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San Francisco Single Family Real Estate Appreciation since 2011

The information below is provided by Paragon Real Estate Group, enjoy:

In the last 5 years, San Francisco real estate market rebounded and went crazy hot, but how much did it really appreciate? Below is a great analysis from Paragon that shows you the data using median sales price. This post is specific to houses, the next post is specific to condominiums appreciation.

Median sales price is a very general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. It can be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in the inventory available to purchase, and major changes in the distressed property, luxury home, or new home construction segments. Sometimes median prices fluctuate without any great significance: substantially different groups of homes (larger, smaller, older, newer, etc.) simply sold in different periods. Assessing appreciation by changes in dollar per square foot values, instead of by median sales prices, can sometimes deliver significantly different appreciation rates.

Below the charts is a table with a more comprehensive list of San Francisco neighborhoods, and at the bottom of the page is a neighborhood map.

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The neighborhoods on the table below are grouped by San Francisco Realtor District, some of which contain neighborhoods of relatively similar values and some with highly variable home values.

Generally speaking, the higher the number of sales, the more reliable the statistics: We’ve usually calculated appreciation rates for neighborhoods with at least 24 sales in 2015, but these should still be considered very approximate.

An asterisk signifies a very low a number of annual sales and/or our suspicion that the appreciation calculation would not reflect market reality due to the variety of issues pertaining in the area. In 2011, median sales prices in some areas, especially in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, were badly distorted by distressed property sales (bank and short sales) that didn’t represent fair market values. If this situation applies, the 4-year appreciation rate will jump higher in that neighborhood.

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As is always the case, if you have any questions about the market don’t hesitate to ask.

If you, or anyone you know, are looking to buy or sell San Francisco real estate, take a look at my track record, happy clients, and generally awesome listings and let’s get you sorted.

Dropping In

Maximum Overbid Of The Week | Embrace The Chaos

This home on 43rd Ave just sold $331,000 over asking, and takes this week’s top spot on the top 10 San Francisco Overbids. But let’s look deeper into what’s going on here.

You might be wondering why I chose the amazing picture of pro surfer Damien Hobgood getting burned by some random guy as this week’s featured image to go with the continually insane overbids San Francisco dishes out. Well…it’s significant in many respects (in my mind anyway, so hear me out).

1. Not only does Ocean Beach occasionally get world class surf (word is out, sorry), but it brings the pain, as does our market to many, many, many buyers continually burned by that other buyer that dropped in on them and “stole” their home. And just like waves, there will always be another home come your way, so bite your lip, regroup, focus, don’t get upset, and get the next one.

2. The Avenues are the hottest part of town right now to be selling a Single Family Home, as it is the last frontier where such a home is still attainable under $1.1M (check the stats). You can find these homes in the Outer Sunset, Outer Parkside, and if you’re lucky, the Outer Richmond districts. Miraloma Park is a hidden gem of bargain homes too, but no beach. For you out of towners, Ocean Beach is where San Francisco officially ends, and Pacific Ocean begins (the “Bay” is not). This is our “beach” neighborhood, which at some point will go back to normal programming of fog for months on end, howling onshore winds, and no hipsters cruising on their penny boards to check the surf, because it will be too damn cold and the bikinis will be all covered up.

3.Who still prices a home like this, in a location like that, at $699,000? Seriously John. Seriously.

4. This sale is $331,000 over the asking price, but really, it was underpriced by at least $100,000, so let’s hope all the marketing that goes out around it doesn’t say “I got my clients $331,000 more than they expected!” We all know it was expected to go over, and I guarantee if they only got one offer at $699,000 they never would have sold it. At 1200 square feet, or $807/psft, some might even argue it is a steal.

5. The photo caption on the Surfing Magazine article sums it up best with what people THINK is happening in San Francisco real estate, “A quick reminder that the surfer closest to the peak of the wave, or in the barrel, has the right of way. Damien Hobgood and some tech nerd“. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a great caption and it’s definitely evident in the water, but it’s not just the techies with all the cash. I’ve been telling my clients and readers this for years. There is an insane amount of money from all walks of life in this city and greater Bay Area. It’s easy to point the finger at one group and make assumptions, but I guarantee you, your assumptions about the techies and our real estate market are wrong.

