What Prices

Dropping Knowledge: San Francisco Property Pie Chart

I know you’re all like me, you drive around town looking at all the wonderful, insanely expensive property we have here in San Francisco. I know you wish you knew how many of the properties you see were single family homes, how many are condominiums, how many are big ol’ properties of which you’d love to be the landlord (or maybe you already are). My company came up with this nice little pie chart for all y’all. Enjoy:

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Ghosts of Sunset Past: The Moss Flats

Imagine an Outer Sunset made up entirely of sand dunes, streetcars repurposed as oceanfront homes and clubhouses, bohemians having all-night parties that include midnight swims in the icy Pacific and this:

Charles Depew, late of Saginaw, Michigan, built 1626 Great Highway in 1908, minus an architect but likely inspired by Bernard Maybeck. The three-flat building, known as “The Moss Flats,” has survived long enough to join the National Register of Historic Places, decades after the last of its colorful, ramshackle neighbors dissolved into dust. It’s on the market, listed for $1.349 by similarly old San Francisco school agency Barbagelata.

Outside are the maybe-Maybeck-inspired shingles; inside are three two-bedroom tenant-occupied flats decorated in surfer chic:

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Plus ocean views from the top-most unit. Longtime owners, plus longtime rental units, plus longtime exposure to salty ocean air may be a caveat in this case, but assuming the owner of the last standing evidence of Carville has no immediate plans to sell, this is your best chance to get into a pre-Doelger Outer Sunset historic property, steps from the beach and with a steady, proven income flow.

-Article by Larry Rosen: Contributing writer and San Francisco local sharing his thoughts with theFrontSteps.

 

Buyer Testimonial In Russian Hill – Opportunity For Long Term Guests And Corporate Renters, And A Little Scoop On 1177 & 1179 Union Street

Don’t ask me why, but for the past 5 years (at least) I haven’t been asking my clients for testimonials. True to one of my New Year’s resolutions, I’m going to begin gathering as many as I can, and sharing them here. Beginning with this one…

San Francisco is a city littered with real estate agents that look at buyers and sellers as “just another lead” to make money, but Alex is the exceptionally rare breed of real estate agent that just “gets” it.

Alex has helped me purchase two homes and there are two things that set Alex apart from the rest of the pack – patience and commitment. First, Alex was not only willing, but also actively enthusiastic about showing me a broad spectrum of properties while I was still unfocused in my search so that I could educate myself on individual micro-markets. Many agents would have considered this a waste of their time.

Second, once I had started down the negotiation process, Alex was completely committed to my cause – i.e. getting the best deal possible. Even when the 12th hour was nigh, and it looked as if I was about to walk out of what was already a great deal because of some overlooked loose ends on the seller’s part, Alex didn’t pressure me at all to close the transaction. Instead, Alex worked with me to execute an especially well crafted negotiating maneuver that extracted thousands more from the seller.

Well done, Alex.

Thanks Jason! It was a pleasure working with you. I hope your property treats you right.

For anybody interested in a quintessential San Francisco location for your long term guests, US Open of Golf (coming to San Francisco’s Olympic Club this June) or The America’s Cup (coming to our waters 2013) Visitors, or corporate executives, the units will be offered as a VRBO, corporate, and (potentially) long-term rentals. Details are at [temporarily offline].

For details on this transaction, feel free to contact me directly. Essentially, it was/is a two unit building recently converted to a condominium. The units separately were asking $865,000 for the bottom, and $1,065,000 for the top, for a combined $1,930,000. My client was able to get the property for under asking price, even though multiple offers were received.