And before you go blaming the techies for your lack of wave domination, or missing out on your dream home, reconsider that GoPro strapped to your board, the Uber you just took to work, that baby picture you just HAD to share on Instagram, and all the other tech channels you can’t live without whether you’ve been living here 40 years, or 4. The city is a changing. Embrace the Chaos.

[Song: Pa Lante by Ozomatli; Album: Embrace the Chaos…turn it up!]

With all of that said, the Top 10:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
2471 43rd Avenue 2/1.00/N/A 19 $699,000 $1,030,000 47.35%
1650 Florida Street 3/1.00/ 42 $695,000 $970,000 39.57%
1099 23rd Street 1/1.50/1 20 $599,000 $801,000 33.72%
136 Seville Street 2/1.00/N/A 33 $699,000 $890,000 27.32%
2769 Union Street 3/2.00/ 13 $2,499,000 $3,130,000 25.25%
4500 California Street 2/2.00/ 38 $980,000 $1,210,000 23.47%
164 Parker Avenue 2/1.00/B 31 $995,000 $1,210,000 21.61%
681 Panorama Drive 3/2.00/N/A 28 $999,000 $1,204,000 20.52%
204 Anderson Street 2/2.00/N/A 13 $1,189,000 $1,425,500 19.89%
2270 9th Avenue 4/3.50/N/A 8 $1,795,000 $2,150,000 19.78%

Have a great weekend! Looking to buy or sell Bay Area Real Estate? Look no further, and give me a shout.

Image Source for Surfers [Surfing Magazine]

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San Francisco Real Estate Market Mid-Year Report

Home Price Appreciation Rates; Prices, Cost & Affordability;
Dollar per Square Foot; Interest Rates; Sales Price to List Price Ratio

Bay Area Appreciation Rates since 2011
Combined House & Condo Median Sales Prices

BayArea-Median-Price-Increases_2011-2015YTD_by-County

Besides the general economic recovery, there are other factors in different counties affecting home price increases over the past 4 years: 1) the huge decline in distressed property sales in those counties severely affected during the downturn (such as Solano, Contra Costa & Alameda), 2) the dramatic surge in luxury home sales (such as in SF, San Mateo & Marin), 3) increasing luxury condo construction (SF), and 4) the effect of the high-tech boom in employment and wealth, which radiates out from San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

The higher priced counties, led by San Francisco and San Mateo, saw the largest dollar increases in median prices since 2011 – $400,000 to $500,000 – but counties rebounding from the distressed property crisis often experienced the biggest percentage jumps. The city of Oakland, benefiting from both the decline in distressed sales and being the closest, most affordable option to high San Francisco housing prices saw by far the largest percentage increase: 133%.

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San Francisco Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood

Note that median prices within the city are also affected by a variety of factors beyond simple increases in fair market value.

SF House Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-House-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

We’re almost positive that we recommended that everyone buy at least one median-priced Pacific Heights mansion in 2011 at the bargain-basement price of $3,225,000. If you had followed this (imaginary) advice, your home would have appreciated by $2.77 million. However, on a pure return on investment basis, you would have done better to snap up a few median-priced houses in the Mission, which appreciated by an incredible 143%. It should be noted that both of these neighborhoods have comparatively few house sales as compared to, say, the Sunset or Bernal Heights. Low supply is often one factor in high appreciation rates.

SF Condo Appreciation Rates in Dollars & Percentages

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Appreciation_Dollars

2011-2015_SF-Median-Condo-Price-Percentage-Appreciation

For condos, Russian Hill led the way in dollar median price appreciation and Yerba Buena was tops in percentage price increase since the bottom of the market in 2011.

Over the past 4 years, houses have appreciated a bit more than condos in the city, 81% to 73%, and that is probably due to the fact that houses are becoming the scarcer commodity: While thousands of new condos are now being built each year, new house construction can usually be counted on 2 or 3 hands.

For prevailing SF median house and condo prices, our interactive map of neighborhood values can be found here:SF Neighborhood Home-Price Map

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Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
by San Francisco Neighborhood

7-15_House_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

7-15_Condo_AvgDolSqFt_by-SF-Neighborhood

Increasing average dollar per square foot values have been breaking records in neighborhoods throughout San Francisco for the last 2 years. Some of the surge in condo values is explained by the many recently built luxury condo projects – which have been selling at premium dollar per square foot prices – that have been sprouting up around the city.

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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Q2-2015_SF-Luxury-Home-Sales_by_Qtr

Sales of higher-end houses and condos have been soaring in the city and hit by far their highest number ever in the second quarter. Big jumps in expensive home sales are an important factor behind increases in the overall median sales price.

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Appreciation, Cost & Affordability

Short-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 2012)

Median_SFD-Condo_by-Qtr_Short-term

Long-Term Median Price Appreciation (since 1993)

Median-Price_Sep-SF-SFD-Cndo_1993-Present_V2

Inflation & Interested Rate-Adjusted Housing Cost (since 1993)

1993-Present_SF-PITI-Cost_Inflation-Adjusted

The short-term and long-term appreciation charts above are self-explanatory. The Home Cost Trends chart reflects a very approximate calculation of monthly home payment costs (principal, interest, property tax and insurance) adjusted for inflation – i.e. in 1993 dollars – using annual median house sales prices, average annual 30-year interest rates, and assuming a 20% downpayment. The average annual compounding CPI inflation rate fluctuated, but averaged approximately 2.4% over the period, and average annual mortgage rates fluctuated from 8.4% to 3.7% (see chart further below), which had a huge impact on financing costs.

Adjusting for inflation and interest rate changes means that though the median sales price is now far above that of 2007, the monthly housing cost is still a little bit below then. This isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison because it doesn’t take into account that the amount of the 20% downpayment increased significantly over the time period. Still, since ongoing cost is typically an important factor for homebuyers (at least those getting financing), this affords another angle on our market.

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Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

1993-Present_30-Year_Interest-Rates_Comp

Over the last 4 years, the big decline in interest rates has largely subsidized the increase in home prices.

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Price Reductions, Sales Prices to List Prices,
and Days on Market

Q2-15_SP-OP_DOM_by-Price-Reduction

In the 2nd quarter, the vast majority of SF home sales sold without prior price reductions; these sold very quickly, at an astounding average of 14.5% over the original list price – clear indications of a white-hot market. For the past 4 years, spring has been by far the most frenzied selling season of the year, and the market usually cools in summer.

There you have it.

Recent Transactions [Alexander Clark]

15thkit

$1.6 to $2.2 – $1.2 to $1.6 – $1.6 to $2.3…San Francisco Overbids Continue With No End In Sight

Although I’ve been out and about and trying to enjoy summer, clearly the Overbid factory didn’t get the memo. Check out the most recent craziness, including one architect/owner designed house on 15th Ave that sold almost 40% over asking! To all of those that think things slow down in Summer…think again.

Top 10 Overbids for San Francisco:

Address BR/BA/Units DOM List Price Sold Price Overbid
414 Missouri St 4/3.00/N/A 6 $950,000 $1,410,000 48.42%
671 Alvarado St 2/1.00/ 12 $899,000 $1,305,000 45.16%
1426 6th Ave 3/3.00/N/A 13 $1,595,000 $2,300,000 44.20%
609 Precita Ave 2/2.00/N/A 42 $825,000 $1,175,000 42.42%
531 Sanchez St 2/1.00/N/A 8 $995,000 $1,400,000 40.70%
2570 Folsom St 4/3.00/N/A 14 $1,595,000 $2,210,000 38.56%
45 Richland Ave 3/1.50/N/A 10 $650,000 $900,500 38.54%
2628 15th Ave 3/1.50/N/A 12 $849,000 $1,175,000 38.40%
656 Arguello Blvd 2/2.00/3 21 $799,000 $1,104,713 38.26%
80 Jersey St 3/2.00/ 14 $1,195,000 $1,650,000 38.08%

Want the top 20, sign up for sfnewsletter @ sfnewsletter.com.

[Update: Business Insider Just Shared 13 Properties all Selling For $1M or more over…]

Have a great weekend!

Parkside Center Patio Home Hits The Market, Don’t Delay!

If you’ve been looking for a home in the Parkside neighborhood of San Francisco, I have just the one for you, 2186 33rd Ave @ Rivera ($795,000).

This home has been elegantly remodeled and meticulously maintained throughout. There is a large Living Room and Formal Dining Room, which opens into a wonderful center patio with skylights that seal off completely enabling you to enjoy the tranquility even on a rainy day. The living room has a corner fireplace and oak floors. The Beautiful kitchen has been wonderfully remodeled with Carrara Marble counters, cherry floor, stainless appliances and skylight. There are two spacious bedrooms and a full bath upstairs and large Master Suite with Full Bath downstairs. Whether you use the downstairs room as a master suite or office or media room, you can easily step outside into the lovely garden, or simply open the doors and let fresh air in. It is truly a wonderful home in an excellent location, that could be yours.

The home will be open for viewing every Sunday from 2-4pm until it is sold, and is available for private showings by appointment.

What are you waiting for! It’s not everyday a center patio home like this hits the market.

2186 33rd Ave: 3bed, 2 bath, 1 parking, $795,000 [MLS]

An apples to apples in Sunnyside? It looks that way.

519 Foerster sold for over asking and 75K more than it last sold for in 2005.

(Here’s the link, 519 Foerster not [editor is back in town] cleaned up):

It looks like there was a paint job, and maybe a new floor in the kitchen, maybe not. The 2005 listing advertises a “new home.”

This would seem to go along with the theory I and a number of others subscribe to. The “pockets” theory that there are neighborhoods throughout the city that continue to see appreciation. One of the most surprising and most glaring is the Inner Richmond more parkside properties. But I think Sunnyside/Miraloma Park is another. This one fetched 616 a foot.

— Kenneth (KJ) Kohlmyer a k a der fluj

Reader Reports: Parkside home for $1.4M? (2560 22nd Ave)

From our reader:

Is any house in the central sunset worth 1.4 million? The average price in the central sunset 800k -900k.

Please take a look at 2960 22nd Ave, San Francisco which just came on the market.

2560 22nd Ave (before)

…and the kitchen:

Kitchen before

We must first say that this home is technically located in the Parkside, near Stern Grove and that area is quite nice. Having not actually been in the home, we can’t speak to the price, but if the pictures are any indication….oh wait, those are the before shots from the last sale in December 2007 at $900,000.

Read on for the after….

Crime on the rise in Bernal Heights?

It seems to be the week of getting edumucated on theFrontSteps. First chickens, now rising crime in Bernal Heights? We have no factual evidence to support what we’re saying, but the information has come to us from a very reliable and trustworthy source. We’re hoping you (the reader) can shed some light on the matter. We know some of you in particular might have better knowledge on the matter than we, so please share.

It also begs the question, could this make Bernal go bust? (And it reminds us, we’re about due for another Battle Royale.)

Isolated Panic amongst some San Francisco Realtors, or something larger?

Recently, we’ve been contacted by more than a dozen Realtors asking if we could “plug” their listings. Typically, this is not something we do as it defeats the purpose, honesty, and transparency of this blog, but we got to thinking…why not? We could make a little $$ from it, and help get the word out about some pretty cool properties that happen to still be available. Truth be told, a lot of “tips” from “tipsters” are essentially “plugs” anyway. Right?

Well, don’t worry, we’re not going to start whoring ourselves out…yet. But what has us thinking is the increase in requests to do so for properties that have only been on the market 2-6 weeks. In any other part of the country having a listing for 4 months is normal, and panic usually sets in around the 6th month that it is not sold, so why such alarm after 2-6 weeks? San Francisco Realtors are so accustomed to homes flying off the shelf, and when they don’t…they PANIC! Remember, a listing isn’t a “Stalefish” until 100 days have passed, so why all the panic?

We still say it all comes down to pricing, pricing, pricing, and location, location, location, and there is no need for panic across the board. We’re still hearing many more reports of multiple offers and properties flying off the shelf than we are of properties sitting, but is the national trend finally starting to hit San Francisco on a broader level, not just the southern districts? We’ve heard reports of homes in the Inner Richmond, Cole Valley, Westwood Park, Bernal Heights, Inner Sunset, Noe Valley (Gasp!), Parkside, Potrero Hill, and a few other nabes getting a bit stale. Properties that previously would have sold in the blink of an eye. So what gives?

We want your thoughts, especially you Realtors. Go ahead and comment anonymously, we won’t tell. And we certainly hope to hear from the Fluj, who, in case you missed it, we caught.

[If you’d like to check out what we’ve written about other neighborhoods in San Francisco, look to the right hand column and “Browse Site by Category”.]

San Francisco Oil Spill…doing our part

This post has absolutely nothing to do with real estate, unless of course you’re looking to buy a home down at Ocean Beach (Outer Sunset/Outer Parkside), because of our pristine beaches and ideal beach weather, but we thought we’d get the word out. Things won’t be the same down there for a long time. We pulled this quote from the local surf report, and figured we’d pass it along:

…there is so much oil on Ocean Beach right now, it is going to take thousands of people, thousands of hours to clean it all up. I just spent 5 hours picking up globs of oil and believe me, the public is needed here. Make no mistake, once you get out here you will realize this an an environmental catastrophe right before our eyes right in our home break. The sooner the oil gets off the beach, the less gets washed back into the ocean and the sooner this will get better. As it is, it’s going to be weeks before anyone can surf out here. So please send a message to surfers to come and help clean up our beloved beach. Here’s how to do it: 1. Wear old clothes and shoes–they will get oil on them and most likely be ruined. 2. Get some latex (i.e., doctor’s) gloves or heavy duty dishwashing rubber gloves. 3. Get a trash bag or, even better, put a trash bag inside of a 5 gallon bucket. 4. Go to the beach and pick up the globs of oil. The globs range in size from smaller than a dime to as big as a jellyfish. The best time to pick them up is when the globs are lying on the wet smooth sand so you can skim the globs together and, because the sand is wet, it doesn’t stick to the oil. So this means the best time is medium high tide dropping through low tide through about medium tide. However, if you can’t make it then, just go any time as the magnitude of this problem is HUGE and there has been a very limited response so far. Thanks for your help in getting out the message. Other activists recommend bringing a kitty litter scooper to pick up the globs of oil. Bring as many kitty litter scoopers as possible! DO NOT PICK UP BIRDS OR OTHER ANIMALS COATED WITH OIL!! BRING A FULLY CHARGED CELL PHONE TO THE BEACH WITH THE FOLLOWING PHONE NUMBER ENTERED : IF ANIMALS IN TROUBLE SPOTTED, CALL 877.823.6926

We have to ask, where do you trash the oil you collect?

As if it isn’t hard enough finding good surf here, and suffering though cold miserable, foggy Summers to arrive at Fall (the best time of year) and we can’t even get in the water.

Grassroots effort to clean Ocean Beach [Kill the Spill, sfoilspill.blogspot.com]

SF Gov. Oil Spill Information [sfgov.org, the official stuff]

Craigslist posting on how to clean up oil [Craigslist]

Baykeeper.org [website and link from Scott at Redfin…thanks!]

theFrontSteps is not involved in organizing any volunteers and warns that any help you provide is at your own risk. Volunteers at Ocean Beach are reporting health problems: difficulty breathing, burning eyes, sore throats, headaches and dizziness. This is very nasty, toxic stuff that is on the beaches. theFrontSteps is providing this information solely as a service to the community. This type of activity could be illegal, and we do not in any way shape or form take responsibility for your actions.